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Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method


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@alani42Sorry I cannot post the excel 1. It is all generated in VBA (so it will only update from the user form) 2. It also contains lots of other data which I am unwilling to reveal (current

Well that the season finished in total there were 140 selections with 76 winners to 1 pt level stakes there was a small loss of 3.45pts ( this would have been improved by finding best prices avai

Hi All To avoid any further confusion I will show just the over 2.5 goal games for Tuesday/Wednesday and add any of the extra picks at the end if you are using your own sheets then your Ratings a

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@note3user Yes I was unlucky also as Colchester had a goal disallowed

Just one query re your La Liga 2 selections

You are only showing 5 games rated and I recommend that a minimum of 70% of the games should be rated in the round

and in round 31 of the league there should be 11 games rated ( 1 game tonight) 

image.png.11df885d4e7573347c29611165c64e3e.png

with there being 22 teams in the league I would recommend that a minimum of 8 games must be played (70% of 11 possible matches = 7.7) and all games even the ones that have been played should be included as previous results can alter the ratings

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For those that are interested I have been working on a new Selection method for next season which I hope will perform a bit better than I have done so far this season ( That being said all selections backed are only showing a loss of 3.85pts from 112 selections)The above stat has convinced me that there is hope in the selection method.

The new selections will be rated using the same criteria as the original i.e 3 lowest pts from both home and away

but it will use a new rating method (Highest being the selection) The new Rating method will use Goals per game and Points per game this combined with table positions and games being won give the selection Back testing over the last 2 seasons is looking promising although it does not always make a selection even when their are enough qualifying games in the round.(for my own personal use it also displays Home and away stats for the game when a Game is clicked in the list) see below image

I will carry on posting the original selections as promised until the end of the season.

Hopefully I will be able to start next season with the new selection method more than likely under a different thread

any comments or ideas are welcome

 

image.png.167f66e15fa48aa0e959a7bf7ad433fd.png

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@alani42Sorry I cannot post the excel

1. It is all generated in VBA (so it will only update from the user form)

2. It also contains lots of other data which I am unwilling to reveal (currently)

If you require help in creating your own sheet and need help with formulas then please ask and I will assist where possible

if you checkout the link posted 13th March this should give you a good starting point

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This weeks round 33 is spread over the below dates with other "catch up Games" being played This is due to FA Cup semi finals being played over the weekend

RND33.PNG.9ac67e81c990ad250121857e3c1b6645.PNG

To avoid any confusion I will not be posting selections for Premiership Round 33 but will add results of games played this week ready for Round 34.

Championship and Leagues 1 and 2 will be posted

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Below are Saturdays selections ( will post Premiership when results have been added)

image.png.ee171d591d4ba5d9ca351d5348adbf40.png

Word of warning here the Portsmouth v Rochdale game has a negative rating on the new rating system which could indicate a low scoring game the selection will still be added to the final results at the end of the season

image.png.27fc629150fbd20daf2fd86ec61de30f.png

Just for info the Crewe v Notts County game is also selected by the new rating system

image.png.dbe26c0f2231966f002cf80cc828618a.png

 

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Final Selection for this season. Its been a long road but the Data collected will be analysed during the closed season With a view to getting something in place for next season. Hope you have enjoyed the journey and for those who created their own leagues perhaps you have learnt something :hope

Any ideas or suggestions will be welcomed 

Will post P/L after results have been entered

image.png.840cd5cd39a1bdff839c0f7214474777.png

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Well that the season finished

in total there were 140 selections with 76 winners to 1 pt level stakes there was a small loss of 3.45pts ( this would have been improved by finding best prices available I only used prices from Sportsbook and W Hill)

Breakdown by league

Premiership

28 selections 17 winners with a loss of 0.63pts

Championship

38 selections 21 winners with a loss of 0.95pts

League 1

39 selections 17 winners with a loss of 7.78pts

League 2

35 selections 21 winners with a profit of 5.91pts

If you had only backed selections that were evens or greater

32 selections 17 winners profit of 3.47pts

The work now begins on next season I will start a new thread for that

 

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