Premier League Predictions > Dec 21st - 23rd

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

It's the last round of Premier League fixtures before Christmas coming up this weekend. It seems that the more interesting games are at the bottom of the table this week with Huddersfield versus Southampton and Newcastle versus Fulham the two corkers. Let us know your tips for these upcoming games! 

[Gedkip]

EPL PREDICTIONS

Wolves - Liverpool
2 (1.53) 1-2 FT

Arsenal - Burnley
1 (1.22) 2-0 FT

West Ham - Watford
1 (2.35) 2-1 FT

Chelsea - Leicester City
1 (1.27) 2-1 FT

Newcastle Utd - Fulham
1 (1.95) 2-0 FT

Bournemouth - Brighton
1 (1.86) 2-1 FT

Huddersfield Town - Southampton
1 (2.60) 1-0 FT

Manchester City - Crystal Palace
1 (1.14) 3-0 FT

Cardiff City - Manchester Utd
2(1.65) 1-3 FT(New coach + post mourinho motivation)

Everton - Tottenham
1(3.40) 3-0 FT

Edited December 21, 2018 by Gedkip
Updated

[Neubs]

Now after Mou was sacked in ManU i think the Players will show a reaction. Pogba and Co will do IF THEY PLAYED all the Time against Mou. So maybe AHC -1 or AHC -1.5 is a try to worth...

[Ameer]

I feel sorry for Cardiff now  

with Mou was sacked in ManU i think will be United win something like 0-2 or 0-3

[Mindfulness]

I had an absolute stinker of a card last weekend. I don't see anything I like too much this week in terms of asian handicap but perhaps that will change as things develop.

For now it's back to the 'drawing board':

 

Huddersfield Town V Southampton

X @ 3.15 Unibet

It was a massive morale booster for Southampton to beat Arsenal at the weekend but the saints might not find so many attacking opportunities against David Wagner's Huddersfield side. It's true that Southampton have the slightly better goal metrics and ELO performance heading into this encounter but my overall view is that this could be a nervy, low scoring affair where both teams cancel each other out.

 

Newcastle Utd V Fulham

X @ 3.60 Betvictor

ELO ratings show no differential here so both teams are closely matched in terms of attacking performance. Key goal metrics between the two teams are also very close right now. Yes, Newcastle clearly have a defensive advantage over Fulham but so does every team in the EPL. Newcastle are rightly favourites here but I don't think Fulham have a noticeable quality disadvantage in terms of personnel. Claudio Ranieri may fancy his chances of getting something from this game in view of Newcastle's tepid attack.

Since the attacking metrics are so closely matched here I feel there is some added value to be had in backing the stalemate at an inflated price.

 

Everton V Tottenham Hotspur

X @ 3.50 Betvictor

Again, very little between the two in terms of ELO performance and key goal metrics. Tottenham are the more ruthless upfront but we've seen Everton run Chelsea and Liverpool close this season and I feel the toffeemen are slowly making progress under manager Marco Silva.

We must bear in mind that Tottenham have the added obstacle of a midweek league cup game to negotiate and that may just hamper their preparations for Everton slightly.

I feel X is the value play here when you consider the circumstances and inflated price.

 

Edited December 19, 2018 by Mindfulness

[thfc]

10 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

Everton V Tottenham Hotspur

X @ 3.50 Betvictor

Again, very little between the two in terms of ELO performance and key goal metrics. Tottenham are the more ruthless upfront but we've seen Everton run Chelsea and Liverpool close this season and I feel the toffeemen are slowly making progress under manager Marco Silva.

We must bear in mind that Tottenham have the added obstacle of a midweek league cup game to negotiate and that may just hamper their preparations for Everton slightly.

I feel X is the value play here when you consider the circumstances and inflated price.

 

FWIW I don't disagree with the pick, though Everton's home form this season is not so good- only drawing with Huddersfield, Newcastle etc and also just scraping a draw with Watford.  They haven't played one of the bigger teams at home yet (Chelsea and Liverpool games were away from home) so it will be a tough test for them.

Just out of curiousity, do you put any weight on spurs not drawing any of their PL matches this season (I think it is 20 in a row without a draw including last season now)?  I guess you could argue they are due a draw, equally you could say the trends are they either win or lose.

 

[Mindfulness]

1 hour ago, thfc said:

Just out of curiousity, do you put any weight on spurs not drawing any of their PL matches this season (I think it is 20 in a row without a draw including last season now)?  I guess you could argue they are due a draw, equally you could say the trends are they either win or lose.

If you mean like a law of averages type play then no not really, I have no info to indicate that Tottenham's drawn column is gonna start filling up anytime soon or that there will be an imminent reversion to the mean.

