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StevieDay1983

L1, L2, and Scottish Predictions > Sep 14th & 15th

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Let's get this show on the road....

i find myself with a quieter week at work, so I have time to have a look at the stats above.

i fancy a BTTS acca this week,

Burton V Sunderland, Cov V Barnsley, LUTON V Bristol Rovers,, Posh V Pompey, MKD V FGR,Newport V Yeovil, Swindon V Bury

Looking at the ratings, the teams who seem to have a clear advantage this week are Charlton, Barnsley, Accy Stan, Giils, Donny Rovers,Colchester, Creepy Crawley, Yeovil, Livingston, Hearts and Rangers.

Gillingham are catching my eye this week away to Rochdale.

They are currently 4.5 to win, & 2.0 on the DC/X2

Its a case of 14th V 15th in this mid table League 1 encounter, with Rochdale 1 point above, but with a worse goal difference (4 goals worse)

Gillingham have a superior ratings over Rochdale, so this suggests they must be putting the performances in, but not getting results. In fact of their last 5 match sequence LLLDL, they have played 3 of the top 4, conceededing 8 in two of those matches (Pompey (A) being a EFL CUP game), so a tough set of fixtures for them so far.

They are not playing top 4, it's Rochdale, 1 place, 1 point, above them, with a worse goal deficit 

The other two matches in their last 5 sequence have been a 1-1 draw against Coventry & a 1-0 loss to Wombledon. Both these teams sit 1 point above the Gills, in 12th & 13th place

 (Under 2.5 goals is currently 2.0)

So taking all of this into account, Gillingham should be in with a decent shout of Winning if they can perform as the ratings suggest.

By the way, the last time I opposed Rochdale at home, Walsall came up trumps at 4.2!

@allyhibs sorry for the bad language, but are the Jambos value away at Motherwell (2.3) or Livingston at home (1.9)?

Crawley  should continue to impress under the new manager too. @1.85 

 

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premiership

Celtic won their last 3 games in Premiership.
Celtic scored in last 3 away games in Premiership.
Celtic scored in last 6 games in Premiership.

You can find interesting 63 Football Betting Streaks for 14.09.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-14-09-2018-11268

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i'm gonna suggests this acca on saturday. it has decent chance 

acca one

crystal palace

derby

man utd

sunderland

fleetwood

walsall

carlisle

mk dons

 

stake £20    pays £12.000

good luck 

 

acca two

hull city

middlesbrough

derby

lincoln

crystal palace

bournemouth vs leicester btts

bristol city vs sheff utd btts

bradford vs charlton btts

 

stake £20    pays £10.000

good luck

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@Tiffy

Hearts are now 2.50 which if you held me down and waterboarded me I might admit to being a bit of value. You'll never get me tipping that lot though, so I'd say this, Hearts aren't as good as the table suggests, they'll lose their 100% record sooner or later. If Motherwell play like they did last time out against Rangers then it could be sooner. I am of course completely unbiased.

Livingston could be a shout, their horrendous artificial pitch gives them an undoubted advantage when they're at home, just like Kilmarnock when they're at home, but I'm not sure 1.91 has any value. Maybe one for an acca.

I won't be betting on either of these games.

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Plymouth vs Blackpool

The first preview of this week's games is a controversial one because I'm going against what a lot of the factors are suggesting. It's the Plymouth versus Blackpool kick-off from Home Park at 3pm on Saturday. Both sides have their problems but there's value to be had here.

Plymouth have had a torrid start to the season with three draws and four defeats from their opening 7 league games. This has left Derek Adams and his side languishing at the bottom of the League One table. It's not the start to the campaign the Pilgrims envisioned.

A summer of comings and goings at the club has meant that the new look squad has not gelled quickly. This has not only seen Plymouth score just 2 goals in their last 5 games but has also meant that they have suffered heavy defeats in the form of a 5-1 loss at home to Peterborough and a 3-0 defeat away to Portsmouth. Morale is low at the club right now. However, due to the Pilgrims starting slowly last year as well, only to be bailed out by a superb run of results after November, there is hope they can do it again. It's a dangerous game though.

Blackpool's dire situation continues. The Oyston family remain clinging onto power like desperate tyrants that are grasping at straws to stay afloat. How on earth the Football League and FA haven't stepped in because it's clear they are killing the club. Fans are staying away, the atmosphere around the place is toxic, and it seems like it's only a matter of time before the worst case scenario happens.

That being said, the players continue to do the business on the pitch. The Seasiders are 9th in League One with just one defeat in the league all season. This has come against a backdrop of continued discontent and disruption with former manager Gary Bowyer departing the club after just one game and being replaced by Terry McPhillips. McPhillips has done a great job at keeping form stable.

