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Boxing: October/November/December 2018


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Conrad Cummings @ 2.35 Pinnacle 4/10

Don't know if Rose deserves to be the favorite here. Cummings is younger, was more active recently and is fighting at home in Belfast, Northern Ireland, 40 miles away from his home town. Cummings only lost twice, vs. Keeler who is really good in my opinion and vs. Mittag who is solid european level. Rose on the other side was inactive for almost 1,5 years, he fought last in September vs. a guy with a losing record of 11-20-4 i've never heard of before and he won barely, 58-57 on the cards and it was probably even a gift, he looked horrible there. I doubt he deserves to be the favorite although he is the more experienced guy i do not think this is enough here.

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10 hours ago, opole said:

Conrad Cummings @ 2.35 Pinnacle 4/10

Don't know if Rose deserves to be the favorite here. Cummings is younger, was more active recently and is fighting at home in Belfast, Northern Ireland, 40 miles away from his home town. Cummings only lost twice, vs. Keeler who is really good in my opinion and vs. Mittag who is solid european level. Rose on the other side was inactive for almost 1,5 years, he fought last in September vs. a guy with a losing record of 11-20-4 i've never heard of before and he won barely, 58-57 on the cards and it was probably even a gift, he looked horrible there. I doubt he deserves to be the favorite although he is the more experienced guy i do not think this is enough here.

Brian Rose pulled out of the fight. So it's a void.

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Josh Kelly vs. David Avanesyan

Under 9.5 rounds @ 1.80 The Greek 7/10

Kelly is one of the biggest prospects at 147 lb, i think he might be a future superstar, of course it's a strong division but Kelly has everything in his game to be a world title winner one day. I think Avanesyan is a good step up here but i doubt the guy will do anything special here. Avanesyan coming back from a stoppage loss to Kavaliauskas earlier this year. Kavaliauskas stopped him in the sixth round and i don't know why Kelly should not repeat that?! I think Kelly with his working rate, power and variety should be too much to handle. I think we'll see a mid round stoppage between 5-7.

 

Edited by opole
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Thabiso Mchunu vs. Thomas Oosthuizen

Thomas Oosthuizen @ 1.83 Intertops 4/10

This is a rematch for the African Boxing Union Cruiserweight Title and South African Cruiserweight Title. The first fight ended in a Majority decision for Oosthuizen (115-113, 115-113, 114-114). The scorecards were pretty tight but in my opinion Oosthuizen was dominating the fight and won a close but clear decision. Considering the fact that Oosthuizen was out for 16 months with some really bad stuff happened before they fought on September 1st this year i expect a even better version of Oosthuizen for the fight today. Oosthuizen was dominating the first fight from the distance with his jab, he had a very solid game plan and Mchunu as always had huge problems with the southpaw stance. Mchunu having five losses on his record now and all losses were vs. southpaw opponents: Oosthuizen, Bejenaru, Usyk, Mwekassa and Makabu. This is a pattern. Sometimes orthodox fighters have huge problems vs. left handed opponents and i think this is the case with Mchunu who is definitely solid and a good boxer but for a reason he wasn't able to deal with good southpaw opponents. As i wrote Oosthuizen was a bit rusty in the first fight and still was able to dominate although the judges scored it close, i definitely can see wider cards today.

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Sunny Edwards vs. Junior Granados

Edwards is an interesting prospect at 115 pounds, he had a very good amateur career and won several national and international titles but we still have to wait what he is capable of doing at the pros. Despite being 9-0-0 (3 KOs) he only faced one serious opponent in Ryan Farrag who he beat comfortably but let's face the truth: Farrag is decent but he is decent at domestic level. Everytime Farrag stepped up to European or even World level he was hammered out of the ring (Burnett, Guerfi). Furthermore Farrag is featherfisted. There are a lot of hyped propsects in the UK and Edwards is looking good, i can't deny that, but he will face a hell of a fighter tomorrow and we'll find out soon if he is for real or still another prospect with a padded record who fails vs. experience and pressure. Junior Granados is experienced and a pressure fighter too. I only watched three or four fights of Granados and his record obviously isn't looking that good (16-5-1, 9 KOs) so this might be a bit misleading, a record is only one thing, it might tell us a lot but it can be a dangerous trap on the other side as we are thinking a fighter is poor or a classic journeyman although he is dangerous as hell. I think Granadosdeveloped very well recently. He went to war with Jamie Conlan who is pretty decent and Granados nearly stopped him with some really good body work and Conlan received a massive beating in the seventh round going down twice and beaten to hell there, Granados was fighting very smart and aggressive. The decision was a bit unfair in the end i think although Conlan came back strong in the late rounds i think Granados deserved a draw there at least but home cooked cards were giving a close decision to Conlan. Granados also had a very entertaining fight with Aston Palicte and Granados beat him via split decision. Palicte is a really good and strong super flyweight and recently beat Donnie Nietes fair and square although the (biased and corrupt) judges scored it a draw. Palicte is powerful, strong and still young at age 27, i think we'll hear a lot from him in the future and i think he might be a world title contender soon, i can imagine he'll get a shot vs. the winner of Ioka vs. Nietes in 2019. The thing is Edwards isn't that powerful and he will clearly try to outbox Granados but it will be interesting to see how he deals with Granados pressure and coming foward mexican style of boxing. I really think Granados is a living dog here and the odds are completly wrong.