Sometimes you'll get clear reasons why a team doesn't draw much. A few seasons ago Palace would rarely draw because Pardew was manager. He would never settle for draws and always throw the kitchen sink at games, there would often be late winners (for either side) and I believe Pardew has gone on long consecutive runs of winning and loosing without drawing at more than one club.

One thing I would say is there's a possibility that the X price in Everton V Tottenham is inflated (in my opinion) due to recency bias (Tottenham not drawing very much).

In my view backing teams to draw solely on the basis that they haven't drawn in a while can be dangerous. Unusual trends or trends that are diffiuclt to fathom can go on for a long time, you don't wanna loose your shirt in the process. I tend to look at the specific dynamics between teams when betting and view things on a situation by situation basis.

[thfc]

41 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

If you mean like a law of averages type play then no not really, I have no info to indicate that Tottenham's drawn column is gonna start filling up anytime soon or that there will be an imminent reversion to the mean.

Yeah I wondered if you went for a draw in this one partly on a law of averages type play, i.e. a team hasn't drawn for a while so must be due a draw.   You might well be right in some extra value in the draw price because the bookies are wary of spurs lack of drawing.

I like Everton but they remind me a bit of Wolves- good to watch but a bit toothless up front, they really need a decent striker to compliment their creative players.  I'd certainly be disappointed if spurs lost the match- we have a good record up at Goodison, only losing I think 3 or 4 times since the start of the PL, although a lot of draws in past results too.

 

 

[Mindfulness]

3 hours ago, thfc said:

I like Everton but they remind me a bit of Wolves- good to watch but a bit toothless up front, they really need a decent striker to compliment their creative players.  I'd certainly be disappointed if spurs lost the match- we have a good record up at Goodison, only losing I think 3 or 4 times since the start of the PL, although a lot of draws in past results too.

 

Yes, Everton have good general play but lack a top centre-forward at the moment. I'd also be suprised if Spurs lost on Sunday.

[newjack]

I guess great minds think alike, with mou gone i reckon utd winning by 2+ goals so a decent handicap on them wouldn't be the worst idea IMO.

Same applies for Shampton, they've been dogshit up until the managerial switch where they beat Arsenal 3:2. They can definitely score and are full of motivation that's why i don't like the draw there. I'm leaning Shampton actually, Hudder not that great.

Wolves - Liverpool

I read today that reds want to go unbeaten in this year's EPL run. Of course wanting something and achieving it are 2 totally different terms. Wolves playing style actually fits well for Liverpool. They do like to control the game and in this case should they try to do it Liverpool will punish them. I def like Wolves as a team, but I just can't see them getting anything here. Maybe it's me being biased but still, i might see them scoring a goal vs Pool so O2,5 not the worst pick.

I'll do more analysis on friday when i have the time to analyze whole card.

[mrclubbie]

Since I had plenty of spare time, I decided to look at the past performances for each team during this festive period.

Of course, the relevance is subjective here.

Performance for the match prior to Boxing Day (orange = lose)

 

Edited December 20, 2018 by mrclubbie

[mrclubbie]

Wolverhampton vs Liverpool

Hmm...A top-table team extremely on form against an average mid-table team

Noted that Wolves so far only lost once to top table teams:

25/8 Wolves 1-1 Man City

22/9 Man Utd 1-1 Wolves

04/11 Wolves 2-3 Tottenham

12/11 Arsenal 1-1 Wolves

06/12 Wolves 2-1 Chelsea

 

 

Here's some other stats I checked:

Wolves have won 3 in a row in all competitions - The last time they won 4 in a row was back in Apr'18

Wolves have not win 3 consecutive home match since 2017

Wolves have not record consecutive wins in all competitions against Liverpool since 1980

Wolves lost 0-3 in their last 2 home matches against Liverpool (2011, 2012) - The last time they lost 3 consecutive matches at Molineux against Liverpool was in the 1970s (1976, 1978, 1979)

Edited December 20, 2018 by mrclubbie

[StevieDay1983]

Wolves vs Liverpool

We are treated to a Friday night game in the Premier League this weekend. Mid-table Wolves entertain the league leaders Liverpool at Molineux for this 8pm kick-off. Can the Midlands team continue their revival of form or will the Reds extend their undefeated league run?

Wolves started the season well with just 1 defeat in their opening 8 league games. A slight blip in October and November without a win in 6 league games has now seemingly been put behind them. Nuno Santo's side have now won three league games on the bounce moving them up to 7th in the table and just 1 point behind Manchester United.

