StevieDay1983

UEFA Nations League Predictions > Oct 11th - 17th

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A showdown with intense grading, Greece must never lose. The next one welcomes Finland and can overtake it. I expect to be a hard game with few goals and phases, with many goals from both teams
FINLAND vs GREECE @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.40

The quality of Bosnia is a given and with three out of three today across Northern Ireland it will end well with the group's first. The visitors count only defeats away
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA vs NORTHERN IRELAND @@ BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA, odds 1.65

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Spain vs England

UEFA Nations League A Group 4 reaches a pivotal stage tonight when Spain host England at the Benito Villamarin in Seville for this 7:45pm kick-off. The home side can seal their place in the Nations League Finals next summer with a win whilst the away side can put themselves of the brink of ensuring survival in League A if they win.

Spain haven't lost a game over 90 minutes since their 2nd Round exit in a 2-0 loss to Italy back at the 2016 European Championship. Under head coach Luis Enrique, the team is flourishing after a disappointing performance at the 2018 World Cup that saw them lose 4-3 on penalties to Russia after a 1-1 draw in the 2nd Round. A 2-1 away win over England and a 6-0 destruction of Croatia at home has seen them move 5 points clear of Group 4 with two games still to play.

England have flattered to deceive. A morale boosting 2018 World Cup has left a feel good factor and Gareth Southgate's emphasis on youth is encouraging. However, the results are still not quite there. The 2-1 loss at home to Spain was gut-wrenching but the 0-0 draw out in Croatia was frustrating with England failing to take a number of key chances to win.

It feels like this game is still a battle of two sides that are a different class. Spain are in the top bracket right now. The Nations League Finals spot is theirs to lose. They completely destroyed Wales in a friendly last week with practically their back-up team. They made it look easy. Wales weren't great but it was more because Spain made us play that way.

Southgate will want to see some actual results some point soon. Drawing with Croatia away is by no means a poor result but if England are to take that next step up in their evolution under Southgate then given the chances they had against an under-performing Croat side they need to do better.

Unfortunately, I think England could fall just short here. Spain haven't lost a competitive game on home soil since a 1-0 loss to Greece in the 2004 European Championship qualifiers on 7th June, 2003. That Greece team went on to famously win that European Championship. That is the feat that England are up against. It's great to see the likes of Jadon Sancho, Ross Barkley, James Maddison, Mason Mount, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Marcus Rashford being given opportunities but a game like this will be too much.

I think England will give it a go but Spain will have too much and come away with the win. If I had to back a correct score I'd say maybe 2-1 win for Spain. Definitely would back both teams to score. Paco Alcacer was irresistible against Wales and he could be worth backing to score at any time having scored 9 goals in his last 5 games for club and country.

Spain to Win @ 1.67 with Coral

Paco Alcacer Anytime Scorer @ 2.70 with Betway

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Switzerland v Iceland

Switzerland to win @ 1.75 seems decent. Switzerland was impressive against Belgium, but i don't think Iceland is going to take another 6-0 again. More like a 2 goals diff win. Small to medium stake.

Spain v England

Where i'm from, Spain to win is @ 1.55 which is a bit too low for my taste. I think the game is going to be tighter than what the odds implies and if i'm proven right i might place a live bet on this. 

France v Germany
I think France is a vastly superior team in every aspects, but these french guys are pretty lazy when the stakes are low. Though Deschamps said he wanted to go to the final round, and he usually get what he want from his players...
The very worst that can happen for France here is another draw, but France to win @ 1.65 is a bit low here imo. There is a good chance that the first half will be closed and that France odds will go as far as ~2 in game. 

Re : long-term bet on the group phase : 
Apparently combining Belgium/Portugal/any others teams to finish first isn't allowed at my bookies since these outcomes are seen as not independents (kinda bs but whatever), so i ended up just putting money on Portugal @ 1.5 which is looking good so far. 

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Nations League

Macedonia has under 2.5 goals in their last 5 away international matches.
Georgia allowed opponents to score over 0.5 goals in last 5 international matches.
France has over 2.5 goals in their last 4 home international matches.
Armenia allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 4 home international matches.
Cyprus lost their last 8 away international matches.
Norway scored in last 9 home international matches.
Bulgaria scored in last 10 international matches.

You can find interesting 35 Football Betting Streaks for 16.10.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-16-10-2018-11654

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Republic of Ireland vs Wales

The final day of Nations League action has one of the biggest games of the round with Republic of Ireland facing off against Wales in the League B Group 4 clash in a 7:45pm kick-off at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin where the losing team could be faced with the prospect of dropping down to League C and the winners will put themselves in with a chance of earning promotion to League A.

Republic of Ireland got played off the park by Wales in a 4-1 defeat in Cardiff back in September. I attended that game and I'm not sure Martin O'Neill's side were as bad as the score-line suggested but Ryan Giggs certainly got the best out of his players in that game.

The Irish will be buzzing after earning a solid 0-0 draw at home against Denmark to keep the Danes within touching distance. It was a performance that drew criticism due to the overly defensive set-up of the Irish but given their general squad depth and injury list it's not surprising that O'Neill adopted that approach.

