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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Nov 10th & 11th

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It's the last weekend of Premier League action coming up this weekend before the international break. I'm really praying that Cardiff can get another win at home to put this past weekend's disappointing defeat to Leicester behind us. The Manchester derby is the pick of the games so let us know your pick of the bets. :ok

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Premier League predictions

Cardiff City - Brighton
2(3.03) 0-1FT Under(2.5) 1.56

Huddersfield Town - West Ham
2(2.25)1-2 FT

Leicester City - Burnley
1(1.48) 3-1 FT Over(2.5) 1.86 GG (2.00)

Newcastle Utd - Bournemouth
X(3.44) 2-2 FT

Southampton - Watford
1 (2.42) 1-0 FT

Crystal Palace - Tottenham
1(4.44) 2-1FT Over(2.5) 1.68 GG (1.60)

Liverpool - Fulham
1 (1.10) 3-0FT Over(2.5) 1.24

Chelsea - Everton
1 (1.40) 3-2FT Over(2.5) 1.50 GG (1.70)

29
Arsenal - Wolves
1(1.55) 1-0 FT 

Manchester City - Manchester Utd
1(1.35) 2-1 FT
Over(2.5) 1.50

Edited by Gedkip
Missing

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Cardiff vs Brighton

I must apologise after last weekend. I went down with a nasty chest infection which I still can't bloody shift but I'm on the mend. That meant I couldn't deliver the third Premier League preview. Cue the sighs of disappointment. Anyway, the good news is that as a result of that you benefit from four preview instead of the usual three this weekend! Cue cheers of joy!

The first match we begin with is my beloved Cardiff welcoming Brighton the the Cardiff City Stadium for a 12:30pm kick-off. The Bluebirds will face a tough challenge here against a streetwise Seagulls side but will be keen to get back to winning ways after back-to-back defeats to Liverpool and Leicester.

Last weekend was a strange one. It was such an emotional game. Neither Leicester nor Cardiff played very well at all. Clearly events surrounding the game had an impact on everyone. It was right for the game to be played but it's clear neither side was at 100% mentally.

Cardiff will want to win here. They need to make Cardiff City Stadium a fortress against the mid-table sides if they are to stay up. The disappointing thing about last week is that Leicester were there for the taking. I think if we'd have scored first they wouldn't have come back into it. As soon as they scored that opening goal we never looked like getting back in it.

We are currently sat in 19th place but a win could potentially lift us to 16th place. Our scoring problems continue to rage on. The fact Gary Madine came on against Leicester and Callum Paterson (signed as a right back and primarily used as a central midfielder) has been our most effective striker sums it all up. Bobby Reid has shown sparks but Kenneth Zohore lacks the attitude and Danny Ward is hit and miss. I want us to play on the front foot on Saturday like we did against Fulham. Then we might stand a chance.

Brighton continue to suffer an awful away record. Their 1-0 away victory against Newcastle on 20th October was their first away win since 4th November, 2017 when they beat Swansea 1-0 at the Liberty Stadium. If they are hoping to win here it will mean breaking a duck of three visits to Cardiff without a victory. The last win coming in a 2-0 win back on 19th February, 2013.

I'm not sure why but I'm quietly optimistic about this game. There's no denying that we were poor against Leicester and Neil Warnock never tolerates two abject performances in a row. I expect us to be fully fired up for this clash. The odds on us winning are really tempting so I'm taking the rare step of backing it. Come on you Bluebirds! Sorry, @Tiffy!

Cardiff to Win @ 2.62 with Betfair

BTTS @ 2.10 with Boylesports

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett@KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, and @AndreBR, what do you guys think of my above preview? Any thoughts on the betting this week?

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2 hours ago, sajtion said:

cardiff needs to change manager otherwise you they are going straight back down to championship

Nah, not a chance. Warnock has the entire backing of the fan base. The problem is player quality and depth. Our supporters are happy to accept that for the time being we are dealing with a tightly run ship after decades of diabolical financial management. Vincent Tan took some hard, and deserved, criticism during his early years with the re-brand etc. However, since the switch back to blue he's really got the club in order.

The general feeling is that this season is a freebie. We got promoted 2-3 seasons earlier than expected so we're here to enjoy the ride. If we stay up then great but if we go back down then, in Warnock, we have a manager that can get us back up and then he's openly admitted he'll hand over to another manager.

Simply switching managers doesn't always help. We are still actually performing better in games than our results suggest. We are a clinical striker away from being a mid-table team. The likes of Sean Dyche and Rafa Benitez have already said they don't think we'll go down because the manager clearly has the support of the dressing room.

