Tennis Tips - December 29 - January 6

[Stevecw]

7 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

This one I belive a lot in. I've seen Guido lose matches like this before.

Price is already way down on Paddy Power since 20 mins ago when I put on €25! Must be a lot of people reading these tips!!

Edited January 4, 2019 by Stevecw

[four-leaf]

Christopher O'connell to beat Guido Andreozzi at 2.30 with Unibet

This is what you get on O'connell now. That 3.25 is long gone and probably wont be available again unless Christopher goes behind at the start of first set.

[four-leaf]

Tomas Berdych to beat Marco Cecchinato at 1.46 with Unibet

Not mutch of a price on this one but I missed RBA to beat Nole so I'm going for this in compensation instead.

Edited January 4, 2019 by four-leaf

[EvgeniM]

Hello everyone and thank you for what all of you are doing here.

As some of you I also take the Berdych outright Win in ATP Doha as @opole suggested. 

So in the light of the semifinal events my question is should I cash out for a crazy profit or should I wait this bet. Do you think Berdych will beat Agut? Sure he is favourite but is it worth the risk?

[opole]

On 30.12.2018 at 5:17 PM, opole said:

Tomas Berdych to win ATP Doha @ 66.16 Pinnacle 1/10

First thing is Berdych avoiding Djokovic till the possible final.

His half is not that hard imo.

Thiem, Goffin, Cecchinato, Verdasco are beatable opponents.

Odds are looking reat. As i wrote he has a good history there.

So...we got it. 

Berdych reached the final. Djokovic hasn't.

Berdych will play Bautista tomorrow in the final and i think it's pretty much an 50/50 match, maybe slight advatange for the Spaniard but RBA had a very tough match today and we'll see how much he has left. Berdych looked great throughout the tournament so far.

I will hedge my Berdych outright logically. 

Roberto Bautista Agut @ 1.78 Betclic 10/10

IMPORTANT: This is no value at all and i do not think it's a good bet at those odds but i will try to catch my Berdych to win Doha bet with this so do not bet on it if you haven't bet on Berdych to win Doha.

Edited January 4, 2019 by opole

[CzechPunter]

@EvgeniM Hi and welcome! Good luck whether you do what opole suggests or not!

@four-leaf As a rule, I'm always referring only to the bets I've posted here when talking about pluses and minuses, I think it would be wrong to do otherwise.

[opole]

1 hour ago, EvgeniM said:

Hello everyone and thank you for what all of you are doing here.

As some of you I also take the Berdych outright Win in ATP Doha as @opole suggested. 

So in the light of the semifinal events my question is should I cash out for a crazy profit or should I wait this bet. Do you think Berdych will beat Agut? Sure he is favourite but is it worth the risk?

Cash out is a complete cash out i suggest so you are probably out of the bet?

I wouldn't do that but i would hedge my Berdych outright with a bet on Bautista. Odds are good enough. I probably would cash out if odds on RBA would be ~1.3-1.4 but 1.75 is good enough to place a bet so you have a guaranteed win.

Good luck anyway to everyone who followed.

Edited January 4, 2019 by opole

[opole]

ATP Sydney qualification

Jason Kubler @ 3.31 Pinnacle 2/10

Starting odds were a bit low to take as Kubler had some issues with his knee recently, he pulled out of his home tournament in Brisbane this week and i don't know if he is ready to go full here BUT if he is this is unreal value. Kubler is such a talented guy, i think if he would have a better body without those injuries he would be Top 50 easily. Nishioka looked decent vs. Dimitrov but still is a bit weaponless, if Kubler is ready and healthy this is nearly 50/50, maybe even Kubler is the fav. Market' reaction is logical after he pulled out so i do not overrate it. Small stake though.

[opole]

ATP Pune

Ivo Karlovic @ 4 5dimes 4/10

WTF?! Dr. Ivo with his monster serve is a 4.0 underdog vs. another big serving guy who has a weak return? I can't believe it. Anderson isn't returning well this week and he isn't a big returner anyway and Dr. Ivo is serving unreal this week, he is looking better than ever and very sharp. Can see two or even three tiebreaks, this is nearly a coin toss. Karlovic is a bad matchup for Anderson.

[aussietennisexpert]

I had Ivo to win yesterday and ended up watching the game. Honestly his game is becoming worse and worse. Yes he’s still an ace machine and he did manage to break and had a few break points throughout the match but can’t compare Anderson and Darcis games at the moment. Ivo was doing so many unforced errors and sent many weaks ball in the game ...

anderson did beat isner recently

I can see why ivo is such an underdog !