Liverpool are excelling this season. Jurgen Klopp's men have set the title pace and are now sitting on top of the table with a 1 point advantage over their main title rivals Manchester City. The Reds are undefeated and have won their last 6 league games in a row.

Despite the recent head-to-head between these two sides being fairly even with 3 wins for Liverpool and 2 victories for Wolves in the last 5 meetings, the travelling side are unbeaten in their last 5 visits to Molineux. Their last defeat away in the league came against Chelsea on 6th May last season.

The home side clearly hate playing on a Friday night. Wolves have lost their last 11 matches played on a Friday in the top flight. Their last top flight win on a Friday night came way back in April, 1965. That's a monkey they'll certainly want to get off their shoulder.

This is a massive opportunity for Wolves though. If they win this game then it will be four consecutive wins in the Premier League. The last time they achieved four wins in a row in the top flight was back in January, 1972. Wolves will also be the 27th team that Klopp has faced in the Premier League. He has earned at least one victory against all of the other 26 sides.

I'm backing this to be an exciting game with both teams attacking each other. Wolves showed against Manchester City that they can cause problems for the big teams. They've ridden the sticky patch and I can see this being a tough one for Liverpool. I think Klopp's side might squeeze a win out here but it won't be easy. 2-1 away win if I was pushed for a correct score.

BTTS @ 2.00 with William Hill

Anytime Scorer: Mohamed Salah @ 1.95 with Betway

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @yossa6133, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, @thfc, @Dboston, @Dr. Florida192, @money44, @1moregoal, @ggm31v, @EuroDream, and @AndreBR, what are you guys looking to bet this weekend?

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

43% of Liverpool's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Premier League.
71% of Wolverhampton's matches had under 2.5 goals in Premier League.
Liverpool have scored in 100% of their away matches in Premier League.
Wolverhampton have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 65 Football Betting Streaks for 21.12.2018 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-21-12-2018-12720

[malabgd]

Wolverhampton v Liverpool FC

Wolverhampton: Diogo Jota (16/2 m)

Liverpool FC: Trent Alexander-Arnold (13/1 d), Joel Matip (8/1 d), Joe Gomez (13/0 d), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[betcatalog]

Liverpool's soccer players' heights, after winning 3-1 on Manchester United in last game's derby. Shortly before the Premier League schedule during the festive season, Clop's team does not want to leave the top, with Manchester City following a step below. But nowadays he has a hard time against Wolves away from home and is expected to show the seriousness that he does not go to the match. An obstacle not easy, but the "Reds" have the form to get what they want from the showdown
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS vs LIVERPOOL FC @@ LIVERPOOL FC, odds 1.53

[four-leaf]

Wolves - Liverpool

Having followed the discussion here I come to the conclusion that Wolves might score a goal here and Liverpool just feels right to nick the 3 points.

BTTS and Liverpool to win @ 3.60 with Unibet

[StevieDay1983]

Cardiff vs Manchester United

I could probably write a 10,000 word presentation on this game with everything that has been going on and said on the forum already but I'll try to keep it brief. It's Cardiff versus Manchester United at the Cardiff City Stadium for this 5:30pm kick-off on Saturday and it will be United's first game with interim manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in charge returning to his former club.

Cardiff are a tough team to beat at home in the Premier League. It's now 4 wins from their last 5 league games at the Cardiff City Stadium. It's a run of home form that is up there with the best teams in the league. This is another tough encounter for the Bluebirds as Neil Warnock's men welcome what could potentially be a rejuvenated United side under Solskjaer.

Manchester United are a mess right now. Jose Mourinho's sacking was expected but still slightly surprising given his past credentials, the multi-million pound compensation required, and the fact the side was still in the Champions League and battling for a top four spot.

Problems run deep at the club though. Many are blaming the board. Mourinho and the players obviously need to shoulder some of the blame but with Mourinho gone I feel like the players are now freed of their shackles. He really didn't get the best out of the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Marcus Rashford, Juan Mata, Anthony Martial, and Paul Pogba. Solskjaer might show the willingness to let them express themselves more and that's potentially concerning for me to consider as a Cardiff fan.

Warnock has never managed to beat United during his previous 7 matches against United. That has consisted of 6 defeats and 1 draw. I just think the new manager bounce will be a factor for United and even though it remains to be seen if Solskjaer will do the job over the next 6 months or not, I am anticipating United to start well under his tenure.

We'll be lucky to keep them to within a goal. If we kill the game then we stand a chance but I think too many people on the pitch and off it have a point to prove for the Red Devils. A fair percentage of Cardiff fans think Solskjaer is incompetent and United will be there for the taking. I think they'll be in for a huge shock.

