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Non-League Predictions > December 1st


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November was a decent month profit wise and December (as long as the weather plays ball) is obviously a very busy month so fingers crossed the decent form can continue. I have 3 FA Cup bets for Sunday and they are all on that thread. I have 5 bets in the 3 National League's for Saturday.

AFC Fylde v Sutton

It was good to finally be on the right side of a bet on Fylde away from home as they had a pretty comfortable time of things in beating now mangerless Hartlepool on Tuesday night. At home they have won 8, drawn 1 and lost just twice and they were to Salford and Leyton Orient. The draw was against Harrogate so we are talking about them only dropping points to the top teams in the division and although Sutton have only lost 4 times they haven't been reaching the levels they did last season. Their last 3 league performances haven't been great although they did come from 2 down to draw 2-2 at Braintree on Tuesday night, but then Braintree are bottom. They lost to Slough on penalties in the FA Cup and Fylde look a cut above to me especially given how strong they are at home. I think they should be odds on so am happy to get involved at 11/10.

Hartlepool v Dagenham & Redbridge

I'm not sure Hartlepool have got either managerial appointments right since they dropped out of the Football League. Fair play to Matthew Bates for keeping them in the division last season especially in very tricky circumstances, but after a solid start things have gone downhill fast and they have lost 6 league games on the bounce. Not surprisingly he got the sack on Wednesday and the club need to get the next appointment right so they can at least give themselves a solid base for next season. In the very short term I am not sure things are going to get any better on Saturday and Dagenham look a hell of a bet at 7/2 to pick up another 3 points. Since the takeover Peter Taylor has been able to spend money and the team has been improving. They have won 5 out of their last 6 games and the only loss was a 1-0 defeat to Sutton. They have only conceded 4 times in their last 6 games and they have been a lot more solid at the back as well as being clinical at the other end of the pitch. These two sides should be much closer to each other in the betting.

Nuneaton v Blyth Spartans

Like Hartlepool Nuneaton are also without a manager at the moment and I think things are going to take some time before the new owner has any effect on the playing side of things. The three draws they got in their last 8 league games were decent efforts, but they lost their other 5 games and 4 of those were by at least 2 goals. Blyth didn't have a great start to the season, but they have shown a big improvement in recent weeks, bar a couple of bad defeats. In their last 8 league games they were their only two losses and they won 5 of those games including against an in form Stockport on Tuesday night. They only picked up 1 point in their first 6 away games, but have picked up 7 in their other 3 which is more proof of their improvement. They should be favourites to win this so the 2/1 is a cracking bet in my view.

Spennymoor v Kidderminster

Spennymoor did us a good turn last week and after a tricky start they really put Halesowen to the sword to beat them 8-2. Now this game will obviously be harder, but Kidderminster's form has really gone downhill in recent weeks. They have only won one of their last 6 league games and York beat them 3-1 in the FA Trophy last week. To be fair their away form has been better than their home form and they have only lost once on their travels, but they drew against Nuneaton in their last away game and I think Spennymoor are looking much the better side at the moment, thus they look a fair bet.

Truro v St Albans

The other team in the double last week were Truro and I am also sticking with them this week back in league action. As I mentioned last week they have been an improved side of late and they are unbeaten in their last 5 league games. They look a decent bet here as I think they should be favourites. St Albans games have been very exciting as their league games have seen 64 goals already, yet strangely their last league game saw them draw 0-0 against Gloucester. That was their first point in 4 games though and it was a poor game. Since then they have been beaten in a replay by Weymouth in the FA Trophy and they look out of sorts at the moment. With a long trip to Torquay ahead of them I think this could be another game they end up with nothing.

AFC Fylde 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365

Dagenham & Redbridge 1.5pts @ 7/2 with Bet365, William Hill and Marathon

Blyth Spartans 2.5pts @ 2/1 with 888sport

Spennymoor 1pt @ 6/4 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway

Truro 2.5pts @ 19/10 with Bet365

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6 hours ago, thinkpink63 said:

Hi @Darran Do you keep stats of the monthly P/L in points?

Keep on with your awesome picks and thanks for sharing :notworthy

I don’t no. The main reason is people will get different prices from what I put them up at sometimes shorter and sometimes bigger. I think there can be a lot of willy waving with it as well. If I was charging for it then I would obviously put a rough profit up, but it’s free and I think if people want to know the history they can look through my posts on here. I could say I was 100pts up and no one is going to check it. If I wasn’t making a profit then I wouldn’t do it because I know people put their hard earned cash down. Indeed when things haven’t gone well in the past I have taken a back seat. 

Edited by Darran
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20 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

How about Torquay away at Dulwich? Been in great form apart from the draw at Weston, scoring for fun. Marathon got them at 109/100.

I do think the league is between Torquay and Billericay but this is a tough game for Torquay as Dulwich are definitely better than their league position suggests. I’d make Torquay slight favs but there is no value in the price for me.

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Braintree vs Barrow (2) -0.25 1.99 1u

Quite a number of missings for Braintree today, making four changes and basially missing all strikers. Barrow were well worth their point last game vs Wrexham and are with their best possible lineup. Barrow should win this.

Hartlepool vs Daggers (1) 2.08 1u

Hartlepool finally able to start both topscorers Noble and Muir after missing them last games. Daggers are unchanged but their away form are not really inspiring. Pools to win this.

 

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5 hours ago, Darran said:

I don’t no. The main reason is people will get different prices from what I put them up at sometimes shorter and sometimes bigger. I think there can be a lot of willy waving with it as well. If I was charging for it then I would obviously put a rough profit up, but it’s free and I think of people want to know the history they can look through my posts on here. I could say I was 100pts up and no one is going to check it. If I wasn’t making a profit then I wouldn’t do it because I know people put their hard earned cash down. Indeed when things haven’t gone well in the past I have taken a back seat. 

Very good point Darran, there's a sizeable minority out there that would call someone's tipping 'unrealistic' if they could 'only' get 11/5 on what was put up as 9/4 :\ This also happens with the PL Horse Racing Tips, some have shortened by a point or two by the time I back them, some drift and end up winning. These 'terribly misleading' prices have ended up making us over £27k, shocking stuff by these so called tipsters that cost us nothing :eyes:lol

Darran's tips have made roughly +27pts of profit since the first week of November, amazing knowledge of the lower leagues !

Edited by Lemon Silk
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Seems to be a weekly occurrence that there is some late drama with the bets and there certainly was today. Amazing for Dagenham to come from behind and score 2 very late goals, although Fylde blew the lead twice and let a late goal in themselves to stop it being 3/3, but with 7/2 and the Naps wining at 2/1 I will take that! Guaranteed profit for the weekend with the 3 FA Cup tips still come and if at least 1 of those comes in then it will be a very good weekend.

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