Premier League Predictions > Dec 15th & 16th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

The Premier League hits us hard again next weekend with a full schedule. Does this count as the festive fixtures yet? Or is it too early? Anyway, Liverpool versus Manchester United is the pick of the matches. What are you guys backing here then?

[Ameer]

my God  Man United +1  

[Roy The Boy]

Now that overrated CL Tournament knock out stage qualification is achieved the Premier league takes centre stage until February I for one am pleased with that.

 

City V Everton. City tasted defeat for the first time this season and they will want to bounce back in style, Everton can be really stubborn but I expect City to come through this one. City Halftime/City fulltime 3/4 Ladbrokes

 

Palace V Leicester. Palace are not hard to figure out, stop a couple of players and you stop them, Leicester will be happy to sucker punch on the counter and I think that will bring 3 points to the Foxes. UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 11/17 188BET

 

Huddersfield V Newcastle. Everytime I think Newcastle will struggle they go and get some kind of result, a match where both teams will be desperate for 3 points and I think that will make it end in a draw. DRAW @ 21/10 BETVICTOR, SPORTINGBET & 188BET

 

Spurs V Burnley.  Spurs will be buzzing having got Through a tough CL Group. That strangely can sometimes have the adverse effect on the team however I don't expect that to happen to Spurs and I think they will see of Burnley quite easily. OVER 3.5 GOALS @ 6/5 BETVICTOR

 

Watford V Cardiff. Watford will fancy this one and most will agree with them on that, Like I always say I like Warnock and actually think he is doing an amazing job with the squad and budget he has, I am going for a draw here. DRAW @ 58/19 UNIBET

 

Wolves V Bournemouth. Finding this one harder than I thought although Wolves are off two good wins and Bournemouth are off of a hammering at home, so logic says a comfy win for Wolves, but if Logic played a part in Football, we'd all be rich. BOURNEMOUTH TO WIN @ 31/10 MARATHONBET, BETFAIR & BETVICTOR

 

Fulham V West Ham. Well Fulham were very poor at Old Trafford and West ham have won 3 on the bounce so confidence will be high, Ranieri will try and make Fulham hard to beat especially at home but I feel Wwest Ham may nick this with the odd goal in 3. OVER 2.5 GOALS @ 9/13 188BET

 

Brighton V Chelsea. Brighton have gotten in to the habit of beating the teams around them and them teams that are expected to struggle. Chelsea are off of a morale boosting home win against City and I see Chelsea continuing here. OVER 3.5 GOALS @ 85/40 BETVICTOR

 

Southampton V Arsenal. I think Southampton are doomed for relegation this year but their hopes are being kept alive by poor form all around them, this seems to be a different Arsenal team this year, little bit of resilience about them although I don't think they will need that in this fixture. I expect them to hold Southampton to nil. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE, NO @ 8/5 BETVICTOR

 

SO ON TO THE BIG WEEKEND GAME. 

Now those that know me know I don't watch this game for reasons I will not divulge  

Liverpool V Man United. Liverpool reached the summit last week and they will fully expect to Beat United and stay there but this fixture vary rarely is straight forward and I was surprised to learn Liverpool have not beaten United at Anfield since 2013, now with all that said that run should come to an end this week, I fully expect the negative Mourinho tactics to be in full effect this Sunday and try to go for a bore draw or a 3 point snatch, But I think Liverpool will come flying out and if they get an early goal that should be that. LIVERPOOL HALFTIME/LIVERPOOL FULLTIME @ 29/20 LADBROKES, BETVICTOR, CORALS, BOYLESPORTS & BETSTARS

 

as always people enjoy your weekend I hope I have been able to help in even a small way, and the darts also starts today, what a good time for sports the festive season is 

[Mindfulness]

Crystal Palace V Leicester City

Leicester City +0 AH @ 2.07 Betvictor

I wanted to wait for the Leicester team news here and annoyingly the price on the away side has shortened but I still think there is some slight value with the foxes.

