Tennis Tips - November 12 - November 18

[thinkpink63]

16 hours ago, money44 said:

ATP finals

John Isner to beat Cilic @ 2.86 

 

I agree on Big John beating Cilic. Don't get such long odds.

He won last H2H this year in Miami in straight sets.Cilic could be distracted by the upcoming Davis Cup final and didn't impress me against Zverev.

Adding a double @ 3.05 Bet365

ATP Finals Bryan/Sock to beat Marach/Pavic @ 1.61

Challenger Buenos Aires Gianluigi Quinzi to beat Dimitar Kuzmanov @ 1.90

I give an edge to Bryan/Sock who won Wimbledon and US Open this season.

Quinzi is a clay specialist and won 2 challengers in spring, Rome and Mestre.

Actually he hasn't been brilliant in the second half of the season, and was surprised to see him playing here. Expected his season to be over. He went through a tough game against Bellucci, who has a career high of 21.

The one month break could have suited him and see him winning against Kuzmanov, who won lately a Future in Sardinia but never went past the second round in a Challenger this season.

 

Edited November 14, 2018 by thinkpink63

[Gabosbet]

On 13/11/2018 at 9:43 AM, CzechPunter said:

Yes, Federer was poor, that was quite obvious. Based on the first matches, Djokovic is a clear favourite.

Couldn't watch the match. But checking the resultd  Federer is playing with our minds. I guess it was a very well played match or thiem wasnt focused. 

[Grass Cash]

Jessica Pegula Is playing now in what would be her fifth tournament  in Houston. that’s a lot of tennis since September. I really feel deniz will win With high confidence

Jessica beat Jasmine Paolini in the first round who is a young talented clay-court player with some questionable results recently. so I don’t consider this an impressive win in the first round especially considering the score was relatively close

Edited November 14, 2018 by money44

[Grass Cash]

26-31 +32.70 units

Aleksandar Vukic to beat Yoshihito Nishioka @ 5.4 with pinnacle

Cem Ilkel to beat Brayden Schnur @ 2.62 with william Hill

I watched Cem's first match, and then won again today as underdog. He looked great in the first match even tho it went the distance.  He looks very comfortable in Mumbai right now, and fit from what I saw. These odds should probably be reversed, but I do not know much about Canadian player.

Edited November 14, 2018 by money44

[CzechPunter]

Schnur is quite good in my view, more talented than Ilkel, the odds look fair to me there.

@Gabosbet Federer wasn't that great against Thiem, Thiem was just really poor.

[Uriel18]

Marin Cilic vs John Isner

Both lost their previous matches. The h2h favors Cilic, though Isner won the most rcent math. I think this will be an interesting match and I expect Cilic to win cause Isner has problems receiving serve and Cilic is in better form. 

Cilic -2.50 @ 2.360 Pinnacle

[Grass Cash]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Schnur is quite good in my view, more talented than Ilkel, the odds look fair to me there.

@Gabosbet Federer wasn't that great against Thiem, Thiem was just really poor.

Thanks .. he may be more talented .. I am not sure .. But I was very impressed with the first match i saw of Ilkel in Bangalore. but he could have dropped down since then

[Grass Cash]

Houston courts are playing extremely fast .. faster than indoor courts.  Khazaniuk was destroyed. She's not an indoor or fast court player... and now watson is getting throttled by jani.. because these big plastic racquet hitters can't control the ball sliding on ice to them. Houston WTA .. I don't know if this is played at the same center as the men 

but always could be possible that side courts are playing faster than main arena , or something like that .. i only saw one match 

Edited November 14, 2018 by money44

[four-leaf]

57 minutes ago, money44 said:

Houston courts are playing extremely fast .. faster than indoor courts.  Khazaniuk was destroyed. She's not an indoor or fast court player... and now watson is getting throttled by jani.. because these big plastic racquet hitters can't control the ball sliding on ice to them. Houston WTA .. I don't know if this is played at the same center as the men 

but always could be possible that side courts are playing faster than main arena , or something like that .. i only saw one match 

You should lay a bit low with the betting on tennis now but it may good that you're noticing facts about the courts in Houston but don't think about betting every day if it's because you feel some urge to win quickly. Patience can be good to have, And yes Houstons challenger event is played on the same venue as WTA Houston so now you know.

