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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - October 1 - October 7

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Albert Ramos (+5.5) to beat Juan Martin Del Potro at 1.76 with Pinnacle

Katerina Siniakova (-3.5) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 1.96 with Pinnacle

Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.53 with William Hill

Shuai Zhang (+4) to beat Elise Mertens at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Juan Martin Del Potro didn't want to play the Laver Cup due to injury issues and Ramos is a decent player no matter how you look at it, so the +5.5 games head start looks a touch big to me given that the conditions should help the Spaniard's serve to be at least decent. Katerina Siniakova is on a roll from the qualifiers, while Alison was pretty poor last week from what I've been able to gather. Wawrinka against Fritz should be one of the safest favorite bets from the early rounds, while I also fancy Zhang to put up a good fight against Mertens in home conditions. She was very solid last week, while Mertens was good only in the doubles.

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Shapovalov to beat Chung at 1.67 with SportingBet

I'm quite flummoxed by the price here, as Chung has not been the same player since his injury. He's been going out early in all tournaments since his return, while Shapovalov has been playing relatively well recently.

Khachanov to beat Querrey at 1.60 with SportingBet

Khachanov had a good run in the US Open, giving Nadal a good run for his money. He did lose to Warwrinka in St. Petersburg, although this was in two tie-breaks. I was initially impressed with Querrey earlier this week, but his loss to the one-dimensional Taylor Fritz suggests he is not at the level he needs to be to beat Khachanov, who will offer a much sterner test than Fritz did.

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Juan Martin Del Potro will face Albert Ramos Vinolas in China Open. The only two times both have met, once in Wimbledon and this year in Roland Garros, Delpo has won the matches. Delpo is a better player, however, in both matches Ramos Vinolas has at least tried to give Delpo a good fight. I think he'll do the same in this match.

My pick was over 19 games @ 1.617 with Pinnacle.

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Frances Tiafoe to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.57 with bet365

Tiafoe is in better form than Marterer. This will be the first match in Asia for both players but the surface is better for Tiafoe. Marterer did nothing remarkable since Roland Garros. This will be the second match between them, the first one was in Cincinatti the last year where Tiafoe won in straight sets (6-3, 7-6). Good luck.

Edited by darko08

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Karolina Pliskova to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich at 1.42 with Unibet

Shuai Zhang to beat Timea Babos at 1.62 with William Hill

Short odds, I know, and I'm going to look like an idiot if they both somehow lose, but I feel that they are among the safer favourites tomorrow. Pliskova is chasing the WTA Finals, so plenty of motivation there and her loss last week is excusable. Meanwhile, I very much liked Zhang against Mertens, Babos is a step down in terms of quality.

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Sousa J. - Rublev A.

I really like Andrey Rublev, he's a great talent but how on earth can he be the favourite to win this match :eyes

he's so out of form and he comes up against a guy who's form is very much on the up.

Joao Sousa to win @ 2.25 with Betfair looks a real gift to me.

good luck all :ok

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4 hours ago, yogg said:

Sousa J. - Rublev A.

I really like Andrey Rublev, he's a great talent but how on earth can he be the favourite to win this match :eyes

he's so out of form and he comes up against a guy who's form is very much on the up.

Joao Sousa to win @ 2.25 with Betfair looks a real gift to me.

good luck all :ok

sorry guys, I never saw that coming :cry

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18 hours ago, Uriel18 said:

Juan Martin Del Potro will face Albert Ramos Vinolas in China Open. The only two times both have met, once in Wimbledon and this year in Roland Garros, Delpo has won the matches. Delpo is a better player, however, in both matches Ramos Vinolas has at least tried to give Delpo a good fight. I think he'll do the same in this match.

My pick was over 19 games @ 1.617 with Pinnacle.

Finally I won gentlemen, not a big one, but its a win hahaha:cheers i need it!!

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9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Karolina Pliskova to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich at 1.42 with Unibet

Shuai Zhang to beat Timea Babos at 1.62 with William Hill

Short odds, I know, and I'm going to look like an idiot if they both somehow lose, but I feel that they are among the safer favourites tomorrow. Pliskova is chasing the WTA Finals, so plenty of motivation there and her loss last week is excusable. Meanwhile, I very much liked Zhang against Mertens, Babos is a step down in terms of quality.

I was going to post the victory of Shuai Zhang but you did first haha. What a match from the chinese! She played very solid! She played very aggressive, serving decently (considering that it is her biggest weakness), played very well at the net and she did some epic passing shots, what a show form her! I don't expect her to play as well as she did against Elise Mertens, but if she plays "similar" as she did he should win against a bad in form Babos.