Both Tomkins and Zaha are suspended for Palace which is a big blow for the home side. The team is not in a good moment having just lost to Brighton and West Ham and frankly Palace are one of the poorest performing home sides in the premier league - I don't really see that changing anytime soon as it's a trend which has persisted for a long time.

Leicester may not be world beaters themselves based on current form but they're cruising along nicely in 9th place and crucially we see the return of Jamie Vardy for Saturday's match at Palace. ELO ratings have Leicester nearly a full goal behind Palace for this game but we already know that Palace's strong attacking performances are not matched with the ability to convert the chances they create. Leicester are much more lethal infront of goal, especially with Vardy in the team and key goal metrics have Leicester nearly a full goal ahead of Palace here.

In terms of general play the two teams are on a similar level and generally speaking this should be a closely contested game. For me, Leicester are the more clinical infront of goal and I think if anyone is going to win this contest it will be the away side.

Leicester with full draw cover at odds against seems to be the play here.

 

[Mindfulness]

Southampton V Arsenal

Arsenal -0.25 AH @ 1.74 Betvictor

I'm a little bit suprised to see Arsenal at virtually EVS with some bookmakers here. Unai Emery's side do play midweek in the Europa League but they're at home in a low pressure match and are resting many first team players.

ELO ratings give Arsenal half a goal advantage for the Southampton game but again, Arsenal have the vastly superior chance conversion rate. Key goal metrics give Arsenal a goal and a half advantage here.

Southampton were slicker in possession in their first game under new coach Ralph Hasenhuttl but the south coast team still look bad in both boxes and I think it's a big ask for them to get a positive result against Arsenal at this early stage.

Arsenal with partial draw cover at 1.7 or bigger seems to be the play here.

[Mindfulness]

Wolverhampton Wanderers V AFC Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth +0.75 AH @ 1.75 Betvictor

As @Roy The Boy has already mentioned; this is a difficult match to predict. I do still think that the markets are overzealous with Wolves and I would not make them odds on at home to a Bouremouth side who are the more clinical infront of goal.

To give Wolves their due, they have improved with regards to attacking performance in recent games and this is reflected in their ELO ratings. They have won two league games on the bounce and players like Diogo Jota are starting to get amongst the goals which bodes well for both him and the team going forward at EPL level.

Despite this, we can see that Bournemouth still have a markedly superior chance conversion rate, their ELO performance is getting on for half a goal better and they are marginally ahead on key goal metrics. Striker Callum Wilson is also back in contention to play this weekend which is a big boost for Eddie Howe's team. 

To summarise, we can see that Wolves are in a good moment and their attacking performances are improving. Despite these improvements, Bournemouth are still superior by most if not all key attacking metrics. Should Bournemouth be available on the +0.75 line here? Personally I think the markets are being generous and taking Bournemouth on said asian line @ 1.7 or above seems to be the value play in a match which is hard to predict.

[thfc]

Looks a tough coupon to me.  I think Brighton could be worth backing at home to Chelsea, probably with some draw cover for insurance.  Chelsea at 1.5 is way too short against a good home side.  I think the bookies are overreacting to their win against Man City last week.  If they had drawn/lost that game, I think they would be 1.7-1.8 to win this one.

Brighton +1 at around 2.1 would be my pick in this game.

[thfc]

As for my spurs team, I can't find anything I really want to back in that game.  I have a nagging feeling we are due a draw (19 PL games and counting without a draw) against a team like Burnley sooner or later.  This fixture ended in a draw last season.  That said, spurs are looking good at the moment now that key injuries to Eriksen and Alli are clearing up so they should win, but i'm not touching them at 1.2.  You could argue Burnley at 20/1 (BetVictor) offer a bit of value as you don't get outright prices like that in the league very often.

