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Europa League Predictions > Dec 13th

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Arsenal vs FK Qarabag

The final round of the Europa League group stage is here. Arsenal have already qualified for the last 32 but this home game against FK Qarabag that is set to kick-off at 8pm at the Emirates Stadium is somewhere I feel a bit of value can be found across the markets.

Arsenal are sitting pretty top of Group E on 13 points from their 5 group games so far. Unai Emery is a master of this competition and he's showing it once again with the Gunners. I believe top spot is already guaranteed due to their head-to-head with Sporting CP but even with a back-up side I'm expected Arsenal to win this well.

FK Qarabag are already eliminated but they've proven they can put up a fight away from home. Gurban Gurbanov's side have taken their only victory in this group when on their travels in a 1-0 win against Vorskla Poltava. It also took Sporting CP 88 minutes to get their second to secure the 2-0 win in the opening group games.

I still think this should be straight forward for Arsenal. A number of youth prospects have thrived in this competition so far such as Rob Holding, Emile Smith Rowe, and Ainsley Maitland-Niles. I expect that to continue. FK Qarabag are no match for even a rotated Gunners side.

Arsenal -1 @ 1.67 with BetStars

Arsenal HT/FT @ 1.73 with Betfair

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Celtic vs RB Salzburg

The final round of group games throws up a tricky game for SPL side Celtic as they welcome Austrian Bundesliga club RB Salzburg to Celtic Park for this 8pm kick-off on Thursday knowing that a draw will guarantee their spot in the final 32 of this competition.

Celtic endured a mixed bag of results at the start of the season as they crashed out of the Champions League during the qualification process and struggled to keep up with the pace of early SPL leaders Hearts. However, Brendan Rodgers has seen his team settle down over the past 6 weeks and they have now gone on an unbeaten run in all competitions since 25th October.

RB Salzburg have looked nothing short of impressive this season. Marco Rose's team haven't tasted defeat at all this season. They have a 100% record in Group B of the Europa League and have won 14 and drawn 3 of their 17 league games so far. They have also progressed to the Quarter-Finals of the Austrian Cup without conceding a goal.

Still, on Thursday night, they face a Celtic side that are undefeated at home since May last season. Rodgers will come into this game confident that his side can grind out the result needed. Given that RB Salzburg have already sealed their spot in the next round as group winners then I imagine they might rotate things up a bit.

Both teams have the attacking power to cause the opposition problems. I can see this being a low-scoring draw and I don't think either side would be disappointed in that outcome. Celtic Park will be bouncing and I'd be astonished if they failed to take something from this match.

Draw @ 3.40 with BetVictor

BTTS @ 1.71 with SportPesa

 

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Europa League

Marseille has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches.
Astana allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 3 matches.
Sarpsborg 08 has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 away matches.
BATE scored over 1.5 goals in last 3 matches.
Videoton has under 2.5 goals in their last 7 matches.
AEK Larnaca has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches.
Bayer Leverkusen has under 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches.
Dynamo Kyiv won their last 3 matches.
Baumit Jablonec has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches.

You can find interesting 92 Football Betting Streaks for 13.12.2018 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-13-12-2018-12626

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Rapid Wien v Rangers FC

Rapid Wien: Sonnleitner (13/3 d), Potzmann (15/0 d), Dibon (5/0 d)(all doubtful), Mocinic (0/0 m), Szanto (0/0 m), Gartler (0/0 g), Pavlovic (9/0 f)

Rangers FC: Barišić (6/0 d, doubtful), Candeias (12/3 f, suspended), Kent (11/3 m), Wallace (1/0 d), Dorrans (1/0 m), Murphy (2/0 f)

 

RB Leipzig v Rosenborg BK

RB Leipzig: Bruma (7/0 m), Emil Forsberg (6/1 m)

Rosenborg BK: Issam Jebali (7/3 f, probably in), Alexander Søderlund (27/8 f, top scorer, doubtful), Nicklas Bendtner (23/5 f, personal reasons), Vegar Eggen Hedenstad (27/0 d), Yann-Erik de Lanlay (17/3 f)

 

Sevilla FC v FK Krasnodar

Sevilla FC: Sarabia (15/5 m, suspended), Kjaer (13/0 d), Aleix Vidal (6/0 d), Gonalons (3/0 m)

