Tennis Tips - December 29 - January 6

[Grass Cash]

There is alot of talented young players .. xinyu wang can be # 2 this week, and # 5 junior next week. Good luck if you decide in play .. Very high chance I'll be betting on this tho .. I don't see anything else that interests me alot 

It seems to me you are overthinking the situation.  Xun already with the straight set win h2h, and came thru qualifying with good results.. The bet makes sense.  Of course anytime we can lose. I've seen crazy things happen, but thankfully in tennis its less likely to happen.

I might watch to make sure Sakkari doesn't win tho first .. because I could be betting on the wrong shorter player , but its all superstitious nonsense because they can both win or both lose

Edited December 30, 2018 by money44

[CzechPunter]

David Ferrer to beat Matthew Ebden at 1.62 with William Hill

Alright, here we go with the first match bet of the season and I'll be siding with David Ferrer, who was surprisingly good against Zverev, losing only in a final set TB. Matthew Ebden did well to beat Pouille, but the Frenchman was as unconvincing as during his entire 2018 and Ferrer is a completely different proposition returns-wise. Not a lock by any stretch of imagination, but Ferrer didn't fall apart in the off-season (as many were expecting him to) and should be too strong for the one-dimensional Aussie.

[Grass Cash]

good luck CP .. can't say I feel good about it

[opole]

I really like Ebden in Australia, he was damn good last year and Perth is his home town so we should expect some extra % there.

Futhermore i think Ebden is a bit underrated due to his defensive style but i think he is much better than this, has nice variety, a very good net game and know how to mix things up.

I do expect some good tennis in the next few weeks but obviously 2.1-2.2 isn't much of a value bet neither vs. Pouille nor vs. Ferrer but i agree with money44 that 1.6 on Ferrer isn't looking special these days but still...all the best and good luck for your bet CP.

I have two bets in my pocket for the challenger circuit, i won't give much of analysis but i like them. But small stake bets. No more than 2 units.

Noumea Challenger

Maxime Chazal @ 2.11 sbobet 2/10

Playford Challenger

Hiroki Moriya @ 3.25 5dimes 2/10

We also should take a look at the QUalifying in Noumea which begins in about an hour. J. P. Fruttero will give his singles comeback there and his opponent is still to be announced so an alternate maybe Bet365 will offer it live...some unknown players there involved as three of four players are ALTERNATES and not announced yet. Could be some nice value bets if Bet365 has to make the odds on short notice.

 

[opole]

ATP Doha doubles

C. Ilkel/S. M. Zayid @ 4.76 Pinnacle 2/10

Odds based on the name (Novak) Djokovic. Novak hasn't played a lot of doubles recently, only a couple of tournaments AND Marko Djokovic is a total bum. Sorry for the harsh words but he is. He has nothing. Ilkel is a solid doubles player and Zayid is definitely better than his ranking. 

[Grass Cash]

If Birrell beats Kasatkina .. I am not betting anything until its a sure bet .. have to be conservative .. because probably missed an opportunity on her.. for sure she looks playable , but i'm not in good betting position to take it @opole... Birrell's previous matches were very good if i'm thinking the right player .. anyways we'll see , she is serving for match now 

[opole]

2 hours ago, money44 said:

If Birrell beats Kasatkina .. I am not betting anything until its a sure bet .. have to be conservative .. because probably missed an opportunity on her.. for sure she looks playable , but i'm not in good betting position to take it @opole... Birrell's previous matches were very good if i'm thinking the right player .. anyways we'll see , she is serving for match now 

It's pretty hard to call it a missed chance every time a big underdog wins and we / you didn't pick her. I know what's your point and i definitely understand you but it is very very tough. Of course afterwards it looked like a solid bet but tbh i didn't have it in mind as i took a look over the matches in Brisbane. 

Night was okay so far. Moriya won, Chazal lost. Serena is winning a close match right now although Sakkari was up and served for the set, typical one. Let's see...tons of bets are still on for the day and i have a good feeling.

