Tennis Tips - December 29 - January 6

[opole]

As expected the drop on Munar was useless as hell. 

[CzechPunter]

If Basilashvili somehow wins today, Berdych could actually be a very live shot. Rooting for you @opole!

[opole]

Let's see if Berdych can keep this level up he showed in the first and second round. I think he looked really good there although he lost a set vs. Verdasco this was probably the best Berdych i have seen for a while. He can beat Herbert and the winner of Cecchinato/Lajovic too so a final is possible. Let's see, i think the bet was a good one and my thoughts were pretty decent about Berdych having a shot this week after a good prep, we'll see how far he goes. Anyway it was more a fun bet with low amount of money involved. 

Edited January 3, 2019 by opole

[four-leaf]

55 minutes ago, eros said:

Tennis - ATP Challenger Orlando - R16 VZ - 1X2 Nino Serdarusic -vs- Stefan Kozlov

Nino Serdarusic @ 2.00 Pinnacle

5/10

Can you please give some reasoning why you bet the way you do? Don't just write out a bet without giving any reason why a player is supposed to have a chance to win.

[opole]

4 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Can you please give some reasoning why you bet the way you do? Don't just write out a bet without giving any reason why a player is supposed to have a chance to win.

Agree. Especially with those tight odds there should be a good reason to bet on A or B. I am not a fan of either Kozlov or Serdarusic so i pass anyway but good luck to Eros.

[Uriel18]

Dusan Lajovic – Marco Cecchinato

Nice to be back gentlemen  This will be my first bet on tennis this year. this looks like a very tight match. if i have to back one of them, it will be Cecchinato as he impressed me on monday. I dont think he can win easily but he must have a chance to do so. Howevr, as i said I expect a nice fight and a tight match so my bet is on total games. 

Over 22 @ 1.847 with Pinnacle

[darko08]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Venus Williams to beat Bianca Andreescu at 1.72 with Pinnacle

I had some good bets on Andreescu in the past and I was thrilled to see her beat Wozniacki today, but I'm happy to get behind Venus here at 1.72, as I'd have her at around 1.50 honestly. Big wins are hard to follow up and Venus has been playing well herself and was the winner here in 2015, so there should be no shortage of motivation. Also, she's a completely different match-up than Wozniacki, so Bianca will have to adjust - and I'm not entirely convinced that she will be able to do that.

I heard that Andreescu had some kind of injury during the match against Woz but i couldn't see that match so im not sure. If she did this has a lot of value. Anybody knows exactly what happened?

Edited January 3, 2019 by darko08

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

I heard that Andreescu had some kind of injury during the match against Woz but i couldn't see that match so im not sure. If she did this has a lot of value. Anybody knows exactly what happened?

No idea what happened but if she did have an injury this has no value as there is a risk of retirement ahead of Aussie open. But without any injury Venus to win has a lot of value. Venus is better player than Biancca and Bianca having problems to adjust to facing Venus that's where the value lies, not with any kind of injury. I prefer a player winning a match straight up because of being simply better and not because the opponent is injured.

[CzechPunter]

Some sort of a back injury. Pinnacle pay out after one set.

[four-leaf]

Last season Denis Istomin took an injury timeout in Kitzbuhel in second round when playing Phil Kohli but he still turned the match around and reached the final so players being injured doesn't mean all that mutch many times.

[cluelessG]

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

I heard that Andreescu had some kind of injury during the match against Woz but i couldn't see that match so im not sure. If she did this has a lot of value. Anybody knows exactly what happened?

I have not watched the match either but read that Andreescu had back problems in her previous match as well... and apparently she took a medical break in the second set against Wozniacki. It's probably the same sacroiliac joint issue that forced her to pull out of a couple of tournaments last season. She has been troubled by a cold in the past 3 weeks but she must be used to it by now.

[four-leaf]

Jenson Brooksby to beat Brandon Nakashima at 2.62 with bet365

Jenson has beaten Brandon before in two junior tournaments last season and maybe can win again.

[darko08]

Thank you guys for your answers about Andreescu!

four-leaf i am agree with you but there are some bookies that pay you with only 1 point disputed so it depends of in which one you put money. In that case betting against a player who has some kind of injury has value. Anyway, like you said, Venus in that price is a good bet even with Andreescu in a good form.

