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Darran

Non-League Predictions > October 13th

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Good to have a really good Saturday last weekend with 3 of the 4 National League bets landing. Didn't have as much fortune on the FA Cup front but the next round should bring plenty of opportunities on that front next weekend. This Saturday it is Non-League Day and I urge anyone reading this who can go to a game at the weekend to go and do so especially if you haven't been to watch your local team before. I will be watching Billericay v Gloucester and as much as I fully expect my team to lose I am really interested to see Billericay in action especially from an ante-post perspective as I am sure a few of you have got some fancy prices about them. Hopefully it will be a profitable Non-League Day and I have five bets.

Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham (National League)

Surely Peter Taylor won't be in the Dagenham hot-seat for too much longer. They had a 4 game unbeaten spell, but apart from that have looked every bit relegation candidates and I don't see Taylor bringing about any improvement and he is the wrong man for the job. Wrexham on the other-hand have their eyes firmly on promotion although I suspect that will be via the play-offs rather than winning the title. Their only defeat in their last 8 games was when I put them up to beat Sutton, but that looks every bit the one off I thought it would be and Dagenham are no Sutton. Skybet are even money if you can get on although the shade of odds on elsewhere is acceptable as well.

Eastleigh v Aldershot (National League)

Slightly risky to want to back a team who have only picked up one point on their travels this season playing against a team who have won 4 on the bounce and are unbeaten in 6, but I think Aldershot are worth backing here. As I highlighted last week Aldershot are an improving side and they dispatched Halifax without too many worries last weekend. I am hoping that they can continue that on their travels and the fact they got a draw at Hartlepool two weeks ago gives me confidence that they can. Eastleigh lost their manager in the week and it might just upset their good run of form. This could be the perfect time to be playing them and the Aldershot players should be full of confidence at the moment. The 61/25 about an away with Marathon is way too big for me.

Halifax v Chesterfield (National League)

Yes I am going to oppose Chesterfield again in the live TV game on BT Sport at Saturday teatime. Yet again they are short price favourites away from home and although we didn't get a result in Chesterfield's last two games as they have drawn them they are a stupid price yet again. Now granted Halifax aren't exactly winning football matches either at the moment, but at home only Hartlepool have beaten them so far this term. Either side of that defeat they have drawn against Leyton Orient and AFC Fylde. It has been 8 games since a win, but they have drawn 5 of them. The two 3-0 defeats have both come on their travels and as pointed out above Aldershot are improving fast. Chesterfield have scored just 3 times in their last 10 games which is pretty shocking really and given Halifax have only scored 7 in that time we could be looking at a pretty dull affair (a bit like most of the games BT have chosen this season as they have made some shocking choices), but Halifax are good value 9/4 with Bet 365 to win the game. Some people might want the draw onside, but I think having a small bet on the no goalscorer at 15/2 (Bet 365) and on 1-1 at 11/2 (Betway and BetVictor) is the best way to cover the win bet and if Halifax win 1-0 via an own goal we have hit the jackpot!

Solihull v Ebbsfleet (National League)

Opposing Ebbsfleet got us a nice profit last weekend and although their away form is better than their home form I am more than happy to take them on again. They have only lost one on their travels, but that came in a heavy 4-1 defeat at Wrexham. Prior to that they had drawn at Dover which sums up their level at the moment. They did beat Dagenham in their last away game, but again that hardly says a lot and this match should be much tougher. Ebbsfleet were poor at home to Harrogate last Saturday and they again continue to look a fair way of the pace. Solihull weren't great themselves last weekend when losing 2-0 at Barnet, but their away performances haven't been as good as their home ones. So far in 7 home games they have conceded just 3 times and lost just the once to Hartlepool. I have put them up in both their last two home victories and I think they can land a 3rd home win on the bounce. 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred looks a big price to me as I would make it an odds on shot.

Chippenham v Dartford (National League South)

As I have mentioned before Dartford look a million miles away from the team who nearly won the league last season, yet they are still being priced up as if they are. They did manage a 1-1 draw against Billericay in their last league away game, but they have lost 3 of their other 5 without scoring a goal and were hammered 4-1 at Oxford City in the FA Cup last Saturday. Again Chippenham are a side who I have written about in recent weeks and although they cost me the FA Cup acca a couple of weeks ago they have been playing well otherwise. They beat Hendon in the FA Cup easily in the week and at home they have won 4 out of five in the league including beating Billericay. Chippenham should be favourites for this and it is crazy that they aren't. BetVictor's 9/5 is a very attractive price.

Wrexham 2.5pts @ Evs with Skybet

Aldershot 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon

Halifax 1pt at 9/4 with Bet365 No goalscorer 0.5pts @ 15/2 with Bet365 and 1-1 @ 11/2 with Betway and BetVictor

Solihull 3pts @ 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred

Chippenham 1pt @ 9/5 with BetVictor

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7 hours ago, Darran said:

Surprised to see them on the drift. Can only possibly think it’s people going for the new manager syndrome with Braintree, but I see that make little difference as they are just not good enough.

Do you think home win by at least two difference is highly possible?

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2 hours ago, mijOsim said:

Do you think home win by at least two difference is highly possible?

Certainly has a fair chance of happening if Salford continue in the form they have been in in the last few weeks.

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Fylde vs Maidstone United (1) -1 1.75 1u

Fylde are a decent team at home, having only lost once to league leaders Salford, while being the 2nd highest scorers at home. Maidstone were toothless against Bromley last game, with only a single shot on target. Fylde should win this as they have almost always were able to get points at home against lesser sides.

Solihull Moors vs Ebbsfleet (1) -0.25 1.97

Ebbsfleet will be missing reg mids Weston and Powell and they were already poor last game. Solihull Moors should win this.

 

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yes great tipping there darren ive followed this thread this season and its been great, i just wondered if you ever keep records of your profit/loss throughout? the none leagues are harder as there is not to much in terms of media coverage etc, you have to know the teams a little bit better in my opion. but great work

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On 10/14/2018 at 11:56 AM, big punt said:

yes great tipping there darren ive followed this thread this season and its been great, i just wondered if you ever keep records of your profit/loss throughout? the none leagues are harder as there is not to much in terms of media coverage etc, you have to know the teams a little bit better in my opion. but great work

Cheers everyone and a much better October than September so far thankfully.

A response to the above. I don't keep a record of the profit/loss. I personally think they can be a bit misleading as not everyone will have backed the tip at the price I have put them up at either because they don't have an account with the firm in question or because the price has gone. At the end of the day the stuff I put up is for free so my view is that people either follow or they don't. There are 8 years worth of posts on here if people want to see what I have done in the past. The fact that so many read a Non-League thread which mainly just has my tips on it (although others are more than welcome and are encouraged) says a lot and the fact that Paul wants me to put my tips exclusively on Punters Lounge also must mean something.

I agree that you do need to dig a bit deeper if you want to make money on Non-League football, but the bookies obviously spend very little time in pricing it up themselves so you will get many more errors than you do in the Premier League for example. When it comes to football Non-League is the only thing I bet on so my focus is only on that.

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