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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - October 8 - October 14

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Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-3.5) to beat Viktoria Kuzmova at 1.83 with Bet365

Kuzmova has been a mess for a while now, while Pavlyuchenkova has been playing reasonably well and shouldn't mind the conditions at all, so I quite fancy her to cover this handicap line in round one. The match win can be taken as well I reckon, but I don't mind the additional risk in this case.

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Muguruza/Sorribes Tormo under 18.5 games 1.72 @Bet365

Based on recent form, Muguruza has covered under 18 games recently in the Asian swing this year against van Uytvanck, Golubic, Makarova who are a little better than Sorribes Tormo. Sorribes Tormo is a player lacking any power behind her serve and not as big groundstrokes as the average WTA player and can't really hit past Muguruza.

Muguruza's only losses this Asian swing this year have come against players with more power and the ability to move her round the court and simply don't see that in Sorribes Tormo. She's like a b-grade Errani

 

 

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Alex de Minaur (-2,5) to beat Vasek Pospisil at 1.72 with bet365

This match starts in 45 minutes. Alex has improved a lot. Against Tsitsipas he played a good match but i think that the fatigue was key in the 3rd set (a lot of matches in his legs). Actually he has to be rest and he's better than Vasek (he has a good serve but i see De Minaur better in the other aspects of the game).

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Not happy because finally i didn't post 2 other bets that i had in my mind because i was a little bit scared of the oponents (Hurcackzs +4,5 against Chung and Ebden +4,5 against Thiem). I have no balls. Sorry for posting my last prediction 30 minutes before the match started, this will be the last time i do this. If i post some prediction for tomorrow i will do it in 2 o 3 hours.

PD: anybody have seen Cilic against Jarry? Cilic won the first set and lost the second one in the tiebreak. In the third set he was serving for the match (5-4 and 30-15). Well, he lost that game, then Jarry hold his serve and then broke Cilic for second time (5-7 and match for Jarry). Definitely Cilic has his mind in the Davis Cup.

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Richard Gasquet to beat Juan Martin Del Potro at 3.33 with Pinnacle

JMDP was sick on Sunday.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (vs. Lapko) + Roger Federer (vs. Medvedev) at 1.76 with Unibet

This is based solely on what I've seen over the last few days. Medvedev wasn't good today and should be tired, while Lapko won only because Bencic lost the thread completely after the first set.

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Polona Hercog (+5,5) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.72 with bet365

Roberto Bautista (2-0) to beat Mackeznie Mcdonald at 1.83 with bet365

Karolina is the favourite here but I expect some resistance from Hercog, at least to cover this handicap. In this Asian Tour she has beat some decent players like Mónica Puig (6-4, 6-4), Christina Mchale (7-6, 6-1), Sorana Cirstea (3-6, 6-1, 6-3) and Coco Vandeweghe (6-2,6-1). In the 1st round here she won against Lara Arruabarrena (7-6, 6-2). Karolina won against Lepchenko (6-2, 6-7, 6-3) in the 1st round here. Like I said Karolina is the favourite but i expect some resistance from Polona, at least to cover this handicap. Nothing much to say about the other match. I still see Mackenzie as a challenger player and im not impressed at all with his victory against Raonic. Bautista should win most of the long rallies here.

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Magda Linette to beat Aryna Sabalenka @ 6.0 with 5dimes

Guys - Everyone knows Sabalenka is on fire but she won 3rd set 6-0 also in Beijing only to lose in the next round.. That was against a tougher opponent Garcia. Who knows how good Kenin is playing at the moment. I think she is also tired. Linette has experience in this tournament, and I believe that Sabalenka's magic has come to an end here as it did in Beijing.  Sabalenka is the type of player when in great form .. She wins Beijing touranment, instead of losing Qiang Wang in straight sets who gets routed by Wozniacki in the following round. Yes I know Caroline won the tournament , and she beat up everybody. That does scare me somewhat. Linette will use here legs to force errors from the tired Sabalenka who has been playing a ton of great tennis with perfect technique.. But, I do believe she needs some more endurance in here legs. We will see if I am the idiot today or the genius... But I really like this pick alot , and one of those female giants is going down tomorrow.  Is it Pliskova, Muguruza losing to Bogdan or maybe a lesser ranked chinese with the big upset on home turf.. Very much a possibility Garcia or Martic losing.. so Thats 5 total players Pliskova, Muguruza, Garcia, Martic, and Sabalenka.. One of these players in my opinion is going to lose, and I can see Linette most clearly.  The others I am scared to bet against, and not real confident with their opponents either.. I like the fact that Linette has experience here, should be rested... although she was wearing tape on her shoulder couple weeks ago.. But she did win a hard fought match against Rodina who sometimes can be tricky to against. 

