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Premier League Predictions > Nov 24th - 26th


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The next round of Premier League fixtures are still some way off yet but it's never too early to chat about the betting. The big game is between Tottenham and Chelsea. Interested to see how that goes. My Cardiff team faces a tough trip away to an ever-improving Everton side. Would be surprised if we took anything from that game! Let us know your early calls. :ok

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Wolverhampton Wanderers V Huddersfield Town

Huddersfield Town +1.25 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor

I think the AH line has been incorrectly set for this match. Wolves chance conversion issues are already well documented and getting them to clear a big handicap in any EPL game is a big ask for them.

Huddersfield have started the season poorly but have looked more like their old selves in recent matches. You cannot write them off under the guidance of David Wagner, they have the potential to make life difficult for Wolves here. The away side are presently available at 9.0 and this just seems silly to me.

Key attacking metrics give Wolves half a goal advantage heading into this match while ELO ratings actually give Huddersfield half a goal advantage based on recent attacking performance. In my view the Huddersfield +0.75 AH line should be set around 2.00 for this game, we're getting 2.47 at the time of writing this.

Some folks will prefer to take Huddersfield on the +1.0 AH line here and that's fair enough, I will go for +1.25 so I can register a bit of profit in the event of a narrow Wolves win.

It's difficult to see this huge Huddersfield price lasting once the big movers and shakers in the market start to sharpen up the lines.

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Early doors I like the look of this set of fixtures.

I would say Southampton should not be favourites away at any PL team.  Odds may have changed now Ranieri has been made Fulham manager.

I was also thinking this could be a good opportunity to lay Man City after the international break when lots of their players will have played here there and everywhere.  West Ham away won't be the easiest game in the world, so perhaps the home team on the handicap might be a way to play this one.  I know City have a great record at west ham, but its more the circumstances of the game being right after the international break that make me think they may have lost some of their momentum and could be worth opposing.

Watford at home to Liverpool could also be a bit of an upset.  Watford playing well, Liverpool having a bit of a dip and with a big CL game away to PSG to follow.  Again, Watford on the handicap holds plenty of appeal for me.  

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Watford V Liverpool

Watford +1.25 AH @ 1.80 Betvictor

The price is already starting to shorten on the home side so I'm gonna have to pull the trigger now.

Watford are harsh noise at Vicarage Road, their intense midfield press, physical style and decent home support is enough to cause most of their EPL opponents problems this season. It's true that Liverpool could obliterate the majority of teams at EPL level and so fading them with big asian lines still carries risk. Despite this, we have to be brave; key goal metrics do not favour Liverpool that much here and once you factor in home v away dynamics, the disparity between the two sides is even less. ELO ratings also show Liverpool's attacking performance advantage dwindling.

A trip to Vicarage Road is probably not what the doctor ordered for Liverpool after returning from the international break. Watford can make things difficult for their opponents here.

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Think Fulham are too high. Now with Ranieri a new Coach and he´s a good Coach to made the weak Fulham Defensive better. So offensive i think Fulham have some Class, but defensive at the Moment with 31 Goals against them absolut terrible. Now with International Break he have time to change something and also they have for me a little advantage, because they Play against Southampton who have with 8 own Goals a terrible Offensive. So for me i think Fulham is a good Choice...

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1 hour ago, newjack said:

am i the only one that fancies chelsea at spurs at 2.50? seems like an insane price however spurs do like to show up against the bigs

A game that Chelsea are capable of loosing but Sarri's team are light years ahead on key goal metrics and ELO - the technicals favour Chelsea. Despite this, I was expecting both teams to be on a 0 AH line for this game, and that's how they've been priced.

It's a bit of an awkward fixture: weird derby with either side capable of winning, comming off the back of international break. Personally I wouldn't be confident in backing any 1X2 or AH selection with the prices as they are.

GL if you decide to play.

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Good Afternoon Everybody :)

 

Brighton 2 Leicester 1. Brighton are 21/10 to win this one with betvictor I think that is great value they are not a bad side at home with plenty of work, endeavour, and some pinches of quality in there. Obviously Leicester will not be pushovers but I expect Brighton to nick this with the odd goal in three. BRIGHTON TO WIN 21/10 BETVICTOR

 

Everton 2 Cardiff 0. Cardiff will be up after that win before the international break, but I feel Everton at Goodison will be to much for them, but I don't see a hammering, I edged for 2-0 over 2-1 here which I may regret. EVERTON TO WIN 2-0 6/1 BET365

 