Junior Granados @ 12.5 Sportbet 4/10

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Tureano Johnson @ 4.5 Pinnacle 4/10

Lemieux is a one dimensional slugger who can't box and move, he was humiliated by Saunders and exposed as he is all power and has not boxing brain at all. Johnson is a really good boxer and had some problems with injuries in the past but i read an interview where he said he is in the best shape of his career and i think he has a pretty good chance if he can survive and take the power of Lemieux who by the way is always a questionmark to make weight and not draining himself to hell.

Alvarez vs. Fielding Over 7.5 rounds @ 2.25 Intertops 4/10

Alvarez wins by UD @ 5.75 5dimes 2/10

I expect a tough fight for Canelo. He will outwork Fielding but Fielding is tough and looked really good in his last fight vs. Zeuge in Germany. Alvarez is a solid puncher but he hasn't the one punch knockout power to be honest and Fielding is taller and bigger, Canelo will translate to the new division and i think he'll need some rounds to figure it out.

Louis Greene @ 4.25 5dimes 3/10

Greene is better than most think. I watched some footage and he passes the eye test, no huge prospect but decent and his opponent is a joke. Ekundayo is thinking about himself like he is a superstar or somewhat, he has a padded record good lord, i do not even see one good win and he is 36 years old. Do me a favour but this is awful, the odds are suggesting this is a home cooked scorecard in the end but i hope for some fair judgement and then Greene should have a shot.

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17 hours ago, opole said:

Tureano Johnson @ 4.5 Pinnacle 4/10

Lemieux is a one dimensional slugger who can't box and move, he was humiliated by Saunders and exposed as he is all power and has not boxing brain at all. Johnson is a really good boxer and had some problems with injuries in the past but i read an interview where he said he is in the best shape of his career and i think he has a pretty good chance if he can survive and take the power of Lemieux who by the way is always a questionmark to make weight and not draining himself to hell.

I wrote it yesterday and today it's the case: Lemieux pulled out of the fight due being dehydrated and hospitalized because of that. WOW. This was actually a pretty fun fight and i think odds on Johnson were pretty good too.

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There is a huge market for ufc fights, and it is always getting more popular.. i hope that u will cap these matchups, or look into it.  There will be a smaller card to choose from, and we can narrow down on some sure bets with two votes. Its pretty exciting.. I respect boxing, but I don't bet on it. Hope to see you over there sometime. @opole

Edited by money44
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57 minutes ago, money44 said:

There is a huge market for ufc fights, and it is always getting more popular.. i hope that u will cap these matchups, or look into it.  There will be a smaller card to choose from, and we can narrow down on some sure bets with two votes. Its pretty exciting.. I respect boxing, but I don't bet on it. Hope to see you over there sometime. @opole

UFC isn't my area to be honest, i am watching the bigger events from time to time but only placed a few bets there over the last years.

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18 hours ago, opole said:

UFC isn't my area to be honest, i am watching the bigger events from time to time but only placed a few bets there over the last years.

Its not really my sport either either, but i'm studying it for awhile .first post here was a success. i had some questionable picks in the football forum .. its more difficult sport .. i like to only bet on one athlete for less variables.. 2-0 +3.75 units.. Also there is some other guy who posts there Danshot .. he's had some really good results... wouldn't take u long at all to catch on especially with your history scouting fights. There is a site i can link you also where a ton off mma bettors pick sides, and their career profit results are color coded.. It helps give a sense for who to back .. but it doesn't always help.. this card really was purely on evaluating the weigh in of the fighters... the strength and attitude. 