FK Krasnodar: Wamberto (17/4 f, doubtful), Ari (10/6, top scorer), Mamaev (10/3 m)

 

Akhisar Bld. v Standard Liège

Akhisar Bld.: Güray Vural (14/2 m, suspended), Mustafa Yumlu (10/2 d), Dany Nounkeu (4/0 d), Daniel Larsson (3/0 m), Jeremy Bokila (2/2 f), Evgen Seleznyov (7/3 f, 2nd top scorer)

Standard Liège: Moussa Djenepo (17/4 m, 2nd top scorer, suspended), Luis Cavanda Cavanda (12/0 d), Sebastien Pocognoli (5/0 d), Merveille Bokadi (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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My parlay for EL today...

Akhisar - Standard Liege AKHISAR DNB @3.2 7/10

Who watched the last game between Akhisar and Fenerbahce will surely know why I am taking this bet. Akhisar won that game 3:0 and believe me when I say that Fenerbahce is not playing that bad at all in terms of offense. On other side is Standard who drew a game against St.Trudiens(offensive side) and lost before that 3:0 to Club Brugge without a shot fired, they were impotent, invisible or whatever you wanna call it(I had BTTS in that game)...Standard has still chances to progress the group but they need a win here and hope for Sevilla not to win. This will all fit just perfectly to Akhisar(what an exotic name, right?:)...it will be just like the game against Fenerbahce who needed points badly since they are in relegation zone. I expect the home team to win but not lose for sure. Why would they finish the competition without points and help Standard?? The odds are great!!!

Rapid Vienna - Glasgow Rangers RANGERS DNB @2.0 5/10

Rapid won both games against Spartak Moscow so they only need a point from this game. All group phase Rangers games when they were on the road were having lots of goals but when they were qualifying for EL there were not many goals. At UFA it was 1:1, at Maribor it was 0:0 and at Osijek it was 0:1. I think Gerrard will turn back to this approach, after all it is what is recognizable for Rangers playing in Europe, rather than risking an open game. Both teams are having problems scoring lately in their domestic competitions. Also Rapid lost all games against teams from top of the standings in their league(Austria Vienna, LASK Linz and St.Polten) and all without a goal scored. And all their home EL games were UNDER 2.5. Since Rapid needs only a point it is always in such games that somehow either they end a draw or the other side gets what they want(Rangers). I believe that Gerrards side will get what they want in a low scoring game. Everything points out for an UNDER 2.5 so why I will not bet UNDER...it is because if Rapid somehow scores Rangers will need two goals and something tells me they will win it so I am going for Rangers DNB. Lower confidence since Rangers didn't collect points in domestic competition when needed and lost the leading position to Celtic...will they lose what they want on both fields?!

Villareal - Spartak Moscow VILLAREAL OVER 1.5 goals (Home team) @1.55 7/10

Even though Villareal is at the bottom of the Primera standings I really dig this team and believe they will climb up. They have goals in them, they could have scored two goals at least against Barcelona but both teams were for some reason not interested in that game. After that they won in Copa Del Rey against Almeria 8:0...to score 8 goals surely means something even though it is a second league team(which few seasons ago was in the first division). Anyway in their last home game they lost 2:3 to Celta Vigo. They were losing 0:3 and in few minutes managed to score 2 goals which was also my bet in that game. Another reason is that Villareal managed to beat Betis 2:1 and Betis is known for solid defense in most of their games. On other hand Spartak games always have goals, they concede a goal in almost every match. They lost at Vienna 2:0 and it is most likely result I see in this game, but it could be 2:1 or 2:2 since they need a win. Villareal is ok with a draw in this game but I believe they will seal the deal with two goals. If they managed to score 3 goals in Moscow I expect at least two at home. Also Spanish teams are very motivated for this competition.

Genk - Sarpsborg 08 BTTS @1.85 6/10

Genk only needs a point from this game to qualify but with a win they would surely be first so I expect them to go for a win and score a goal. Genk scored a goal in all of their home games this season. Out of 15 home games there were BTTS in 9 of them. Besiktas scored there and Sarpsborg 08 by performance is similar to Besiktas. Sarpsborg 08 created more chances in Istanbul than home team and they won against Genk 3:1 at home. If Sarpsborg wins with two goals difference here then Genk would probably be out of the competition. I expect from Norvegian team to attack and eventually score a goal here, after all they play attacking football and it is their only chance here. Genk defense is not that solid lately. Sarpsborg scored a goal in all of their away EL games. Over 2.5 is only @1.55 but I expect a result 2:1 or 3:1 in this game.

