StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Nov 30th - Dec 2nd

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The next round of Premier League fixtures are coming up this weekend. A few tasty ties to look forward to including the big games of the weekend of Arsenal versus Tottenham and then Liverpool versus Everton. Check over the odds and ratings above then let us know your choice of bets. :ok

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Huddersfield Town V Brighton & Hove Albion

X @ 3.04 Marathonbet

Huddersfield have been playing with renewed confidence and vitality in recent matches with markets and pundits slow to adjust. Brighton's issues away from the Amex are well documented and perhaps an inability to smuggle clackers and song sheets into opposition grounds has not helped matters.

Despite this I feel Brighton can make life difficult for Huddersfield here and so I prefer X rather than Huddersfield DNB or 0 AH line. We've got to remember that Huddersfield have a weak attack (currently joint worst in EPL along with Palace). Brighton are solid enough to limit the home sides ambitions and so a 0-0 or 1-1 is likely here.

Markets have been quicker to catch on for this match but they will not stop me backing the stalemate here, X @ 3.00 or bigger will do for me.

 

Newcastle Utd V West Ham Utd

X @ 3.32 Marathonbet

A tough game to predict but looking at the technicals we can see these two are closely matched both in terms of ELO and key goal metrics.

Newcastle have won three on the bounce in the league but I don't like backing bottom half teams to go on extended consecutive winning runs in the EPL.

Some could even argue that there is slight value in backing the Hammers on +0.25 AH line here but I think markets have basically got this one right from AH perspective. West Ham's added value is so marginal it's not worth bothering with. We also have to respect the fact that Newcastle are in a good moment and feeling confident.

It's hard to see either side having the supremacy to come away with all 3pts here and because the metrics are so close I feel that backing the draw is the prudent move in this scenario.

 

Edited by Mindfulness

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Cardiff vs Wolves

The Premier League action kick starts this weekend with my beloved Cardiff facing Wolves at the Cardiff City Stadium in an 8pm kick-off. Neither side is stacking up the wins right now and both are in dire need of a victory to get some vital points on the board. Will one side prevail or is this destined to end in a stalemate?

Cardiff are currently in 19th place. Only goal difference is keeping them off the bottom but they are also just one win away from 15th place. It's very tight at the bottom and even though they suffered another loss away to Everton last weekend it was another encouraging display from the Bluebirds.

Wolves are still in a position of mid-table mediocrity but it's now 4 defeats and 1 draw from their previous 5 Premier League matches. Their fans seem confident that they can end that run of results in this game but will their over-confidence here be their downfall?

I'm quietly optimistic that we can get the win here. We really should have got the double over them last season beating them 2-1 early in the season and missing two late pens in the return fixture to lose 1-0 at home. I feel the problem that Nuno Espirito Santo has is that he's kept faith with the same players for too long. Wolves have a cracking starting XI but if they drop form or get worked out then their squad outside of that XI isn't particularly strong.

The way Cardiff have been playing these past few league games I've felt they've deserved more than the points they've earned. Lacking a clinical striker is still our big issue. Until that is resolved then we'll always head into games as underdogs. This is no different. If we can get a goal from somewhere then I'd back us to keep a clean sheet here. The most likely outcome is a draw. However, being a true Bluebird, I'm going to back us for the win!

Cardiff to Win @ 3.90 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.62 with Betfair

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I agree with Cardiff being the value bet in this one.  Wolves are always overrated by the bookies.  They seem to raise their game against the bigger teams, taking points off both Manchester clubs, Arsenal away and nearly getting a draw against spurs recently.  However, when they play the lesser clubs, they don't seem up for it.  I watched some of the their game against Huddersfield last weekend and they were poor.  If you can lose at home to Huddersfield, you can lose to anyone!

Neither team has much of a goal threat which dampens my enthusiasm for Cardiff outright.  But happy to back Cardiff or the draw at 1.7 with William Hill as I don't see Wolves winning.  

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Cardiff City conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 10 matches in Premier League.
Wolverhampton have scored 42% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Cardiff City have failed to score in 43% of their home matches in Premier League.
85% of Wolverhampton's matches had under 2.5 goals in Premier League.

