2018/19 Top 10 Tracks - Jumps Thread

[BillyHills]

12.15	Musselburgh	Tor	4.00
12.45	Musselburgh	The Steward (USA)	1.80
1.15	Musselburgh	Simone (IRE)	2.25
1.45	Musselburgh	Life Knowledge (IRE)	7.50
2.15	Musselburgh	Nendrum (IRE)	7.00
2.45	Musselburgh	Civil Unrest (IRE)	3.50
3.15	Musselburgh	Weapons Out	2.50

[BillyHills]

Results: -70pts
Totals: +35.47

So frustrating, too many seconds and a faller when clear didnt help either.

Anyway on we go:

3.55	Kempton	James Street (IRE)	3.25
4.30	Kempton	Al Messila	3.25
5.00	Kempton	Antonia Clara	8.00
5.30	Kempton	Ventura Blues (IRE)	6.50
6.00	Kempton	Danzan (IRE)	6.50
6.30	Kempton	Spark Plug (IRE)	7.50
7.00	Kempton	Spiritual Man (IRE) EW	9.00
7.30	Kempton	Kodiac Pearl (IRE) EW	13.00
5.15	Newcastle	Kilbaha Lady (IRE) EW	9.00
5.45	Newcastle	Almashriq	1.83
6.15	Newcastle	Mr Potter	4.50
6.45	Newcastle	False Id	4.50
7.15	Newcastle	Picketts Charge EW	9.00
7.45	Newcastle	Dandy Highwayman	4.50
8.15	Newcastle	Another Angel (IRE)	6.00

[BillyHills]

Results

KP: Won 7/2, Won 16/1 (nice drift)
NC: Won 5/6, Won 7/2, Won 7/2, Won 5/1

Stakes: 150pts
Returns: 383.30pts

Totals: 268.77pts

 

[BillyHills]

6.00	Chelmsford City	Deep Intrigue	2.10
6.30	Chelmsford City	Beepeecee EW	17.00
7.00	Chelmsford City	Restive Spirit	5.00
7.30	Chelmsford City	Salateen	3.50
8.00	Chelmsford City	Carvelas (IRE) EW	15.00
8.30	Chelmsford City	Saaheq	2.63
9.00	Chelmsford City	Captain Ryan	7.00
12.25	Wincanton	Rhythm Is A Dancer	3.00
1.00	Wincanton	Ballybough Nora (IRE)	6.00
1.30	Wincanton	Cobolobo (FR)	3.75
2.05	Wincanton	Borak EW	21.00
2.35	Wincanton	Bermeo (IRE)	3.25
3.10	Wincanton	Boy In A Bentley (IRE)	2.75
3.40	Wincanton	Furia D'Oudaries	7.00

[BillyHills]

Results
CC: Won 9/4
WN: Won 6/1

Stakes: 140pts
Returns: 102.50pts

Totals: 231.27pts

[BillyHills]

5.15	Kempton	Zahirah	5.00
5.45	Kempton	Just Later EW	10.00
6.15	Kempton	Airwaves	4.50
6.45	Kempton	Peters Pudding (IRE)	6.00
7.15	Kempton	Panmolle	1.80
7.45	Kempton	Outrage	5.00
8.15	Kempton	Lightening Dance	4.50
8.45	Kempton	Tesorina (IRE) EW	12.00
12.50	Sandown	Clondaw Westie (IRE)	5.00
1.20	Sandown	Deniliquin	2.50
1.55	Sandown	Lithic (IRE) EW	9.00
2.25	Sandown	Down The Highway (IRE)	3.50
3.00	Sandown	Pete The Feat (IRE)	8.00
3.30	Sandown	My Brother	4.00

[BillyHills]

Just putting Saturdays up early

 