For a bit of interest I will put up Son Heung Min to score anytime at around evens, as he is back in scoring form against a Burnley defence that has been uncharacteristically poor this season.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

West Ham Utd have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 matches in Premier League.
Manchester City have won 100% of their home matches in Premier League.
Crystal Palace have scored 46% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Leicester City have scored in 100% of their away matches in Premier League.
Huddersfield have scored 40% of their goals in the first 15 minutes in Premier League.
Tottenham have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 189 Football Betting Streaks for 15.12.2018 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-15-12-2018-12646

[malabgd]

Manchester City v Everton FC

Manchester City: John Stones (11/0 d), Danilo (1/0 d)(both doubtful), David Silva (14/5 m), Benjamin Mendy (9/0 d), Claudio Bravo (0/0 g), Eliaquim Mangala (0/0 d)

Everton FC: Idrissa Gana Gueye (15/0 m, doubtful), James McCarthy (0/0 m)

 

Crystal Palace v Leicester City

Crystal Palace: Connor Wickham (1/0 f), Scott Dann (0/0 d)(both doubtful), Wilfried Zaha (14/3 f, suspended), James Tomkins (14/0 d, suspended), Christian Benteke (4/0 f)

Leicester City: Ben Chilwell (16/0 d, doubtful), Daniel Amartey (9/0 m), Matthew James (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Gedkip]

EPL 15-16Th DEC PREDICTIONS

Manchester City - Everton
1 (1.23) 2-1 FT

Tottenham - Burnley
1 (1.19) 4-0 FT

Watford - Cardiff City
2 (5.60) 2-3 FT

Wolves - Bournemouth
1 (1.98) 2-1 FT

Crystal Palace - Leicester City
1 (2.58) 2-0 FT

Huddersfield Town - Newcastle Utd
2 (3.00) 1-2 FT

Fulham - West Ham
2 (2.47) 1-2 FT

Brighton - Chelsea
2 (1.50) 0-2 FT

Southampton - Arsenal
2 (1.98) 0-3 FT

Liverpool - Manchester Utd
1 (1.56) 2-0 FT

Edited December 16, 2018 by Gedkip
Missing

[Tiffy]

7 hours ago, thfc said:

Looks a tough coupon to me.  I think Brighton could be worth backing at home to Chelsea, probably with some draw cover for insurance.  Chelsea at 1.5 is way too short against a good home side.  I think the bookies are overreacting to their win against Man City last week.  If they had drawn/lost that game, I think they would be 1.7-1.8 to win this one.

Brighton +1 at around 2.1 would be my pick in this game.

I like your thinking here, and I wouldn't put it past Brighton to get something. I have been to 2 league games at the Amex this season. Man U & Palace, both 3-1 wins, both 3-0 at halftime.

So obviously I'm expecting more of the same here!

ill probably go BTTS, as it seems to be happening in every game so far. CH has a full squad to choose from & confidence will be high.

[StevieDay1983]

Watford vs Cardiff

There are some brilliant posts in this thread already ahead of this weekend's Premier League fixtures. I think we've got a great chance of getting some wins here. My focus turns to Cardiff's trip to Watford this 3pm kick-off this Saturday afternoon at Vicarage Road.

Watford had a stunning start to the season. Things have calmed down a bit now and the early season winning run has been long forgotten. It's now 6 league games without a win. The fans still seem happy with manager Javi Gracia with the club still in 12th place but would a poor result here start to tip the scales in the other direction?

Us Cardiff fans are still just happy to enjoy it all. Neil Warnock continues to have us defying the odds. Our home form is incredible with 4 wins from our last 5 at the Cardiff City Stadium. Our away form is another story with just 1 point, a solemn draw away to 10 man Huddersfield, the only reward on our travels. That said, our performances have deserved more.

In the head-to-head, we possess a superior record to the Hornets. We have won 3, drawn 2, and lost just 1 of our last 6 meetings with Watford. Unfortunately, we've not played since 2014 so it's an archaic record but we'll still use it to our psychological advantage!