You can find interesting 89 Football Betting Streaks for 30.11.2018 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-30-11-2018-12235

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Cardiff City v Wolverhampton

Cardiff City: Jazz Richards (3/0 d), Gary Madine (5/0 f), Nathaniel Mendez-Laing (3/0 f)(all doubtful), Kenneth Zohorè (6/0 f)

Wolverhampton: Jonny Castro Otto (12/1 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Premier League predictions

Cardiff City - Wolves
2 (2.20) 1-2FT 

Crystal Palace - Burnley
1 (1.62) 1-0 FT

Huddersfield Town - Brighton
X (2.92)1-1 FT

Leicester City - Watford
X (3.30) 1-1 FT

Manchester City - Bournemouth
1 (1.12) 3-0 FT

Newcastle Utd - West Ham
X (3.20) 1-1 FT

Southampton - Manchester Utd
2 (1.90) 1-2 FT

Chelsea - Fulham
1 (1.19) 2-0FT

Arsenal - Tottenham
1 (2.53) 1-0FT

Liverpool - Everton
1 (1.40) 2-1FT

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@StevieDay1983@StevieDay1983

could you answer a question for me please?

I'm interested in how Cardiff set pieces usually play out. I used to back Morrison and did so in an early game where he was winning the first ball but setting up for others rather than going for goal himself. On this occasion Manga scored and i notice Bamba has 2 league goals. Does Manga still go up for free kicks/Corners?

The goal minutes are : Morrison 7 Bamba 5 Manga 1.5

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4 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:

@StevieDay1983@StevieDay1983

could you answer a question for me please?

I'm interested in how Cardiff set pieces usually play out. I used to back Morrison and did so in an early game where he was winning the first ball but setting up for others rather than going for goal himself. On this occasion Manga scored and i notice Bamba has 2 league goals. Does Manga still go up for free kicks/Corners?

The goal minutes are : Morrison 7 Bamba 5 Manga 1.5

I was chatting with my mum about this the other day. She's a season ticket holder down Cardiff. Our set-pieces last season were such a weapon but this season not so much. Morrison has had a few golden chances to score headers. I think in the first game of the season he missed 2-3 point blank headers and it appears to have hit him psychologically. He has been taking on a more withdrawn role at corners by being a flick on and heading back across goal option. Bamba is always worth backing. He's just as likely to win a game as he is to lose a game for us. Manga hasn't ever really been one to back for a set-piece. His game is based more around his anticipation and interception rather than brute physicality. He's been playing full back all season so doesn't tend to be used as physically in attacking plays as he is when he's a centre back. It's only a matter of time before Morrison scores and when he gets one I think it could open the flood gates to 2-3 more. The issue remains delivery though. Camarasa seems like the best set piece taker. It was previously Ralls but he was awful.

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4 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I was chatting with my mum about this the other day. She's a season ticket holder down Cardiff. Our set-pieces last season were such a weapon but this season not so much. Morrison has had a few golden chances to score headers. I think in the first game of the season he missed 2-3 point blank headers and it appears to have hit him psychologically. He has been taking on a more withdrawn role at corners by being a flick on and heading back across goal option. Bamba is always worth backing. He's just as likely to win a game as he is to lose a game for us. Manga hasn't ever really been one to back for a set-piece. His game is based more around his anticipation and interception rather than brute physicality. He's been playing full back all season so doesn't tend to be used as physically in attacking plays as he is when he's a centre back. It's only a matter of time before Morrison scores and when he gets one I think it could open the flood gates to 2-3 more. The issue remains delivery though. Camarasa seems like the best set piece taker. It was previously Ralls but he was awful.

Cheers Stevie-i'd already backed Manga but will also back Bamba-watch Morrison score now:)

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26 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:

Cheers Stevie-i'd already backed Manga but will also back Bamba-watch Morrison score now:)

Manga would be a decent shout in the Championship because he's faster at anticipating balls that drop than most other Championship defenders. He's not got that edge in the Premier League though.

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Looking at the north London derby, I think the outright odds are about right.  If you're pro Arsenal, spurs have only won once at Arsenal in the last 25 years and Arsenal are unbeaten in all comps for about 18 games I think (although a lot of draws).  If you are pro spurs, they have only lost 1 of the last 8 against Arsenal (last year at the emirates 2-0), Harry Kane loves a goal against Arsenal, and spurs have won 7 of 8 away this PL season.  This will be the toughest away fixture to date though.

