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Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method


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  • 2 weeks later...

@Kentucky110

I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red)

what is the home ranking ( is it ranking in terms of total goal or ranking in terms of home goal) for the home team and vice-versa for the away team.

I now have a total of 6 games to consider. I now find the lowest Total ranking and if this is one of the 6 games then it becomes the selection for over 2.5 goals

what is the total ranking. 

 

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3 hours ago, Kentucky110 said:

Selections for this weekend

image.png.d73ae632d2793e96a3d1eb40b59ed4d7.png

image.png.67004844fe1e6f408c220645cb791fec.png

image.png.654948dad93e5fccdb3c305edb899618.png

image.png.2dd69aa609cf2b7a4456a7bc026457a2.png

Some conclusions from selections so far

79 bets in total 42 winners

premiership 17 bets 11 winners

championship 21 bets 11 winners

league 1 21 bets 9 winners

league 2 20 bets 11 winners

 

Hi. So what’s profit and loss? What’s odds you taking? Cheers 

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@liero1If you look at the post 30th Jan you can see it was showing a small loss then ( and still is)

Odds have been taken at either W Hill or Betfair Sportsbook I will keep on until the end of the season as the program is collecting lots of other data that will be analysed during the closed season. This project is a long term thing  that I hope will prove fruitful.

below is an image of some of the data being collected

to view it a bit more easily you should be able to copy it and Paste it into word then zoom in

this is only part of the Data being saved pre-game and calculations are made pre game

image.thumb.png.acfc949b4ee19e7d65f415b5fa53a950.png

to give an indication of how some of the data can be used

If we take the game Cardiff v Bournemouth on Sat 2nd Columns league positions & variance shows (data is BEFORE the game)

image.png.01590db5de6eb341a6183ff281286516.png

Cardiff are 15th in the Home games Table ( I only use Home and Away form tables)

Bournemouth are 16th in the Away games Table (a difference of 1 place) 

When Bournemouth played Cardiff on 11th Aug they won 2-0 Since then they have only won 6 home games ( great effort against Chelsea but in my opinion Chelsea are better at home than they are away the stats prove that)

Var H = Cardiff are 4 places better when playing at home than they are away

Var A = Bournemouth are -10 places when playing away than they are at home

Abs = the absolute difference (Var H - Var A)

Draw from this snippet your own conclusions

This information based on other calculations like BTTS data , Games won etc may show some interesting stats but that will be for next season.

Good luck and thanks for showing an interest

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On 28/01/2019 at 12:27 AM, YoungBishop said:

@Kentucky110

I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red)

what is the home ranking ( is it ranking in terms of total goal or ranking in terms of home goal) for the home team and vice-versa for the away team.

I now have a total of 6 games to consider. I now find the lowest Total ranking and if this is one of the 6 games then it becomes the selection for over 2.5 goals

what is the total ranking. 

 

@YoungBishop apologies for the late response but your query didn't pop up on the post 

Perhaps I didn't explain clearly in the above post

I will try to explain a little more clearly

see example below for tonight's Game

Aston Villa v Sheff Utd 

(Av.GFH= Average Goals scored by home team Home games only) (Av.GH = Total goals (home+away) Home games only)

(Av.GFA= Average Goals scored by away team Away games only) (Av.GH = Total goals ( away+home) Away games only)

Aston Villa Av.GFH 2.27 Ranked 2 + Av.GH 4.07 Ranked 1 = Rating 3

Sheff Utd Av.GFA 1.60 ranked 4  + Av.GA 2.80 Ranked 9 = Rating 13

This gives a Master rating of 16

One thing to note Selections are only made if a minimum of 70% of games are played in the round

A round consists of scheduled games to played as in the case of the Championship this week these can be played over a number of days if you look a the fixture list this will give you games in the round for the week example Championship this week is Round 31

so in a 20 team league (gives a round of 10 matches) minimum of 7 games must be played

24 team league (gives a round of 12 matches) minimum of 8 games must be played

Results are updated as soon as they are confirmed as this sometimes changes the selection

Example 5 games were postponed in League 2 Last Saturday so no selection was made

 

image.thumb.png.7c76d63cdac24c883b6684ce0af9ee41.png

 

If you look through the posts there is a google sheet that can be downloaded ( you will need to update it) this should help to explain a little more clearly

Any questions please feel free to ask

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