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StevieDay1983

FA Cup Predictions > Nov 9th - 12th

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It's the FA Cup 1st Round this weekend. One of the most exciting times of the year for football purists as non-league and amateur teams that have had a cracking run through the qualifiers have the chance to write their names into FA Cup folklore by defeating one of the league clubs. Take a look at the odds above and share with us your brave bets for this unpredictable round of games. @sajtion, I hope you've got one of your obscene accas planned! :ok

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Haringey Borough vs AFC Wimbledon

The FA Cup 1st Round is always a scene set for a giant-killing and the Friday night kick-off has often delivered its fair share of shocks over the years. In this year's competition, Isthmian League Premier Division side Haringey Borough will entertain League 1 side AFC Wimbledon in this 7:55pm kick-off at Coles Park.

Haringey Borough are a team that have come to prominence this season with the younger generation due to them owning the home ground of YouTube football team Hashtag United who officially entered the English football pyramid system themselves this season. Haringey Borough invested £1 million in improving their facilities a couple of years back, including installing a state-of-the-art 3G pitch, and they haven't looked back.

Their FA Cup journey began in the preliminary round all the way back in August. English football was still glowing from a spirited performance at the 2018 World Cup as Haringey Borough started their quest to reach Wembley. Victories over Stanway Rovers, Brentwood Town, Erith Town, AFC Sudbury, and Poole Town have led them to this point. They are not without their experienced players. Georgios Aresti has played international football for Cyprus and faced off against Luka Modric in 2014. Michael O'Donoghue has played League 1 football for Colchester.

AFC Wimbledon won't want to become the latest victims of an FA Cup romance. The Dons are on a torrid run of form in the league. Neal Ardley's men are 23rd in League 1 and haven't tasted victory since 29th September when they beat Oxford 2-1. They have suffered 7 losses in a row since that game. Two away wins this season against Fleetwood Town and Gillingham will give them hope here but this could be a rough ride.

I can't cover an FA Cup 1st Round game without taking a massive punt on an underdog. Haringey Borough are 18th in the Isthmian Premier Division but they have a few games in hand on the teams around them. They'll relish this game against a morally fragile Dons side. At the odds on offer they have to be backed for the shock here. At the very least, they won't get turned over. Get on it!

Haringey Borough to Win @ 9.5 with Ladbrokes

BTTS @ 2.00 with Bet365

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As I often write I love punting on the FA Cup as you usually get some great betting opportunities and I never really understand why people want to leave it alone. I think in some ways it can be easier to make money from it than the league action. I am going to tip up a couple of upsets, but nothing at really huge odds has really grabbed me this year. I’m sure a big price will land, but there didn’t seem an obvious candidate for me this time around.

 

Maidenhead v Portsmouth

This game is the live Saturday lunchtime match on BT Sport and it is easy to see why they choose it, but I would be really shocked if we see an upset here. Maidenhead are in desperate form at the moment having lost 6 on the bounce in the league and they needed a replay to see off National League South side Chippenham to reach the 1st Round. Now defeats to the likes of Salford and Leyton Orient I can understand, but they have lost to Havant and Dover in their last two matches. Granted they had their keeper sent off in the Havant game whilst it was still 1-0 and they had to play with an outfield play in goals for over 50 minutes, but to lose 7-0 still isn’t great. In those 6 games they have conceded 23 times and scored just once and I think they are just about the worst side in the National League at the moment. Portsmouth on the other-hand are the best team they could possibly be facing as they sit 3 points clear at the top of League 1 at the moment. The have lost just one league game all season and they should be able to see off the home side with little fuss. Obviously they are priced up accordingly but the 10/11 for them to cover the -1 handicap makes a lot of appeal.