We know people will continue to write us off and we're happy with that. This group of players thrive when written off. We've got nothing to lose. We'd rather give it a proper crack with Warnock than sack him off in favour of gambling on another manager for the sake of it.

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Cardiff City V Brighton & Hove Albion

X @ 3.16 Marathonbet

As @StevieDay1983 has already mentioned, Cardiff lack a ruthless goalscorer. The spirit level is good with the Bluebirds at present and this is reflected in the ELO ratings. Despite this, I prefer to go with X here rather than home team DNB or AH 0 line. Brighton are notoriously poor on the road in the EPL but their defence is worthy of respect and I doubt the Seaweeds will be too phased when facing this Cardiff attack. Brighton are also in good spirits at present and the two sides may well cancel each other out here.

On a side note, completely agree with @StevieDay1983 regarding Neil Warnock. He is one of the best managers in English league football and fully deserves another shot at keeping an underdog team in the EPL. Cardiff's biggest asset is their manager.

 

Southampton V Watford

X @ 3.40 Unibet

ELO ratings are very close here, some folks will side with the away team on the +0.25 AH line and that's fair enough. I prefer X as I think this could be another game where neither team is strong enough to win it. Watford will miss Etienne Capoue for this match, his grit and industry is quite important for Javi Gracia's side, particularly within the current system they deploy. Nathaniel Chalobah is a quality replacement but he isn't quite as strong with the defensive side of the game. Watford have clearly outperformed Southampton so far this campaign but this is the type of match which could be a little awkward for Doucoure & co.

Low defensive blocks and plenty of shooting from downtown will probably be on the menu here, Southampton vice-chairman Les Reed has made a bee line for the exits, Mark Hughes will try and avoid getting stung by the hornets... If this game ends in stalemate we will be buzzing.

 

 

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Good evening everyone, I am still writing this but have decided to let my missus have a go with the predictions as she has been asking me what I am doing when I am on the excellent Punters Lounge Forum, sigh I know, but let her have a shot :)

 

Cardiff 0 Brighton 1. Sorry @StevieDay1983 the missus doesn't give you the win here, and I have to agree Brighton are settled and they will see this as one they should win, however I think Cardiff will also be thinking the same, that said an away win for me. UNDER 1.5 GOALS 7/4 MARATHON BET & betfair

 

Huddersfield 0 West Ham 2. Not a bad shout this, though with Huddersfield finally off the mark they will definitely fancy this and will hope the inconsistent West Ham turn up, This match caused a long pause for thought before coming up with 0-2 and I have to say so Far I do not disagree. WEST HAM HALF TIME/FULL TIME 3/1 BETVICTOR

 

Leicester 2 Burnley 0. Now here is where me and the missus differ but end up with the same prediction, she predicts 2-0 because of the tragedy that befell Leicester FC & The City, I think they will still win but will be a little tough with all the emotion and travelling sure to play a part. UNDER 2.5 GOALS 101/100 MARATHON BET

 

Newcastle 0 Bournemouth 0. EEEEErrrrrrr no goals in this game is a bold shout, but it could be a profitable one, although Bournemouth will go for it, but will Newcastle sit back and hope to grab a breakaway goal as they did against Watford?? NO GOALSCORER (ALWAYS THE BEST WAY TO GO WHEN 0-0 IS PREDICTED IN CASE AN OWN GOAL WINS IT) 9/1 bet365 & BETFRED

 

Southampton 1 Watford 1.  With Southampton floundering and I know I mention on numerous occasions that it baffles me Mark Hughes is still in the top flight management, A draw may not be a bad shout, so i'll give her the benefit of the doubt. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 23/4 Sporting Bet

 

Crystal Palace 1 Spurs 3. Again not a bad shout I think she is doing ok this would not be far off my prediction to be honest, Spurs will have to much going forward for the eagles and they also seem to be enjoying themselves away from Wembley. OVER 3.5 GOALS 41/20 888sport & 39/19 UNIBET

 

Liverpool 2 Fulham 0. Seems reasonable??? Liverpool back from a disappointing performance in Europe however they will see this out comfortably and 2-0 is a little humble but we will see. DRAW HALFTIME/LIVERPOOL FULLTIME 4/1 BETVICTOR

 

Chelsea 2 Everton 0. Hard to argue with this choice too, I think you can't look past Chelsea being comfortable in this one, with probably a goal in each half being sufficient enough. Chelsea HALFTIME/FULLTIME 23/20 Ladbrokes, CORAL & BETSTARS

 