[yogg]

happy new year all

ATP Brisbane Outright Winner: Alex De Minaur and Daniil Medvedev

I haven't seen any odds yet but I'll be backing these two e.w. (half the odds to reach the final).

Both have made stunning progress in the rankings and I don't think they've finished yet.

I actually saw Alex at the Surbiton Challenger back in June where he lost to Jeremy Chardy in the final but I never thought he'd end the season at number 31.

What I did notice about him was his incredible speed around the court which has to be seen to be believed.

As for the big Russian, Daniil, he's already won three hard court titles and can beat anyone on this surface imo.

Here's hoping to bank some early profits, good luck all

===================================================

Update: Alex De Minaur @17.00 and Daniil Medvedev @15.00

both with Bet365.

Edited December 31, 2018 by yogg
odds update

[DrO]

On 29.12.2018. at 7:14 PM, opole said:

ATP Pune

Pablo Andujar @ 3.14 Pinnacle 5/10

I know Andujar was playing on clay most of the time in 2018 but he is a player who can be solid on any surface out there as he is very skilled and moving well. He did very well in 2018 coming back from a longterm injury and establishing himself in Top 100 again. Props to him. Donskoy is one of those players who are playing average for 8 or 9 months but having some good moments throughout the year but overall i am not afraid of him here. Andujar should have a good shot winning this.

Andujar was 6-2 up in the tb of a 3rd set and somehow menaged not to win.

[Torque]

15 minutes ago, eros said:

holy shit what happened to berdych odds?

The simple answer is lots of money coming in for Kolhlschreiber. As for why - I'm not sure. Most likely it's more and more bettors deciding that even money on a player coming back after a long period of inactivity against a decent player doesn't make sense. Even money on Kohlschreiber would have been my play but now I'd be thinking about Berdych on some kind of plus.

[Robinnho]

There was nothing strange in this match:

Berdych T. vs Kohlschreber P.

(It was a 50-50 match-up)

Berdych, the younger player at the age of 33 obliged with a win... 6-4, 7-6(7-5)

Congrats to Berdych's takers 

Edited December 31, 2018 by Robinnho

[opole]

Berdych looked really good for being out such a long time. He was a bit shaky in the first set but played very, very well in the second. He served well, needed some time to adapt to the match rythm but his effort in the second set was really good. Odds Movement was simply pathetic, nobody with a pulse would bet on Kohli at 1.6 odds or less, unreal drop i can't understand but we beat the market, that's what counts. For me it was a good start to the new season so far, i will post my stats at the end of every week so let's rock guys...i have no time right now to post long analysis as the new year is coming but i will give you my bets for this night/tomorrow:

Hopman Cup

Belinda Bencic @ 2.92 Pinnacle 3/10

 

ATP Brisbane doubles

J. Millman/J.-P. Smith @ 1.99 Sbobet 4/10

R. Lindstedt/M. Raonic @ 3.80 5dimes 3/10

 

Challenger Noumea

Andre Goransson @ 5.75 5dimes 1/10

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by opole

[Robinnho]

I'm gonna put my money on Antoine Hoang to beat Jiri Vesely in Pune.  The Frenchmen came through 2 qualification matches and is in good competitive condition. I think he has the potential to be a Top-100 ATP player. Vesely, the higher rank player and slight favourite here must be at his top level, which I don't think so, to win this match-up.  Therefore Hoang can take advantage of the situation to open his account in the main draw of the ATP.

Happy New Year ALL

[CzechPunter]

Great work as always @opole, let's hope that Bencic doesn't choke and Happy New Year once again to all!

Anett Kontaveit to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.29 with Pinnacle

I'm not entire excited to go against Kvitova, but I just have to, I don't understand her skinny version at all, it just doesn't seem like the best fitness basis for her particular style and the match against Collins showed that she still has some way to go. Kontaveit will be fresh after dispatching a tricky opponent in style in the first round and she just looked better physically to me, so I'd have her at evens at most. Kvitova is a big name and I'd love to see her win some Grand Slams again, but she doesn't deserve this sort of favoritism imo.

