Football multi-models

[Data]

I've been experimenting with artificial intelligence engines in an attempt to formulate a profitable strategy in the correct scores markets. Beating the market odds though is never going to be an easy task.

The current stage of this research has reached a point where I'm combining three models to take a consensus of them all to indicate highly rated home wins, draws or aways. One model looks at the home team's record and ranks the chances of H,D or A, a second performs the same task with the away side's record, and a final model that looks at both records to reach a conclusion. Because of this consensus far fewer selections are generated, the majority of which are for Home wins, Away wins to a lesser extent and I've yet to see them all agreeing on a Draw ~ maybe justifying my view that a tied result is the most difficult results market to beat.

However, sticking with my original quest of correct scores, as well as a straight H, D or A bet, each selection is also bet as a correct score using the league's most common scoreline.

I'll use the same level stake for each wager, because HDA has a high strike with poor odds (most will be odds-on, but I'm looking for 80% strike) whereas correct scores have better odds but a lower strike rate. My aim is a minimum 10% yield for each bet type. But, the best laid plans . . .

Bets for this weekend are;

ENG Middlesbro v Swansea    1-0
ENG Nottm Forest v Rotherham    1-0
BRA Flamengo v Ath Mineiro    1-0
CHI Dalian Aerbing v Shanghai Shenhua    2-1

10 pt home win on each.
10 pt correct score on each.
 

[liero1]

interesting, following this!

could you show the predicted probability of your bet selection if possible?

cheers! 

[Zico10]

Like the look of this. I love a correct score bet! Like you say they are difficult to predict but I do a correct score heinz each week in the hope I get lucky just once. 

[Data]

20 hours ago, liero1 said:

interesting, following this!

could you show the predicted probability of your bet selection if possible?

cheers! 

There are in fact three individual probabilities (Home, Draw or Away) for each of the three models, so trying to combine these is not I suggest very useful. My trigger for a bet is where all three indicate >0.95 probability. The correct score element is merely the most common score of the particular HDA selection.

 

19 hours ago, Zico10 said:

Like the look of this. I love a correct score bet! Like you say they are difficult to predict but I do a correct score heinz each week in the hope I get lucky just once. 

More fun and better prospects than buying a Lotto ticket for sure. My own correct score preference though is one accumulator on all selections with a win single on each ~ I reckon your chances of winning more and losing less are enhanced. Not maybe as good a return as your full cover if ALL selection win, but still a bonanza payout without risking as much on staking. Also works with no matter how many selections, saves struggling to find bets you may not have made by making up the number of bets required for your exotic bet.

[Zico10]

Yeah the way I see it is my lottery replacement so I write the money off anyway. I only do a 10p heinz so total outlay is £5.70. My biggest win so far is £450 so not quite a lottery payout! 

[Zico10]

Another correct score acca I used to do was the same 7 teams each week and their most common scores over the last 3/4 seasons. I always did the big teams I.e real madrid, barca, bayern, juventus, etc. I reckon with the right set of teams this could be the winning ticket!!