The real mountain to climb comes in one statistic. It states that if Cardiff win this weekend then it will be the first time since 1962 that the Bluebirds have won back-to-back matches in the top flight. Worryingly, I'm not confident we can win but I certainly feel we can take a point.

Every game, bar the odd blip such as the 2-1 loss to Burnley at home and the second half of the 4-1 away defeat to West Ham, we are improving. The players are becoming more streetwise for this level and their self belief is growing. I feel we can be a match for most teams this season and heading to an out-of-form Watford this weekend is a great chance to end that awful away form. Can we win? I wouldn't be surprised. I'm going to back us to draw at the very least but I actually think we can snatch something from this game if we go for it.

Cardiff Double Chance @ 2.36 with MarathonBet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.90 with Bet365

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @yossa6133, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, @thfc, @Dboston, @Dr. Florida192, @money44, @1moregoal, @ggm31v, and @AndreBR, what do you guys think of my rose-tinted shout for the Cardiff game? What bets are you likely to go for this weekend?

[EuroDream]

Wolves - Bournemouth HOME WIN @2.0 8/10

Few weeks ago I had a bet that Bournemouth - Huddersfield will be a home win and I was nothing more than lucky. In the last round I suggested that Bournemouth - Liverpool game will end with Liverpool -1.5 and I was 10/10 on that game. Reason is that Huddersfield was all over Bournemouth and that made me realize they are in a poor form. I also said I am going in next few rounds against Bournemouth and @2.0 it is very generous from bookies, I would have expected odds like Watford has @1.65. I think the game will end 2:0 for Wolves. I have not seen Wolves much except some moments from their game against Arsenal which ended 1:1, they seem pretty fine to bet on against weak opponent. If Bournemouth didn't win against Huddersfield(what was more than likely) then they would be on 6 games streak without a win, this way they are 1-0-5 while Wolves picked up two wins against decent opponents and I believe the winning streak will go on. They would also go up in the standings above Everton and Bournemouth.

 

I also think Huddersfield - Newcastle will be BTTS @2.1... Huddersfield seemed just fine to me they just can't finish well enough but they need to score if they have any plans to go up on the standings and Newcastle might be good opponent since Benitez will surely want all three points from this game. Huddersfield was pretty equal with West Ham at home and I believe Newcastle is similar team even though they lost to them 0:3...Newcastle conceded a goal in last 5 games while Huddersfield scored in last 3 home games...they are "waking up"

[Grass Cash]

Cardiff double chance looks like gold, and I hope you win on that @StevieDay1983

Also Bournemouth did not impress me watching them .. wolves are having a good run.. that bet makes some sense Eurodream

Edited December 15, 2018 by money44

[EuroDream]

Yap and Wolves -1.5 as I suggested in previous round is @3.5 and imo it is very possible.... Wolves are good on counters, that is why they are probably decent against top teams and in this game both teams need points since after that Wolves meet Liverpool and Bournemouth will go to Chelsea.

[newjack]

The only thing from keeping me from Bournemouth ML is the fact that Wolves are playing at home which is of huge significance. I really love Bourne and I do fancy backing +0,5 here at 1.85 and a touch on ML however before doing so let's look at this season's stats for both teams:

Wolves:

Scored on avg 1.25 goals at home, conceded 1.38, BTTS happened in 50% of their matches, kept a clean sheet 25% of the time at home.

Bournemouth:

Scored on avg 1.57 goals when away, conceded 1.71 goals, BTTS happened 43% of the time and they kept a clean sheet 29% of the time.

This stats don't exactly encourage an away win, i'd be more inclined into BTS however BTS is priced at 1.69 which is too low for me. Given the fact that WIlson is back i expect a tad heavier Bourne up front and given the fact that both teams can't keep a clean sheet often and conceed 1+ goal on avg and score 1+ i can see a value on Over 2,5 at 1.9 or even better over 2,5&Bts at 2.20.

I do feel we gonna see a winner here.