 

Aldershot v Bradford

Another game where a National League side takes on a League 1 side, but Bradford are at the opposite end of the table. They have lost 13 of their 17 games in League 1 and have just 10 points. If we narrow it down to their last 10 games they have picked up just 4 points, scored only 6 goals and have lost 6 games on the bounce. They won’t be looking forward to going to an Aldershot side that are very strong at home. They don’t look the same side who has reached the play-offs in the last couple of seasons, but their home form has been very strong with them winning 6 of their 10 games at home and losing just 2 of them. One of those defeats was to Maidstone and it’s fair to say Aldershot completely dominated the game and should have won. This tie is just the sort of match that I look for as a possible upset as Bradford will be very low on confidence and Aldershot have northing to lose. Betfair are best about a home win at 11/5.

 

Chesterfield v Billericay

The backing Chesterfield to draw theory proved profitable again last week, although Harrogate left it very late to equalize. For new readers Chesterfield have now drawn 8 of their last 10 league games. They might be playing a team from the league below this week, but obviously Billericay are no ordinary Step 2 team. I think they are more than capable of holding their own and they can easily get a replay. The draw is priced up at 12/5 with Bet365.

 

Maidstone v Macclesfield

I rarely bet in the Football League, but my first ante-post bet of the year was backing Macclesfield to go straight back down. Fair play to them on wining the National League title last season, but they weren’t the best team in the league (something Tranmere are showing this season). They have very little money and with John Askey moving on it was always going to be a tough task. So far so good with that bet as they have only picked up 7 points, winning just the once. Now Maidstone are hardly the best side in the National League and they have only won once at home in the league, but I think this is just the sort of game that will see the home side perform at their best which will make them very dangerous against a team who are basically a National League side anyway. Bet365 and Betfair go 11/5 about a home win and that makes plenty of appeal.

 

Barnet v Bristol Rovers

In the 2013/14 Conference Premier season these two teams finished first and second, which is probably why the BBC have moved it to a Sunday lunchtime. A bit like how Macclesfield weren’t the best team last season I thought Bristol Rovers were the best team that season (this coming from someone who backed Barnet for the title ante-post) and they have done well since finding themselves in League 1. Barnet are already back in Non-League football and they have had no luck with injuries this season. I think John Still has a strong squad and could still make the play-offs, but performances have been a bit in and out and they weren’t great in a 2-0 defeat by Maidstone last week. Rovers’ away form has been pretty solid as they may have lost 4 of their 9 away league games, but they were all by a single goal. They have drawn 3 and won twice. This is obviously a much easier task than they usually have and they should be odds on to win this in my view so 21/20 (William Hill and Skybet) looks a good bet to me.

 

FA Cup Acca

There are 5 teams who I think look bankers this weekend and the acca pays just over 5/1 with Skybet. I have already mentioned Portsmouth so they certainly go in. On the Friday night the BBC have decided to show Haringey v AFC Wimbledon which was an easy choice and people may think because the Dons are struggling in League 1 that their might be an upset. I can’t see it though as Haringey are a below average Step 3 side and the gulf in class is huge. It is also worth noting that Haringey had a pretty kind draw to make it to the 1st Round. Another Step 3 side Met Police are at home to League 2 Newport and again it is hard to see how Newport don’t have a fairly comfortable afternoon. Tranmere host National League South side Oxford City and they should be too strong for them. Finally on the Sunday Hitchin, who are another struggling Step 3 side, host National League side Solihull Moors. Moors are having a superb season and can add to that by making it to the 2nd Round.

Portsmouth -1 3pts @ 10/11 with Skybet and Betfred

Aldershot 1pt @ 11/5 with Betfair

Chesterfield v Billericay 1pt draw @ 12/5 with Bet365

Maidstone 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfair

Bristol Rovers 2.5pts @ 21/20 with William Hill and Skybet

AFC Wimbledon/Portsmouth/Newport/Tranmere/Solihull 1pt acca @ 5/1 with Skybet

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I'm an avid Pompey fan and must say that if they play anything like they played against us last Saturday they will be good things against Aldershot. Yes we won 1x0, but having been to all of Pompey's matches this season, both home and away, they were one of our hardest opponents to date, They missed a couple of sitters and had us under pressure for long spells. To me Bradford are the bet of the weekend.

