StevieDay1983

Champions League Predictions > Dec 11th & 12th

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Here is my take on the last round...and my CL parlay...

Barcelona - Tottenham OVER 2.5 goals @1.5 local

Since Suarez is back in the team Messi seems also interested to play actively, they won against Espanyol with ease and Espanyol is having a good season. Since Espanyol managed to create 15(4) chances in that game so should Tottenham if not more. The thing is Barcelona can score 4 goals themselves but since Tottenham will be determined to win I doubt they will let them score as much as they did to Espanyol. True Tottenham got 4 goals at Arsenal what also goes into our favor and I believe they will score at least once here. Imo the most probable outcome is 2:2. I watched Barcelona - Villareal game and it was completely false Barca, and Villareal had few chances to score even though they also seemed like they didn't even try to win...they played just to finish the game, Messi unmotivated, Barca holding the ball for long time, slow passes etc. against Espanyol is the Barcelona I believe we will see against Tottenham. So for those looking for higher odds I believe OVER 3.5 goals is @2.3 ...Who knows maybe Tottenham somehow will win this and pass the group...and Inter can surprise us with bad performance since PSV will be playing attacking Dutch football I would not touch that game. Inter lost 4:1 at Atalanta, the team that somehow lost to poor Sarajevo at the start of EL campaign.

Monaco - Dortmund AWAY WIN @1.7 local

These teams are on opposite sides in term of their shape so this seems logical. Monaco got some points in last round of French championship but it is all hardly won against weak team. Dortmund on other hand plays nice football and they have beaten another CL team Schalke in the last round of Bundesliga. Schalke is not that bad at all. I doubt Dortmund will calculate here and they will go for a win to try get the first spot in the group and I doubt Monaco will play defensive style football what should fit well to Germans. I like this game more than Atletico to win in Belgium. Most likely outcome 0:2. Dortmund -1.5 is @2.8

Liverpool - Napoli HOME WIN @1.65 local

Nice match up in this one and it might be tricky to play this bet since both teams can score but I think the final result could look as if it was an easy job. Liverpool at home is always a favorite, they will dominate the game, opposite of what it was in Italy. And Napoli is not really a defending team so I believe Liverpool will score at least two goals in this game. Tricky to predict the final result but I would go for 2:1. Liverpool is really lucky to have this last game at Anfield since they are poor away from home this season in CL. I am also picking this bet since Liverpool are legendary club in this competition while Napoli if I am right never got further in CL from Group stage. Ancelotti imo is just a sham.

Parlay:

Barcelona - Tottenham over 2.5 @1.5

Monaco - Dortmund Away Win @1.7

Liverpool - Napoli Home Win @1.65

Crvena Zvezda - PSG Away Win @1.2

Combined Odd @5.1

GL y'all!

 

 

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Liverpool - Napoli, as it is judged which of the two teams will advance to the next phase of the Champions League. Only the victory serves the Clop's team, while Napoli goes through a tie. It is such a profile of the two teams that makes us expect how and how the show, since they have to give a lot and will do everything to qualify. Not that Napoli is inferior to Liverpool, but the bad lies, "Anfield" is unique and may push the "red" to the next stage
LIVERPOOL FC vs SSC NAPOLI @@ LIVERPOOL FC, odds 1.62

Monaco is indifferent, she has no hope of qualifying, she will give weight to her championship. Dortmund is an excellent team, is a pioneer in Germany and will fight for the first place in the group
AS MONACO vs BORUSSIA DORTMUND @@ BORUSSIA DORTMUND, odds 1.75

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Thanks for all your comments and recomendations 

What make me doubt with Dortmund and their intention of get first place, is that their last match at home, they made a bad match, they couldnot win to Brugge and this was their biggest step to finish in first place

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Adding to previous card which contains 3 bets already.