Arsenal 1 Wolves 0. -0 TO THE Arsenaaaal, remember those days well they are back ha ha ha, Wolves have hit their first wobble and may go to the Emirates and try and hold back which is really against their usual style and Arsenal will nick it. ARSENAL 1-0, 89/10 MARATHON BET

 

AND SO ON TO THE MANCHESTER DERBY, SHE WILL PICK CITY JUST COS I AM UNITED :) 

 

Man City 2 United 1. Well I was a little shocked by this one as in I thought she'd go 3 or 4 nil, but she gives United a goal :)' United just don't have what it takes to deal with City, me personally I am fearful of another Hiding similar to the one at Old Trafford a few years back, however the missus goes 2-1 and I'll go with that. CITY HALFTIME/CITY FULLTIME 21/20 William Hill, Coral, BETFRED, BETSTARS & SPORTINGBET

 

There endeth the predictions, have fun everyone and don't be to hard on us I think there are some actually great shouts in there, I am off to have a party with my dad, which means two of my favourite things, BEER & FOOD :):) 

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warnock is championship manager but if cardiff want to stay up they need to act now and get someone else. cardiff are second from bottom. if you think warnock will keep you up then you should have beaten huddersfield, newcastle, burnley, leicester but you haven't and that's twelve points dropped. i can't see cardiff winning many matches with him in charge

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2 minutes ago, sajtion said:

warnock is championship manager but if cardiff want to stay up they need to act now and get someone else. cardiff are second from bottom. if you think warnock will keep you up then you should have beaten huddersfield, newcastle, burnley, leicester but you haven't and that's twelve points dropped. i can't see cardiff winning many matches with him in charge

Who do you suggest takes the job? which manager is a "premier league" manager that will keep them up, do you believe a change of manager will keep them up? 

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8 minutes ago, sajtion said:

warnock is championship manager but if cardiff want to stay up they need to act now and get someone else. cardiff are second from bottom. if you think warnock will keep you up then you should have beaten huddersfield, newcastle, burnley, leicester but you haven't and that's twelve points dropped. i can't see cardiff winning many matches with him in charge

Before our defeat to Leicester we were outside the bottom three having already played Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Tottenham. If we win on Saturday we could be 16th. That's some bizarre criticism of Warnock right there. Especially considering he's doing it on a budget far lower than any other team in the Premier League.

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Liverpool vs Fulham

One game that looks set to be a painful affair for one side is when Liverpool play Fulham in this midday kick-off on Sunday at Anfield. It consists of one of the most frightening attacking line-ups in the Premier League taking on the most fragile defence in the top flight. Brace yourselves, Cottagers!

Liverpool are currently in 3rd place in the table and 2 points off the lead pace of Manchester City. Jurgen Klopp's side have scored 21 goals and conceded just 5 in their 11 league games so far. The Reds will see this as a game they must win if they are to keep the title chase on the rails.

Fulham are experiencing a nightmare season so far. Having spent £100 million on new signings over the summer, Slavisa Jokanovic's men are propping up the Premier League table with just 5 points from their 11 league matches. The main problem has been a lack of defensive solidarity. The Cottagers have conceded 29 goals already. That's 4 more than the next worst record in the division which have been conceded by Burnley.

It's not looking good for Fulham based on the facts. Liverpool are currently enjoying an unbeaten run at home of 26 league games. That's their best run since 2009. Liverpool's record against newly promoted sides under Klopp has been perfect as well. They have won all 8 of those encounters scoring 25 goals and conceding only 3.

Fulham also don't have a great record against the reputed top six sides. In their last 18 Premier League matches against Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham, they have taken just 1 point. It also doesn't help that they're one of just three teams in the top five divisions in English football that have failed to keep a clean sheet this season. The other two are Sheffield Wednesday and Macclesfield.

I can only see a hiding for Fulham here. I've been disappointed with them so far this season. Their defence remains a problem they don't appear to be able to solve. Jokanovic's switching about every game suggests panic in his decision-making and it's not giving the back-line time to settle. I'm backing a huge Liverpool win here. Only a miracle will stop it.

Liverpool -2 @ 1.83 with Betfair

Liverpool to Win to Nil @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes

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1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:

By the way, where is @Tiffy??? Have hardly seen him on the EPL threads this season. I hope Tony Bloom hasn't hired him to handcraft clackers and laminate song sheets for match days.

