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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Dec 26th & 27th

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I have to say Watford look a good price at 5.25 (Bet 365).  Watford +1 is 2.15 and looks a great bet if you want some draw cover.  After being unbeaten for a while at the beginning of the season, Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 6 PL games and should not be odds on to Watford, who are in good form.

Maybe Brighton as well against Arsenal?  Similar prices to the Watford game, and while I fancy Watford to get a result more than Brighton, Arsenal having a bit of a dip in form, and they also have a tough game at Liverpool to follow.  

I'd be very surprised if both Chelsea and Arsenal won these fixtures, so both Brighton & Watford +1 is worth a go in my view (both 2.15).

@StevieDay1983- any value in the Cardiff price, maybe again on the handicap?  I was actually looking at this game to back Palace, but was thinking they should be much closer to evens and not such long odds on, which is perhaps an overreaction to their win at Man City.  That result aside, Palace aren't doing much better than Cardiff this season although their form has picked up recently.  Not sure i'm brave enough to back Cardiff away from home, but at 6.00 they are a bigger price than I thought they should be.  

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Brighton v Arsenal and Watford v Chelsea

Both Arsenal and Chelsea find themselves in quite an interesting situation. Both have new managers, and are adjusting to a new playing style. Both have weaknesses. Arsenal defensively and Chelsea going forward. With smart minds viewing games and deep analysis, opponents  will easily pick up patterns and figure out ways in which to exploit the vulnerabilities of both these teams.

And that is why they are coming slightly unstuck here. Opponents are figuring them out,  match by match as the season progresses. And the more opponents figure you out, the easier it is for the next opponent to do likewise ... and the harder your task becomes !

Arsenal are just not worth backing on the road. Last year they were terrible travelers, and this season they remain exceptionally generous, gifting goals. In 8 away games they have conceded 2 or more 5 times.

Add to this that for teams similar to Brighton and Watford their bread and butter is doing well at home. Away points are a bonus !

I don't think either Watford or Brighton (maybe Brighton) can pick up a win, but the home double chance (priced above even's) is a decent bet in both these games.

Man United v Huddersfield

I can't see Man United not doing what they did against Cardiff last week. Go out and play.  Think a similar result is on the cards here. The new manager has a problem because he needs to give everyone a chance. Nice to say but when and how ? Nobody wants to come on as a sub in the 82nd minute when you are up 4-0. It's meaningless ...

But you have Lukaku, Fred, Fellaini, Mata, Pereira, Sanchez(when fit), McTominay, Dialot, Darmian, Bailly, Valencia and  Smalling sitting around.  

So you may see a slightly different lineup.  I don't think the a 5 player different starting lineup makes a difference at Man U. They had been doing that almost every game under Mourinho, They still don't have a  recognized  pattern of play, but the extra freedom, should create another high scoring, run and gun game.

One of the ways to get more players involved is to tell players they are on for 60 minutes. So, burn it up, give what you have and rotate after 60 minutes. Also, at least 6 who started last Sat, may be rotated for Wed (Herrera, Matic, Lingard, Jones, Lindelof, Young). But at least everyone gets on the park and has a go. Certainly one way to get players to give what they have and impress...

I expect another high scoring game here (maybe 4-1) and like the home win and over 3.5 goals which is priced at 2.6

The crazy thing is that they should win their next two games. If Arsenal or Chelsea (or both slip up), United are probably only 6 points out of the CL places.

 

Edited by neilovan

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I am looking at backing the following please let me know your thoughts

fulham no clean sheet
crystal palace clean sheet
leicester vs man city over 2.5 goals
liverpool clean sheet
manchester united over 1.5 team goals
spurs game over 1.5 goals
chelsea game over 2.5 goals
chelsea game over 3.5 goals

wolves vs fulham over 1.5 goals

wolves or draw

spurs to win

and the following both teams to score

arsenal vs brighton
watford vs chelsea

Thanks

 

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I haven't seen the odds for these bets but I don't care, I will play it whatever they will price it...