I'm rating this match as 35% to win or more.  Good value if that percentage is anywhere near accurate. Talk to you guys soon, I think there is going to be additional underdogs winning tomorrow .. Its a good day to bet tennis.. I am quite confused where to bet other than this pick here... Could definitely use some help, but some of you might be asleep in Europe... Great Luck !!

 

 

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I see more value on the "womens" vs mens card for the upcoming matches in Tianjin, Hong Kong, and Linz. It looks to me as there is going to be atleast one dog bite on the mens card that is substantial.. But its too tricky for me to figure out based on my own superstitions and god knows what else.  So I'm probably not going to place a single bet on Atp. 

Additional dogs I forget to mention, and yes Bertens should be included in one the possible monsters going down in my previous post.. But pay attention the only match I recommend betting is the tip listed.. The rest is complete chaos to me.  This is other dogs that I believe may win not talked about earlier. 

Mchale @ 6.0, Cepelova @ 5.75, Haas @ 9.8, Hibino @ 4.8, Alexandrova @2.4, Petkovic @ 3.05.  Everymatch I guess, so its a circus guys.. But I hope we can celebrate with Linette win. 

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Borna Coric to beat Del Potro at 2.62 with bet365

Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Kevin Anderson at 2.20 with bet365

Matthew Ebden to beat Peter Gojowczyk at 1.90 with bet365

I see a potential upsets day for tomorrow. Del Potro is with flu and if he is still here is only because Gasquet played horrible at the crutial moments of the match. In the 1set he was serving for winning it and he was broken by Delpo and finally lost it 5-7. In the 2nd one he was serving for winning the tiebreak (6-4) and he finally lost it 7-9, unbelievable. I don’t know how he will be physically but Coric is playing well so this looks like a potential upset. Kevin Anderson did play well today against Kukushkin, playing aggressive and serving very well as always but tomorrow he will face a player that is doing very well these days. Stefanos won Monfils in 3 sets in the 1st round and today has won against Kachanov in straight sets. Nothing much to say about the last one (can’t be considered as an upset), Ebden is playing well (has beat Thiem in the previous round) and feels good in this kind of courts. Gojowczyk looks like has increased his form (he was absolutely out of form before this tournament) but his oponents have been Sock (no comments about his form) and Fucsovics (this victory surprised me a little bit but I have to say that the match was very close).

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Djokovic (2-0) + Federer + Gavrilova at 1.99 with bet365

I will add this for tomorrow. Bautista feels good here but I can’t imagine him wining against Federer. The played 7 times before (16 sets won by Federer and 0 for Bautista). Djokovic looks imperial and Cecchinato plays horrible in hard courts so I can’t imagine him taking a set from Nole. Theorically Gavrilova is the hardest part but she’s in a good form and is better player than Niculescu.

@TennisProfit any reason for that, mate? I don't know any of that players but Fanselow is ranked 423 and Miedler 210

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On 10/9/2018 at 1:58 PM, CzechPunter said:

Richard Gasquet to beat Juan Martin Del Potro at 3.33 with Pinnacle

JMDP was sick on Sunday.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (vs. Lapko) + Roger Federer (vs. Medvedev) at 1.76 with Unibet

This is based solely on what I've seen over the last few days. Medvedev wasn't good today and should be tired, while Lapko won only because Bencic lost the thread completely after the first set.

a friend of mine also bet on Gasquet for that reason :/

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Tatjana Maria 2.00 v Andrea Petkovic @ 2.00 Bet365

 

The courts in Linz aren't that fast or very high bouncing, matches have been stretched out for well over 2 hours yesterday. Can anticipate a longer match as Tatjana Maria has shown she is able to hang around in matches especially when she utilises her slices which would be extremely effective in these conditions. 

Looking at Petkovic's history this year, she struggled last month against Sorribes Tormo and Cabrera. This year losses against Gavrilova, Vinci, Niculescu. Similar players to Maria. I feel this is a pattern in her game which reflects the lack of patience in longer matches especially with players who don't offer the greatest power for their opponents to feed off but have good court positioning and utilise the slice and drop shots effectively, like to stretch matches out.