This game has a reputation for lots of goals which used to be the case.  However, the last 5 meetings between the two at the emirates have been under 2.5, and 3 of the last five at WHL/Wembley have also been under 2.5.  Under 2.5 goals is as big as 2.5. I think that price is too big based on recent history between the two so is worth a go.

The draw looks the most likely result to me and there have been a lot of draws in this fixture in recent times, in fact 3 of the last 4 at Arsenal have finished 1-1.  I can see that result happening again.

Therefore under 2.5 goals is my main play in this game, and a small side bet of 1-1 correct score.

 

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26 minutes ago, mrclubbie said:

Seems that the market is backing Crystal Palace to win, their 1st home league win for this season, against Burnley ?

There's no added value for Palace here. Markets are giving the home side a 60.6% chance of winning and that looks in the right region to me, perhaps a little generous if anything.

ELO ratings favour Palace but I keep telling people that certain teams attacking performances do not translate into goals due to poor chance conversion. Palace's poor chance conversion to revert to the mean? THEY DON'T HAVE ANY STRIKERS!!! They've scored 2 home goals all season for a reason.

Key goal metrics give Burnley half a goal advantage for this game.

Looking at the spirit level of both teams I feel Palace are in the better moment but does that justify the price on Palace? I am skeptical.

It's a match which is highly unpredictable and awkward to analyse. If you put a gun to my head I would back Burnley +1.0 AH but really it should be a no bet scenario for most people.

If you back Palace I will cheer you on but I cannot get involved with the home side myself @ 1.65.

Edited by Mindfulness

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Manchester City vs Bournemouth

I appreciate there are a couple of derby matches on this weekend but you guys will be talking about those enough so I want to spread the love and pick out some value from the other matches in the Premier League. I'm starting with the Manchester City versus Bournemouth clash that kicks off at 3pm this Saturday at the Etihad Stadium.

Manchester City are leading the way in the Premier League with 35 points from their 13 league games so far. It's not exactly unsurprising but it doesn't take away from the fact it's still a mightily impressive start to the season. Pep Guardiola's side have scored 40 goals and only conceded 5 goals during those games. The Citizens are now 2 points clear of second placed Liverpool.

Bournemouth started the season well with just 2 defeats in their first 10 league games seeing them mixing it up with the European qualification candidates. Unfortunately, Eddie Howe's team have fallen short a bit lately with three defeats on the trot in the league. Granted, two of those losses came against Manchester United and Arsenal but the defeat to Newcastle will still be hurting.

City absolutely dominate this fixture having won all six of the previous encounters in the league by an aggregate score of 21-2. Bournemouth have never beaten City in a competitive game before earning just 2 draws and 10 defeats over the years that they have played each other. More worrying is that Bournemouth have conceded 13 goals in their last 3 trips to the Etihad Stadium.

I could go on and on and on about how much the odds favour City here. I'm expecting this City team to show this Bournemouth team no mercy. The Cherries are on a downward turn and this is the last place they want to come. I have a feeling things could get a bit worse for Howe's side before they get better.

Manchester City -2 @ 2.00 with Betfair

Anytime Scorer: Leroy Sane @ 2.20 with Unibet

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I am shocking didn't even realise there was a fixture tonight Shocking. I am venturing away from correctr scores this week, broadening my horizons so to speak 

 

Cardiff V Wolves. Wolves have hit a damp patch and I really fancy Cardiff to get something from this home game tonight, Football under the lights has a different feeling about it. I am going for Draw Half Time Cardiff Full Time @ 15/2 BetFred

 

Crystal Palace V Burnley. Palace will be buoyant after their deserved draw last week at OT and I believe they will be to much for Burnley at home but only just by a slim margin. Under 1.5 Goals @ 4/11 Coral, BetFred, BoyleSports & BetStars

 

Huddersfield V Brighton, Huddersfield are another team whose tails will be up after a great win away at Wolves, they will see this as a fixture they can win and maybe should at home, but Brighton will be looking at this as a place they can pick up away points I think this will be a good battle, both teams to score @ 13/10 SportPesa

 

Leicester v Watford. A hard one to call for me, Leicester at home are hard to beat and Watford can be indifferent could all depend on Watfords approach to the game, will Leicester lure them in before hitting them on the counter which they do so well at the King Power? Watford Half Time Leicester Full Time @ 33/1 with BLACKTYPE

 

