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"value betting" system


luguss

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I want to start a new thread about "value betting" system and exchange experience, technics, tools, etc.
I 've been using this approach for 3+ years now and this system gave me 21% yield. Actually it's is quite good but I know it could be 2x or 3x better. Just need to improve few things, listen to good advcices, maybe open mind to something new. I hope this thread will help me.

For a good start I describe my approach. In "value betting" the main idea is: if you constantly find value bets, you will be a profitable bettor in the long run. In order to find value, you need to watch the market of "sharp" bookies (like Pinnacle) and capture big odds movements. Dropping odds are happening due to various reasons (fixed game, players injuries, etc).  When Pinnacle drops their odds this is only a matter of time when every other bookie drop their odds too. The whole trick is that you need to be quicker and place a "bet with value" before the odd is dropped.
Obviously the more bookies accounts you have open, the bigger number of odds choices. And obviously you need a good tool for monitoring "sharp" bookies, but there's a big choice on the market (dombetting, oddsportal, etc...)

So, is there anyone using this system ? Can you share your experience, results, and tools you use?

Hope it's only a beginning of a nice topic here :)

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Nice idea. So it's a bit like identifying 'steamers' and backing while the price goes down, in hope the new price represents the 'true' value better than the early price you backed - to get the edge right there. What timeframe you look at when looking at a dropping price - a few hours before KO or days?

Your 21% is amazing, how many bets is that, do you back on the exchange? Did you get that ROI simply based on above idea? I would think that the price just before kick off is more 'real' than earlier prices but your figures might show a different picture.

It should be easy to follow prices..? (oddsmatcher etc)

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