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Non-League Predictions > December 15th


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Last Saturday was pretty dire stuff, but at least the one bet on Tuesday night was a winning won thanks to Dorchester's thrashing of Staines. The National League sides enter the FA Trophy this weekend and there will be a few resting players ahead of a busy Christmas period. I have 5 bets plus a treble and I also have 3 bets in the league action.
 
Previews to follow
 
AFC Telford v Farsley Celtic
Two teams who are in the promotion hunt in their respective leagues although Farsley look the more likely to be in the automatic promotion picture in the Northern Premier League and they have been really impressive in recent weeks. Indeed they are now on an unbeaten run of 9 games in the league. They got a really good win against a good Basford side last Saturday and I think they are capable of causing an upset here. Granted Telford have only lost once at home in the league this season and that only came in their last home game against league leaders Bradford, but I think Farsley are more than capable of making life hard for their hosts and they are over priced in my view.

Aldershot v Bedford

Aldershot's home form is what was keeping them clear of the relegation battle in the National League, but even that has deserted them of late as they have lost their last 2 home games. They are looking over their shoulder's again and I don't think they will fancy this game at all. They are struggling for fit defenders and they are a team under pressure right now given they have only picked up 1 point in their last 5 games. Bedford played in front of 65 people last week (away at bottom side North Leigh) so this will be rather different and they are a step 4 side so that is a big difference, but that is why they are such a big price. They are having a decent enough season so far siting in 6th place. Yes it is a big ask, but this is a real chance for them to cause a huge upset and I think they offer value at the prices.
 
Barnet v Bath City
Barnet are having a good run in the FA Cup and they might be thinking this is a competition they could do well in, but I think they might get knocked out at the first time of asking. Barnet have not been great at home in the league this season having won just 3 times and they have also lost 4 of their last 5 games in the league. Now Bath have only won one of their last 6 league games, but they have only lost 3 of their last 10 so it is hardly like they are in bad form. I think like most National League South sides on their day they are capable of beating anyone in the league and in turn if Barnet fail to turn up at home again then I can see Bath being capable of causing an upset and are a spot of value.
 
Leyton Orient v Beaconsfield
Traditionally clubs who are going for promotion to the Football League have wanted out of the FA Trophy asap. I can't believe that Justin Edinburgh wont rest players for this game and he really won't care if they make it through to the next round or not as it is all about getting promotion. Now obviously in theory they should be winning this, but at a huge price I am happy to take a chance on Beaconsfield. They have only lost 3 league games all season and if Orient do put out a mainly reserve team then Beaconsfield have every chance of causing an upset here. It is worth considering that Orient also lost to in the FA Cup at the first time of asking. 
 
Maidenhead v Oxford City
Maidenhead briefly threatened to improve their woeful form after beating Sutton and drawing with Ebbsfleet, but they have gone back to their poor performances in the last couple of games. There is a strong chance this will be a league game next season as I struggle to see even Alan Devonshire keeping them up. City are inconsistent as is proven by the fact they have won 9 league games and lost 8. That puts them level on points with Bath and as I mention above they are another one of those teams who on their day can be very good as they were when nearly beating Tranmere in the FA Cup. This is a great chance for them to cause an upset and go on another cup run.
 
FA Trophy treble
Not a bet I would usually put up, but given I have so many bets already I thought I would group together the 3 sides at just over evens who I fancy to win on Saturday. Eastleigh are one of the teams I think could end up in the Final as they look a decent side who are in and around the play-offs, but realistically this might be their better chance of getting to Wembley. They travel to Hemel Hempstead and it looks a decent chance for them to get through. Truro v Weston-Super-Mare is a relegation battle in the league, but they also play each other in the Trophy. Truro are playing this back at their old ground so should get plenty of support and they are in decent form at the moment. They did lose 4-0 to Oxford City last Saturday, but they bounced back by beating Slough on Tuesday and that loss is their only one in 7 league games. They look in better nick than Weston at the moment. Dulwich travel to lower league opposition in Wingate and they are struggling in the Bostik Premier and it should be an away win.
 
Hampton & Richmond v Welling (National League South)
Hampton are in really bad form having lost 7 of their last 9 league games. They struggled to beat a 10 man East Thurrock two weeks ago and then played out a dire 0-0 draw with a Gloucester City side who are in even worse form. Welling were well beaten by Torquay last week, but there is nothing wrong with that given how good they are looking right now and it is only their 2nd loss in their last 10 games. This looks the perfect chance for them to get back to winning ways and they should be odds on in my opinion.
 
Lewes v Margate (Bostik Premier)
Lewes are flying at the moment and were impressive in winning on Wednesday over Brightlingsea. That win put them on top of the table and they have now won 8 of their last 10 league games and I like their chances of picking up another 3 points here. Margate are too inconsistent to be challenging for the play-offs this season and they have only won 2 of their last 8 games. Lewes are the better side and they look worth backing at a shade of odds against.
 