There are a couple of key points here that are making me want to back a Blackpool result. Blackpool have drawn all three away games 0-0 this season. They know how to keep a tight back-line on the road. They are just lacking a goal at the other end and it's only a matter of time before that happens. Could it happen against an Argyle side that conceded 5 at their place just a couple of weeks ago?

The head-to-head is also an eye-opener. Blackpool have an incredible record at Home Park. That's particularly impressive given the fact that it's a 640 mile round trip between the clubs. The Seasiders haven't lost an away game to Plymouth since 26th April, 2008. That's a record of four straight wins at Home Park. I should add that in those four games Blackpool scored 10 and conceded just 2.

I'm reluctant to back an away side in the previews but I just feel there is a siege mentality amongst the players at Blackpool right now. As the club falls apart around them they have this desire to just keep doing their business. Meanwhile, at Plymouth, the panic has yet to set in after last season's turn in form. A lot of their fans still feel it's a typical poor start. They don't seem concerned that they are bottom of the table. This naive apathy will surely filter through to the players. 

Blackpool Draw No Bet @ 1.76 with MarathonBet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.80 with Ladbrokes

@Papa Lazarou, @freestylerx, @allyhibs, @iBetting, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @kulikTS, @golakeh1, @Unnamed, @willie82, @dogmeister, @TheEdge, @JJG, @allthethings, @Mindfulness, @the bastardian, @teddybear3011, @Marek76, @salmonman, @Unnamed, @mij0sim, @harry_rag, @jazzman02, @Bobby Vegas, @Teodore, @Tiffy, @nenri981, and @sajtion. what do you guys think of this preview? Any bets you're going for yourself?

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17 hours ago, allyhibs said:

@Tiffy

Hearts are now 2.50 which if you held me down and waterboarded me I might admit to being a bit of value. You'll never get me tipping that lot though, so I'd say this, Hearts aren't as good as the table suggests, they'll lose their 100% record sooner or later. If Motherwell play like they did last time out against Rangers then it could be sooner. I am of course completely unbiased.

Livingston could be a shout, their horrendous artificial pitch gives them an undoubted advantage when they're at home, just like Kilmarnock when they're at home, but I'm not sure 1.91 has any value. Maybe one for an acca.

I won't be betting on either of these games.

Haha, thanks for that allyhibs. Just what I expected from you, lots of bitternesss towards your deadly rivals! Nice to get your thoughts though,  I've stuck them both in this week, so let's see how it goes. I am avoiding Prem & Championship games for a while. Think there may be better form in this section.

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6 minutes ago, Tiffy said:

 

Plymouth will turn it round sooner or later @StevieDay1983, on paper it looks fairly decent, but I'll avoid this one on the results. You could be right with the unders shout though.

Yeah, I do rate Adams as a manager. I was browsing their forum earlier and it seems like the fans are split. They are either dreading the potential horror show this season or just assuming that things will turn around. As I said, it's a dangerous game. I would usually avoid a game like this too but I wanted to take a risk this week.

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Coventry City v Barnsley

Coventry City: Dujon Sterling (5/0 d, doubtful), Jodi Jones (0/0 f), Max Biamou (4/0 f)

Barnsley: Brad Potts (6/2 m), Cauley Woodrow (0/0 f)(both doubtful), Zeki Fryers (0/0 d), Ryan Hedges (0/0 f)

 

Burton Albion v Sunderland

Burton Albion: David Templeton (7/1 f), Damien McCrory (2/0 d), Jake Buxton (5/0 d), John Brayford (5/0 d)(all doubtful), Brad Collins (2/0 2nd goalkeeper), Stephen Bywater (5/0 first goalkeeper)

Sunderland: Dylan McGeouch (4/0 m), Aiden McGeady (0/0 f)(both doubtful), Max Power (5/2 m, suspended), Duncan Watmore (0/0 m)

 

Newport County v Yeovil Town

Newport County: no absences

Yeovil Town: Tom James (4/0 d), Rhys Browne (0/0 m), Wes McDonald (4/0 f)(all doubtful), Stuart Nelson (0/0 g), James Bailey (0/0 m), Francois Zoko (2/0 f, captain)

 

Notts County v Stevenage FC

Notts County: Andy Kellett (5/1 d), Matt Tootle (3/0 d)(both doubtful), Dan Jones (5/0 d, suspended), Richard Duffy (5/1 d), Ben Hall (0/0 d)

Stevenage FC: Danny Newton (5/1 f), Kurtis Guthrie (6/0 f), Alex Revell (7/2 f)(all doubtful)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding League One

Barnsley scored in last 4 games in League One.
Coventry City allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 3 games in League One.
Barnsley allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 5 games in League One.
Fleetwood Town has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 home games in League One.
Accrington Stanley has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 games in League One.