Fulham 1 Southampton 2. Fulham this month for me have  caught up in that "the manager is not up to it" web that newly promoted clubs tend to believe and fall for, I think the manager change that can so often inspire victory in a new managers first game but I don't see that here, even though Southampton are poor I think they will nick it. OVER 2.5 GOALS 24/25 MARATHONBET 

 

Man United 2 Palace 1. Think United will edge this but they seem to be on wobbly legs defensively, with anyone looking like they can score against them, however I think the quality of United will shine through, Martial has hit a nice little patch of form and United seem to be settling down a little bit therefore I think they will win this one with a nervy finish. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 21/20 BOYLESPORTS & SPORTINGBET 

 

Watford 1 Liverpool 3. Now this will be a little tougher than the scoreline suggest, Watford seem to be right up for the big games at home, and I think this could be a bit end to end which will suit Liverpool and their flying forward tactics. LIVERPOOL TO WIN 3-1 12/1 BET365

 

West Ham 2 Man City 4. Am I being hopeful that the hammers will get 2?? probably but I see City being comfortable say 3-1 4-1 up and West Ham snatching another, City are head and shoulders above everyone with only Liverpool close in my opinion. OVER 4.5 GOALS 27/10 UNIBET & 888SPORT

 

Spurs 2  Chelsea 2 . On paper easily the game of the week and even as I am typing this I have not put  a score in, I think amongst the big games this season this is probably the hardest to call I think the two sides are very evenly matched and that will probably reflect in the result, I digress as I have still no idea what I want to put. I have ended up going for 2-2 and I am not sure why........2-2 12/1 BETVICTOR, BET365, BETSTARS & 188BET

 

Bournemouth 2  Arsenal 3. Think another tough one to call here but I see the reds of Arsenal having just to much for the Cherries here, and edging home by one goal in a high scoring game, Both sides like the attacking side of the game more than they do defending and I think this will play a big part in the score. OVER 4.5 GOALS 3/1 BETVICTOR, UNIBET, BETSTARS, 188BET & SPREADEX

 

Wolves 2 Huddersfield 0. Just because they are at home I believe Wolves will see this one out, Huddersfield are in no rush to score goals it seems and I see no change here, with Wolves attacking players doing all the damage they need to creep back up the table. WOLVES HALFTIME/FULLTIME 11/8 CORAL & LADBROKES

 

Burnley 1 Newcastle 0. Not the most thrilling of teams here which is why I have gone for a 1-0 home win, which means it will end up 3-3 :). No seriously I see Burnley Scoring early and then hanging on for dear life to there lead, and Newcastle are not the most potent in front of the onion bag. BURNLEY HALFTIME/FULLTIME 4/1 LADBROKES, BETVICTOR & CORAL

 

Good hunting everyone, and if I have helped in any way you are very welcome and if I haven't, please sip a beer it could be worse :) 

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3 hours ago, newjack said:

am i the only one that fancies chelsea at spurs at 2.50? seems like an insane price however spurs do like to show up against the bigs

Chelsea are as big as 2.7 with Marathon.  Spurs a similar price so the bookies don't really know what to expect from this one.

I agree with the bookies this is a difficult game to call and even as a spurs fan I can't really form an opinion on this one.  Spurs have lost at home to Man City and Liverpool, and on that basis I don't think I agree with you that we have showed up against the big teams, as spurs were well beaten in both games even if the score line didn't reflect that.

Gun to head, I would say a draw as I think both teams are fairly evenly matched.  There's only 1 point between them after 12 games which backs the theory the teams are fairly equal in ability.  Spurs are 'due a draw', being the only PL team not to draw yet this season.

Dele Alli has a great scoring record against Chelsea.  He should be back and fit after hardly featuring during the international matches, so maybe for fun Alli anytime scorer could be worth a go at around 4.8 with William Hill.

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I'm going to take a major punt this weekend and say that Liverpool and Man City are worth taking on.  Main reasoning as in my post above (and @Mindfulness post on Watford) and that basically this is as good a time as any (after the international break) to take on Man City.  West Ham can blow hot and cold, but have the players to make the game competitive, while Watford have been playing well all season, and Liverpool have been stuttering a bit and have a big CL game on Wednesday to think about.

Watford +1 at 2.7 and West Ham +2 at 2.2 (both betfair) are my bets.  Also very small stakes on the double at 5.94

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Everton vs Cardiff

The next game up for Cardiff in the Premier League is a tricky away tie against Everton this Saturday afternoon in a 3pm kick-off at Goodison Park. If I'm being honest, I'm not overly optimistic about this one. The Toffees are finding form and our away record is terrible so this could be a painful one for us.