:cheers

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Whyte v Chisora II

If it's anything like the first fight, it will be another cracker with both fighters out on their feet last time.

It really is Chisora's last shot at the big time though, as where does he go from here if he loses? I see a very similar fight to last time despite all the hype around Chisora with Haye, I pretty much dismiss that as just that, hype.

Chisora has one hope, and that's to knock Whyte out as I just don't see how it wins it any other way. I don't see him doing that, so I'll go for Whyte to win on points.

Whyte to win by Decision @ 11/8 >Paddy Power 

 

 

 

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Matt Korobov @16.75 5dimes 2/10

Korobov is 35 yrs old now, probably past his prime and very inactive recently BUT he is a superb talented boxer who beat names like Usyk, Jacobs or Derevyanchenko at the amateurs, he won several national and international titles and was a decorated amateur. As a pro he only lost to once and it was a lucky punch loss. He beat Uzcategui for example who is a world title holder right now at SMW. I know it's very unlikely he still has it BUT Charlo is untested yet, only faced one decent opponent so far (Trout) and Trout beat Charlo IMO but was robbed on the cards. Huge odds but it's not impossible that Korobov will shock the world here.

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8 hours ago, money44 said:

Odds look really tasty on this one .. seems to be a chance 

Yeah wouldn't be surprised if Korobov is outboxing CHarlo for 5-6 rounds and then getting caught by a right hook again...BUT i expect him to be very fit and in good shape as he was supposed to fight on the same event vs. a different opponent. Maybe the weight loss could be a factor as he has to loose 3-4 kg within a week but still very tasty odds for such a matchup.

I don't know if i believe in the Charlo hype. I rewatched the Trout fight last night and i am pretty sure Trout beat Charlo on the cards, this was a first class robbery. Trout is a southpaw like Korobov is. Let's see....nice odds, let's shock the boxing world haha

btw: Good bets for UFC next week. I think i will tail the first the one on Douglas Silva.

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Cristofer Rosales wins by KO/TKO/DQ @2.35 5dimes 5/10

Rosales is a beast. I watched his last two fights and he developed so well since losing to Selby last year. Edwards has a padded record, he's a solid boxer but he hasn't the best punch resistance, Casimero who has a similar style compared to Rosales ko'd him and i think Rosales is more dangerous as he throws very very accurate and his body shots are crucial.

Dereck Chisora wins by KO/TKO/DQ @7 Ladbrokes 2/10

Chisora looks in great shape at the weigh in today, has almost the same weight as vs. Takam but his physique is much more impressive, that's the David Haye factor. Haye did the same with Joe Joyce who looked a bit flubby but turned into a strong and compact composition in short time period. Chisora is a beast and i think he won the first fight vs. Whyte on the cards, i had him winning the fight with 1 round. I think Whyte is always a matchup that brings out the best in Chisora. That was probably the best performance by Chisora ever and it was shame he was robbed in the end. Chisora knows he might get robbed again so i think he will try to be more aggressive especially in the later rounds as Whyte is always tiring late like he did vs. Parker where he was nearly stopped in the last round. I think this might be a tactic for Chisora who should be in awesome condition as Haye is probably the best coach you can have to be in shape and fit in the late rounds as he always was in his prime.

Liam Williams @2.65 5dimes 4/10

I don't know what to think about Heffron. He only fought bums so far and is hyped a lot, also has a good looks so he is easy to sell. We'll find out soon as Liam Williams is a hell of an opponent for a guy who almost has zero experience on that level. Williams is powerful and experienced and was never stopped in a legit way.

Senad Gashi @13.50 5dimes 3/10

Takam lost 3 of his last 5 fights and was brutally KOd by Chisora recently. He is old and you never how how he reacts to those kind of losses. On the other side Gashi is a damn tough mf to say it. He has an iron chin and always going forward to brawl, this could be a really good fight and if Gashi hurts him i think he will finish him off as he has a killer instinct.

Joshua Buatsi by KO/TKO/DQ x Nathan Gorman by KO/TKO/DQ x Carl Frampton = @2.55 William Hill 4/10

Solid parlay. Can't see Buatsi and Gorman going the distance. Frampton vs. Warrington might be closer on the cards than it really is but Frampton is just one level above i think. Frampton vs. Santa Cruz 3 in 2019 should be a lock.