Besiktas - Malmo HOME WIN @1.6 8/10

The thing is that Besiktas wins this kind of games when they need it even when they do not perform well. For example in Norway they were 2:0 down what meant they would be probably out of the competition and they turned it around to FT 2:3 in one halftime. I had Besiktas DNB for that game. Besiktas needs to win this because if Sarpsborg wins at Genk they would all be with the same number of points(8) and Besiktas would be out because of a goal difference. Malmo in away games in EL was pretty bad in most of their games but one win over Midtjyland stands out a bit, I think Danish team is playing nicely. They drew at Sarpsborg out of few chances and lost at Genk again with not many chances created. Even though Besiktas drew their last game it was 0:0 and they won over CL team Galatasaray at home 1:0. So they can win against good teams and their defense seems good in last games. I expect a low scoring nerve wrecking late goal win for Besiktas. After all Besiktas played CL last season and it is expected from them to participate in European competition and I rate Turkish championship more competitive than Swedish. Babel is out but there is Quaresma who will grind it out with assist or a goal :)

Sevilla - Krasnodar OVER 2.5 @1.5 7/10

Sevilla is at the very top of the Primera and this season they lost at home only to Getafe and drew one game with Villareal at 0:0. But the important thing is that they perform very well at home in important games. They won all games in EL by huge results 5:1 against Standard, 6:0 against Akhisar, 3:0 against Sigma and one 1:0 against Zalgiris at the start of the season but they had 27(10) chances in that game. They also beat Real Madrid by 3:0. This game is important because if they win they will be first in the group and if they draw they have to hope that Standard will not win their game, so basically they need to win...ALL IN! ON other side is Krasnodar who plays nice attacking football this season and they scored a goal in all of their away games this season. I am sure they will play the same way here. They scored at Zenit St.Petersburg and they won against CL team CSKA Moscow. So Krasnodar is surely a serious task for Andalucians. BTTS&Over 2.5 seems tempting at @2.1 but Sevilla game against Real Madrid is a proof it could go wrong as it is all about how much they will score. This competition is really important to Sevilla and they won it few times already so it is expected from them to go further with a style, with first position. I expect something like 3:1 in this game. I just hope it does not end 1:0 or if both Standard and Sevilla draw their games.

Rennes - Astana HOME WIN @1.6 5/10

Risky bet. Rennes needs to win to go through while Astana is fine with a draw. In this group all teams seem similar and this could be a pure gamble. All though Rennes was more dangerous in their game against Dynamo Kiev they lost it, I expect them again to be dominant and this time to win. They also have two wins in French championship in last games, one of those was against Lyon where Lyon was a huge favorite. This is the reason why I am taking this bet, also Rennes scored against PSG, they won against Bordeaux which played 2:2 against PSG, they score in almost all of their home games etc. On other side Astana drew both away EL games and they are pretty equal in strength to Jablonec so I am expecting a similar result 2:1 or 1:0 for Rennes in this game. Astana also lost to APOEL and Dinamo Zagreb in CL qualifications and they lost their last two away games in domestic championship. I doubt Rennes is much worse. They can score from few chances and do not concede goals(Lyon).

Slavia Prague - Zenit St.Petersburg HOME WIN @1.7 8/10

Zenit is first in the group whatever happens while Slavia Prague needs to win to be sure they will go through. In Copenhagen - Bordeaux game everything can happen so I will focus on this game. I believe Home win is a must take here. True they lost 1:0 in St.Petersburg(I have not watched the game) but check out the statistics...Zenit 6(2) vs Slavia 25(11)...if someone watched the game please tell me that it was not Barcelona there rather than team from Prague. It is also pointing out they can not score, but in Czech league they do, and they won against Copenhagen and Bordeaux and in all of those games they created more chances. Since Zenit will not be interested into this game this is a clear bet imo. Also Zenit picked up few losses in a row in Russian league in last couple of rounds. Unlike Rennes game where there is no value at those odds to risk anything even though Rennes win is expected this one is a must take.