Edited January 4, 2019 by aussietennisexpert

[opole]

3 minutes ago, aussietennisexpert said:

I had Ivo to win yesterday and ended up watching the game. Honestly his game is becoming worse and worse. Yes he’s still an ace machine and he did manage to break and had a few break points throughout the match but can’t compare Anderson and Darcis games at the moment. Ivo was doing so many unforced errors and sent many weaks ball in the game ...

anderson did beat isner recently

I can see why ivo is such an underdog !

This is Ivos game for almost two decades...he never had any kind of ground game or something. You can always see if Ivo is in good shape if he is moving well and he was. Ivo is always a tough matchup and Darcis is a better returner than Anderson, for sure. Andersons backhand return is one of the worst i have ever seen for a Top 20 player. I think Anderson will also have some problems with Ivos slice as the courts in Pune are low bouncing...

[opole]

Late night bet from NZ :::

Auckland qualification

Ajeet Rai @ 5.82 Pinnacle 7/10

Rai is a very good prospect, one of the best prospects in NZ and i rate him highly. His opponent is a late replacement for Norrie. Marcora looked horrible in Noumea earlier this week. I can smell a nice surprise...

[four-leaf]

6 hours ago, opole said:

ATP Pune

Ivo Karlovic @ 4 5dimes 4/10

WTF?! Dr. Ivo with his monster serve is a 4.0 underdog vs. another big serving guy who has a weak return? I can't believe it. Anderson isn't returning well this week and he isn't a big returner anyway and Dr. Ivo is serving unreal this week, he is looking better than ever and very sharp. Can see two or even three tiebreaks, this is nearly a coin toss. Karlovic is a bad matchup for Anderson.

What worries me about Kevin is that he lost one of the two fully contested matches between them 2013 in the Bogota semis in a decider. If he could lose that match in a equally important match like this Pune final then I see him able to lose this one to. He lost last years Pune final to Gilles Simon and he was as big fav as now to win then also. So this should be a good bet. Worth a try at least.

[CzechPunter]

He was the favorite last year, but he was playing worse than he is now I'd say + Gilles Simon was on fire. That said, backing Anderson outright obviously has no value at the current odds.

[four-leaf]

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga/Daniil Medvedev over 12.5 games first set at 2.95 with Unibet

I'll have a go on this again. J-W has the serve to make it happen and Daniil served very well in the quarter. Really looks like it could be a tie-break in first set again for Daniil and now the odds are better than last time. Worth a try at least.

[delfino]

Federer is in devil form. Better and better year after year

[delfino]

ivo Karlovic in devil serving form as well. He is firing aces for fun. Me too i believe that Ivo has very good chances against Anderson. Is not a big thing to beat Simon these days

[aussietennisexpert]

Entertaining match between Riske and Sabalenka earlier.

very good first set from Riske 

[four-leaf]

Jenson Brooksby to beat Brandon Holt at 2.10 with bet365

@opole what do you think of Jenson Brooksbys chances tonight? He's up against Brandon Holt. He seems really promising this tournament, he's been great so far. After he nicely beat Brandon Nakashima in second round he followed it up by beating Dmitry Popko 6-3 6-0. Looks like Jenson could turn into something really good this season if he continues this way.

[gg-77]

@opole I can't believe how unlucky you are with your latest picks. But all of them were almost perfect. Keep it up man 

[yogg]

On 12/31/2018 at 6:12 AM, yogg said:

happy new year all

ATP Brisbane Outright Winner: Alex De Minaur and Daniil Medvedev

I haven't seen any odds yet but I'll be backing these two e.w. (half the odds to reach the final).

Both have made stunning progress in the rankings and I don't think they've finished yet.

I actually saw Alex at the Surbiton Challenger back in June where he lost to Jeremy Chardy in the final but I never thought he'd end the season at number 31.

What I did notice about him was his incredible speed around the court which has to be seen to be believed.

As for the big Russian, Daniil, he's already won three hard court titles and can beat anyone on this surface imo.

Here's hoping to bank some early profits, good luck all

===================================================

Update: Alex De Minaur @17.00 and Daniil Medvedev @15.00

both with Bet365.