Marco Silva's side only won 1 of their first 6 league matches but things have started to click recently. The Toffees have only lost 1 of their last 6 league games in a run of results that has propelled them to 9th in the Premier League. Their most recent result was a creditable 0-0 draw away to Chelsea and it could be argued they could even have stolen all three points at Stamford Bridge.

Neil Warnock's men have also started showing a more competitive edge. It took the Bluebirds 9 league games to win their first match of the 2018/19 Premier League season. A 4-1 defeat to Liverpool was a harsh score-line given Cardiff had a chance to snatch a draw at 2-1 down. The 1-0 loss to Leicester was also a rare underwhelming performance. However, the 2-1 win against Brighton in their last game was a pragmatic display against a resolute Seagulls side that shut up shop after their sending off.

Unfortunately, I can't see us taking anything from this game. Everton have lost just 1 of their 6 home league games this season where as Cardiff have failed to win a single game away. Their only point was a 0-0 draw against a 10 man Huddersfield side. My correct score prediction is 2-1 here. I think we'll give it a go but will fall just short against a side that is simply more experienced and more capable at this level.

Everton HT/FT @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.90 with Blacktype

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett@KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, and @AndreBR, what do you guys think about this preview and the other betting ahead of this weekend's games?

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EPL PREDICTIONS 24-25 Nov 2018

Brighton - Leicester City
2 (2.48) 0-2 FT

Everton - Cardiff City
1 (1.42) 2-0 FT

Fulham - Southampton
1 (2.55) 2-0 FT

Manchester Utd - Crystal Palace
1 (1.40) 3-0 FT
Over(2.5) 1.74

Watford - Liverpool
2 (1.52) 0-3 FT
Over(2.5) 1.62

West Ham - Manchester City
2 (1.24) 1-2 FT
Over(2.5) 1.38 GG 1.85

Tottenham - Chelsea
X (3.35) 2-2 FT
Over(2.5) 1.70 GG 1.55

Bournemouth-Arsenal
2(2.00) 0-3 FT
Over(2.5) 1.48 

Wolves - Huddersfield Town
1 (1.48) 2-1 FT
Over(2.5) 2.14 GG 2.32

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Brighton V Leicester

some good posts on here this week

I couldn't call the result of this game, but what I have noticed is that since the tragedy at the Kingpwer Stadium a few weeks ago, Leicester have stepped up the ante to honour their Chairman.

Brighton don't tend to get the most corners in a game, even at home, and I think that will most probably follow here.

Leicester's last 2 matches have ended up 24-7 in their favour (corners)

Brighton's last 3 matches have seen them lose 20-6, on corners

I'd be tempted to back Leicester Most Corners - @ 1.8

Also LEICS  -1 Corner Handicap @ 2.3

 

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1 hour ago, Tiffy said:

Brighton V Leicester

some good posts on here this week

I couldn't call the result of this game, but what I have noticed is that since the tragedy at the Kingpwer Stadium a few weeks ago, Leicester have stepped up the ante to honour their Chairman.

Brighton don't tend to get the most corners in a game, even at home, and I think that will most probably follow here.

Leicester's last 2 matches have ended up 24-7 in their favour (corners)

Brighton's last 3 matches have seen them lose 20-6, on corners

I'd be tempted to back Leicester Most Corners - @ 1.8

Also LEICS  -1 Corner Handicap @ 2.3

 

I can see you boys getting the win here, @Tiffy. I was impressed by how organised you were against us both with 11 and 10 men. I wasn't overly awed by Leicester. Felt we gifted the three points and even then they struggled to win the game. Granted, they had a lot going on off the pitch but that won't disappear overnight here. Nice shout with the corners. :ok

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West Ham v Manchester City

West Ham: Robert Snodgrass (12/0 m, suspended), Ryan Fredericks (4/0 d), Andriy Yarmolenko (9/2 f), Carlos Sanchez (5/0 m), Winston Reid (0/0 d), Manuel Lanzini (0/0 m)

Manchester City: Bernardo Silva (12/3 m), Benjamin Mendy (9/0 d), Kevin de Bruyne (3/0 m), Claudio Bravo (0/0 g), Eliaquim Mangala (0/0 d)

 

Tottenham v Chelsea FC

Tottenham: Kieran Trippier (11/1 d), Davinson Sánchez (8/0 d), Mousa Dembele (10/0 m), Danny Rose (6/0 d), Vincent Janssen (0/0 f)

Chelsea FC: Ethan Ampadu (0/0 d), Marco van Ginkel (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Chelsea have been undefeated in their last 5 away matches in Premier League.
Manchester City did not concede any goal in their last 3 away matches in Premier League.
Everton have scored 32% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Fulham conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 5 home matches in Premier League.
Cardiff City conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 9 matches in Premier League.
80% of Liverpool's conceded goals occured in the second half in Premier League.