Man City V Bournemouth, I see a stat that in the 6 fixtures between the sides, City have scored 21 and conceded only 2, I don't see the pattern changing much, City are always good value to score 3 or more especially at the Eitihad, so with that in mind i'll plump for over 4.5 Goals @ 13/8 BetFair

Newcastle V West Ham. Couple of indifferent sides here you never really know which Newcastle or West Ham team is going to turn up, and I do not see a goal fest here at all, I hate going for 0-0 so instead I am going to opt for no goalscorer in case an OG wins it, so no goalscorer @ 8/1 bet365, BETFRED & 10BET

 

Southampton V Man United. I think if the Saints lose to the Red Devils Mark Hughes will be dismissed and that says a couple of things about this fixture, firstly it shows how badly United are fairing because Southampton will expect to win, secondly Losing to United doesn't usually end with the opposing teams manager losing his job, having said all that I expect United to win and win comfortably. Over 3.5 Goals @ 12/5 Betfair

 

Now am I the only one that gets suspicious that the Premier League Fixture computer randomly throws up these derby fixtures on the same weekend?

 

Chelsea V Fulham. so Chelsea suffered a heavy defeat against Spurs last week and Fulham pulled off one of them first game in charge wins, it will reverse this week, Chelsea will win and win with ease in my opinion, Both teams to score, NO @ 20/21 BETVICTOR

 

Arsenal V Spurs, this fixture intrigues me because both sides are doing better than widely perceived, Spurs will be absolutely buzzing after their defeat of Chelsea last week, and Arsenal will be wanting to show that North London is not ready for a change of dominant colour from Red to White, I sit here thinking this is quite a hard one to predict and I think that because I really do believe it depends on how Spurs approach it, I think maybe a score draw here will be the outcome, so both teams to Score @ 1/2 SportPesa

 

Finally off to Anfield for the Merseyside Derby, a fixture which in recent history especially is heavily in the red half of the city's favour, and sorry Everton fans no change this weekend, Liverpool will be to strong for Everton and I see this being at least a two goal margin so @ Liverpool -1 11/10 SPREADEX

 

That felt really strange not trying for correct scores but thoroughly enjoyable, I hope I have helped in even a small way if you were undecided, now lets go spank the bookies :):):) failing that see you in the pub to drown our sorrows and tell our hard luck tales 

 

 

 

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Crystal Palace have failed to win in their last 8 matches in Premier League.
Manchester Utd have scored in 100% of their away matches in Premier League.
Huddersfield have scored 38% of their goals in the first 15 minutes in Premier League.
Manchester City have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 7 home matches in Premier League.
Leicester City have scored 33% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
35% of Watford's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Premier League.

You can find interesting 184 Football Betting Streaks for 01.12.2018 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-01-12-2018-12251

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9 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

 

It's a match which is highly unpredictable and awkward to analyse. If you put a gun to my head I would back Burnley +1.0 AH but really it should be a no bet scenario for most people.

 

Well if you insist, I do have a Colt 45 at the ready for such an occasion. Perhaps we could do it at half time on Tuesday:ok

Ther are usually plenty of loud bangs when your mob come and visit, so I think it could fit in really well.

Anyway, I can't hang about, I've got overtime, making clackers for the big night!

Have a think and let me know!

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Saturday's games? Don't like anything all that much.

I see potentially value on Man U at 2 away to Shampton. Can't see united not winning this but we know what kind of floppers they can be.

Leicester - Watford that's the other match i kind of like. It's a close call, but i can see 2:1/1:2 type result in this one. So o2,5 at evens seems fair.

Won't touch others today.

