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laprikon

NHL 2018/2019 discussion

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Hi guys! NHL season 2018/2019 just start today. Any ideas for today matches? Probably today Annaheim Ducks not win. Feel free to discuss here.

Edited by laprikon
edited Laprikon

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Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning - over 6 goals, odds around 1.86 (pinnacle, bet365)

The Senators were expected to have a miserable season, both on the ice (lost a few key players) and off it (poor sales of season tickets, low attendance, fans not happy with the owner, many issues with the new arena project...). So far they have struggled in defence but at least their offense has been delivering on most nights. Their overall record is W6 L7 OL3 and their last 8 matches have registered at least 6 goals. In their last two away matches they only scored 1 and 2 goals, but they have scored at least 3 goals in each of their away games before that.

I don't know much about Tampa Bay but they have scored at least 4 goals in their last 4 matches (2 at home, 2 away) and their last 3 matches had at least 6 goals. So I believe they should find it easy to put at least 3-4 pucks in the Senators' net while Ottawa should score at least 2.

Since I don't really follow NHL or ice hockey, I will keep the stakes small. But on paper there's a lot of value in the odds!

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I am sorry that I could not reply - I have turned all notifications off. But I think "keep the stakes small" shows my confidence - mainly because I know very little about hockey and can't be bothered to watch the games.

Tampa Bay Lightning delivered the goods as expected - 4 goals.

The Senators went into overdrive, scored 5 and added another one in the final minute (I assume at an empty net).

It was a weird match - Ottawa took a 2-0 lead, Tampa Bay turned it around to 2-4 and then Ottawa woke up to finish in style: 6-4

 

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San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens - Canadiens to win at 1.99 with pinnacle

I am taking Montreal to win in regulation (bet void in case of draw) - they just snapped a bad streak of 5 losses, winning convincingly at home against the NY Rangers. 4 of these losses were close (2 OT losses, 2 single-goal losses) and Shea Weber's return worked well for the team.

This is the last game in a long road trip for San Jose - they lost in Vegas, Buffalo, Toronto and Ottawa. So things are not going well for them and I have a feeling they can't wait to get back home. I believe their next home game will be more important for them than this one.

There's talk among the Canadiens now to take it one game at a time and try to push for a play-off spot, so they should be motivated in front of a noisy home crowd. I was expecting odds around 1.8, so I will gladly take 1.99.

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Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens - Ottawa to win in regulation time at 2.95 with pinnacle

Montreal had a poor game against the Sharks on Sunday, they have now won only 1 of their last 7 matches.

Ottawa did not play on Sunday and the trip to Montreal only takes a couple of hours. They have won 3 in a row now (they had lost 4 in a row before that). So why are they priced 2.95 to win in Montreal?

I guess it's because of their poor away record and because the Canadiens will be desperate to win. Still, I see value in the odds - it could go either way.

Note that Montreal will visit Ottawa on Thursday, so we get another chance to bet on this match.

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Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators - Bruins to win in regulation time at 1.58 with pinnacle

Boston without a few important players like Bergeron and Chara. They lost 3 of their last 4 games but destroyed high-flying Toronto yesterday (6-3).

Ottawa lost both matches against Montreal but pulled a miraculous home win in overtime against the Pittsburgh Penguins yesterday (1:1). Senators' goalie Craig Anderson played a big role in this. But today Ottawa will use Mike McKenna instead (that's the 3rd game he will start this season) so that should help Boston. The Senator's offence has been severely weakened since Thursday - they lost Matt Duchene and Bobby Ryan (that explains yesterday's 1:1 from a team whose matches usually involve at least 6 goals).

On top of this, the teams already met two times this season and Boston won both matches convincingly.

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The Bruins won 2:1 - but needed overtime. So the bet was a push. Ottawa's goalie Mike McKenna was the best player in the game, apparently. That's two good results in a row for the Senators. There's a big difference between these two games (both ended with 3 goals, including overtime) and the previous high-scoring matches - I will look into betting on Under 6 (or 5.5) in Ottawa's matches next week.

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Calgary Flames to win in regulation time at Ottawa Senators - 1.625 with Pinnacle

The Ottawa Senators have hit rock bottom - they just dealt two of their decent attacking players (Duchene and Dzingel) to Columbus and Mark Stone is expected to be dealt on Monday. These 3 players were pulled out of the squad on Thursday and since then the Senators have played two games, failing to score. Defence is not too bad but offence is gone. Morale is low. They have lost 3 in a row now.

Calgary have won 4 games in a row and are top of the Western division.

To make things more interesting, the Tkachuk brothers (Brady and Matt) are playing against each other in this match with a lot of their relatives in attendance.

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