[four-leaf]

Destanee Aiava to beat Yulia Putintseva at 2.20 with Bwin

Destanee must be worth a try again. i hope she's making some progress this aussie and I belive in her to at least make the second round in Sydney qualies. Yulia does her best on clay acctually, most of her ranking points comes from that Roland Garros quarterfinal except that final in Guangzhou on hard last season where she beat a couple of players of lower ranking to reach the final which she lost heavily to an inform Qiang Wang. Yulias record in Sydney is not that good either having played there three times and gone out in second round of qualies 2 times and once in second round of main draw without having to qualify and she only reached the second round that time because Belinda Bencic retired after first set. This is a match Yulia should win but I don't feel it's like a guarantee and Destanee is not a big underdog for a reason. I'll try a small stake on Destanee here but I think she should lose since her ranking is 247 and Yulia stands at no.44 and Yulia usually wins her matches on hardcourt against players of lower rankings.

[four-leaf]

12 minutes ago, eros said:

Shit, it would have been too good to be true. No 14k. Roberto I hate you.  wtf

When it's 66 on a player to win a tournament you should probably bet e.w. so you get profit if he loses the final. You shouldn't be mad for this longshot not coming in.

[opole]

A very UNLUCKY night guys.

Ajeet Rai lost after being a set and a break up and even mini breaks up in the tiebreaker. Unreal.

Karlovic loses two tiebreaks and a tight three setter at high odds.

Berdych also losing a three setter....

Andujar losing the third set tiebreak......

and finally Kubler lost another tight three setter.

Can't believe it. But it has to continue. Let's see....a couple of matches were not played due to rain in Sydney last night. Maybe we'll get the luck back this night with O'Connell and Bolt.

[South_African_Punter]

1 hour ago, opole said:

A very UNLUCKY night guys.

Ajeet Rai lost after being a set and a break up and even mini breaks up in the tiebreaker. Unreal.

Karlovic loses two tiebreaks and a tight three setter at high odds.

Berdych also losing a three setter....

Andujar losing the third set tiebreak......

and finally Kubler lost another tight three setter.

Can't believe it. But it has to continue. Let's see....a couple of matches were not played due to rain in Sydney last night. Maybe we'll get the luck back this night with O'Connell and Bolt.

Just a small correction: Andujar lost 6--1, 7-5. There was neither a TB nor a third set.

Edited January 5, 2019 by South_African_Punter

[opole]

11 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Just a small correction: Andujar lost 6--1, 7-5. There was neither a TB nor a third set.

yeah

[CzechPunter]

Don't be too hard on yourself @opole, bad and frustrating runs are bound to happen. The long-term is what matters!

[four-leaf]

6 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Destanee Aiava to beat Yulia Putintseva at 2.20 with Bwin

Destanee must be worth a try again. i hope she's making some progress this aussie and I belive in her to at least make the second round in Sydney qualies. Yulia does her best on clay acctually, most of her ranking points comes from that Roland Garros quarterfinal except that final in Guangzhou on hard last season where she beat a couple of players of lower ranking to reach the final which she lost heavily to an inform Qiang Wang. Yulias record in Sydney is not that good either having played there three times and gone out in second round of qualies 2 times and once in second round of main draw without having to qualify and she only reached the second round that time because Belinda Bencic retired after first set. This is a match Yulia should win but I don't feel it's like a guarantee and Destanee is not a big underdog for a reason. I'll try a small stake on Destanee here but I think she should lose since her ranking is 247 and Yulia stands at no.44 and Yulia usually wins her matches on hardcourt against players of lower rankings.

Yulia opens up with a 3-0 lead. Just like I though Yulia would be to good for Destanee and even if it's just the beginning I think Yulia will win this.

[Torque]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Don't be too hard on yourself @opole, bad and frustrating runs are bound to happen. The long-term is what matters!

Completely agree. I took a position on Karlovic in the earlier rounds and at 5-2 to the Croat in the final set breaker all looked good - cue five points in a row from Anderson including two mini-breaks. You just can't legislate for that kind of thing - Anderson is poor on return and Karlovic strong on serve so what are the chances of Anderson winning consecutive points on return. The long-term is definitely what counts as it smooths out the peaks and troughs of good luck and bad luck.

[opole]

week 1 is finally over, the end was exhausting but overall it was still a good week

 

WEEK 29.12-6.01

WON: 17
VOID: 0
LOST: 21
STAKED: 131
BACK: 154.88
BALANCE: +23.88
YIELD: 18.2%
 

Edited January 6, 2019 by opole