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    • EXCLUSIVE: £15 in Free Bets at Quinnbet! £15
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    • 100% Deposit Bonus to £50 at SportNation! £50
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    • EXCLUSIVE: £5 No Deposit Bonus at EnergyBet! £5
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    • Bet £5 Get £20 at Ladbrokes! £20
      18+ New UK+IRE customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4 x £5 free bets. Free bets valid for 4 days on sports, stake not returned, restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
    • Join Betsafe - Great Bookmaker! JOIN
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    • £25 Free Bet at BoyleSports! £25
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    • Join Betsson - Great Customer Service! JOIN
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    • Bet £10 Get £10 Free Bet at ComeOn Sport! £10
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    • Bet £10 Get £20 at Bookee! £20
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    • Bet £10, Get £10 Free Bet at Mr Green Sport! £10
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    • £10 Bonus at Smarkets! £10
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    • £20 Free Bet at Royal Panda Sports! £20
      Free sports bet: Minimum deposit and stake £20 (min odds 2.0). Credited after all qualifying bets settled. T&C's apply.
    • Bet £10 Get £10 at Mobilebet! £10
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    • £300 Cashback or Win an iPad at Spreadex! £300
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    • Grosvenor Sports - Double Odds First Bet! x2
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    • £10 Free Bet Insurance at Genting Bet! £10
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    • £35 Free Bet Bonus at 12Bet! £35
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    • Bet £10 Get £5 at Jenningsbet! £5
      New customers. Min bet £10 at Evens (2.00) if it loses, you get a £5 free bet. 7 day expiry. T&C's apply.
    • £30 in Free Bets at 21Bet! £30
      Place 5 bets of £10 or more at 2.00 (EVENS) or higher and receive a £10 free bet. Repeat every 7 days to get a £10 free bet each week forever. UK only.
    • Bet £10 Get £10 if first bet loses at Black Type! £10
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    • £1000 Cashback + 2% Commission at Betdaq! £1000
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    • £10 Free Bet at SportingBet! £10
      New customers only. Min deposit £10 at odds of EVENS (2.00). If first bet loses, you'll be refunded up to a £10 free bet. Skrill & Neteller deposits don't qualify. Free bet cannot be withdrawn and expires after 7 days.
    • £10 Free Bet at 138.com £10
      New customers only. Deposit and make a first bet of at least £20 at minimum odds of 4/5. Applies to pre-match or in-play single bets only. Should your qualifying bet lose, you will be refunded with a £10 Bonus Token.
    • Up to £50 Bonus at Sport Pesa £50
      New customers. 100% bonus credits to max £50. Min bet £10 at 4/5 (1.80) to qualify. x5 wagering. No E-wallets. T&C's apply.
    • £30 Free Bet at Dafabet! £30
      New customers only. Min bet of £5/€5 at min odds of 1/2 (1.50). Skrill is excluded for this promotion. Dafabet will match the first bet of qualified player up to a maximum of £/€30 if it does not win, as a free bet.
    • £28 Bonus at Fun88! £28
      Stake 6 qualifying bets of at least £10. Min odds 2.00, Multis 1.40. Min stake to qualify £10. Contact customer support to request your Bonus token and credited within 24 hours. T&C's apply.
    • £20 Free Bet at Betfair Exchange! £20
      New customers only, bet up to €/£20 on the Exchange and if your first bet loses, we’ll refund you €/£20 in Cash. Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. T&Cs apply.
    • Up to £1000 Acca Bonus at BetEast! £1000
      ALL customers up to a £1000 acca bonus. 4fold accas minimum. Email to claim within 7 days of settlement. T&C's apply.
    • OLE777 - UK Licensed JOIN
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    • £30 Bonus at TLCBet! £30
      ALL customers! Place 6 qualifying bets of £30. Min odds 2.00 and min stake £10. Bonus will be lowest stake of qualifying bets. T&C's apply.
    • Vernons Sports JOIN
      No sign up offer currently.
    • LeTou Bookmaker JOIN
      No welcome offer at present.
    • Setantabet - Irish Bookmaker JOIN
      No welcome offer at the moment.
    • BetVision JOIN
      No welcome offer.
    Casino 10
    • £200 Bonus + 10 Free Spins at NetBet Casino £200
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    • Up to £1000 Cashback at Rolla Casino £1000
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    • £300 Bonus + 20 Free Spins at Casumo! £300
      18+. New UK customers only. 100% deposit bonus up to £300. Opt-in required. Minimum deposit £10. 20 Free spins on Starburst game upon registration. 30x wagering requirements apply for bonuses and bonus winnings before withdrawal (game weighting applies). Max bet applies. Terms and conditions apply. Please gamble responsibly,
    • £5 No Deposit Bonus at Energy Casino! £5
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      Min deposit £10. x45 wagering, Roulette and blackjack 50% weighting. Bonus Valid 7 days. No using Moneybookers/Skrill or Neteller as a payment method.
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      New UK&IRE customers only. Deposits made with e-wallets are not valid. Bonus wagering x35 on eligible games. Max winnings from bonus £500. Spins available after bonus is redeemed/lost. 10 per day with no wagering.
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    Poker 1
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