CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - October 22 - October 28

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23 hours ago, Sm0k3rZ said:

great to see the tennis thread active:ok

The match i am intrigued by is the Kerber vs Osaka match. I saw both of their first round matches. While both lost, really do feel Osaka was worse. Kerber vs bertens in the third set was break after break so it could have gone either way. Osaka struggled big time against Sloane, and the 6-1 third set score reflects that. I dont understand how she is the fav. So i'm gonna be backing Kerber at 2.03. BOL

Good pick .. I was leaning Kerber but I didn't want to give my opinion on the match.. Kerber has let me down so many times.. I also prefer Kerber in the next round vs stephens as well.. Does anyone have thoughts on this ? 

:drums

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1 hour ago, money44 said:

Good pick .. I was leaning Kerber but I didn't want to give my opinion on the match.. Kerber has let me down so many times.. I also prefer Kerber in the next round vs stephens as well.. Does anyone have thoughts on this ? 

:drums

Thanks. it wasn't an easy win..kerber in the second set serving for the match loses the set 7-5. Sloane and kerber really is a coin toss. guess will make a decision on it by tomorrow.

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Monfils vs Isner

I think Gael will win this one, He won the last 3 encounters between the two. Also, he played Johnson who is a big server, not like Isner, but a big server, in 3 sets.
I dont think there is much value here tbh @1,59 to bet on it.
 

Simon vs Gulbis

Simon has 2:1 Head to Head and the last time he won was last year in Vienna. Simon won Metz but after that hes form dropped. Gulbis can win against almost anyone but can also lose badly. He is in good form so I think this one can be a very close one.
I think there is some value in Gulbis +3,5 @ 1,763

 



 

Edited by Capone07

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I will probably go to sleep and wake up before the simon - gulbis match .. If monfils beats isner, as i suspect he might also .. I'm going to hammer Gulbis for a straight win most likely, I'll submit the play here if I make the bet.. Thx guys , We'll see tho .. have to think it over a bit more actually.. ttyl 

Edited by money44

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Ernests Gulbis to beat Gilles Simon @ 2.65 with William Hill

I don't believe that Simon will have an answer for the in form Gulbis serve and dynamic game today.. Yes I hear that he took injury timeout for back problem or something like this last match.. I didn't see it myself, but I saw couple shots in the match.. motivation was there, and fitness level looked to be adequate enough. Simon sometimes is a good indoor player, and I saw him moving very well recently but his win over Mayer in the first round doesn't tell us all that much because Mayer was not in form for that match at all.. He retired at the open, and lost his last 4 straight tournaments in the first round. So lets try Gulbis today to be aggressive on Simon's second serve and earn a break or two. 

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Roger Federer vs Jan-Lennard Struff over 22 games @ 1.854 with Pinnacle

Struff is a good opponent for Federer, since he has had good performances against him previously. Right now, it looks like finally the age is taking Roger’s strength. Obviously, he is still a great player but he doesn’t beat his opponents the way he used to, so i expect some more games.

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1 hour ago, Uriel18 said:

Roger Federer vs Jan-Lennard Struff over 22 games @ 1.854 with Pinnacle

Struff is a good opponent for Federer, since he has had good performances against him previously. Right now, it looks like finally the age is taking Roger’s strength. Obviously, he is still a great player but he doesn’t beat his opponents the way he used to, so i expect some more games.

And just because you bet over 22 games he beats Jan-Lennard in 2 in less than 23 games but you got the void at least.

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Thanasi Kokkinakis (-3.5) to beat Darian King at 1.75 with Pinnacle

Kokkinakis looked really well against Harris in the previous match and has a much higher quality ceiling than King, so I quite like the 3.5 games line. It wouldn't be a massive shock to see King steal a set, but I can't see him stealing a set through more than a break, while Kokkinakis is capable of more breaks and easier sets.

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PL TENNIS STATS 8-9, +12.32 units, ROI 72.5%

Sportsbook: 5dimes (new format i might use sometimes)

Fernando Verdasco  to beat Gael Monfils @ 2.7

Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Daniil Medvedev @ 1.69

Marius Copil to beat Taylor Fritz @ 1.8 

Kei Nishikori to beat Dominic Thiem @ 1.9

Marton Fucsovics to beat MIkhail Kukushkin @ 1.9

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ATP Vienna QF Tsitsipas Medvedev

If we look at head to head, in two matches, both played this year, Medvedev won both of them. but never in straight sets
Even though Tsitsipas won Stockholm, which Medvedev didnt play, Medvedev won Tokyo against much tougher opponents beating Nishikori in the final, Shapovalov and Raonic in SF and QF.
I was leaning towards Medvedev to win this match @ 2.24 but decided
to go over 21,5 games @ 1,507 Pinnacle, high stake

 

Edited by Capone07

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the WTA card looks like a complete coin toss. However that represents some value for a medium stake bet.

Osaka vs bertens

I have gone against Osaka in both her matches. she has patches where she plays well, but when she has won a set, her opponent has helped her by spraying unforced errors. kerber was serving for the match against osaka and lost her head to lose the second set 7-5. Bertens was 3-0 down against stephens and lost the first set only on TB. Won the second and had chances to break in third but couldnt convert. KiKi i feel is playing the better tennis and has the game to trouble Osaka. So i shall be backing the dutch at 2 odd.

 

Kerber vs Stephens

Can someone confirm that stephens coach is not with her in this tourney? while a case could be made for both, i think kerber has a knack of putting alot of balls back in play. While Stephens will like to keep the rally short and go for her winners. Now i'm hoping stephens has an off day so Kerber can capitalize. Kerber has made me win money in both her matches, so i will continue to back her.

 

Both results could be completely different but this is my read on what i have seen so far. BOL

 

 

Edited by Sm0k3rZ

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I've taken Bertens myself in a parlay. I'm thinking she will beat Osaka also.. Naomi is getting used as a punching bag at the tour finals by the resident sluggers of the Wonder woman tennis association. Naomi can lose again, because she is not playing her best tennis right now.. Bertens seems to be playing well enough according to the score lines, and can throw fire bombs. 

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@CzechPunter .- Verdasco is far and away my favorite pick for today. I have seen a couple of his matches, and I mentioned before here that he looks motivated and very fit. Closing the match out yesterday with Edmund..Verdasco was oozing confidence, and he already has the blueprint in mind on how to defeat Monfils. I think Gaels can be a bit tired. Spaniard is serving in this tournament better than I've ever seen, and I'm guessing next match will be his best of the tournament. Also, I have suspicion that Isner was not fit for the last match when Monfils walked over him in straight sets. The odds on Fernando to win are also great, and I'm rating this match to win @ minimum 50% chances. :ok

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