Olympiakos - AC Milan OLYMPIAKOS DNB @1.85 6/10

Olympiakos does not play great but they are determined and that is what is important. Both teams once played in CL and now they are here in EL. Olympiakos drew their last game away to Xanthi even though it was expected that they will win(I was on Oly:) and in the game before that they beat Panionios but what is worrying is that they also conceded a goal. All in all Olympiakos will be very motivated. The trick here is that Milan can lose but not with two goals difference and as I was saying in my Rapid - Rangers preview in this kind of games most of the times it ends up just on that line between win or lose scenario. Since Olympiakos is at home and Milan is not a great traveler and they also come from a scoreless draw against Torino I think it is worth a shot, Oly could just do it enough for the bet to go through but not succeed in passing the group phase. Olympiakos played an equal game against Betis at home and lost by only one goal in Spain. And Betis won in Italy while drew at home to Milan so Betis and Milan might be similar in strength. Since Olympiakos had their chances against Betis at home I will go against very popular AC Milan in this one.

Leipzig - Rosenborg HOME WIN @1.15

Combined odds for this parlay is  @255...I once won @244 so this would be my new record :)

Anyway...this are my suggestions...

GL...y'all!

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Olympiacos has no easy task, but it is required to fight it with all its strength, coming in from the beginning of the match. As far as the predictions are concerned, I will follow the game of AC Milan, which makes many goal goals can be scored both teams
OLYMPIACOS PIRAEUS vs AC MILAN @@ Both team to score, odds 1.75

Things are clear, PAOK only wants to win and wait. Bate has not shown anything special and if PAOK is strong and aggressive, he can take advantage of Tuba and win
PAOK THESSALONIKI vs BATE BORISOV @@ PAOK THESSALONIKI, odds 1.72

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To begin I'm on 2 draws :

Celtic v Salzburg @ 3.4

Slavia Prague v Zenit @ 3.80 

both with Bet365

Both Celtic and Slavia Prague have tough away domestic games following next. and since both need one point to progress a draw without spending too many energies could be an acceptable outcome.

 

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MOL Vidi v Chelsea

MOL Vidi can progress with a win (if BATE don't win in Greece v PAOK) or with a draw (if PAOK wins).

Chelsea, even heavily rotating in every game,have won all 5 EL games so far. Many players haven't been named for this game (Hazard, Azpilicueta, Kante, Arrizabalaga, Cahill, Moses, Kovacic), while some academy graduates have been included in the travelling squad and could be fielded.

I can see some possibility to see an upset here, hence my 2 picks:

BTTS @ 1.95 

MOL Vidi or Draw @ 2.50

with Bet365

 

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13 hours ago, 1moregoal said:

@allthethings this round of the competition is notorious for away upsets.

 

Europa group stage final round upsets, out of 24 games:

 

2012 - 2 HOME, 4 AWAY (one 14/1)   28.6

2013 - 1 HOME, 7 AWAY                   27.0

2014 - 1 HOME, 5 AWAY (one 12/1)   29.0

2015 - 2 AWAY (one 19/1)                   23.0

2016 - 2 HOME, 4 AWAY                    13.8

2017 - 2 HOME, 5 AWAY                     27.4

Even more curious, the last calculation on the right is the total odds for all away upsets per round. Weird huh?

 

Correct, but mostly for smaller underdogs in the range of up to 4.99. Accordingly, I'm on Jablonec at 4.55 among the early kickoffs.

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Never played a Draw before and not today but looking at below 6 for fulltime Draws

Rapid Vienna @3.44

Lazio @ 3.44

Celtic @3.32

Copenhagen @3.36

Fenerbahce @3.36

AC milan @3.36

If I got 2 I would be in profit. 

If wishes were ......

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16 hours ago, 1moregoal said:

@allthethings this round of the competition is notorious for away upsets.

 

Europa group stage final round upsets, out of 24 games:

 

2012 - 2 HOME, 4 AWAY (one 14/1)   28.6

2013 - 1 HOME, 7 AWAY                   27.0

2014 - 1 HOME, 5 AWAY (one 12/1)   29.0

2015 - 2 AWAY (one 19/1)                   23.0

2016 - 2 HOME, 4 AWAY                    13.8

2017 - 2 HOME, 5 AWAY                     27.4

Even more curious, the last calculation on the right is the total odds for all away upsets per round. Weird huh?