Fulham-Wolves BTTS&Over 2.5

Fulham under new manager still didn't find any luck but Wolves might be a good client since they tend to under perform against weak sides. It's been 5 rounds since Fulham win over Southampton 3:2 and I have a feeling they could get something out of this game. Still I don't trust any side here because it could go either way but I see goals in this one. They both didn't score in their last games and usually the game after that the goals are coming, this time I expect it from both sides as both will see their chances in this game and therefore I expect an open attacking game. Another Fulham home win was 4:2 against Burnley and I see a pattern here when they are determined to win.

Burnley - Everton BTTS

Until now Burnley scored in all of their home games except against Man Utd and Chelsea and Everton is lower level than these teams. Also Everton conceded 6 goals in their last game so I expect at least 1 goal from Burnley in this game. Even though Everton in away games sometimes defends the result and doesn't play that determined but they tend to do it mostly against top sides. Both teams lost in their last games and I expect them both to go for points here, especially Everton but I don't imagine Burnley to be such a pushover team for them, they will have to score at least twice imo to win. Everton had really hard away schedule playing last 4 games against 4 top teams...if we exclude top teams, Everton on road played twice 2:2 against Bournemouth and Wolves.

Watford - Chelsea BTTS

Chelsea have scored at least a goal in all of their away games this season except against West Ham and I don't find any reason it would change against Watford. Chelsea will be determined to collect points since they unexpectedly lost in their last game. True Chelsea is often solid in defense but I can imagine Watford to score here since their recent shape is very good. At home they scored against Man City, Tottenham and Man Utd but couldn't score against Liverpool but even Wolves didn't score against them while scoring twice against Chelsea. And Watford won against Wolves and also almost got away with a win at Everton, so they are surely very competitive team in recent weeks. I don't see Chelsea having an easy game here and imo they will also need to score at least two goals to win the game. In the last two seasons we could see BTTS when these two meet.

Tottenham - Bournemouth TOTTENHAM -1.5

Tottenham is in great shape in last few games all after they managed to pass the group stage in CL. Not sure but I think they are the first to get away with a win at Everton this season and they did it with style. They obviously can score. On other side is Bournemouth the team I go against in last few weeks, they are imo poor even though they collected another win at home in last round. As I said if Huddersfield had any better scoring skills they would have won the game against Bournemouth. Bournemouth is nothing special in offense and I see lots of vulnerabilities in defense which Spurs should exploit in this game.

Man Utd - Huddersfield MAN UTD -1.5

Not much to say here, if Man Utd will play like they did in last game than this is comfortable win considering they will meet the worst offense of the league. So only two goals will be enough. True the guests defended decently against Everton and Arsenal but with Man Utd determination it should go through. I just hope they didn't have a flash moment in last round and they will get back to old ways winning by 1:0 or something.

GL...and Merry Christmass to y'all!!!

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EPL Predictions

Fulham - Wolves
Wolves 2.25 0-2 FT

Liverpool - Newcastle Utd
Liverpool 1.16 3-0 FT

Tottenham - Bournemouth
Tottenham 1.34 2-1 FT

Leicester City - Manchester City
Manchester City1.36 1-2 FT

Manchester Utd - Huddersfield Town
Manchester Utd 1.25 3-2 FT

Burnley - Everton
Burnley 4.80 1-0 FT

Crystal Palace - Cardiff City
Crystal Palace 1.65 2-1 FT

Brighton - Arsenal
Arsenal 1.68 0-3 FT

Watford - Chelsea
Chelsea 1.68 0-2 FT

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Chelsea have scored in each of their last 5 away matches in Premier League.
Fulham conceded at least 1 goal in 100% of their home matches in Premier League.
Wolverhampton have scored 37% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Everton have conceded 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 matches in Premier League.
Cardiff City have scored 39% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
67% of Leicester City's conceded goals occured in the first half in Premier League.
Liverpool have won their last 7 matches in Premier League.
Newcastle Utd have scored 36% of their goals in the first 15 minutes in Premier League.