2i1gu8l.gif

Christ, where do you get this stuff from @Mindfulness?  I think you lot are a lot  more obsessed with Brighton than they are of you

Obviously we don't need clackers now tha we have got Big Glenn up from banging the goals in ( There was such a backlash after the clackers were introduced, the club dare not do it again! They are the naffest  thing ever)

Magiko- sounds like the sort of foreign import Palace will blow £30 million on, in a vain attempt to stay up. :ok

Made me chuckle though,

I have moved to Devon now, and am going to watch Torquay V StAlbans on Tuesday, but I'll start the Magiko song off in the Popside & see what response it gets!  

In all seriousnes, I have been busy moving and selling my businesses. Consequently I have not been putting enough time or clear thinking into my decision making, and its cost me! So I have been off it for a few weeks, just having a break. 

I did back Torquay to win their league e/w at 34/1 just after GJ took over. They are 9/1 now! 

Illl stick a post up on this weeks Brighton game, 

Nice that your thinking of me anyway.

Mmmmm, Magiko, Magiko, we will follow you wherever you go, la la la de da, mmmmm, yes Its got a ring to it. 

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7 hours ago, Tiffy said:

Christ, where do you get this stuff from @Mindfulness?  I think you lot are a lot  more obsessed with Brighton than they are of you

Obviously we don't need clackers now tha we have got Big Glenn up from banging the goals in ( There was such a backlash after the clackers were introduced, the club dare not do it again! They are the naffest  thing ever)

Magiko- sounds like the sort of foreign import Palace will blow £30 million on, in a vain attempt to stay up. :ok

Made me chuckle though,

I have moved to Devon now, and am going to watch Torquay V StAlbans on Tuesday, but I'll start the Magiko song off in the Popside & see what response it gets!  

In all seriousnes, I have been busy moving and selling my businesses. Consequently I have not been putting enough time or clear thinking into my decision making, and its cost me! So I have been off it for a few weeks, just having a break. 

I did back Torquay to win their league e/w at 34/1 just after GJ took over. They are 9/1 now! 

Illl stick a post up on this weeks Brighton game, 

Nice that your thinking of me anyway.

Mmmmm, Magiko, Magiko, we will follow you wherever you go, la la la de da, mmmmm, yes Its got a ring to it. 

Yeah, one of my close mates is a Torquay fan and he was loving it when Johnson took over. They are into the play-off positions now and only 7 points off the leaders. I noticed they've signed a load of Bristol City players on loan. Was that through Johnson's connections or did they sign before he was appointed?

Anyway, enough blasphemous non-league chat in here! @Tiffy, what are your feelings on this weekend's game? We've generally had the better of you at home but you've always got a win in you as the past decade has shown so we are wary coming into this game.

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@Mindfulness great selections mate, I also went with X for both.

I fancy Burnley in the double chance but it's Leicester's first game at home since their chairman passed no? Too many uncertainties and lack of value for me.

Value bets:

Man Utd X2 or EH+1 @ 2.90

Spurs BTTS and win @ 3.20

Bournemouth win @ 2.60  those feeling risky can go for BTTS and win as Bournemouth are allergic to clean sheets

West Ham win @ 2.20

I play superbru (prediction game) so for something different this week I'll list my correct scores instead of bets...

Cardiff City v Brighton CAR 0 - 0 BRI
Huddersfield v West Ham HUD 0 - 2 WHM
Leicester City v Burnley LEI 2 - 1 BUR
Newcastle v Bournemouth NEW 1 - 3 BOU
Southampton v Watford SOU 1 - 1 WAT
Crystal Palace v Tottenham CRY 1 - 2 TOT
Liverpool v Fulham LIV 3 - 0 FUL
Chelsea v Everton CHE 3 - 0 EVE
Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers ARS 2 - 0 WOL
Man. City v Man. United MCI 2 - 2 MUN

@Roy The Boy maybe I'll get my missus to throw some predictions down next week... :cigar

Edited by KikoCy
Value bets added

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9 hours ago, Tiffy said:


@Mindfulness

Magiko- sounds like the sort of foreign import Palace will blow £30 million on, in a vain attempt to stay up. :ok

 

The next striker we buy needs to have the ability to magic himself out of the treatment room :eyes

Selling Murray was probably the worst bit of business the club has done since being back in the EPL. We'd be flying if he was in the team now.

Anyway, glad you're alright. I have mixed feelings about Brighton scrapping the clackers, they provided such lol's. I guess some of you do have some honour left.

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On 06/11/2018 at 5:33 PM, Sir Puntalot said:

Leicester look incredibly short at 1.44 considering they've just flown all the way to Thailand and back, jetlag surely in play and Burnley must be good value on Double Chance. :unsure 

57 minutes ago, KikoCy said:

@Mindfulness

I fancy Burnley in the double chance but it's Leicester's first game at home since their chairman passed no? Too many uncertainties and lack of value for me.