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Single

Giannessi - Schepper 11.30cet

Gianessi to win @1,66 x 5/10

 

Double (A)

Otte - Berankis 12.30cet

Berankis to win

+

Gasparyan - Bertens 16.00cet

Bertens to win 

 

Total odds @2,10 Bwin x 5/10

Double (B)

Carballes Baena - Tatlot

Baena to win

+

Pliskova - Strycova

Strycova to win

Total odds 1,80 Bet365 x 5/10

 

The 2 doubles in a parlay with 4 all 4 mathes, total odds @3,64 x 3/10

 

 

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Just now, TennisProfit said:

Gianessi to win @1,66 x 5/10 Check :D

WIN :cigar

 

Double (B)

Carballes Baena - Tatlot, Baena to win Check :D

Pliskova - Strycova, Strycova to win Check :D

Total odds 1,80 Bet365 x 5/10 WIN :cigar

 

Double (A)

Otte - Berankis 12.30cet, Berankis to win Check :D

Gasparyan - Bertens 16.00cet, Bertens to win Pending

Total odds @2,10 Bwin x 5/10 Pending

 

Parlay 4

Carballes Baena - Tatlot, Baena to win Check :D

Pliskova - Strycova, Strycova to win Check :D

Otte - Berankis 12.30cet, Berankis to win Check :D

Gasparyan - Bertens 16.00cet, Bertens to win Pending

total odds @3,64 x 3/10 Pending

 

Bertens to go Fullhouse (Jackpot) :) 

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Timea Babos to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 1.61 with bet365

Both players are not in the best form (at least in singles) but looks like Babos is recovering some form and is playing better actually. She won against Su-Wei Hsieh (6-2, 6-2) in the 1st round of the previous tournament and then lost against Shuai Zhang in the 2nd one (6-2, 6-1). In Linz has destroyed Donna Vekic (6-1, 6-1) in the 1st round. Mladenovic has won her first match since the US Open, where she won against Zidansek. I watched her and I have to say that I didn’t liked what I see from her. Her opponent here was Harriet Dart and the match was more equal than the result reflects (6-3, 6-4). I see Babos playing better than her friend so im expecting her to win this.

Krawietz/Mies to beat Brown/Novak at 1.61 with bet365

Novak and Brown are not implicated players in doubles, especially Novak (he is ranked 928 and Brown 184. Mies and Krawietz are good players in doubles and they have played together a lot of matches (Mies only plays doubles). Mies is ranked 95 and Krawietz 80. Just a few minutes ago Novak has won against Brown in singles (6-2, 5-7, 6-4) so im not expecting a full implication now in doubles from them.

Edited by darko08
Mistake

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Kevin Anderson vs Novak Djokovic -3.50 games with Pinnacle 

Both have had 7 matches with advantage 6 to 1 for Djokovic. The most recent one was this year in Wimbledon with win for Nole. That time, Anderson tried to give fight with a very tight 3rd set that in the end Djokovic won. In previous round, Djokovic had a very easy match against Cecchinato, while Anderson had to decide his match against Tsitsipas with a tie break. I think it will be easy for Nole to win this match too.

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Andrea Petkovic to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 1.83 with betfair

Mladenovic today has won against Babos in one of the worst matches that I have seen in a long a time. A match with a lot of double faults, unforced errors, horrible drop shots, etc. Considering that both players have played horrible today and the actual form of Mladenovic I see Petkovic favourite here. Petkovic won against Gorges (1-6, 7-5, 6-4) in the 1st round and Maria Tatjana (6-1, 6-3) in the 2nd one. I expected lower ods for Petkovic so I go with the german player here.

Borna Coric vs Matthew Ebden Over 21.5 games at 1.65 with bwin

Ebden is playing very well here and I think that he can compete against Coric with his game of “serve and volley”. Ebden has won against Tiafoe (3-6, 6-4, 6-3), Thiem (6-4, 6-7, 7-6) and Gojowczyk (6-2, 6-3) while Coric has defeat Wawrinka (4-6, 6-4, 6-3), Klahn (6-4, 6-2) and Del Potro (7-5).

Alexander Zverev + Dayana Yastremska at 1.81 with bet365

Nothing much to say here. I see Zverev playing very solid (more than Edmund) and I think that the power of Yastremska will be too much for Kucova. She’s serving well (incredible numbers of points won with the first serve and even with second one), playing solid and hitting the ball with power.

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Margarita Gasparyan to beat Camila Giorgi at 2.30 with bet365

Well, considering that the day started well for me (2/3 and expecting Petkovic) i want to try one more bet for today and maybe another one for the match between Pavlyuchenkova and Alexandrova. I watched Gasparyan yesterday and I have to say that she’s doing very well, her one-handed backhand is amazing and she’s playing very solid and serving decently. She did title in Tashkent the last week and she has won the last 7 matches she has played (Sharipova, Tatjana Maria, Fanny Stollar, Mona Barthel, Potapova, Monica Puig and Kiki Bertens). Her rival is Camila Giorgi, one of the most aggressive style players of the WTA. Camila won against Parmentier in the 1st round (7-6, 6-3) and Teichmann (7-6, 6-3) in the 2nd one. In the previous tournament (Wuhan) she lost in the 1st round against Krunic (6-4, 4-6, 6-4). When a player like Giorgi is involved is very hard to predict a match but I have the feelings that Gasparyan can frustrate her considering how good is playing the last 2 weeks.

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