Poole v Chesham (Evo-Stik Southern Premier South)
Two in form sides here, but it has been priced up by league positions rather than the fact they are both in form. Chesham were awful at the start of the season, but they have changed things around and now things are on the up as they have only lost one of their last 7 league games and they have won 4 of their last 5. Poole have only lost one of their last 8 so like I say both teams are in form, but at 4/1 I think their is definite value in backing the away side as they are clearly better than their current league position.
 
Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 21/5 with BetVictor
Bedford 0.5pts @ 10/1 with BetVictor & Betfred
Bath City 1pt @ 15/4 with Bet365
Beaconsfield 0.5pts @ 14/1 with BetVictor
Oxford City 1pt @ 13/5 with BetVictor, Betfred & Bet365
Truro/Dulwich Hamlet/Eastleigh 1pt @ 9.1/1 with Betfred
Welling 2.5pts @ 11/8 with Betfred, BetVictor & William Hill
Lewes 2pts @ 23/20 with Betfred
Chesham 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365
Edited by Darran
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Hey Darran, what do you reckon to a potential upset at Barrow by Halifax in the trophy? Barrow been going well recently but they have just lost their top scorer in loanee Ty Smith going back to Sheffield United. We saw last week that Halifax can be difficult to grind down as was the case at Dagenham. Their league positions aren't miles apart and the odds of up to 4/1 on Halifax look too high to me.

Also Solihull away at Southport. Both have midweek FA cup replays that they'll want to prioritise, but crucially the Southport game is on Monday whilst Solihull is on Tuesday. Think Solihull might have a bit better squad depth, so just over evens seems to be value for a game that Southport will surely rest the majority of first-teamers.

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Wouldn’t touch the Southport v Solihull game with a barge pole to be honest. It’s a game both teams will wish they didn’t have to play so every chance they both rest players and Solihull don’t really have that much depth. Think Barrow have improved since they changed their system and although Halifax got a draw last week I still wouldn’t be trusting their away form although wouldn’t disagree that their price is on the high side.

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Adding 4 darts at the FA Trophy outright market only Betway and BetVictor have it priced up and all 0.5pt e/w.

Chesterfield are clearly a team who are hard to beat and although Allen didn't take it seriously at Barnet they were top of the table then. Chesterfield won't get promoted this season, but a run in the Trophy will help appease fans a bit and give them something to cheer about. They are 20s with Betway.

I put Boreham Wood up last year and will do so again this time around. As they proved against Orient last week they can be pretty hard to beat especially at home so they are always likely to do well in cups. Granted Torquay on paper is a really tough game, but Gary Johnson couldn't wait to exit the competition when at Cheltenham and with Torquay top of the table I reckon he might well feel the same way this time around.. They are 40s with BetVictor.

Ebbsfleet have really improved under Gary Hill and they remind me of Bromley who got to the final last season. As in not quite up to the play-offs but will be capable of going along way in this. They play Dagenham which isn't the easiest game in the world given their improvement as well, but overcome that and it will be a good start. They are 33s with BetVictor.

Dover are a huge price at 50/1 with BetVictor. Again another team who are improving under a new manager and I think they will only get better. Not the easiest draw in the world playing Havant, but they are at home and they are rightly favs to beat them so it is worth a shot at those odds.

Gateshead were on my shortlist and I might well add them if they overcome Salford. Eastleigh would also be another possible team who could go well.

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Dover vs Havant (2) +0.5 1.87

Normally, i wouldn't be backing Havant, but Dover's lineup is really weak and their intent (or lack of it) in this trophy is apparent. 7 changes tonight, with no regular attackers in the lineup, starting an academy player as well, all in all, i see only 4 starters. Havant are no world-beaters, they are in the same zone as Dover in the table, but their lineup tonight is much better, only one non regular in the lineup, Good luck!

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4 minutes ago, cc135 said:

Dover vs Havant (2) +0.5 1.87

Normally, i wouldn't be backing Havant, but Dover's lineup is really weak and their intent (or lack of it) in this trophy is apparent. 7 changes tonight, with no regular attackers in the lineup, starting an academy player as well, all in all, i see only 4 starters. Havant are no world-beaters, they are in the same zone as Dover in the table, but their lineup tonight is much better, only one non regular in the lineup, Good luck!

Pavey starts for Dover so that is one first team striker

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2 hours ago, cc135 said:

Yeah, mate..no doubt he is part of squad, just saying he isn't regular striker for Dover yet. All three appearances were as subs.

Yeah but that’s because he’s only just joined is basically a first teamer though. Will be interesting to see what team they put out in the replay.

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