 

My database goes back to 2009. With regard to Apollon about to win at 8.65 and BATE at 6.80, here is the final-round tally for all away dogs priced above 5.99:

8-16-50 (11%wins, 22% draws)

After this first slate of games, the numbers are 10-16-54 (13% wins, 20% draws)

Also after the first slate today, with Jablonec and Malmo wins, away dogs under 5.99 are at an even 45% wins.

Edited by allthethings

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8 hours ago, thinkpink63 said:

MOL Vidi v Chelsea

MOL Vidi can progress with a win (if BATE don't win in Greece v PAOK) or with a draw (if PAOK wins).

Chelsea, even heavily rotating in every game,have won all 5 EL games so far. Many players haven't been named for this game (Hazard, Azpilicueta, Kante, Arrizabalaga, Cahill, Moses, Kovacic), while some academy graduates have been included in the travelling squad and could be fielded.

I can see some possibility to see an upset here, hence my 2 picks:

BTTS @ 1.95 

MOL Vidi or Draw @ 2.50

with Bet365

 

2-2, and both picks land :ok

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • Navan 13:00 - Plinth 16/1 EW Betfair
    • Sunday 16/12/2018 NO SELECTIONS
    • Southwell, 12:10, Midnight Bliss, 13/8 PP
    • Joaquim Silva TKO round 3.. pretty exciting fight at the end with alot of heavy shots landed.. Silva had attempted submissions after flurries at the end of round 1 and 2, and then gordon gassed out in the third round after his knee was damaged from a sub attempt in round 2. Silva landed massive body shots during round 3, and then eventually used gordon's head as a punching bag until it was bobbling on a stick..  Gordon won Round 1, and atleast half of round 2 i'd say.. there was successful takedowns from both fighters.. I was impressed with Silva's power, and ability to absorb shots.
    • Carlisle 13.55  REVERANT CUST  6/1 Bet365
    • 12.40 Southwell  CASH TO ASH 1pt win 4/1 PaddyPower BOG
    • 13.00 Navan - Dinaria Des Obeaux - 1 Pt Win @ 7\1 Paddy Power
    • Xpo Universal 12.50 Carlisle 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog) Took an eternity to get off the mark but has since added 2 further wins over hurdles already this month, Thriving and is well weighted if matching that level back over fences.  Allee Bleue 14.35 Navan 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 (bog) Sixth of 9 in handicap chase at Kempton (24f, soft, 11/4). Off 9 months. First run for yard after leaving Philip Hobbs. Expected to be bang there. 
    • Envoi Allen 15.10 Navan 1 Pt Win @ 4\9 (bog) Point winner who won 14-runner bumper at Fairyhouse (16f, good, 4/9) on NH debut 14 days ago, staying on strongly. Will take the beating. 
    • Rangers vs Hamilton I'm going to leave the Hibernian game chat to the man that knows best and focus my attention on the Rangers versus Hamilton match that is kicking off at 3pm at Ibrox on Sunday afternoon. Can Steve Gerrard's men get over their Europa League disappointment with a win against an out of form Hamilton? Rangers are going through a bit of a sticky patch at the moment. The 1-0 loss away to Rapid Vienna in midweek was the third game in all competitions without a win. This was after a 1-1 draw away to Dundee and a 1-0 defeat at home to Aberdeen. The Gers desperately need a win here. It's possible they could move to the top of the table with a win if other results go their way. Hamilton are having a season forget so far. Martin Canning's side are 10th in the table and just 4 points above the relegation play-off spot. It's just 4 wins from their 17 league games so far and survival is already the primary objective. It's 5 defeats in their last 7 league games now and 6 losses in their last 8 away league games. I'm backing a Rangers win. I think they're still a far better side than Hamilton and I think Gerrard will have his men pumped up for this after the midweek gut-wrenching exit from Europe. Hamilton have shown they can still spring the odd surprise but I'm not sure they'll do it here. Draw (Rangers -2) @ 4.00 with Betway Rangers HT/FT @ 1.67 with Betfair
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