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allthethings

FA Trophy - Round of 64 - 24.11.2018

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Dogs to favorites of under 2.00 do well in this round, that is, those priced in the range of 3-something to 4.99. Those away and at the high end of that range tend toward draw: Marske, Wingate, Brightlingsea, York, Witton, Weston, Workington.

The bare underdogs are harder to figure:

Away: Bradford PA, Walton, Needham, East Thurrock, Dulwich

Home: Ashton, Bedford, Lancaster, Pickering

Home dogs the last couple of years have tended toward draw, but prior to that tended to win outright. Away dogs are about split. You pretty much have to guess if you're going to play them. But the upside for guessing right is high...you're getting 4.00 when you get one right, as opposed to 1.80 taking a handicap.

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HT. Been too busy to mark down what I took. 17 matches, so I need to get five right to profit.

Draws...Marske, Wingate, Brightlingsea, York, Witton, Weston, Workington, Bradford PA, Walton, Ashton, Bedford, Lancaster, Pickering, Chester

Wins...Needham, East Thurrock, Dulwich

 

+1.67 units off five draws

A bit annoyed at the poor choices for wins...Needham and Dulwich got draws instead of wins, York, Weston and Workington got wins instead of draws

Edited by allthethings

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1 hour ago, Marek76 said:

Odds on Southport (away at Chester) went down by 35% to the level of 3.0 

What's your view on this @allthethings ?

It has fallen off my list once the favorite is above 2.00 (Chester are 2.12 now).

I pay attention only to large underdogs to favorites of below 2.00...using closing lines. I try to make wagers close to kickoff for this reason, and occasionally I end up taking a side that I shouldn't have. Anecdotally it feels like when this happens the favorite wins more often than not, but that may just be sour grapes.

As odds currently stand, there are six big dogs among the replays, and I expect four of them to get a result.

Edited by allthethings

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Books aren't offering odds, and Lancaster are off. I'm left with

Pickering Town 4.36 and +0.75

Eastbourne 3.35 and +0.25

 

Matches I would have taken

Weymouth ML and HC, Wingate ML and HC, Stamford and Lewes X and HC

Edited by allthethings

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2 hours ago, allthethings said:

Books aren't offering odds, and Lancaster are off. I'm left with

Pickering Town 4.36 and +0.75 loss and half loss

Eastbourne 3.35 and +0.25 win and win

 

Matches I would have taken

Weymouth ML and HC win and win, Wingate ML and HC win and win, Stamford win and win and Lewes X and HC loss and loss

 

Four of six matches won, as I predicted. Damn my two books for not giving me odds on the other four matches.

 

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13 hours ago, Darran said:

Had no idea you had started this thread. I always do the fa trophy stuff in the non league threads as it’s a non league competition in the same way I do the fa Cup qualifiers.

They let you do it because you’re a legend. When I try to do it, they move my Cup stuff to the Cups section.

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I’ve never known the fa trophy stuff to be in here. I just put it in with my other non league tips for last weekend so it wasn’t it’s own thread as such but like I say it makes more sense as it’s a non league competition. I certainly don’t think it’s a case of me being allowed to do my own thing.

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Interestingly, all of last seasons quarter finalists are in tomorrows draw, 7 won yesterday and Gateshead's game with Salford was called off.

Maybe some teams are taking the competition more seriously than others Altrincham had 7 players out yesterday but apparently they had had a flu bug according to their forum or maybe too many hangovers from the teams Christmas party.

Not sure if its still regional or national when the draw is done tomorrow, but deffo going to keep an eye who the last 8 get in tomorrows draw.

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