Wales lost 2-0 to a Christian Eriksen-inspired Denmark side after their win over Republic of Ireland in their opening game. A win is needed here to give themselves a chance to top the group but they're going to have to do it the hard way. Wales are missing a number of key players including Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey, and Ethan Ampadu. It's a chance for others to shine but it does feel awfully similar to a year ago when Republic of Ireland faced an injury-hit Wales and pipped them to a play-off spot for the 2018 World Cup.

The 4-1 hammering Wales suffered at home to Spain last week did no favours. It was a friendly that split the fan base with some, including myself, wondering why the friendly was played. The only reason we could see was that it was a cheap money-making ploy by the FAW and that was disappointing. It damaged morale, it caused aggro between fans, and saw a return to the dreadful Millennium Stadium which has been the site of so many Welsh failures over the years.

As a Welshman, I'm in the minority being pessimistic about this game. Republic of Ireland lack quality but they compensate with hard work and industrious play. I'm excited to see the likes of David Brooks, Tom Lawrence, and Harry Wilson come of age but I still think our young players are a year or two off being able to thrive in these sorts of games.

Our defence looked unusually shaky against Spain. Yes, Spain have a cracking front-line but basic errors like leaving Sergio Ramos unmarked at a corner were unsettling. I'm not convinced we'll shut Ireland out. I still think we should score but it's going to be tough. My gut thinks a 1-1 draw is the best correct score shout but I fear we might come away with a loss here. Still, I have to keep faith as a Welshman. Given the odds, I'm backing Wales draw no bet and both teams to score. Cymru am byth!

Wales Draw No Bet @ 2.57 with MarathonBet

BTTS @ 2.50 with Bet365

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UEFA Nations League, Tuesday 16th

Slovenia v Cyprus

Betting suggestion: Slovenia -1,25 @2,75

When we had a few nice matches from betting perspective yesterday, we have only a few of them today. The only one I really liked is a match between Slovenia and Cyprus, but as odds on Slovenia are pretty short, I will decrease the stake and take higher odds here. Slovenia is in the middle of the crisis, where the public is already demanding the new manager, the new captain, new faces in the squad, etc. Truth is, that new manager is having some issues with the first star of this team, Atletico’s Jan Oblak, while Kevin Kampl, probably the second best individual of the team didn’t come due to the virus. To be honest, everything might have been different if Slovenians took their chances in the first match, where they were a better side than Bulgaria, but they were simply unlucky, or let’s say not concentrated enough in the key moments when Bulgarians scored two from their one chance. Huge difference with the first match against Cyprus will be a participation of Josip Iličić, who is by far the best offensive player in this team. Second difference participation of defensive midfielder Krhin, who is part of huge critics as well, but without him, this team is completely without a defensive block in the midfield. That was one of the main reasons why Cyprus caused so many problems to Slovenia in the first match. Of course, the main reason was simply the fact, that Slovenia even in the form they were in, underestimated their opponent. They didn’t take the match seriously, the coach changed 5-6 standard players, and they simply failed. Even in this case, they should get the 1-2 goal, which was disallowed unfairly due to the “offside” and then at the end, thanks to the own-goal of Stojanović who had a very poor game, Cyprus even managed to get all three points. As said yesterday, comparing those two teams is impossible. There is a huge difference in quality even without Kampl and Oblak, Slovenia has a much stronger squad and as there were few poor performances of this nation, I think that they have a perfect rebound ramp set today and I expect a convincing win for the home side. Cyprus is a team which is getting better, which is definitely a better side than a few years ago, but still, I think that except with ultra-defensive style and hoping on some luck from counters, they cannot really harm Slovenia away. I’ve been looking up to -2 with odds above 5,20 as I think there is some value for sure.

 

Norway v Bulgaria

Betting suggestion: Norway -1 @2,31

I think that if matches Slovenia v Bulgaria, and Bulgaria v Norway were played one more time, Bulgaria would very possible have 1 point and not 6 as they do right now. They had one amazing shot from distance and received one gift from the goalkeeper on the first match against Slovenia, and that was enough for 1-2. On the match against Norway, they had barely some dangerous situations but one goal was enough to beat them. On the other side, Norway had 12 corners, 10 shots, … Norway had some problems with Slovenia in the first 20 minutes, but after that, they established their way of football, physically stopped Slovenia who failed to create anything serious and Norwegians were simply better. Truth is, that the only goal, amazing goal of Selnaes came without a serious chance, but Norwegians were able to create some half-chances, being dangerous from wings but Slovenia managed to keep it only at 1-0. Norway has some very good individuals in their team, playing visible roles in their clubs and in my opinion, they are still the first favorite for the 1st spot in this group. Bulgaria will try to defend deep and keep their conversion rate as high as it is, but I think that their key player Popov will have difficulties with physical style of Norway’s defenders and defensive midfielders. If Norway succeeds at stopping Popov, I see this match being completely one-sided and I expect at least 2-0 win for the home side.

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