You can find interesting 197 Football Betting Streaks for 24.11.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-24-11-2018-12168

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9 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I can see you boys getting the win here, @Tiffy. I was impressed by how organised you were against us both with 11 and 10 men. I wasn't overly awed by Leicester. Felt we gifted the three points and even then they struggled to win the game. Granted, they had a lot going on off the pitch but that won't disappear overnight here. Nice shout with the corners. :ok

Thanks StevieD. I can see us getting something, as we can grind a result out these days. 

I've gone for the CORNERS though! 

Cheers

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8 hours ago, Tiffy said:

Thanks StevieD. I can see us getting something, as we can grind a result out these days. 

I've gone for the CORNERS though! 

Cheers

Haha, yes, I saw that. Given the fact you have two of the biggest brick built out houses in the Premier League in Shane Duffy and Lewis Dunk, I'm surprised Brighton don't try and play for more corners. Not that I'm anti-football or anything! :lol

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Fulham-Southampton X 3.10 bet365

So what I can say,worse defense against attackers who have problems to score a goals.I think it will be very boring match today.Ranieri is type of coach which first want a good defense and when I saw line up what I can tell you that he can see like I that fulham cant play with two CB.Both team look like team from championship not from PL and for both of them one point is are like 3 point at the moment.So I you want try under 0.5 goal on match but low stake.

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

75% of Bournemouth's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Premier League.
Arsenal have scored in each of their last 5 away matches in Premier League.
Wolverhampton have scored 42% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
67% of Huddersfield's matches had under 2.5 goals in Premier League.

You can find interesting 153 Football Betting Streaks for 25.11.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-25-11-2018-12175

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Wolves vs Huddersfield

The 4pm kick-off tomorrow afternoon in the Premier League is between mid-table Wolves and bottom-of-the-table Huddersfield at Molineux Stadium. Despite their different league positions, it is the away side that comes into this match with slightly better form after a poor month for the hosts.

Wolves started the new Premier League season with just 1 defeat in their opening 8 league matches. Nuno Espirito Santo has seen results drop off as he has stuck to a consistent starting line-up. It is now no wins in their last four league matches. Are the players tiring? Are Santo's tactics being worked out? Does he not have a plan B?

Huddersfield appeared to be suffering from a major case of second season syndrome. It took until 5th November for David Wagner's men to pick up their first win of the season. They remain bottom of the pile but that win was followed by a spirited draw at home to West Ham so are things on the up for the Terriers?

The international break has definitely come at the right time for Wolves and the wrong time for Huddersfield. The bad news for Wolves is that they have Spanish defender Jonny Otto out injured but Huddersfield can counter that with the one game suspension of Mathias Jorgensen and the injury to Chris Lowe. So both defences will have frailties.

Interestingly, Huddersfield possess the far superior head-to-head record over recent times having won 10 of the last 12 encounters in the league. However, it should be noted that their last meeting in the top flight of English football was way back in 1972. The players lining up in this fixture tomorrow weren't even born back then!

A worrying statistic for Huddersfield fans is that their team have not scored more than a single goal in their last 22 league matches. During that run, they have only managed to score 9 times. So banging them in is not exactly a strength of theirs right now. I can see Wolves being rejuvenated after the international break and I expect them to get back to winning ways here.

Wolves to Win to Nil @ 2.25 with BetVictor

Wolves HT/FT @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes

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9 hours ago, newjack said:

for some reason i read you're betting wolves to win to nil vs arsenal and i thought that you must be drunk but then re-read it and it all makes sense now :D

Hahaha. That wouldn't have been the most obscene tip I've ever posted on here either! What are you thinking for this game, @newjack?

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This game? Wolves should win here easy at least 2:0 so -1 at evens doesn't look bad. I so agree with win to nil as well overall i agree with you. As for the Bourne - Arsenal i really like bourne but arsenal has been crazy good lately with exception of last match. Hard to see any real value here, maybe bourne o1,5 tt at 2.10? on average gunners concieve 1.80 goals when away so might be worth a shot

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Newcastle Utd have scored 67% of their goals in the first half in Premier League.
Newcastle Utd have scored 44% of their goals in the first 15 minutes in Premier League.

You can find interesting 63 Football Betting Streaks for 26.11.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-26-11-2018-12185

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