Also on our game against Maidenhead, I'll be very surprised if we don't win by at least 3, so going Pompey -2 for the double.

Edited by eddiem

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5 hours ago, eddiem said:

I'm an avid Pompey fan and must say that if they play anything like they played against us last Saturday they will be good things against Aldershot. Yes we won 1x0, but having been to all of Pompey's matches this season, both home and away, they were one of our hardest opponents to date, They missed a couple of sitters and had us under pressure for long spells. To me Bradford are the bet of the weekend.

Also on our game against Maidenhead, I'll be very surprised if we don't win by at least 3, so going Pompey -2 for the double.

Could be that they raised their game against you? Tomorrow’s game very different circumstances.

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I hate backing odds on but I am adding in us to win at Weston on Sunday lunch. Weston might have picked up a bit in the last couple of games but it is still a team top of the National, with a stingy defence who are capable of grinding out results, against a team rooted to the bottom of the league below. The manager isn't going to play much of a weakened team  (at best one or two rested but on the bench) and knows that this is a decent chance to get to round 2.

Wrexham at a generally available 1.57

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Luton Town v Wycombe

Luton Town: Marek Štěch (3/0 g), Eunan O'Kane (3/0 m)(both doubtful), Danny Hylton (9/5 f, suspended), Dan Potts (14/1 d), Luke Berry (0/0 m)

Wycombe: Adebayo Akinfenwa (16/4 f), Michael Harriman (11/0 d), Anthony Stewart (7/0 d), Nathan Tyson (0/0 f), Matt Bloomfield (12/1 m)(all doubtful)

 

Crewe Alexandra v Carlisle Utd

Crewe Alexandra: Paul Green (5/0 m)

Carlisle Utd: Hallam Hope (11/2 f, probably in), Ashley Nadesan (15/6 f, top scorer, unavailable), Kelvin Etuhu (16/0 m), Tom Parkes (14/1 d), Joe Fryer (5/0 first goalkeeper), Jason Kennedy (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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3 hours ago, bartonbank said:

I hate backing odds on but I am adding in us to win at Weston on Sunday lunch. Weston might have picked up a bit in the last couple of games but it is still a team top of the National, with a stingy defence who are capable of grinding out results, against a team rooted to the bottom of the league below. The manager isn't going to play much of a weakened team  (at best one or two rested but on the bench) and knows that this is a decent chance to get to round 2.

Wrexham at a generally available 1.57

I was desperate to oppose Weston but they’ve done me over twice recently and I didn’t want a 3rd but essentially I agree with everything you are saying. The cash will come in handy for you as well given the other teams you are in a title battle with.

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5 hours ago, Darran said:

I was desperate to oppose Weston but they’ve done me over twice recently and I didn’t want a 3rd but essentially I agree with everything you are saying. The cash will come in handy for you as well given the other teams you are in a title battle with.

Yes, save we have a fair sum from the sale of Ward by Liverpool, and we haven't really touched it yet.

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On 11/8/2018 at 9:11 AM, Darran said:

 

As I often write I love punting on the FA Cup as you usually get some great betting opportunities and I never really understand why people want to leave it alone. I think in some ways it can be easier to make money from it than the league action.

Yes, exactly. As someone who looks for value all the Cups offer lots of it.

My 10-year database shows a tendency toward draws, but a few places where wins happen with some frequency. My current short list for today:

Draws: Bromley, Grimsby, Wycombe, Slough

Wins: Northampton, Halifax

Could go either way, gonna see where the odds go: Southport

Sunday/Monday:

Draws: Chorley, Guiseley, Hitchin, Weston, Port Vale, H&R

Wins: Salford

Could go either way, gonna see where the odds go: Barnet

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2 hours ago, allthethings said:

Yes, exactly. As someone who looks for value all the Cups offer lots of it.