@Roy The Boy

Can understand the temptation to back Burnley on a + here but I think this game should probably be left alone. As Kiko said; lots of uncertainty and frankly Burnley are in such a poor moment.

@Sir Puntalot

 @KikoCy

Edited by Mindfulness

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I'm surprised under 2.5 goals is the outsider of the under/over market in the Palace Spurs match.  Matches between these two over the past couple of years have been tight, in fact it has been a 1-0 to spurs scoreline in each of the last four league games.  Palace also won 1-0 in an FA cup game so the 1-0 streak in all competitions is currently at 5.

I see no reason not to think this will be another tight and low goal encounter.  Palace don't score many- I think its only 2 home goals all season, both penalties in the last match.  Spurs aren't as free scoring as they have been in recent seasons. 

The outright price on Tottenham does not appeal, though if it drifts to evens i'd be happy to take that price.  This will be spurs 8th away PL game already this season, and they've won 6 and only lost 1, so going to Selhurst Park shouldn't faze them.

I'd therefore strongly recommend under 2.5 goals at around 2.1, and maybe just for fun 1-0 spurs at around 9.0 to continue the trend.

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19 minutes ago, thfc said:

I'm surprised under 2.5 goals is the outsider of the under/over market in the Palace Spurs match.  Matches between these two over the past couple of years have been tight, in fact it has been a 1-0 to spurs scoreline in each of the last four league games.  Palace also won 1-0 in an FA cup game so the 1-0 streak in all competitions is currently at 5.

I see no reason not to think this will be another tight and low goal encounter.  Palace don't score many- I think its only 2 home goals all season, both penalties in the last match.  Spurs aren't as free scoring as they have been in recent seasons. 

The outright price on Tottenham does not appeal, though if it drifts to evens i'd be happy to take that price.  This will be spurs 8th away PL game already this season, and they've won 6 and only lost 1, so going to Selhurst Park shouldn't faze them.

I'd therefore strongly recommend under 2.5 goals at around 2.1, and maybe just for fun 1-0 spurs at around 9.0 to continue the trend.

This is a good spot, I actually think Palace V Spurs is a very difficult game to predict this weekend, mainly because I have no idea what sort of team Spurs will put out. If Wanyama and Dier return it will surely be a boost for the unders + Pochettino says he is considering resting Eriksen and Alli due to a rapid turnover of games.

I will follow you on Under 2.5 @ 2.18 Matchbook

I think you're right, price is just too generous.

People should probably avoid 1X2 and AH markets for this game, it's very dicey in my view.

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1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:

This is a good spot, I actually think Palace V Spurs is a very difficult game to predict this weekend, mainly because I have no idea what sort of team Spurs will put out. If Wanyama and Dier return it will surely be a boost for the unders + Pochettino says he is considering resting Eriksen and Alli due to a rapid turnover of games.

I will follow you on Under 2.5 @ 2.18 Matchbook

I think you're right, price is just too generous.

People should probably avoid 1X2 and AH markets for this game, it's very dicey in my view.

I saw that article but I'd be very surprised if Poch didn't play anyone who is fit, with the international break coming up.  Alli in particular presumably won't be involved for the England/USA game, so only one game over the next two weeks means he can play here if fit.  Wanyama hasn't played for a while and seems to be out of favour so won't be a miss. 

I would guess the midfield will be Winks, Sissoko/Dier, Lamela, Eriksen/Alli.  I think the midfield will play quite narrow to stifle Palace and Zaha in particular, and allow Trippier and Davies to go forward to assist the forward players.

Spurs are top of the 'away form table' while Palace are bottom of the 'home form table', so you could argue the Tottenham price is fair as it is.  I'm actually quite confident about the spurs win, just think the price should be a touch bigger, and prefer the price of under 2.5.

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@StevieDay1983

I think GJ signed them once he joined. I have known a Torquay fan for years, and he follows them through thin & thin (no thick to be had!). I have always kept an eye out for them, and have now ditched my season ticket at the Albion (although I am going to the Palarse game). I'll report back on the non league thread after Tuesdays game.

Anyway, on to matters concerning our teams. I can't see past a draw either to be honest. We haven't played well in our games against Wolves, West Ham or Newcastle, but have got 9 points!. I think that Brighton will be hard to beat, it should be a low scoring game, but I think the value may be with Cardiff on the corner handicap market. Brighton have been getting 1/2 corners a game, whilst the opposition are getting 9/10.

 

Cardiff most corners 1.72

cardiff AH -1 corners 2.2

Good luck, and may it be an entertaining game, with no clackers in sight!

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