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2018 Ascot Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle - Tips & Trends


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15:35 Ascot 22 Dec 2018

Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)

Previous Winners

Dead Heat 2015 - No Race 2009/10 Snow

Screen Shot 2018-12-18 at 11.56.45.png

Trends
9/10 Aged 6 or under
7/10 Carried 10-13 or more
7/10 Ran within 50 days
15/16 finished in first 4 last time (8 won)
15/16 started 7/1 or higher
14/16 Not ran more than 3 times this season
12/16 Won at 2m

 

 

 

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Running out of time for xmas bonus so it looks like this weekend or nothing ...

Fully rated 

Neitschez   312

Western Ryder    308 

Grand sancy   305 

Lisp 305 

Grand sancy is a novice but could be anything .....I'm tempted to omit but at 20/1 for Nichols....just looks hugely overpriced for a horse on the upgrade .....neitschez 9n paper actually looks a good thing .....won last time beating horses rated 145 152 151 145 including western Ryder and runs here off 132 and low racing weight .....looks incredible value at 14.0 betfair ...western Ryder was behind neitschez and then ran again seemingly cranking neitschez form with horses around him 158 152 150 .....he races off 145 so still looks close to his best .....I think some fantastic value on offer early prices .....worth chancing it for xmas bonus time 

Neitschez  10pts win 14.0 betfair 

Western ryder 10pts win 18.5 betfair 

Grand sancy 5pts win 25.0 betfair 

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OK, just a suggestion, Olly Murphy won the race last year  with Hunters Call, an irish import who won last time out in Ireland. His Fiesole has been nibbled at at 16s, 14s and there is still a bit of 12s abou. E/W 1234. Same profile as last years  year's winner and he knows what it takes to win the race.

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9/10 Aged 6 or under
We lose Jollys Cracked It, Cyrus Darius, Mr Antlini,
Tornado Watch, Man OF Plenty, First Figaro, Chatez.

15/16 finished in first 4 last time (8 won)
We lose Mohaayed, Friday Night Light

7/10 Carried 10-13 or more
We lose Court Royale, Forecast, Lord Napier, Nietzsche, Flying Tiger

7/10 Ran within 50 days
We lose Fiesole, Not Never

14/16 Not ran more than 3 times this season
We lose Fidux, Grand Sancy

No horse has won when running within 7 days
we lose Western Ryder

Selections
1pt  Mont Des Avaloirs 14/1 bet365
1pt  Lisp 12/1 bet365

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