[WinningTipster]

1 pick for WTA Auckland

BOUCHARD-3.5 GAMES OVER SCHOOFS @ 1.63 pinnacle

Bouchard with strong end to 2018 and good 1^st match of 2019 showing her return to good form, and at her best she is a couple of levels above Schoofs.

 

[opole]

First thing: Happy new year to the Tennis community in here. Great start of the season so far for us i think but let's keep the work up and continue like that.

Unlucky night / morning. Harrison losing a razor close match vs Kyrgios at massive odds, Bencic collapsing and blowing up a set lead and wasting a huge chance at 3-3 in the second set where she was 30-0 up at Williams serve. Futhermore the loss on Goransson was also a bit unlucky as he was playing very well in the first set and looked like a 1.5 favorite there but he couldn't hold up the pressure. But at least the two doubles bets won, of course with some luck as they went to the supertie and it's always like Russian roulette there. Murray by the way looked very solid. I am not quite convinced about him as i think Duckworth was playing not his best tennis and although i do rate him he was one of the softer opponents and Murray still wasn't looking sharp or something. But the odds on Medvedev not good enough to take in my opinion, backing him at 2.1 vs. Murray is a no way type. Maybe we'll get a better chance to go against Murray. 

Now there is one bet left with Arjun Kadhe in Pune and i am still very confident he beats Djere who is a solid claycourt player and of course can also play on hardcourt but lacking weapons and experience there while Kadhe played his complete college career on hardcourt and looks like one of the best prospects in India right now with a great serve and a stunning forehand. I followed him closely and i am still very confident. Maybe i will take some more of him inplay as the odds are stable so far (dropped about 0.2-0.3 ....)

Today i have another bet i really like:

Challenger Orlando

Ricardo Ojeda Lara @ 2.06 Pinnacle 3/10

I know Ojeda Lara had a bad second half in the 2018 season but obviously he was playing on a very decent level there and almost played challengers only, he lost to very good names there and i would not write him off because he has a bad streak on that level, this is a completly different matchup as Brouwer is almost a ITF only player has no experience on challenger level yet and he already is 22 years old. Brouwer is a lucky loser and Ojeda Lara in my opinion showed last year that he should be at a higher level than Brouwer. Still small stake as Brouwer already had a match this season in qualifying vs. decent opposition. But i favor Ojeda Lara here, odds should be at least reversed.

 

[Tobulas]

Opole happy new year you are one of best.You deserve the best life has to offer.

[opole]

No reason to thank me but nevertheless thanks for the nice words. A lot of people sharing their views & bets here (for years), they should receive the same amount of respect as i get and hopefully we can profit from each other and many other guys coming in and sharing their views, i think only together it's possible to beat the bookmakers longterm. It's a quite fun community here and no bad blood or something like in other communitys or even closed communitys. Good luck and the best to y'all.

btw: Goffin just is losing his first round match in Doha...i never expected that tbh...WOW

[CzechPunter]

Yep, the friendliness and respect are what makes Punterslounge so great in my view as well!

[opole]

ATP Brisbane doubles

R. Ram/J. Salisbury @ 1.92 Sbobet 3/10

Harrison is already out of the singles main draw as he lost a razor close match to Kyrgios last night. He'll lose tons of points as he reached the final in Brisbane last year and he will play qualifying in Auckland at the weekend so maybe he will go out here to travel to New Zealand comfortably. I know Brisbane - Auckland is a short flight about 3-4 hrs. but still tomorrow is Wednesday and he event will start on Saturday. Furthermore Dimitrov has to play a tough match before the doubles match vs. local hero Millman who looked very good in the first round and gave Dimitrov a hell of a match last year. Ram/Salisbury are both very good doubles player and looking solid enough to take it here but still there is a huge gap in class here so if Harrison/Dimitrov deciding to go full on their opponents it could be close but factors i mentioned above are giving me some kind of a good feeling to back the US-british pair.

[South_African_Punter]

1 hour ago, eros said:

Thiem pathetic, full domination by herbert so far.