[Grass Cash]

Ty @four-leaf .. I will be sure to consult you when i need a gambling therapy program. Yes the speed of the courts destroyed my action, but if you haven't noticed .. i have done quite well.  I would suggest not paying attention to the negatives so much.. Because I haven't heard a peep out of you in terms of motivation or encouragement for the some of the good results I'm bringing here.  People have a very negative mentality especially as they age, and remember when you talk with me .. I see through all nonsense immediately. 

And it will help if people provide court speed information pre-tournament as I tried to do in Bratislava . it can help us prepare our bets

Edited November 15, 2018 by money44

[Grass Cash]

27-34 +31.37 units 

remaining picks for grade are hiltzik, vukic,Ilkel, and zverev tour finals winner. 

All of them I am not confident with, but some miracle can always happen. I do think Ilkel has a legit chance, but Czech Punter has warned us about that one.. so not feeling great about it. Vukic I also think might be live against nishioka

[four-leaf]

@money44 Doesn't matter if you've done quite well when you could have done very well. You're eager to get bets right and you're risking too mutch like selecting 5 bets and getting 2 correct when you could have selected only two and been on a big plus instead of small plus. I mean you had two good bets in Mario Vilella and Bastian Malla, why not just be happy with that instead of posting Big John to beat Marin and Sascha to bet Nole. Don't ask for too mutch, it often doesn't pay off in the end. You do some good betting from time to time but please cut down on the risktaking because as of now I personally don't know which bets to pick when you're posting so many because it's like walking through a minefield. I rather don't walk at all in the end so I don't back any of your bets then because it's so hard to know when you're right.

Anyways, Kei Nishikori to beat (-1.5 sets) Dominic Thiem at 2.44 with Pinnacle

Kei didn't look good when he met Kevin Anderson but Dominic looked even worse against Roger. This is a match I think Kei has a good chance of taking in 2 sets and he should have the motivation to do so. Dominic is out of sorts and is done for the season already and the surface doesn't suit him while it suits Kei better so Kei in 2 for me.

Kevin Anderson/Roger Federer over 2.5 sets at 2.38 with Paddypower

Kevin only needs to win one set to knock Roger out of the tournament and I think he can do just that. I just don't think Roger has the ability to win in 2 right now even if he wins the first set which he at least needs to do here to make himself have a chance to reach the semi.

[Grass Cash]

That's a reasonable response. Your picks look ok to me.  I was leaning nishikori, and anderson. I won't bet those options, but i don't have opinion on them. 

On my picks: All i can say is follow your instincts if its something you agree with and is good value.  Alot of the time I don't know which picks are going to win, and i like to bet them in volume, because I have a strategy that includes multiple bets at high odds.  I am sorry if you lost on some of my picks tho. Khazaniuk burned me really bad, because that same day.. my best college basketball pick won @ odds 15.. This team from Indiana that i follow.  I won on that pick, but could have won a ton more. good luck on your bets tho @four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

Isner against Cilic was a good bet though value-wise.

[four-leaf]

I'm gonna be wrong about Kevin and Roger to night just like I was on Dominic and Kei. Roger probably wins in straight sets now and wins the group. Boring but likely.

[thinkpink63]

8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Isner against Cilic was a good bet though value-wise.

Absolutely. Let's not forget that Isner played having just known of the death of his lifetime best friend and 7 years coach. Tough mental situation to play

[thinkpink63]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

I'm gonna be wrong about Kevin and Roger to night just like I was on Dominic and Kei. Roger probably wins in straight sets now and wins the group. Boring but likely.

Strange game that can be just a luxury exhibition..Roger needs 5 games (6 if there's a tie-break) to reach the semis.

Kevin needs 7 games to be first in the group and avoid Djokovic in the semi.

Unless Roger thinks to be able to win in 2 easy sets and be first in the group, after having reached the respective goals it will be a flip coin.

Could be interesting for an in-play bet though

[CzechPunter]

Well, that I didn't know about, I was just going by how the dynamics of the match worked in the first set.

[CzechPunter]

Bastian Malla (+4.5) to beat Dimitar Kuzmanov at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Jumping on the Malla and @money44 bandwagon here. That guy really is on fire and I especially liked his mental resilience in the previous rounds, as he was able to come back in sets two against guys that are arguably better than Kuzmanov.

[Grass Cash]

I'm with you 100% on that .. I will probably post it later .. take care 

[Grass Cash]

27-37 +28.37 units

Bastian Malla to beat Kuzmanov @ 2.83 pinnacle

Hiroki Moriya to beat Uchiyama @ 2.44 pinnacle

Hope to ride a good run, cash both of these. time for a huge comeback after the past couple days. I've seen Moriya's last match vs Oliveira. His technique was incredible at the net. I hope that his legs are ready, Because, if they are.. It's going to be a long day for for Uchiyama. I am a big fan of Moriya's ball striking. 