You can find interesting 187 Football Betting Streaks for 26.12.2018 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-26-12-2018-12748

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Fulham FC v Wolverhampton

Fulham FC: Ryan Sessegnon (16/1 m, probably in), Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa (11/0 m)

Wolverhampton: Diogo Jota (16/2 m)

 

Burnley FC v Everton FC

Burnley FC: Johann Berg Gudmundsson (14/2 m), Robbie Brady (8/0 m), Steven Defour (6/0 m)(all doubtful), Aaron Lennon (16/1 m), Stephen Ward (3/0 d), Nick Pope (0/0 g)

Everton FC: Andre Gomes (10/0 m), Ademola Lookman (11/0 f), Idrissa Gana Gueye (15/0 m), James McCarthy (0/0 m)(all doubtful)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

West Ham Utd have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches in Premier League.
Southampton conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 8 matches in Premier League.
33% of West Ham Utd's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Southampton conceded at least 1 goal in 75% of their home matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 46 Football Betting Streaks for 27.12.2018 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-27-12-2018-12751

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West Ham v Saints


I just cannot see past a Saints win here. Similar to Man United, the new manager has made a huge difference. Confidence is high, and it is translating into goals. You cannot underestimate how much good that win over Arsenal will do for Saints. Massive confidence builder. 

I would be looking at over goals here. My feeling is Saints will win it. What I do like is that West Ham concede so many 1st half away goals. None of their last 9 away games has been 0-0 by the end of the first half. 

Southampton win and over 2.5 goals is priced at 3.1 and I think it is worth a bet here. Anything over about 2.6 would have been good, so the extra is a bonus. AMAZING what a decent manager with a game plan can do ! 

 

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4 minutes ago, neilovan said:

West Ham v Saints


I just cannot see past a Saints win here. Similar to Man United, the new manager has made a huge difference. Confidence is high, and it is translating into goals. You cannot underestimate how much good that win over Arsenal will do for Saints. Massive confidence builder. 

I would be looking at over goals here. My feeling is Saints will win it. What I do like is that West Ham concede so many 1st half away goals. None of their last 9 away games has been 0-0 by the end of the first half. 

Southampton win and over 2.5 goals is priced at 3.1 and I think it is worth a bet here. Anything over about 2.6 would have been good, so the extra is a bonus. AMAZING what a decent manager with a game plan can do ! 

 

Why not.Just look at the injury list at the West Ham,in defense they didnt rotate for at least 6 match,snodgrass and andreson played last 6,7 match,who will know who will play here,but last time I looked match them against Fulham and I can say,Fulham didnt win because the lack of quality.I will give you an example.Try to run every day for 10 km in one week and I will ask you about your sharpness and energy.I can say Saints will win because the lack of rotation at West Ham.

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1 hour ago, MaliMisko12 said:

Why not.Just look at the injury list at the West Ham,in defense they didnt rotate for at least 6 match,snodgrass and andreson played last 6,7 match,who will know who will play here,but last time I looked match them against Fulham and I can say,Fulham didnt win because the lack of quality.I will give you an example.Try to run every day for 10 km in one week and I will ask you about your sharpness and energy.I can say Saints will win because the lack of rotation at West Ham.

Not sure if we are on the same page or not. I think Saints win here easily.

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Wow, amazing. What a flat performance from Southampton. Going a goal up, but never really playing with any belief or intensity. How is it possible that this team can score 3 against Arsenal ? Maybe the small squad is just leggy and exhausted from so many games. Shane Long may run and run, but he is really an ineffective player. Nathan Redman not to good either !

Reinforces the lesson to stay away from mediocre  inconsistent teams.

Man I hate losing money:@

Edited by neilovan

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On 12/24/2018 at 10:20 AM, thfc said:

 

@StevieDay1983- any value in the Cardiff price, maybe again on the handicap?  I was actually looking at this game to back Palace, but was thinking they should be much closer to evens and not such long odds on, which is perhaps an overreaction to their win at Man City.  That result aside, Palace aren't doing much better than Cardiff this season although their form has picked up recently.  Not sure i'm brave enough to back Cardiff away from home, but at 6.00 they are a bigger price than I thought they should be.  

Sorry mate, I've been off on Christmas break. I wasn't initially sure we'd get something but when I saw us line up in the 5-3-2 that I've harped on about for so long I felt we could do it. Both teams will feel they could have won the game but both should be content with a draw. I'll get this weekend's matches up and their previews today.

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