Other game I like for today is Palace - Leicester. A simple away win at 2.8. With Zaha and Benteke out I don't feel palace has any sort of attack going for them and with recent loss vs spurs they'll be looking for a bounce back (Leicester). With Vardy fit to play again i think they got this. If you're on a scared side i'd go Leicester 0 at 1.96.

Could be value to bet on Man City at home vs Everton. I'm not a fan of big handicaps on big teams as they usually don't cover them however in this case with the loss to Chelsea and Liverpool taking 1st (yeeey) they NEED 3 pts badly and with UCL done till feb they can focus on EPL. Aguero is fit to play and what better way to display dominance is trashing a decent team at home? I watched Eve vs Watford and in all honesty Watford deserved a win there. They worked whole game for it and it should be 2:1 Watford. I don't think Eve can compete with City especially if they decide to press them hard. Just not enough fire power, yet.

 

BOL to all

[newjack]

was so close to an epic day oh well

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Manchester Utd have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 matches in Premier League.
Chelsea have scored 39% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Southampton have failed to win in their last 12 matches in Premier League.
Brighton & Hove have scored in 100% of their home matches in Premier League.
Liverpool have scored in each of their last 8 matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 147 Football Betting Streaks for 16.12.2018 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-16-12-2018-12651

[StevieDay1983]

Southampton vs Arsenal

The 1:30pm kick-off on Sky Sports this Sunday lunch-time comes from St Mary's Stadium where Southampton will be looking to feel that new manager bounce against an Arsenal side that are in rampant form. Can Ralph Hasenhuttl get a big scalp in only his second league game as Saints boss?

It's been nothing short of a dire season for Southampton so far. The club is lingering in 19th place with just one league win to their name this season. Mark Hughes has departed and the "Alpen Klopp" has taken over. His debut match was a disappointing defeat away to Cardiff but he's had some more time with the players so we could see more impact from his methods in this game against the Gunners.

Arsenal are thriving under Unai Emery. The club is unbeaten in all competitions since 18th August. They are still fighting in the Premier League, FA Cup, EFL Cup, and Europa League. Not a bad start to the Emery era. A win here could see the Gunners rise to 4th in the table. It's a big game so their fans will expect a big performance.

The away side have the heavy advantage over their hosts in the head-to-head stakes. Arsenal have won 4, drawn 1, and lost 1 of their last 6 meetings with Southampton. It's also just 2 defeats in their last 17 top flight meetings with Southampton. However, Arsenal have only tasted victory once in their last 7 trips to Southampton in the league.

This is all about this season under Emery and not the spineless away days under Arsene Wenger. This season, Arsenal have scored at least twice in their last seven away matches in the league. The only time they managed a better run of scoring on the road in the league was back in the 1929/30 season.

I'm going to have to back an Arsenal win at the odds being offered. I wasn't impressed with Southampton when we played them. It's going to take some new signings for Hasenhuttl to make any impression on this team. Too many players are suffering from the losing habit with the rot of no self belief firmly set in. I can see the Gunners winning this comfortably by 2-3 goals.

Arsenal to Win @ 1.96 with Unibet

Anytime Scorer: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang @ 2.10 with Paddy Power

[StevieDay1983]

Liverpool vs Manchester United

Just managing to fit this preview in. A massive game in terms of local rivalry when Liverpool host Manchester United at Anfield in a 4pm kick-off later today. It's a rare occasion of recent years that the Reds come into this fixture as heavy favourites. Such has been the tide of change over the past few seasons.

Liverpool are performing brilliantly this season. It's their best chance of a league title since the ill-fated 2013/14 season under Brendan Rodgers. Jurgen Klopp has addressed the issues of fortifying the central midfield, boosting the defensive stability, and adding a reliable (generally!) goalkeeper. The club is 2nd in the table but a win here would see them over-take Manchester City.