Crvena Zvezda @ odds 17 Vs PSG with 5dimes (.10 unit) Total 4 bets risked 1.10 unit 

Anything can happen in these matches as we have already seen once against Liverpool, and this odds is not really accurate because the fans will want to be happy, and have a very capable team and strategy to win a game at home. Very interesting the price difference on these books when you have large differences in payouts. 5dimes is usually the best odds of any book, or close to it. I have seen bigger odds elsewhere from time time, but they are quite fair and generous with the offerings. 

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UEFA Champions League predictions

Schalke - FC Lokomotiv Moscow
2 (3.75) 0-1 FT

Galatasaray - FC Porto
X (3.30) 1-1 FT

Club Brugge - Atl. Madrid
2 (1.68) 0-2 FT

Monaco - Borussia Dortmund
2 (1.70) 0-2 FT

Barcelona - Tottenham
1 (1.98) 2-1 FT

Inter - PSV
1 (1.35) 2-0 FT

Liverpool - Napoli
1 (1.63) 2-1 FT

FK Red Star Belgrade - PSG
2 (1.17) 0-3 FT

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Reus, Sancho, Witsel and Delaney out for Dortmund...hm...it makes me a bit worried but I am still on Dortmund...I doubt they will not go for a win...even 0:1 is enough for them, they got much more to play than Monaco, first spot in the group

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About the situation in the "Death group" with Liverpool, Napoli and PSG battling for the 2 spots to progress I paste from the Uefa site to make things more clear :

Group C: Liverpool (6) v Napoli (9), Crvena zvezda (4) v Paris Saint-Germain (8)

  • Napoli will be through if they draw, or if they lose and Paris are also beaten.
  • Paris will be through if they win, and are also certain to advance if Liverpool do not gain victory.
  • Liverpool must win to have any chance of progress. If Paris win, Liverpool must win 1-0 or by two goals or more. If Liverpool, Paris and Napoli all finish on nine points, the English club would finish first on the three-way head-to-head, with second place depending on the scoreline at Anfield.
  • Crvena zvezda will finish third if they win and Liverpool lose (Liverpool have a superior head-to-head goal difference).

 

Edited by thinkpink63

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thanks for your great explanation thinkpink63

Yes, EuroDream, with Dortmund I have some doubts because last match at home against Brugge, they didnot show much interest in go for the win and first place. It seemed they were happy with the draw and secure the qualify, leaving out Brugge, but if they have some interest today, they should win but I think I will skip this match, because they didnot make a good performance in match against Brugge

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Barcelona – Tottenham

Tottenham needs to win but Barcelona isnt an easy rival. Barcelona probably wont use their top players, cause in this match they dont need much effort. I think they will win, but Tottenham will desperately try to win here. My bet is under 3.50 @ 2.140 with pinnacle.

 

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20 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Screw it, I'm backing Tottenham Draw No Bet! Let's do this Tottenham!!! 

Love the optimism for Spurs StevieDay1983!  

As a fan, I can't see us doing it.  Yes Barcelona will have a weaker squad but they are at home and have a formidable record in the CL.  I haven't checked but they must have had dead games at home in the CL in the past, and haven't got beat in those games.

Spurs are way too short.  Barcelona at over evens at home doesn't happen very often, so the value is with them in the outrights in my opinion.  Whoever comes in must be one of the 25 CL registered players, so they can't go and put out a youth team or something.  I'm not betting against my own team but 2.1 for Barcelona would be my pick.

I do think PSV have the quality to get something at Inter, although how motivated they are I don't know.  Inter, from what I understand are a bit like an Italian version of Spurs in that they have a relationship for messing things up, so i'm hoping for a PSV favour tonight!

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Champions League

Shakhtar has over 2.5 goals in their last 5 matches.
Viktoria Plzen has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches.
Hoffenheim ended draw their last 3 away matches.
Manchester United has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches.
Manchester City has over 2.5 goals in their last 5 home matches.
Juventus won their last 9 away matches.

