Is it possible to be profitable without any prediction model ?

[darksidersfk]

Hello everyone, I would like to know if we (the people who just can't create a model) must do to be profitable in football markets.

I tried many times to build a model but I just can't get there. I have all the ideas, what data I want to use and what I want to do with it but I just can past that information to an excel sheet, apply the formulas (which I don't know how and what to apply) and build something.

So I would like to know if there anyone here that don't have a model but is profitable in the long run and some tips to achieve that and ofc if someone want to help me in the model process I'm here to ear you.

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @darksidersfk   

[liero1]

a system is a system if you follow certain criteria when you chose if you back (or lay) or not.. So you don't need it mathematically written down, if it's in your head it's still your system.

BUT I would doubt that you just can create it in your head without testing it on historic data.. well you might be super lucky and hit long term success but that seems highly unlikely..

btw, PM me if you like some help with data.

 

[real55555]

Yes & No.

Yes is if you are really lucky, or you have information of fixed matches, or you have certain information that is very likely to influence the result of a match that is not known to the bookmakers or most of the people.

No is you will doubt yourself when you hit a losing run, whether your 'data' will give you a profit in the long run. Or even worse the 'data' that you based on is actually not profitable. 

[darksidersfk]

Those 2 replies made me think about this matter over and over haha.

I dunno If I should just study more about predictions models, programming language (since nobody uses excel for betting models) or I should just keep trying to see the stats, missing players, form etc and predict the % of the differente outcomes.

 

Edit: With precition model I'm talking about a model where you input data and get all % of the game.

 

Hmmm :/

Edited September 20, 2018 by darksidersfk

[darksidersfk]

On 18/09/2018 at 3:00 PM, liero1 said:

a system is a system if you follow certain criteria when you chose if you back (or lay) or not.. So you don't need it mathematically written down, if it's in your head it's still your system.

BUT I would doubt that you just can create it in your head without testing it on historic data.. well you might be super lucky and hit long term success but that seems highly unlikely..

btw, PM me if you like some help with data.

 

I can't PM since I'm new here @liero1

[liero1]

8 hours ago, darksidersfk said:

Those 2 replies made me think about this matter over and over haha.

I dunno If I should just study more about predictions models, programming language (since nobody uses excel for betting models) or I should just keep trying to see the stats, missing players, form etc and predict the % of the differente outcomes.

 

Edit: With precition model I'm talking about a model where you input data and get all % of the game.

 

Hmmm :/

why dont you paper trade your ideas for a few weeks and see how it goes? If you got decent number of bets and are in a decent ROI, you could start with lower stakes real money.

 

and yes you can use excel for betting models, at least i do..

[darksidersfk]

17 hours ago, liero1 said:

why dont you paper trade your ideas for a few weeks and see how it goes? If you got decent number of bets and are in a decent ROI, you could start with lower stakes real money.

 

and yes you can use excel for betting models, at least i do..

Atm im betting Without any automated model. Only me looking at the stats and news etc and then betting on the game if something feels good to me. Cant determine in my head what is the % of each outcome.

I think i can Never get that "edge". Can't people be profitable only by having a good roi? Edge is really the main thing to be profitable long term?

 

Can u send me a pm with some platform to talk? I Cant send messages here.