[opole]

ATP Brisbane doubles

J. Duckworth/J. Thompson @ 2.70 188bet 4/10

Duckworth and Thompson both having no reason to tank for some qualifying events at the weekend as both already entered main draws of Sydney (Thompson via WC) and Canberra (Duckworth via direct entry) so i guess both will try hard to reach the final in Brisbane. Great effort so far from both, really good doubles play and i think this isn't some kind of a fluke as both are really good and talented doubles players. Thompson won Brisbane International in doubles competition in 2017 partnering Kokkinakis and Duckworth has all the tools to do well in doubles too: good first and second serve, touch, net play. This is looking like a great combination. Ram and Salisbury are looking great too so far but i am not convinced they should being prized like that, for me it's a close matchup where i'll go with the local Aussie home factor at those odds!

[four-leaf]

Amanda Anisimova to beat (-1.5 sets) Viktoria Kuzmova at 2.85 with 888sport

Random livebet where I belive Amanda has more tools for a straight sets win than Viktoria does and can be the correct favourite to win this. Maybe not in straight sets but I'll take my chances.

[four-leaf]

26 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Amanda Anisimova to beat (-1.5 sets) Viktoria Kuzmova at 2.85 with 888sport

Random livebet where I belive Amanda has more tools for a straight sets win than Viktoria does and can be the correct favourite to win this. Maybe not in straight sets but I'll take my chances.

Well that went nice.. Viktoria from being icecold for about 6 months on the tour losing heavily in straight sets in many matches to be close to a semifinal in Auckland after winning first set. Kind of unlogical.

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Jenson Brooksby to beat Brandon Nakashima at 2.62 with bet365

Jenson has beaten Brandon before in two junior tournaments last season and maybe can win again.

Jenson did the job at least by winning in a decider

[aussietennisexpert]

Thanks guys.

ended up pulling off zvonareva because I hate rain delays..

 

had gorges to win this morning I thought she would smash Bouchard seeing how they both played so far but the wind and a bit of luck made it really close.. not sure about gorges winning the tournament now.

 

What do you guys think of Anderson vs Simon?

simon has pulled an upset before and even though he struggled a bit last round I still think it could be possible. 2.75 on bet365

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, aussietennisexpert said:

Thanks guys.

ended up pulling off zvonareva because I hate rain delays..

 

had gorges to win this morning I thought she would smash Bouchard seeing how they both played so far but the wind and a bit of luck made it really close.. not sure about gorges winning the tournament now.

 

What do you guys think of Anderson vs Simon?

simon has pulled an upset before and even though he struggled a bit last round I still think it could be possible. 2.75 on bet365

Well this is a rematch of last years Pune final and Kevin is once again going to have it hard against Gilles who is an awesome returner. It's not like Gilles is living on his serve like Kevin is. Kevin gets it tough everytime he faces players with good returns. Just look at his stats vs Nole or Sascha Zverev who both is pretty good at returning. I think Gilles Simon is up there with the best returners.

[CzechPunter]

Madness, I thought it was done and dusted when Venus broke in the first game of the second set. Fair play to the girl though, massive plays there. She's on fire now, putting 12 pts on her at 1.75 with Bet365, good or bad.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, alright, so a tiny plus for the week at the moment. Let's see what the weekend might bring.

[opole]

Hopman Cup

A. Barty/M. Ebden @ 2.21 Pinnacle 4/10

Kerber and Zverev just qualified for the final vs. Switzerland as both won their singles match today. I do not think they'll go all in in the mixed doubles here, maybe they'll make the home crowd a present too and i expect Ebden and Barty being movivated here.

[aussietennisexpert]

49 minutes ago, opole said:

Hopman Cup

A. Barty/M. Ebden @ 2.21 Pinnacle 4/10

Kerber and Zverev just qualified for the final vs. Switzerland as both won their singles match today. I do not think they'll go all in in the mixed doubles here, maybe they'll make the home crowd a present too and i expect Ebden and Barty being movivated here.

This match is turning into an exhibition. Well spotted! Didn’t manage to get in quick enough haha.

[Stevecw]

1 hour ago, opole said:

Hopman Cup

A. Barty/M. Ebden @ 2.21 Pinnacle 4/10

Kerber and Zverev just qualified for the final vs. Switzerland as both won their singles match today. I do not think they'll go all in in the mixed doubles here, maybe they'll make the home crowd a present too and i expect Ebden and Barty being movivated here.

Great shout, easiest money I've won in ages! Thanks Opole

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, alright, so a tiny plus for the week at the moment. Let's see what the weekend might bring.