My 10-year database shows a tendency toward draws, but a few places where wins happen with some frequency. My current short list for today:

Draws: Bromley, Grimsby, Wycombe, Slough, Stockport, Crawley

Wins: Northampton, Halifax, Southport

 

Sunday/Monday:

Draws: Chorley, Guiseley, Hitchin, Weston, Port Vale, H&R

Wins: Salford

Could go either way, gonna see where the odds go: Barnet

Added picks in bold

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2 hours ago, allthethings said:

Yes, exactly. As someone who looks for value all the Cups offer lots of it.

My 10-year database shows a tendency toward draws, but a few places where wins happen with some frequency. My current short list for today:

Draws: Bromley, Grimsby, Wycombe, Slough, Stockport, Crawley

Wins: Northampton, Halifax, Southport

 

3-6, +2.9 units

Slough and Crawley with the draw, Southport with the win. Halifax had a goal on the scoreboard at about 92', but it was corrected and the match finished 0-0...offside, I presume.

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1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

Tranmere manage to concede 3 at home to bloody Oxford.

F

 

1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

Tranmere manage to concede 3 at home to bloody Oxford.

Yeah I am very surprised by that although but there we go. Aldershot sadly couldn’t hold on but the other 3 bets were winners and my one non league bet won at a huge price as well.

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As a Stockport fan since 1975 yesterday wss a fantastic day,unfortunately had to settle for Radio Commentary but what a result against a team two leagues above us.

I for one will be looking forward to tomorrows draw,going off todays fixtures for Conference north sides, Chorley seem to have gone off the boil a bit after a great start to the season but are a tough side to beat i think Doncaster will win by the odd goal.

Alfreton brought a lot of players in the summer under new manager Billy Heath and are a team that like to play route one, they lost their main assett Tom Denton to Chesterfield and have brought in Reece Styche from Darlington who i think may be cup tied, think this will be a comfortable win for Fleetwood.

Guiseley have taken time to adjust following Relegation to National league north and are part time now after being full time last year, they have ex Barnsley player Kayode Obejayi upfront for them.he is mid 30s now hes a lovely guy who we had at Stockport a couple of years back, big and Strong in the air but doesnt score many goals, Guiseley are hard to beat but i can only see a Cambridge win here, going to have a 5pts treble on this which pays over 7/2 on Bet 365

 

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Hampton and Richmond vs Oldham

OK, so it's been a mixed bag this week with some stunning picks from you lot and some picks where the betting Gods weren't quite playing fair but we've still got one more game to go! It's National League South team Hampton and Richmond welcoming League Two outfit Oldham to the Beveree Stadium for this 7:45pm kick-off.

It's been a relatively quiet FA Cup 1st Round in terms of giant-killings. We've seen the odd scalp but far from the mass haul of upsets we often see every year. Can Hampton and Richmond write their name into FA Cup immortality tonight? Gary McCann's men haven't conceded a goal in their previous two qualification games in this competition after wins against Burgess Hill and AFC Hornchurch. It's not quite the same story in the league with the Beavers conceding 21 goals in 15 league games. They might be in 16th place but they are 10 points clear of relegation and only 5 points off the play-off positions.

No doubt, Oldham will not be looking forward to a game they will be expected to win but could come out on the wrong side of an FA Cup romance story. Frankie Bunn's team are mid-table mediocrity in 15th place in League Two. It's been a far from thrilling season but the threat of relegation is 10 points away and the play-offs are just 7 points away. However, a shock loss here could have detrimental consequences on their morale and league form.

Hampton and Richmond hardly have an intimidating record at home. They have lost 57% of their home matches this season already. They have also conceded two or more goals in their last three competitive games. Throw in the fact that Oldham have kept a clean sheet in over two thirds of their away games and it starts to feel like we might not see an upset here.

Still, I'm always keen to have a punt on the underdog. It's a weakness of mine when it comes to this competition. However, on this occasion, I just don't think the odds are appealing enough. Oldham are a fair price to win outright considering their league status so I'm going to be a bit boring and back them to get the win here.

Oldham to Win @ 1.67 with Boylesports

BTTS @ 1.80 with Bet365

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9 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

It's been a relatively quiet FA Cup 1st Round in terms of giant-killings. We've seen the odd scalp but far from the mass haul of upsets we often see every year.