You can find interesting 35 Football Betting Streaks for 12.12.2018 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-12-12-2018-12590

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Barcelona - Tottenham

Spurs in great form and all the motivation... Barcelona with a great home record in CL and Messi on the bench... I just have to try these:

Tottenham to lead at HT / Barcelona to win FT (Leo Messi to turn it around for the hosts) and

Barcelona to lead at HT / Tottenham to win FT (Lucas Moura the hero for Spurs and Messi stays on the bench)

Odds of 21-23 for each bet

BTTS seems inevitable so we may get some value even with odds of 1.4

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Valencia vs Manchester United

I've tried to steer clear of making predictions when it comes to Manchester United matches this season but in the final round of group games in the Champions League I've decided to take a risky punt. The Red Devils travel to Valencia in what is essentially a dead rubber for an 8pm kick-off at the Estadio de Mestalla.

Valencia are already in the draw for the Europa League last 32 having failed to reach the second phase but doing enough to finish in 3rd place ahead of Young Boys in Group H. Marcelino's side are struggling to recapture the form of last season. An inability to turn draws into wins has been costly. The club has drawn 11 matches in all competitions already this season. That includes a 0-0 draw when they played United at Old Trafford earlier in the group stage of this competition.

Jose Mourinho's men are starting to build some confidence. Some are still scratching their heads as to how the self-proclaimed "Special One" is still in the role at United. In his defence, the club has already sealed their spot in the last 16 of this competition and they are slowly moving up the Premier League table. It is now 5 matches unbeaten in all competitions. Is the Portuguese man turning it around?

These two clubs have met 7 times in the Champions League. United have notched up 2 wins during those games and the other 5 encounters have ended in draws. Combine that with Valencia's penchant for draws this campaign and you kind of get the feeling we all know where this is going... or is it too easy?!

There are a few other stats to consider. Valencia have lost 4 of their last 6 Champions League matches at home. It's a complete turnaround from previously where they had gone 9 matches unbeaten at home in the competition before that run of defeats. Valencia have also failed to score in 6 of their last 8 Champions League games.

Basically, don't expect a thrilling game. I can honestly see this being an archetypal Mourinho performance with United grinding out a 1-0 win or a diabolical boring draw. If the former happens then it would be the 18th time Mourinho has won by that score-line in the Champions League. Only Sir Alex Ferguson and Carlo Ancelotti have managed it more times. Still, my gut still sways towards a bore draw with neither side having anything to play for. 0-0, 1-1, or 1-0 to United are the realistic possibilities. I'm going to bottle it and go for the draw.

Draw @ 3.40 with Betfair

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.90 with Bet365

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For Starters i will have a  Roma  (0) handicap @ 1.91 (1xbet) 

and BTTS & Over 3.5  on the Lyon Match @ 2.44 as mains ( 1xbet).

Ajax DC looks inviting too as a dessert @ 1.86.

Thats my take for the day (8.6) for the 3 combined but i will take each course on its own.

 

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An indifferent showdown, with no scoring motivation, all we can say is AEK's goal of not ending with zero points in the group. I will bet on the many goals, the two teams, have a total of 23 goals, showing that they have defense issues, can score, and especially if they open the score relatively early
SL BENFICA vs AEK ATHENS @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.75

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14 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Valencia vs Manchester United

I've tried to steer clear of making predictions when it comes to Manchester United matches this season but in the final round of group games in the Champions League I've decided to take a risky punt. The Red Devils travel to Valencia in what is essentially a dead rubber for an 8pm kick-off at the Estadio de Mestalla.

Valencia are already in the draw for the Europa League last 32 having failed to reach the second phase but doing enough to finish in 3rd place ahead of Young Boys in Group H. Marcelino's side are struggling to recapture the form of last season. An inability to turn draws into wins has been costly. The club has drawn 11 matches in all competitions already this season. That includes a 0-0 draw when they played United at Old Trafford earlier in the group stage of this competition.