I'm on a big plus for the week at the moment because of all the big bets landed. I can live with Anisimova failing and Ajla not being able to bring down Karo Pliskova since Daniil Medvedev did the job and the first set ended in a tie-break in that match and Jenson Brooksby had a nice turn around. But I would have had so mutch more plus today if I had taken Jenson to win in second set since he was up at 8 to win in the middle of second set.

Btw @CzechPunter didn't you bet on Niko Basil +1.5 sets yesterday? That one should make it more than tiny plus for you and didn't you bet on RBA to beat Stan that @opole posted? When you write that you only have a tiny plus for the week I guess you mean you only bet on your own bets.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, opole said:

Hopman Cup

A. Barty/M. Ebden @ 2.21 Pinnacle 4/10

Kerber and Zverev just qualified for the final vs. Switzerland as both won their singles match today. I do not think they'll go all in in the mixed doubles here, maybe they'll make the home crowd a present too and i expect Ebden and Barty being movivated here.

Damn I missed this one, I was asleep...

[four-leaf]

Mike Ymer to beat Federico Delbonis at 2.28 with Unibet or Pinnacle

Mike says his best surface is clay but just like his brother Elias he's pretty good on hardcourt to. He can beat a clay specialist like Federico on Noumeas courts. Mike handled his last opponent pretty well even tough his opponent was playing pretty bad. This match will be different but I think Mike can ride through this. He's on fire now and very motivated to make his first challenger tour final. I hope we'll see Mike in the AO qualies also. It would be the first time he tries to qualify for a gs.

[opole]

Sydney, Qualification
Christopher O'Connell @ 3.25 William Hill 4/10
Andreozzi hasn't played since mid November so this is his first match in 2019. I do not expect him to play at his best, especially on hardcourt in Australia where he has a 0-4 record overall. For an unknown reason he pulled out of the qualification in Doha last weekend, it's a bit uncommon to pull out of a tournament at the beginning of the season, especially if you want to get some match rythm and confidence.
O'Connell is playing his home tournament as he was born and is living in Sydney. He played well there in the past winning sets vs. Mahut, Elias and matches vs. Marchenko, Lopez-Perez. I think O'Connell is underrated as he wasn't playing a lot last season, especially in the first half of the season but he had a good training camp and also already played a couple of matches recently (AO WC playoffs, Brisbane Q).

[opole]

Sydney, Qualification

Pablo Andujar @ 2.73 Pinnacle 4/10
Andujar looked in good shape in Pune and yeah i know hardcourt isn't his best surface but i do rate him overall as a very skilled player and he is a former Top 50 player who can easily compete with those kind of opponents on hardcourt as he has consistency and experience.
On the other side Opelka looked like all serve in Playford this week, he made a lot of easy errors on both the forehand and backhand side and i wasn't impressed at all. Of course his serve is a massive weapon but that's not enough i think to beat a guy like Andujar. Furthermore the conditions in Sydney will be very tough at the weekend as the weather forecast giving very windy conditions (about 35 km/h).

Alex Bolt @ 2.53 Pinnacle 4/10
Munar played yesterday in Pune (India) vs. Anderson and has to play tomorrow in Sydney (Australia). This is a long and tough journey, 18hr flight at least, 5 1/2 hrs time difference, different climate (humidity)
Bolt was looking horrible this week in Brisbane but i expect him to raise his level of play, i think he had a bad day and Thompson was playing great tennis out there so we should not overrate the performance.

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by opole

[four-leaf]

47 minutes ago, opole said:

Sydney, Qualification
Christopher O'Connell @ 3.25 William Hill 4/10
Andreozzi hasn't played since mid November so this is his first match in 2019. I do not expect him to play at his best, especially on hardcourt in Australia where he has a 0-4 record overall. For an unknown reason he pulled out of the qualification in Doha last weekend, it's a bit uncommon to pull out of a tournament at the beginning of the season, especially if you want to get some match rythm and confidence.
O'Connell is playing his home tournament as he was born and is living in Sydney. He played well there in the past winning sets vs. Mahut, Elias and matches vs. Marchenko, Lopez-Perez. I think O'Connell is underrated as he wasn't playing a lot last season, especially in the first half of the season but he had a good training camp and also already played a couple of matches recently (AO WC playoffs, Brisbane Q).

This one I belive a lot in. I've seen Guido lose matches like this before.