Manchester United HT/FT @ 2.50 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.83 with MarathonBet

[thfc]

I'm going to go with Burnley +2 (2.15 Coral).  I'm not just saying this because i'm a spurs fan!

Burnley seem to have tightened up defensively of late.  I expect them to play much the same as they did against spurs last weekend, I.e. no ambition at all, 10 men behind the ball etc.  The tactic nearly paid off and this bet would have landed in last weeks game.

Arsenal have defensive problems, so its not inconceivable Burnley don't score.  Burnley have also had the week off, while Arsenal put out a strong team in the league cup on Wednesday and this is quite a quick turnaround, being the Saturday lunchtime game.

I can see Burnley making life tough for them here, and while Arsenal can be good going forward, I don't see them winning by a massive margin.  Arsenal struggled to beat Huddersfield at home recently, only getting a 1-0 win thanks to a late goal, and this seems a similar sort of fixture, where maybe the Arsenal players aren't fully up for playing a team like Burnley. 

Therefore happy to take Burnley at these odds to get something from the game, or at least to only lose by a single goal.

 

[thfc]

I'm also tempted by Wolves +1 at around 2.5.  They tend to play better against the bigger teams (only losing to Spurs so far this season, drawn against both Manchester clubs and Arsenal, and beaten Chelsea).  They have also won the last 3.  

[neilovan]

3 games I fancy in the Premier league.

Huddersfield v Southampton

I think the days of average to bad managers walking into dream jobs in the Premier league are over. Guys like Mark Hughes, Allardyce, Moyes, even Jose have had their time in the premier league. Hughes sacked and gets 6 million pound payoff from Saints. Seriously, he was useless at Stoke, and no better at Saints. Kept Saints up last season... nonsense.

You can see the immediate improvement a good manager brings to a team. A huge win over Arsenal cannot be underestimated. Saints go into this game with a high degree of confidence, and I expect them to win here.

Cardiff v Man United

The second blowout for Mourinho in a Premier league club, in a few years. Obviously, the man creates a toxic environment to work in. If you were earning 100k a week, how long would you put up with someone who seems inconsistent, vindictive, and creates a lousy work environment ? As a United fan, I am happy that Mou is gone. 

Potch will be the next manager, and I really believe that he will turn Man U around rather quickly. Almost similar to what Conte did at Chelsea after Mou was fired.

I am not sure that United can just hit the on-switch against Cardiff and just start winning. Van Gaal did a lot of damage with his negative sterile possession, and Mou with his negative everything. However I do see goals in this game (so does my over 2.5 machine learning software), and would happily lay any 30 minute score, and back the over 2.5 goals here.

Everton v Spurs

I watched the Everton Watford game a few weeks ago, and thought Everton were bang average. They were very lucky to get anything from the game, and were outplayed for large parts of it. How good is Marco Silva? I dunno ... so so for  me.

They have only played bottom half teams at home, and have done OK against them. I would have expected them to beat Huddersfield, Newcastle, West Ham (at beginning of season) and Watford.

I think Spurs are just too well organised and structured and win here relatively easily

 

 

[thfc]

Going to have to go against @Mindfulness this week and back spurs to beat Everton.

Earlier this week, spurs were just over evens, now they are out to 2.3 (William Hill).  What has happened this week to justify the odds drifting to this extent?  Perhaps the bookies think the team will be unsettled with all the Poch to utd talk? 

I've taken a look at Everton's home form and for the teams they have faced at home, it is distinctively average.  An early season loss to West Ham (when they were bottom of the table), and draws with Huddersfield and Newcastle are not the best results for a team of Everton's stature.  They also only scraped a draw with Watford recently thanks to the last kick of the game.

Everton have yet to face a top 6 team at home this season, and haven't managed to get anything out of away games at Arsenal, Man City (fair enough), or even Man Utd.  They did get a good draw at Chelsea and should have had a draw with Liverpool. 

At 2.3, I think there is value in Spurs price and they should be around the evens mark as they were earlier in the week.  Spurs are top of the 'away table' having won 8 out of 10 away PL games, including at teams of a similar calibre to Everton such as Wolves, Leicester and even Man Utd at the moment.  Spurs also have a good record against Everton in recent times, and Poch has only lost once against them in 11 meetings since coming to England.

I think the team will be buoyed by the win in the league cup, and I don't think there is any excuse for tiredness as Poch has done a good job rotating the team recently.  Kane only played 30 minutes on Wednesday so will be relatively fresh.  He has also scored 2 goals in each of the last 3 meetings with Everton.  Son is also scoring, and there is so much pace and creativity in the team that it's hard not to see them scoring at least once against a so-so defence in Everton.  Everton aren't the most clinical team, so 1-2 goals may well be enough to win this one.