Manchester United are continuing their lacklustre campaign. Jose Mourinho's side might be 6th in the league table but given the fact they are a whopping 8 points behind 5th placed Arsenal and spent extortionate sums of money over the past two seasons it's a failing campaign.

The recent head-to-head between these two sides is almost unbreakable. Each side has come away with one win and there have been four draws in their last six meetings. The last time these clubs met in a competitive fixture it was United that prevailed as 2-1 winners.

A sign of the changing times is the fact that this is the most number of points United have been behind their arch rivals Liverpool at any stage of a season since Christmas Eve way back in 1990. That was before the Sir Alex Ferguson era properly took hold and it's been a painful time ever since for Liverpool. Not any more.

It is also the longest unbeaten run Liverpool have experienced during the Premier League years. In fact, the last time they had such a prolific run was back in a run of games that covered across the 1989/1990 and 1990/91 seasons. Even more impressively, Liverpool haven't conceded more than one goal for 19 Premier League matches. The last time they enjoyed such a run was between April 1978 and April 1979.

If Liverpool have addressed their defensive issues then United have seen a whole new set develop this season. Last season, Mourinho's side conceded just 28 goals in 38 league matches. This season, they have already conceded 26 goals this season. I suppose that's what you get when you have to resort to using Phil Jones and Scott McTominay as a central defensive partnership!

Perhaps worryingly, Liverpool are famed for their front three of Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane, and Mohamed Salah but all three have so far failed to score or even get an assist in games against United. That has been when United have been far more defensively stubborn than this season so could this be the season that stat is broken.

I'm going to have to back a Liverpool win here. I think United will probably surprise us like they frequently seem to be doing this season after a poor performance like they had in midweek against Valencia. I just think they struggled against an attacking threat of Manchester City a few weeks back and they'll struggle again here against Liverpool. It might not be a rout but Klopp will be disappointed if his side don't win.

Liverpool HT/FT @ 2.40 with Ladbrokes

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.23 with MarathonBet

[newjack]

I have some fun correct score bets on liverpool match:

3:0, 4:0, 5:0 so hopefully your prediction of under 2,5 doesn't come true @StevieDay1983

[allthethings]

Let's see. Arsenal are different now that Wenger isn't there, they score for fun, Soton are 'orrible. Perhaps that's true. Soton have a decent record at home playing against no one, and despite the poor defending have actually managed five draws in seven matches. Arse are plodding along in 5th, which even with their vaunted attack and refreshed tactics are about where Wenger had them. I'm going to accept the 4.00 odds on the draw. Soton will fight like hell against a would-be top opponent, and Arse will be held to a point if they can be made to slip on the banana peel.

[StevieDay1983]

6 hours ago, allthethings said:

Let's see. Arsenal are different now that Wenger isn't there, they score for fun, Soton are 'orrible. Perhaps that's true. Soton have a decent record at home playing against no one, and despite the poor defending have actually managed five draws in seven matches. Arse are plodding along in 5th, which even with their vaunted attack and refreshed tactics are about where Wenger had them. I'm going to accept the 4.00 odds on the draw. Soton will fight like hell against a would-be top opponent, and Arse will be held to a point if they can be made to slip on the banana peel.

Not far off there, mate! I am still surprised that Southampton got the win there. That's now put the cat amongst the pigeons at the bottom of the table. @newjack, you were nearly there with the 3-0! 

[Mindfulness]

On 13/12/2018 at 6:05 PM, Mindfulness said:

Leicester City +0 AH @ 2.07 Betvictor

 

On 13/12/2018 at 7:39 PM, Mindfulness said:

Arsenal -0.25 AH @ 1.74 Betvictor

 

On 14/12/2018 at 11:03 AM, Mindfulness said:

AFC Bournemouth +0.75 AH @ 1.75 Betvictor

 

[StevieDay1983]

@Mindfulness, I think you've officially become my favourite online person by quoting Brass Eye on a sports betting forum! 

It is a cruel mistress this whole betting on football lark sometimes though isn't it!