Got to disagree with you on this. 44 percent draws in the first round by big dogs is massive. The overall percentage of lesser sides getting something from matches was in line with historical norms, though typically a couple of those draws would have been outright wins.

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    Casino

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • 1.15 Chelt - Normal Norman 50/1 Betfair 0.5ew 
    • Sunderland vs Wycombe The first game up for the previews in this reduced schedule weekend is League One's 2nd placed team Sunderland playing mid-table side Wycombe in a 3pm kick-off this Saturday at the Stadium of Light. I'm picking this match because it's a classic case where the home side should seal a business-like win. Sunderland are experiencing somewhat of a return to stability under the stewardship of Jack Ross. The former St Mirren manager has overseen a huge number of changes at the club over the summer. 23 players departed the club and Ross essentially built the playing squad from scratch. It was a risk but it's paid off. The Black Cats are 2nd in the table with 35 points from 16 league games and just one defeat all season. Wycombe are not doing too badly so far. A number of pundits tipped them to struggle this season but Gareth Ainsworth, also known as "Wild Thing", continues to defy the odds at the club he's been with for six years now. The Chairboys are in 15th place with 21 points from 17 league games meaning they are 6 points clear of the relegation zone. This game sticks out for me for the simple reason that Sunderland are undefeated at home and Wycombe have really struggled on their travels with just one victory in their 8 away matches so far. I've no doubt that Ainsworth will have his players fighting until the end but the home team should have too much for the visitors. Wycombe have won 4 of their last 6 games and have only lost by more than 1 goal on the road once this season but I think this game will be a tough one for them. Sunderland -1 @ 2.88 with SpreadEx Sunderland HT/FT @ 2.70 with Ladbrokes @Papa Lazarou, @freestylerx, @allyhibs, @iBetting, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @kulikTS, @golakeh1, @Unnamed, @willie82, @dogmeister, @TheEdge, @JJG, @allthethings, @Mindfulness, @the bastardian, @teddybear3011, @Marek76, @salmonman, @Unnamed, @mij0sim, @jazzman02, @Bobby Vegas, @Teodore, @Tiffy, @nenri981, @MangoTheThird, and @sajtion, are you guys going to put any bets down this weekend?
    • 1.50 Cheltenham - Movie Legend @ 13/2 Bet365
    • Good luck today 12.20 Lingfield Interesting that the two best backed horses are both got the same trainer and owner! Quite like the best priced of the two: Diamond Lady Each Way @ 10-1  BOG Skybet
    • Cheltenham 2.25    Mr Whipped    3-1 William Hill
    • 27-37 +28.37 units Bastian Malla to beat Kuzmanov @ 2.83 pinnacle Hiroki Moriya to beat Uchiyama @ 2.44 pinnacle Hope to ride a good run, cash both of these. time for a huge comeback after the past couple days. I've seen Moriya's last match vs Oliveira. His technique was incredible at the net. I hope that his legs are ready, Because, if they are.. It's going to be a long day for for Uchiyama. I am a big fan of Moriya's ball striking. 
    • Friday 16/11/2018 NO SELECTIONS
    • #33. 2.00 Lingfield - Uncle Jerry @ 5/6 William Hill - Flat Kelly stake of 44.99pts (assessed chance of 75%) LTO winners for 16/11
      Uncle Jerry has won his last two races since the application of blinkers (worn again today). Penultimate race saw the 4th win next time out (as well as Uncle Jerry) . His last race was won comfortably by 4L's while going away. Pretty much has similar conditions as those wins today and could well be in front of the handicapper for a tilt at a potential third win. Grouping wise (spreadsheet), after applying the available price filter, reduces the group from 105 to 20 qualifiers with 15 of those winning next time (75%). DB list for group 7999 after filtering for SP.
    • 12.20 Lingfield  KATH'S LUSTRE 1pt win 10/1 PaddyPower BOG
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