12.15	Sandown	Zanza (IRE)	5.00
12.50	Sandown	Papagana	5.00
1.20	Sandown	Another Emotion (FR)	5.50
1.50	Sandown	Lalor (GER)	1.83
2.25	Sandown	Apples Shakira (FR)	4.50
3.00	Sandown	Un De Sceaux (FR)	4.50
3.35	Sandown	Red Infantry (IRE)	3.75

[BillyHills]

Results
KM Won 7/2 
SP Won 11/2

Stakes 210pts
Returns 110pts

Totals: 131.27pts

[BillyHills]

12.15	Musselburgh	Nendrum (IRE)	2.75
12.45	Musselburgh	Thibault	2.50
1.15	Musselburgh	Wolfcatcher (IRE)	2.63
1.45	Musselburgh	Ontopoftheworld (IRE)	2.25
2.15	Musselburgh	Liva (IRE)	1.67
2.45	Musselburgh	Traditional Dancer (IRE)	8.50
3.15	Musselburgh	Elmono (FR)	3.75

[BillyHills]

Just added November totals

Top 10 tracks going to be used for January

[BillyHills]

Results from Monday
NR, Won 13/8, Won 11/10

Stakes: 70pts
Returns: 58.25pts
Totals: 119.52pts

[BillyHills]

3.40	Kempton	Nefarious (IRE)	3.00
4.15	Kempton	Times Past (IRE)	6.00
4.45	Kempton	Alhaazm	3.50
5.15	Kempton	Fightwithme (IRE)	4.00
5.45	Kempton	Holy Heart (IRE)	3.00
6.15	Kempton	Smiley Bagel (IRE) EW	13.00
6.45	Kempton	Cliff Face (IRE) EW	9.00
7.15	Kempton	Zahirah	5.50

[BillyHills]

Results:

1 winner at 11/4 

loss of (42.50)
Totals: 77.02pts

 

 

[BillyHills]

Looks tricky on Thursday!!

Race Time	Track	Horse	Odds
5.15	Chelmsford City	Orchid Killer (IRE) EW	17.00
5.45	Chelmsford City	New Queen EW	11.00
6.15	Chelmsford City	Slipalongtrevaskis	6.00
6.45	Chelmsford City	Calling Out (FR) EW	9.00
7.15	Chelmsford City	Rosina	5.50
7.45	Chelmsford City	Le Precieux (FR)	4.00
8.15	Chelmsford City	River Cafe (IRE) EW	11.00
8.45	Chelmsford City	Sharp Operator EW	9.00
12.10	Newcastle	Pads (IRE) EW	9.00
12.40	Newcastle	Samtu (IRE)	8.50
1.15	Newcastle	Highland Hunter (IRE)	2.00
1.45	Newcastle	Hawk High (IRE)	4.00
2.20	Newcastle	Steel City	5.00
2.55	Newcastle	Overworkdunderpaid (IRE)	6.00
3.25	Newcastle	Bally Conor	2.75
12.35	Taunton	Southfield Stone	1.33
1.05	Taunton	Espalion (FR) EW	11.00
1.35	Taunton	Passing Dream	6.00
2.10	Taunton	Roll The Dough (IRE)	6.00
2.45	Taunton	Bang On (IRE)	7.50
3.15	Taunton	Capeland (FR)	4.00
3.50	Taunton	Beautiful People (FR)	4.00

[BillyHills]

Results

CC: Won 16/1 EW, Won 3/1 R4, 
NC: NR
TN: Won 1/3

Stakes: 220pts
Returns: 155.33pts
Totals: +32.35pts

[BillyHills]

5.15	Kempton	Chica De La Noche	7.00
5.45	Kempton	Guroor	6.00
6.15	Kempton	Merchant Of Venice	4.50
6.45	Kempton	Samphire Coast	8.00
7.15	Kempton	K Club (IRE) EW	21.00
7.45	Kempton	Pipes Of Peace (IRE)	3.50
8.15	Kempton	Espresso Freddo (IRE)	4.00
8.45	Kempton	American Endeavour EW	11.00

[BillyHills]