Spurs to win at 2.3 is my main pick (William Hill).  I wouldn't put anyone off backing Kane to score anytime in a spurs win at 3.25 (also William Hill)

 

 

[allyhibs]

I'm with @thfc

Tottenham are a level above Everton and have to be backed at these odds.

Tottenham @ 2.30

[allyhibs]

2 hours ago, AWIAW (A win is a win) said:

I can see this ending nil-nil. Call me crazy but over the years I have seen teams switch to the Defensive and go for the one-nil win and come a cropper.

This occurred earlier on in the season for Liverpool against - unbelievably - Man City.

I think Liverpool will be overly cautious. will rely too much on their new approach, and we'll see Wolves happy to sit on the bore draw.

Almost happened in the Everton game.

Also, and this is just me, I cannot see Liverpool winning the Premier League. Which means they have to be pipped to the post come Christmas Day. 

I'm a superstitious girl.

Hello Crazy 

Edited December 21, 2018 by allyhibs

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Arsenal have scored in each of their last 16 matches in Premier League.
Manchester Utd have scored in each of their last 9 away matches in Premier League.
76% of Bournemouth's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Premier League.
Chelsea have been undefeated in their last 9 home matches in Premier League.
67% of Leicester City's conceded goals occured in the first half in Premier League.
Huddersfield have lost their last 4 matches in Premier League.
Southampton conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 7 matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 210 Football Betting Streaks for 22.12.2018 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-22-12-2018-12724

[StevieDay1983]

West Ham vs Watford

I was going to cover Everton versus Tottenham for this final preview but it seems a few of you have nailed it with your thoughts so I'm going to take a deeper look at this match between West Ham and Watford. It's a 3pm kick-off at the London Stadium tomorrow afternoon.

West Ham are starting to settle down under Manuel Pellegrini. The Hammers are in 9th place and have won four consecutive league games. Goals have been the key to this success with West Ham scoring 11 goals in those 4 league games as Pellegrini is starting to get the most out of his attacking players.

Watford might not be doing as well as they were at the start of the campaign but Javi Gracia's men are still performing well enough to hold their mid-table position. The Hornets are in 10th place and only behind the Hammers on goal difference. The 3-2 win against Cardiff last weekend was their first win in the league since 27th October but even that game almost slipped through their grasp as the Bluebirds scored twice late on.

The Hammers dominate this head-to-head record with 14 wins in their last 19 meetings with Watford. The away stats for Watford don't make for much easier reading. Watford have only won 10 of a possible 60 points on the road. The Hornets also haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 7 Premier League games.

The value is with West Ham here. As a Cardiff fan, I can tell you we were dreadful and made Watford look a lot better than they were. Yet we still almost snatched a point. On the contrary, West Ham are just looking better with every game so they have to be backed for the win.

West Ham to Win @ 2.38 with Betfair

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.82 with MarathonBet

[betcatalog]

Very interesting match, we expect to see the reaction of start after Mourinho's departure. The players are now in charge and need to win the weak Cardiff, who easily gets the goals
CARDIFF CITY vs MANCHESTER UNITED @@ MANCHESTER UNITED, odds 1.67

[mrclubbie]

Newcastle vs Fulham

Though both are simply out of form teams, I felt that anything other than a simple Newcastle win will be a surprise here. Ranieri has yet to turn things around other than the 3-2 win over Saints in his first opener match with Fulham and I believe Fulham's away form is the worst out of the top 4 tiers of the English league.

But having said that, bookmarkers offering Newcastle -0.5 seems to be kind of very generous for pundits...Hmm...

I will probably stay away from this match in case Newcastle self-destruct again

Edited December 22, 2018 by mrclubbie

[mrclubbie]

Arsenal vs Burnley

Interesting to wonder how will Arsenal respond to successive defeats in all competitions as they welcome out of form Burnley to the Emirates.

Burnley nearly got a point after frustrating Tottenham last weekend so I believe Dyche will more likely to maintain the similar tactics for this match.

Bookmarkers offering hdp +2 is tempting for me.

 

 

Here's an interesting stat I found out:

Arsenal are unbeaten against Burnley in all the last 10 encounters (9 wins 1 draw) - Arsenal is also on a 8-match winning streak against Burnley in all competitions.

This is the 2nd time that this has happened - The 1st time was between 1967 to 1971.

Similarities:

1) Both streaks consisted of 7 league matches + 1 cup match

2) Both streaks saw Arsenal keeping 5 clean sheets out of the 8 matches

The 8-match winning streak approx. 50 years ago ended with a loss for Arsenal in the 9th meeting.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2018 by mrclubbie