Jose Mourinho's men are starting to build some confidence. Some are still scratching their heads as to how the self-proclaimed "Special One" is still in the role at United. In his defence, the club has already sealed their spot in the last 16 of this competition and they are slowly moving up the Premier League table. It is now 5 matches unbeaten in all competitions. Is the Portuguese man turning it around?

These two clubs have met 7 times in the Champions League. United have notched up 2 wins during those games and the other 5 encounters have ended in draws. Combine that with Valencia's penchant for draws this campaign and you kind of get the feeling we all know where this is going... or is it too easy?!

There are a few other stats to consider. Valencia have lost 4 of their last 6 Champions League matches at home. It's a complete turnaround from previously where they had gone 9 matches unbeaten at home in the competition before that run of defeats. Valencia have also failed to score in 6 of their last 8 Champions League games.

Basically, don't expect a thrilling game. I can honestly see this being an archetypal Mourinho performance with United grinding out a 1-0 win or a diabolical boring draw. If the former happens then it would be the 18th time Mourinho has won by that score-line in the Champions League. Only Sir Alex Ferguson and Carlo Ancelotti have managed it more times. Still, my gut still sways towards a bore draw with neither side having anything to play for. 0-0, 1-1, or 1-0 to United are the realistic possibilities. I'm going to bottle it and go for the draw.

Draw @ 3.40 with Betfair

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.90 with Bet365

I think a lot will rely on the news coming from Bern about Juventus game. if Juventus don't win (not likely), with a win United can still progress as first of the group. Actually this season there are some dangerous 2nd placed that everybody would like to avoid (Atletico Madrid and Liverpool over all, even if United can't face Liverpool in the round of 16, just like City), but you can for sure avoid Barcelona, PSG, Dortmund, Real Madrid and most likely Bayern.

So I'm going to keep an eye on this in-play rather than pre-match.

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11 hours ago, swasya said:

For Starters i will have a  Roma  (0) handicap @ 1.91 (1xbet) 

and BTTS & Over 3.5  on the Lyon Match @ 2.44 as mains ( 1xbet).

Ajax DC looks inviting too as a dessert @ 1.86.

Thats my take for the day (8.6) for the 3 combined but i will take each course on its own.

 

I would be very cautious with Roma. They are in a big mess right now, bad domestic campaign and manager Di Francesco at big risk to be sacked. If the players aren't with him this is the right chance to get rid of him..

More while Roma is already through as 2nd Plzen can still reach a spot in the EL. They just need a point unless CSKA Moskow win in Madrid.

Roma miss Dzeko, De Rossi and El Shaarawy and some regulars will surely be benched, keeping an eye on the upcoming must win game in Rome vs Genoa.

Another game where I'll keep an eye on for some in-play opportunity.

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Hello everyone, It's been a while since my last post.

Young Boys vs Juventus
Young Boys are going to finish fourth in this group no matter what. Juventus have what to play for. If Man United wins their game with 2-0 or 3-1 and Juve draw is 0-0, 1-1 Man United will go through as first. Juventus will most certainly play with a decent squad, I expect Cristiano Ronaldo to take part as he wants to keep breaking records. The Italian team have won all away games in all competitions this season. In addition, Juventus have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 6 games in all completions.In CL, the Italian giant were leading 3 of their 5 games at halftime. I was leaning to Juventus HT/FT bet, but the odds went down from 2.15 to 2.00. 


My bet for this game is: Juventus to lead at HT 1.952 @Pinnacle

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I would be cautious with Valencia - Man Utd game UNDER 2.5... I know it looks obvious at first sight because of Mourinho and Valencia record this season but I have watched Valencia - Sevilla game and Valencia should have won the game 2:1 imo. They were determined to win but just could't finish well. Considering Man Utd last few games 2:2 at Southhampton and 4:1 against Fulham which didn't let other big teams to score more than 2 goals. This game could also be a goal festival if both sides decide to win...Valencia for the prestige or training or whatever and Man Utd if decides to go for the first spot in the group!