Update  Fri/Sat results tomorrow

12.20	Newcastle	Something Brewing (FR)	7.00
12.55	Newcastle	Castlelyons (IRE) EW	26.00
1.30	Newcastle	Jawshan (USA)	6.00
2.05	Newcastle	Visitant	6.00
2.40	Newcastle	Zealous (IRE) EW	9.00
3.15	Newcastle	Enchanting Man	2.75
3.50	Newcastle	Polybius	4.00
4.20	Newcastle	Another Angel (IRE)	4.33

[BillyHills]

Results
KP: Won 7/2
NC: Won 11/2, 3rd 8/1 EW

Stakes: 160pts
Returns: 123pts
Totals: (4.65)pts

[BillyHills]

12.20	Carlisle	Earlofthecotswolds	1.63
12.50	Carlisle	Trooblue	7.00
1.20	Carlisle	One For Rosie	1.80
1.55	Carlisle	Reverant Cust (IRE)	7.00
2.25	Carlisle	Kris Spin (IRE)	6.50
3.00	Carlisle	Nakadam (FR)	8.50
3.30	Carlisle	Rosie And Millie	2.63

[BillyHills]

Results

Won 8/13, Won 10/1

Stakes: 70pts
Returns: 126.30pts

Totals: +51.65pts

 

Rest of month:

18th Catterick
19th Newcastle
20th Chelmsford
21st Ascot
22nd Ascot, Newcastle
26th Wincanton, Kempton
27th Kempton
28th Catterick
30th Taunton

[BillyHills]

12.10	Catterick	Pc Dixon EW	9.00
12.4	Catterick	Fabianski (IRE)	1.63
1.10	Catterick	Manwell (IRE)	4.50
1.40	Catterick	Colby (IRE)	2.63
2.10	Catterick	Skye Chief	5.50
2.40	Catterick	Midnight Chill	2.10
3.10	Catterick	Winter Time EW	13.00

[BillyHills]

Update later

Newcastle
320 Archive EW 10/1
355 Xtara EW 8/1
430 Dutch Pursuit 11/4
505 Griggy 3/1
540 Marweb 5/1
615 Gun Case EW 9/1
645 Duke Cosimo 3/1
715 Dandy Highwayman 6/1


Update
Results:
Cat: Won 5/6, Won 11/10
New: Won 11/4, Won 5/1

Stakes: 150pts
Returns: 136.80pts
Totals: +38.45pts

[BillyHills]

Time	Track	Horse
530	Chelmsford City	Khazix (IRE)	5.50
600	Chelmsford City	Planissimo	2.88
630	Chelmsford City	Just Later	3.50
700	Chelmsford City	Mister Chiang	3.00
730	Chelmsford City	Elenora Delight EW	21.00
800	Chelmsford City	Landue	6.00
830	Chelmsford City	Busby (IRE) EW	9.00
900	Chelmsford City	Slipalongtrevaskis	6.00

[BillyHills]

Results
Won 4/1, 3rd 8/1 EW

Stakes: 80pts
Returns: 63pts
Totals: 21.45pts

 

Race Time	Track	Horse	Odds
12.45	Ascot	Igor	4.00
1.20	Ascot	Azzerti (FR)	3.25
1.55	Ascot	Thomas Darby (IRE)	3.75
2.30	Ascot	Count Meribel	4.50
3.05	Ascot	Kapgarry (FR) EW	11.00
3.40	Ascot	The Glancing Queen	4.50

[BillyHills]

Won 11/4, NR

Stakes 60pts
Returns: 47.50
Totals: +8.95pts

____________________

12.40	Ascot	Its Got Legs (IRE) EW	13.00
1.15	Ascot	Dolos (FR)	2.75
1.50	Ascot	De Dollar Man (IRE)	8.00
2.25	Ascot	Sam Spinner	8.00
3.00	Ascot	Benatar (IRE) EW	9.00
3.35	Ascot	Western Ryder (IRE) EW	11.00

