Do PL tips really make a profit?

[Moop]

On 12/22/2018 at 1:52 PM, Sir Puntalot said:

@Moop Both Ayr and Wolves were abandoned due to the weather, so it became a single.  

Thanks Sir Puntalot. Appreciate you taking the time to answer my newbie questions. Cheers and Merry Christmas Sir  

[Lemon Silk]

Just to go back to what Systemight posted a few weeks ago, the LLR (longest losing run) is important, mainly to determine stake size, depending on how risk averse you are. For me, the drawdown combined with average winning odds gives an even clearer answer to the size of stake question. Taking the PL strike rate to be 27-28% we can expect a losing run of 30-31 in the worst case scenario. Say we then set our stakes at 2.5% or £25 with a £1,000 bank. Looks good with a 10 bet buffer to boot. Let's say we go on an expected 14 run losing streak and then hit a winner, losing streak over! But what if the winner's only 3/1 ? Sure, you make +3pts profit but you're still down 11 points. Let's say the next day you have another stinker of a day, losing 10 more points. Suddenly the longest losing run staking plan looks extremely shaky. That's without the worst case scenario. Not suggesting anyone here would be foolish enough to use this staking plan and I think Robinmgb is right only using £30 stakes with an £8,000 bank. Sometimes though, it's better to look like a fool than to say nothing

[big punt]

robinmgb, are you leaving out each selection under the 4/1 price range ??? i would be interested in how this goes for you, me personally i'd paper trade keep records before diving into this

[big punt]

also does anyone keep records of the NAP selections from here ??

[BillyHills]

55 minutes ago, big punt said:

also does anyone keep records of the NAP selections from here ??

If you download the results from the Tips page you can view the Naps on a separate tab within the sheet.

[big punt]

how is this going just out of interest? if anyone is still following them/backing them it would be good to hear from you a month on. 

[BillyHills]

Nothing great but we did get the Treble up today

[big punt]

anyone still having a go at these ????????

[Larkin22]

I don't play them all and don't play everyday but I've tracked every time I do use a tip from the list and i'm up since March by a modest amount.

Not sure if thats helpful or not, my stakes vary depending on how well i've been doing recently but I think you'll be hard pressed to find a better set of tips each day. Very thankful to @BillyHills and @Sir Puntalot

[BillyHills]

Quote

 

Terrific card at Chelmsford on Wed night.

710: Indeed 5/1 WON
740: Tropics 5/1 WON
810: Billesdon Brook 5/1 WON
840: Bayshore Freeway 9/2 WON

EW Lucky 15

 

We keep tipping away, we did have a winning Lucky 15 the other day in the daily thread!

All top rated Tips.

Horse feed paid for another month

[MCLARKE]

I do use them when I go to the races and they helped me to make a profit at Stratford last Tuesday and Doncaster on Friday so thanks to BH.

Overall they are on a bit of a losing run at the moment with losses for each of the last 6 months, albeit the ROI is only -3% for the period so still pretty good tipping.

Also last July to September was very profitable so hopefully the losses may be recovered over the next few months.

 

[BillyHills]

Horrendous day on Saturday but bounced back with a 20/1 winner today!!

The life of a tipster eh!!

17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I do use them when I go to the races and they helped me to make a profit at Stratford last Tuesday and Doncaster on Friday so thanks to BH.

Overall they are on a bit of a losing run at the moment with losses for each of the last 6 months, albeit the ROI is only -3% for the period so still pretty good tipping.

Also last July to September was very profitable so hopefully the losses may be recovered over the next few months.