 

 

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Definitely tailing you on Korobov .. I am watching some highlights of his matches, and the guy is an animal.. Really exciting fighter, and he looks determined, unafraid at the weigh ins.  I'll have to go to the Westgate Superbook, and place the bet, because I don't see it listed elsewhere on William Hill etc.. Thanks for the tip win or lose .. its going to be one heck of a time watching the fight .. Can't say I ever looked forward to a boxing match as much.. Also watched the weigh ins for the Gashi fight, and I'm less convinced of his chances... but sometimes I run into problems where one underdog wins and the other loses etc... Regardless, can't find a line on Gashi outside of 5dimes, and I can't place funds in there at this time. :cigar

@opole

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1 hour ago, money44 said:

Definitely tailing you on Korobov .. I am watching some highlights of his matches, and the guy is an animal.. Really exciting fighter, and he looks determined, unafraid at the weigh ins.  I'll have to go to the Westgate Superbook, and place the bet, because I don't see it listed elsewhere on William Hill etc.. Thanks for the tip win or lose .. its going to be one heck of a time watching the fight .. Can't say I ever looked forward to a boxing match as much.. Also watched the weigh ins for the Gashi fight, and I'm less convinced of his chances... but sometimes I run into problems where one underdog wins and the other loses etc... Regardless, can't find a line on Gashi outside of 5dimes, and I can't place funds in there at this time. :cigar

@opole

Bet365 are offering odds of 10 for Gashi

Edited by Simeon Borisof
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1 minute ago, Simeon Borisof said:

Bet365 are offering odds of 10 for Gashi

don have 365 access .. Also I am watching some footage and Jermall Charlo.. Super explosive guy.. I think the odds are somewhat fair on this one.. I am still probably going to take a chance on Korobov in the monring because he impresses me also.. I think that Charlo might get exposed on his defense from Korobovs south paw stance... Seems like there is some openings for loooping left haymakers.. But we will see.. Going to be fun either way, but I didn't realize quite how good Charlo is. 

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Leaning towards Chisora now guys, and backing off Korobov a little bit .. It was a nice dream, and I still hope he wins... but I think that Dereck Chisora win is far more likely at this point.. 

Sorry for the back and forth .. I'm new to the boxing game .. just really trying to analyze Opole's picks and find the best one .. so final decision for me will Chisora @ 2.4/1.. I won't do any official posts or records on this forum because I have very little knowledge of the sport or reliable information. Good day all :ok

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Gashi is underrated i think. He is a beast in the ring, completly without fear and going forward, but he is also a bit crazy as we saw in the inner german fight vs. Schwarz where he was disqualified. I think Gashi was definitely winning the fight vs Schwarz and although Schwarz is a bum i do not think Gashi is without chances here today especially as Takam had a very brutal KO loss recently and we all know how difficult it is to recover from that at age 38. Plus, a very important thing, Gashi has an iron chin i think. The guy can eat big hands left and right and isn't going down. I also like that Takam isn't that tall. Schwarz is 6'5 and the height was a factor there but Takam is 6'1 while Gashi is a small HW with 6'0. Another thing is Gashi had a very short fight three weeks ago that should give him some confidence. I like the odds, i mean odds around 13 suggesting less than 10%...this is unreal.

And yes...Korobov is an animal, really skilled, tough and of course has much more experience compared to Charlo who is untested yet as i wrote. Charlo looks good if it comes to the eye test but the eye test is only one thing. As we saw Trout was giving him much trouble and Trout is also a southpaw like Korobov, this is a dangerous matchup and of course it comes to the factor HOW much has Korobov left at age 35 with being quite inactive recently but i wouldn't be shocked if he shocks the world with a win vs. Charlo although it will be difficult as even if it goes to the cards i can see a robbery here. But as i wrote, odds are unreal high so it's worth a try even if it ends in a loss. 

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On 30.11.2018 г. at 3:33 PM, opole said:

Martin Joseph Ward wins by KO/TKO/DQ @ 7 Ladbrokes 2/10

Definitely worth a shot at these odds. Ward has some pop in his hands, he isn't the big puncher but he can bang and i think he will easily outbox Boschiero today who is simply too old and faded big in the last couple of years, it's a 12 rounder so Boschiero might be a bit tired in the later rounds and i can imagine Ward takes advantage of that and could probably stop Boschiero late. Another thing is, i can also imagine Ward going for the KO in the mid / late rounds as everyone knows the judges might be a bit biased here and giving Boschiero some close rounds so going for the knockout could be smart. I mean Boschiero hasn't big power so Ward do not have to fear getting lucky punched or something.

Nice prediction.

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