Edited November 16, 2018 by money44
unit correction

[four-leaf]

Jumping on the Bastian Malla train myself

[four-leaf]

Ryan Shane to beat Blaz Rola at 2.75 with Pinnacle

Bastian Malla is a good run and Ryan is on a great run himself and he will break the top 500 easily after challenger Champaign and this match he's got some nice chance to win also. After upsets of Marcel Granollers and J.P Smith I think his game will be enough for a win again. If he plays at the same level as before and with the same confidence he will beat Blaz.

[four-leaf]

Fivefold at 17.98 with bet365

Bastian Malla to beat Dimitar Kuzmanov 2.75

Ryan Shane to beat Blaz Rola 2.62

Ivo Karlovic to beat Dominik Koepfer 1.44

Sock/Bryan to beat Mahut/Herbert at 1.53

Thai-Son Kwiatkowski to beat Roy Smith at 1.12

Bol to who ever decides to follow on this acca.

[four-leaf]

Guilherme Clezar to beat (-1.5 sets) Federico Coria at 2.63 with Paddypower

I think Guilherme has the better game of these two. They met once before in a challenger in Brazil 2016 and Guilherme retired after losing first set then. Could be two tight sets with Federico capable of stealing a set but I think Guilherme in two is worth the risk but it's defenitely a risky bet when I feel this could be a tight match. Guilherme is not that good that he is by far the better player here but I've seen him play and he's got some good groundstrokes and well capable of controling matches and win in two. Could even happen that Federico wins the match but Guilherme in two tight sets since he is the better player but not by mutch.

Pablo Andujar to beat (-1.5 sets) Pedja Krstin at 1.91 with Paddypower

Pablo is by far the better player of these two and I fully expect Pablo to roll over Pedja so not mutch to say here. Pablo in 2 easy sets and It would be the surprise of the day if Pedja steals a set here.

[thinkpink63]

Thoughts about Djokovic v Cilic tonight?

The game is an absolute dead rubber: Djokovic has already won the group and will meet Anderson tomorrow, while Cilic is out.

At stake there is only money and 200 ATP points.

Now..Djokovic will play the semi tomorrow against an opponent who had the advantage of a rest day while he will have to play in consecutive days.

As Nole pointed out in a press conference he still has some cold issues like in Paris, and, if Cilic cares a bit about this game, there's a chance that Nole could take a "day off" to spare energies. Could..

Cilic is @ 5.50 to win and @ 9.00 to win 2-0 on Bet365.

Maybe the pride of the Serbian player will show up tonight too, but for sure to win the ATP Finals is more important than to win this game.

Finally Cilic won 2-1 the Queen's final and lost in 3 both in Cincinnati and Paris against Nole.

Some low stake on the above mentioned bets could be worth a go.

Edited November 16, 2018 by thinkpink63

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, maybe at small stakes, but the quality gap really is big at the moment. I can see myself betting on Cilic in some form if he wins the first, otherwise no.

[opole]

Challenger Pune qualification

Abhinav Sanjeev Shanmugam vs. Rio Noguchi

I wrote some words about Shanmugam couple of days ago, he is quite talented and has a dangerous game with a huge serve and aggressie ground game. Like his style. Noguchi on the other side is quite the opposite, more a defensive counterpuncher with low power and weak serve, his weapon is consistency and angles. This could be enough but i trust Shanmugam as this is some kind of a home tournament in India and i expect a good performance.

Abhinav Sanjeev Shanmugam @ 2.90 Tipbet 3/10

[thinkpink63]

13 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, maybe at small stakes, but the quality gap really is big at the moment. I can see myself betting on Cilic in some form if he wins the first, otherwise no.

That was the key. Had Cilic won the first set,where he had a set-point in the tie-break, I doubt Nole was going to keep it to the third.

The second was all written to be quickly in favour of the first one's winner.

[opole]

Challenger Pune Qualification

N.Sriram Balaji vs. Benjamin Hassan 

Balaji is a very decent player and on my radar for a couple of years at those home tournaments in India. Had a couple of decent results there over the year. Last year he reached the second round in Pune. Today he beat Luke Saville in a tight three setter. Hassan is solid but i doubt he is the favorite here.

N.Sriram Balaji @ 2.75 William Hill 4/10