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Aryna Sabalenka to beat Caroline Garcia at 1.50 with William Hill

Going with the most in form player actually. The odds are not the higher obviously but considering the actual form of both players I decided to post it. Caroline was defending a lot of points in this Asian Tour from the last year where she won in Wuhan and Beijing. Siniakova beat her in Wuhan in the 1st round and now she got to face the most in form player in this 3th round of Beijing, not the best scenario considering her actual form. Sabalenka has won the last 10 sets she has played (Kenin, Cibulkova, Barty, Kontaveit and Muguruza). Yesterday I saw her against Mugu and after watching only 3 games (no breaks) I realized that Aryna would win that match in straight sets, even when she was 1 break down in the second set. Good luck.

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On 2/10/2018 at 11:52 AM, CzechPunter said:

Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.80 with William Hill

Early - and I think mistaken - odds that are worth taking. Shapovalov was a joke last week and his serve is getting progressively worse.

Shapovalov 

NOTHING AT ALL WRONG WITH HIS SERVE

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Fucsovics -2.50 (AH) at 1.751 with Pinnacle

Even though Marton Fucsovics is #45 and Marco Cecchinato #22 in the ATP ranking, in the previous round Fucsovics had a better match against A. Seppi, winning 12 to 7 games. On the other hand, Cecchinato had a 3 sets match against Baghdatis, which is not exactly one of the most difficult opponents. Though Cecchinato serve was good, it took him 29 games in total to be the winner in that match. The only time they've met was this year in Munich with win for Fucsovics and I think this time he'll win again.

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Struff/Mclachlan to beat Chung/Ebden at 1.44 with bet365

Nothing much to say. The main reason is that Struff/McLachlan are competing to qualify for the ATP Nitto Finals. Ebden and Chung rarely play doubles (especially Chung) and this is the first time they play together.

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Malek Jaziri to beat Alexander Zverev @ 7.5 with 5dimes

Alexander Zverev was beaten convincingly by Kohlschreiber just 4-5 weeks ago at the U.S. open after winning the first set tiebreak 7 points to 1. This is unusual. Zverev is far more talented, and we are in a grandslam.  Zverev I have also seen running with tape on his knee in the last couple months.. I have not seen many of his matches.  But I'm pretty sure that top form is not there. Agut another player definitely not in his finest hour, and was up a break on Zverev in the first set in previous round.  I don't believe this is a impressive result from Zverev opening round in Beijing. It doesn't tell us that much. I've seen tape on Jaziri in Beijing, and he looks to be healthy again. He also had some nice results in Chengdu winning twice in that tournament as an underdog vs Baghdatis, and again vs Mannarino before losing to Sousa in 3 sets.. In my opinion its impressive.  If Jaziri finds his form .. his heavy shots will be hard for zverev to control for winners on the slower surface of Beijing.  Match could go either way, even tho I believe the bookmaker odds is a fair price.  The value of Jaziri winning for me is best value of all the betting options today men or women. I'm rating this atleast a 25% to win.  so thats + 350 euro profit for every 4 bets like this @ stake 100 euro. Good luck guys, and hope to win and to place another high odds tip in the near future.. If I lose then you will not see me for awhile.. Take great care !!

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Kevin Anderson vs Frances Tiafoe Over 23.5 games at 2.00 with bet365

I have to say that i rarely bet on this kind of market but I'm gonna try the over here. We have 2 players with a big serve (especially Kevin of course) and a high % of first serve on their previous games here. Tiafoe won easily against Marterer (7-5, 6-4) and Kevin suffered a lot against Ebden (4-6, 7-6, 6-2) so I think Kevin is a little bit overrated here considering that i see Tiafoe better than Ebden. The line can be covered with 2 sets if we have 2 long sets (7-5, 7-5). Anyway i don't discard a 3 set match here (in this case the line will be covered of course). Like i said i don't like too much this kind of market so if this goes wrong probably I will not try more under/over for a long time.

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Last bet for today

Shuai Zhang (+4.5) to beat Angelique Kerber at 1.83 with bet365

Im always a little bit scared when i make some kind of bet against the German but considering the oddss and how good  has played Shuai Zhang the last matches i think this line can be covered. The Chinese has defeat Elise Mertens (6-1, 3-6, 6-3) in the 1st round and Timea Babos (6-1, 6-2) in the 2nd one. Like I said on a previous post Zhang is playing very solid, she's being aggressive, serving decently and doing well at the net. Kerber has not won 3 consecutive matches since Wimbledon so actually she's not doing well in hard courts. She won Mladenovic (6-2,6-2) int he 1st round and Carla Suárez in the 2nd one (7-6, 6-1). I really don't care too much about that because Mladenovic is only getting good results in doubles and Carla looks like losing the tiebreak mentally destroyed her. I have no doubts that Zhang will fight the match till the end especially considering that she's playing at home and the crowd will be with her so i don't expect any kind of "disconnection" from her like Carla had.

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Oh my god anybody's watching Sabalenka? What the hell is she doing? she's out of her mind and throwing the first set!