 

1.40	Newcastle	Green Zone (IRE)	8.00
12.10	Newcastle	Skipthescales (IRE)	3.25
12.45	Newcastle	Im To Blame (IRE)	1.90
1.20	Newcastle	Newberry New (IRE)	7.50
1.55	Newcastle	Eternally Yours	2.38
1.30	Newcastle	The Dubai Way (IRE)	6.00
3.05	Newcastle	Alright Sunshine (IRE)	1.90

[BillyHills]

Results

AS: 3rd 10/1 EW
NC: Won 11/1, Won 9/4, Won 11/8

Stakes: 130pts
Returns: 191.25pts
Totals: + 70.20pts

Next: Wincanton & Kempton on Boxing Day

 

Have a good Christmas everyone

 

[BillyHills]

Thread going forward 2019

The main reason this thread started was to try and narrow down the vast amount of selections that the PL Tips publish every day. I started the tip back in August 2016 and after a years worth of data started to track the performances of each track, just to see if it was worth following anything significant.

With varying degrees of success I have now decided to take it to the next level in 2019 by trying to weed out some of the less profitable races that we have on each card. I think its important to stress I work on a ratings method, thats the only way I can trawl through the mass of races on a daily basis, the problems with this are obvious, certain races have many debutants which can not be rated, some races are just not suitable to the way i work such as Hunter Chases and Claiming races etc..

By doing the ratings for this long you get to know what is required to win a certain type of race. Lets say our 'top rated' horse in a Class 5 maiden has a figure of 75. Also in the line up is a debutant trained by John Gosden and another one trained by Willie Haggis. You just know the top rated one is not going to be good enough so your only hope is backing it each way - if the price is big enough. 
I've decided in such circumstances I just take a view and sometimes miss the race out all together, we may miss the odd winner but believe me they don't win very often.

So from Jan 1st 2019 i will try the new method

No Bumpers, No Hunter Chases, No Sellers or Claimers, Maidens/Novices reduced.
 

For anyone wanting to carry on following all of the selections they can always have a look at the Tips page as they will carry a full service as usual.

https://www.punterslounge.com/tips/free-horse-racing-tips

[BillyHills]

Boxing Day

12.50	Kempton	Thomas Darby (IRE)	3.75
1.20	Kempton	Warthog (FR) EW	10.00
1.55	Kempton	Santini	2.38
2.30	Kempton	Buveur Dair (FR)	1.40
3.05	Kempton	Native River (IRE)	7.00
3.40	Kempton	Montalbano EW	17.00
12.20	Wincanton	Southfield Torr	4.50
12.55	Wincanton	Posh Trish (IRE)	1.40
1.25	Wincanton	William Henry (IRE)	6.50
2.00	Wincanton	Captain Bucks (FR)	4.50
2.35	Wincanton	Ontopoftheworld EW	10.00
3.10	Wincanton	Kupatana (IRE)	1.83
3.45	Wincanton	Now Look At Me	3.50

[Snert]

On ‎24‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 5:15 PM, BillyHills said:

So from Jan 1st 2019 i will try the new method

No Bumpers, No Hunter Chases, No Sellers or Claimers, Maidens/Novices reduced.

Sounds an excellent idea - I don't follow the jumpers much but I think you should try something similar when the flat comes around again.

I've given up on poor quality races - any 0-55, 0-60 I don't even bother looking at the runners anymore. This cuts out a lot of races on the A/W, especially during the winter months, but my pocket feels the benefit.

[BillyHills]

40 minutes ago, Snert said:

 

I've given up on poor quality races - any 0-55, 0-60 I don't even bother looking at the runners anymore. This cuts out a lot of races on the A/W, especially during the winter months, but my pocket feels the benefit.

I used to avoid the AW like the plague but the truth is my figures at Kempton and Chelmsford are holding up so i'm loathed to drop them now. On the other hand Lingfield and Southwell are useless!!