I bet on Herbert at 1.95 in-play when he was a break up in the first. Unbelievable price given Thiem's recent form 

[four-leaf]

Seems like Thiem should be opposed in the coming weeks until the clay season in South America begins at least.

[four-leaf]

Donna Vekic to beat Kiki Bertens at 2.26 with Pinnacle

Has anyone been thinking about Donna Vekic tomorrow? I think she beats Kiki. Only ranking makes Kiki the favourite here.

Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Johanna Konta at 3.03 with Pinnacle

Can anyone give me a reason why Johanna is the big fav here?

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, eros said:

Because my personal herbert bet went well and saved my ass today I'll try the following bet:

Tennis - ATP Challenger Orlando - R2  VZ - 1X2  Alexander Sarkissian - vs - Johan Sebastien Tatlot

Tatlot @ 2.040 Pinnacle

6/10

 

I don't see how you can bet on a guy that lost to Marko Djokovic last season?

[darko08]

Hi guys, i’m back for this new season!

Anett Kontaveit to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.10 with William Hill

Petra is not in her best moment, she almost lost against Danielle Collins in the first round (6-7, 7-6, 6-3) while Kontaveit destroyed Carla Suárez (6-0, 6-3). 

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, eros said:

Because my personal herbert bet went well and saved my ass today I'll try the following bet:

Tennis - ATP Challenger Orlando - R2  VZ - 1X2  Alexander Sarkissian - vs - Johan Sebastien Tatlot

Tatlot @ 2.040 Pinnacle

6/10

 

I don't know what made you bet on the frenchman here but well done

[darko08]

Elina Svitolina + Julia Goerges at 1.73 with William Hill

Parlay with the defending champions. Svitolina won in Brisbane the last year while Goerges did the same in Auckland. Goerges will face Mona Barthel and Svitolina will face Sasnovich. Both players have to face players with similar styles than them but not as good as them, obviously. I think this can be a great year for Svitolina, who ended the season in the best possible way by winning the WTA Finals, beating there Kvitova, Pliskova, Wozniacki, Bertens and Stephens. Goerges convinced me with her opening game, destroying Johanna Larsson (6-0, 6-4).

[four-leaf]

John Millman to beat (+3.5) Grigor Dimitrov at 2.01 with Pinnacle

I don't think John will get destroyed here, he's playing good in the rallies so far. He could hang around for awhile in this match.

[Grass Cash]

Probably pick is going to lose .. Welcome back @Darko08.. I have been very angry because I have some really good bets when these tournaments start and all that I list here is Fang Ying Xun .. A player I am not familiar with, and she was not impressive at all in the match vs Xinyu Wang. There was alot of underdogs that won the past couple of days .. well atleast on par for what is normal ..And to Opole .. I did see a chance with Goffin losing .. he really looks worn down at the end of last year, and I don't believe this tournament was important to him .. These Qatar courts are strange, and I believe Berankis had already beaten him twice... Maybe you guys remember Gerald Melzer playing well here a couple years ago or last year... Anyhow I'm going to take a punt on ..

Marton Fucsovics to beat Novak Djokovic @ 17.29 with Pinnacle

 Djokovic said he was tired after some exhibition matches in Abu Dhabi.. I seen some of his first round match vs Dzumhur.. He doesn't look to playing lights out tennis like he showed so many times.. I see some holes there, and if Marton Physical level is better .. He's going to blugeon the ball at Novak, and we could see him fold.. He's already won this tournament twice, and spending alot of energy here is risky, because he's needs a bit more rest for the rest of the year.. He is playing doubles after this match.. That scares me, but the same thing scared me when Kasatkina lost to Kimberly Birrell in Brisbane.. I'm not sure it matters when these doubles matches are scheduled.. He still has to win the singles match, and Fucsovics rolled straight sets in his opening match.. If this pick loses then I'm not posting here again until the Aussie open begins, and hope to have a full sheet for that tournament.. GL !! 

[Grass Cash]

Adding 

Laslo Djere To beat Kevin Anderson at 6.8 With Pinnacle

gl