Incredible comeback from Sabalenka, happy for the bet but feeling sad for Caroline because that was hard for her. Won the 1st set and was leading the 2nd one by 5-2. She finally lost it in the tiebreak and that mentally broke her who finally did lost the 3rd set by 6-0. Sabalenka played awfully in the 1st set commiting a lot of unforced errors and double faults (Garcia played decent but really did nothing especial). I take note from that for future rounds. Anyway, happy for this week (5/5).

@money44 Congratulations mate! :notworthy

Edited by darko08

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16 hours ago, money44 said:

Malek Jaziri to beat Alexander Zverev @ 7.5 with 5dimes

Alexander Zverev was beaten convincingly by Kohlschreiber just 4-5 weeks ago at the U.S. open after winning the first set tiebreak 7 points to 1. This is unusual. Zverev is far more talented, and we are in a grandslam.  Zverev I have also seen running with tape on his knee in the last couple months.. I have not seen many of his matches.  But I'm pretty sure that top form is not there. Agut another player definitely not in his finest hour, and was up a break on Zverev in the first set in previous round.  I don't believe this is a impressive result from Zverev opening round in Beijing. It doesn't tell us that much. I've seen tape on Jaziri in Beijing, and he looks to be healthy again. He also had some nice results in Chengdu winning twice in that tournament as an underdog vs Baghdatis, and again vs Mannarino before losing to Sousa in 3 sets.. In my opinion its impressive.  If Jaziri finds his form .. his heavy shots will be hard for zverev to control for winners on the slower surface of Beijing.  Match could go either way, even tho I believe the bookmaker odds is a fair price.  The value of Jaziri winning for me is best value of all the betting options today men or women. I'm rating this atleast a 25% to win.  so thats + 350 euro profit for every 4 bets like this @ stake 100 euro. Good luck guys, and hope to win and to place another high odds tip in the near future.. If I lose then you will not see me for awhile.. Take great care !!

You'll be hanging around for a bit longer then :p. Congrats on the tip but absolute insanity from Sasha. Didn't save any of three break points faced on serve whilst only taking four out of seventeen created on return. He lost to an opponent who made less than 50 percent of first serves and despite winning 52 percent of points to 48 - a big difference in tennis. 

Combine that with the madness of Sabalenka against Garcia earlier and I'd say the phrase "Football...Bloody Hell..." needs to be changed to "Tennis...Bloody Hell..."

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darko08 - that was a great tip on Shuai Zhang yesterday.  I really thought Kerber had a chance in that one. I seen some of the highlights from that match, and it looked like Zhang was playing amazing, and super fit.  I have seen her sandbag matches this year.  She was running very fast on the court vs Kerber, and I'm wondering what you guys think about her next match vs Osaka.  I believe Shuai Zhang has a chance to win the Beijing tournament.  But I'm really curious who you guys think is playing well and who is going to win WTA Beijing China open. 

Edited by money44

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The only entire match i have seen from Osaka here was the one against Julia Gorges. Julia was absolutely destroyed by Osaka (6-2, 6-1). If you take a look at the stats you will realize how Naomi destroyed her (31% of points won with the second serve…!, only 1 ace,…). The question here is if Julia simply played a horrible match or if Osaka played an amazing match. Personally, I think that Naomi played just well and that Julia played a bad match (Naomi making blood on the second serve of Julia was the key I think). Is hard to know how really good is playing Osaka considering the players she has played. She has played Zarina Diyas (6-4, 6-3), Danielle Collins (6-1,6-0) and Gorges. I can’t consider any of them as an in-form player actually (but she destroyed a top ranked player). About Shuai Zhang we know that she has faced more dangerous players (Mertens and Kerber) and that she’s playing some of the best tennis she ever played on her career. The point here is if Shuai will hold the same level against Osaka, and if she does I think she will have some chance, at least to competing with her.

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Thanks.  I have two matches I'm considering to bet and maybe will not bet at all .. but I think one of them is going to win .. That is Sanchez/Klepac doubles match @ 2.5, and then you have zhang @ about 4.05.  I feel that Zhang bet is way more dangerous and Osaka might roll over her in a thunder storm. Still searching and can't find much at all for now.  The reason that I like the Sanchez doubles match is because I don't think Strycova is playing well right now.  

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1 hour ago, money44 said:

Thanks.  I have two matches I'm considering to bet and maybe will not bet at all .. but I think one of them is going to win .. That is Sanchez/Klepac doubles match @ 2.5, and then you have zhang @ about 4.05.  I feel that Zhang bet is way more dangerous and Osaka might roll over her in a thunder storm. Still searching and can't find much at all for now.  The reason that I like the Sanchez doubles match is because I don't think Strycova is playing well right now.  

Well, the victory of Keplac/Sánchez is interesting considering that the pair is still not qualified for Singapore while Strycova/Hlavackova are mathematically qualified. Definitely looks very juicy.

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