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BillyHills

2018 Russian Grand Prix

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Russian GP (Sunday UK 12.10pm)

An early start for this weeks GP and a later slot for the race on the calendar. We have only had 4 races here, the first two were at about this time of the year but the last two have been Race 4 in the schedule.
Mercedes have completely dominated this race wining all four GP's even with Valtteri Bottas last year who was behind Vettel on the front row. In fact the Mercs have led for all but 8 laps of the 211 driven around this Sochi circuit.

The limited stats will tell you we have had 3 safety cars in four years and an average of over 4 retirements per race. We should just remember last year we had a non starter in Alonso who pulled off in the warm up lap, Ricciardo's brakes failed on the 5th lap and we had two drives hit each other at turn 1 on the opening lap. Basically we had no drama after lap 5 so the value in the 'Overs' could be worth pursuing.

Max Verstappen looks likely to receive grid penalties and Red Bull as a team look a very dodgy proposition here this week leaving the race to Hamilton and Vettel once again. Bottas should take care of Raikkonen, another driver on his way out of a team and not much to play for.

So at this very early stage we are looking at Hamilton for the win, Bottas for a podium spot and Over 15.5 finishers!!

Screen Shot 2018-09-25 at 09.50.49.png

 

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Russian GP

Bottas starts from pole once again and this looks a one sided affair with the Mercedes team well clear of the pack. Bottas is as big as 9/4 with PP as they obviously think even if he does lead Hamilton (4/6) early he will surely bow to team orders and let the Brit go past to take the chequered flag. Its 8/11 for the Dual Forecast for those that believe its a 2-car race.

As a result of this Vettel is a decent 5/1 for his loyal followers, an EW bet at 1/3 odds is not bad but not big enough to tempt me this week.

The Red Bulls start 17th/18th but should still make the top 6 all things beinbg equal, Riccardo starts in front of Max and is the bigger price so I'll take the 10/11 with most firms.

Its 2/5 a Safety Car with Unibet and that looks the right call while i'm sticking to my guns with the overs at 8/11 with Bet365.

I like  a sporting bet and this week i'm backing Haas to be the first car to retire at 8/1, both Grosjean and Magnussen are in the thick of things right from the start and both are known to be a tad careless at times. Some of the other usual suspects are out the back and may escape any trouble.

Over 15.5 8/11 bet365
Safety Car 2/5 Unibet
Top 6 Ricciardo 10/11 PP
Haas to retire first 8/1 bet365

 

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Yes Billy this looks like a one sided affair, I'm just wondering with a 40 point gap, will Mercedes finally let Bottas win this race if he is able to maintain his lead over Lewis after the first corner. I think Mercedes might just let Bottas win this race if Vettel is behind Lewis in the race, thus Lewis able to extend his championship lead. So I'll go with a small stake on Bottas for the win.

I'll go for the first lap retirement at better price instead of safety car. The earlier Formula 2 race does have some chaos in the first corner as it is a long run and slipstream will be very useful in overtaking in the run to the first corner, therefore it is reasonable to expect some driver to bulldoze through other drivers with cold brakes and limited space to evade.

Top 6 for either Ricciardo or Verstappen should be a good bet. They are the best of the rest and they do look like they have very good pace on this track from practice and their run in Q1 yesterday.

For in running, I'd be looking if the Ferrari can jump one of the Mercedes at the start, so the Mercedes will have better price for winning the grand prix. I just think the Merc will be too strong for the Ferrari on this track. But just have to bear in mind this track is not one of the easiest to overtake.

Anyway Good luck Billy!

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Probably worth noting that Renault is in with a good chance for both cars to finish in the points @2.20 (bet365) because they are starting on the ultras from 11th and 12th as compared to those qualified from 5th to 10th who will start on the hypers which is a slightly slower strategy. Both cars to finish in the points for Red Bull as well @1.72 (Bet365)

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