For Young Boys - Juventus...something tells me Swiss team will score in that game, they have goals in them and Juventus is having 5 clean sheets in a row, it must stop sometime. Juventus relaxed and Young Boys determined to prove something in front of their fans. I watched Fiorentina - Juventus game and Fiore had many chances to score...I think they should get one goal from Young Boys.

Ajax - Bayern is obvious and easiest bet today imo... we will see attacking football from both teams and BTTS&Over 2.5 is a good bet....

GL y'all!!

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Great caution by the way

9 hours ago, thinkpink63 said:

I would be very cautious with Roma. They are in a big mess right now, bad domestic campaign and manager Di Francesco at big risk to be sacked. If the players aren't with him this is the right chance to get rid of him..

More while Roma is already through as 2nd Plzen can still reach a spot in the EL. They just need a point unless CSKA Moskow win in Madrid.

Roma miss Dzeko, De Rossi and El Shaarawy and some regulars will surely be benched, keeping an eye on the upcoming must win game in Rome vs Genoa.

Another game where I'll keep an eye on for some in-play opportunity.

Great caution by the way, spot on. thanks

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • Navan 13:00 - Plinth 16/1 EW Betfair
    • Sunday 16/12/2018 NO SELECTIONS
    • Southwell, 12:10, Midnight Bliss, 13/8 PP
    • Joaquim Silva TKO round 3.. pretty exciting fight at the end with alot of heavy shots landed.. Silva had attempted submissions after flurries at the end of round 1 and 2, and then gordon gassed out in the third round after his knee was damaged from a sub attempt in round 2. Silva landed massive body shots during round 3, and then eventually used gordon's head as a punching bag until it was bobbling on a stick..  Gordon won Round 1, and atleast half of round 2 i'd say.. there was successful takedowns from both fighters.. I was impressed with Silva's power, and ability to absorb shots.
    • Carlisle 13.55  REVERANT CUST  6/1 Bet365
    • 12.40 Southwell  CASH TO ASH 1pt win 4/1 PaddyPower BOG
    • 13.00 Navan - Dinaria Des Obeaux - 1 Pt Win @ 7\1 Paddy Power
    • Xpo Universal 12.50 Carlisle 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog) Took an eternity to get off the mark but has since added 2 further wins over hurdles already this month, Thriving and is well weighted if matching that level back over fences.  Allee Bleue 14.35 Navan 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 (bog) Sixth of 9 in handicap chase at Kempton (24f, soft, 11/4). Off 9 months. First run for yard after leaving Philip Hobbs. Expected to be bang there. 
    • Envoi Allen 15.10 Navan 1 Pt Win @ 4\9 (bog) Point winner who won 14-runner bumper at Fairyhouse (16f, good, 4/9) on NH debut 14 days ago, staying on strongly. Will take the beating. 
    • Rangers vs Hamilton I'm going to leave the Hibernian game chat to the man that knows best and focus my attention on the Rangers versus Hamilton match that is kicking off at 3pm at Ibrox on Sunday afternoon. Can Steve Gerrard's men get over their Europa League disappointment with a win against an out of form Hamilton? Rangers are going through a bit of a sticky patch at the moment. The 1-0 loss away to Rapid Vienna in midweek was the third game in all competitions without a win. This was after a 1-1 draw away to Dundee and a 1-0 defeat at home to Aberdeen. The Gers desperately need a win here. It's possible they could move to the top of the table with a win if other results go their way. Hamilton are having a season forget so far. Martin Canning's side are 10th in the table and just 4 points above the relegation play-off spot. It's just 4 wins from their 17 league games so far and survival is already the primary objective. It's 5 defeats in their last 7 league games now and 6 losses in their last 8 away league games. I'm backing a Rangers win. I think they're still a far better side than Hamilton and I think Gerrard will have his men pumped up for this after the midweek gut-wrenching exit from Europe. Hamilton have shown they can still spring the odd surprise but I'm not sure they'll do it here. Draw (Rangers -2) @ 4.00 with Betway Rangers HT/FT @ 1.67 with Betfair
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