You can find interesting 97 Football Betting Streaks for 15.09.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-15-09-2018-11271

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On 13/09/2018 at 9:50 PM, sajtion said:

i'm gonna suggests this acca on saturday. it has decent chance 

acca one

crystal palace

derby

man utd

sunderland

fleetwood

walsall

carlisle

mk dons

 

stake £20    pays £12.000

good luck 

 

acca two

hull city

middlesbrough

derby

lincoln

crystal palace

bournemouth vs leicester btts

bristol city vs sheff utd btts

bradford vs charlton btts

 

stake £20    pays £10.000

good luck

The beers will most certainly be on you my good chap! :loon 

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Walsall-Doncaster btts and over 2.5

Two offensive teams, hard to say who will win but it will be goals for sure...gl

Milton Keynes - hosts have everithing..good manager, more then enough money, lovely fans... I really expect home winn..gl

Swindon- over 2.5

Three were enough, it's time for goals ...gl

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Colchester vs Cambridge

The focus turns to League Two for this second preview of the weekend. Colchester welcome Cambridge to the Colchester Community Stadium for this 3pm kick-off on Saturday afternoon where the home side will be looking to continue their positive start to the season and the visitors will be looking to upset the odds.

Colchester manager John McGreal is now into his third full season with the U's and so far he's ensured that the club have remained consistent. The more ambitious fans will be demanding a promotion push this year after season upon season of mid-table mediocrity. Well, that's just what could happen with McGreal guiding his side to 5th in the table with 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss from their 7 league games.

It is a start to the season that has surprised a few. The club is just 4 points off the top of the table and 1 point off the automatic promotion places. The highlight has been the defensive record with just 5 goals conceded and three clean sheets kept during that period. The jury is still out regarding their season-long hopes because the highest placed side of their seven opponents so far are 12th placed Mansfield. Still, you can only beat what's in front of you.

Cambridge have been less immaculate in their seven games so far. Joe Dunne's team are sat in 19th place with just 2 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses from their games this season. The fact that the U's have failed to score in three of their seven matches in the league is a cause for concern.

Three defeats in their last four matches is also worrying. On the plus side, they did win their last away game with a 1-0 score-line against mid-table Stevenage. It just seems that this could be a long and trying season for Cambridge. Dunne remains a divisive figure with the fans. Some point to his win ratio of 42.9% during his 14 game stint as caretaker manager of Cambridge. His critics perhaps harshly pick out the performances so far this season and his time at Colchester when he only managed a win ratio of 28.4% over two seasons. He'll be hoping to prove his former employers wrong on Saturday but I don't think he'll manage to pull the win off.

Colchester to Win @ 2.05 with William Hill

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.91 with MarathonBet

 

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7 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Yeah, I do rate Adams as a manager. I was browsing their forum earlier and it seems like the fans are split. They are either dreading the potential horror show this season or just assuming that things will turn around. As I said, it's a dangerous game. I would usually avoid a game like this too but I wanted to take a risk this week.

Well he  who dares................generally loses!:ok

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It's a difficult round of fixtures this weekend to find value (who mentioned Hearts? Nah, never heard of them) but I'll post up where my money is going today.

Hibs v Kilmarnock

Hibs haven't exactly got off to a great start this season but when you look at the players that have been missing then you can understand why. The spine of the team has been absent and it's forced Neil Lennon to play players in unfamiliar positions and it's shown in the performances so far.

Centre half Darren MacGregor comes back from injury, we're always better at the back with him there. Australian international Mark Milligan has finally got his work visa and will step into the defensive mid position where we have been severely lacking since Marvin Bartleys' injury, this will allow Stevie Mallan to play further forward where he is far more effective, carries a real goal threat from the edge of the box. Star striker Florian Kamberi comes back from injury, his non stop style never gives the defenders any peace, fantastic at holding the ball up and bringing others into play, allows Martin Boyle to go back to right wing where he is far more effective. With these 3 players back, all of a sudden we look a very good side. There's a feeling round Easter Road way that the season starts now and at odds against the home win looks a good thing to me.

Hibs @ 2.05.

Edinburgh City v Annan Athletic.

I mentioned at the start of the season that Edinburgh were much improved on last year and they've certainly got off to a good start, sitting top of the league. Last weeks win at Peterhead shows they can beat anyone in this league, if they carry that form into todays game, chances are they'll bag the 3 points.

Edinburgh City @ 2.05.

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On 13/09/2018 at 9:50 PM, sajtion said:

i'm gonna suggests this acca on saturday. it has decent chance 

acca one

crystal palace

derby

man utd

sunderland

fleetwood

walsall

carlisle

mk dons

 

stake £20    pays £12.000

good luck 

 

acca two

hull city

middlesbrough

derby

lincoln

crystal palace

bournemouth vs leicester btts

bristol city vs sheff utd btts

bradford vs charlton btts

 

stake £20    pays £10.000

good luck

ffs seriously wtf

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • 1.30 Ling  Makambe @ 6/1 coral 
    • Leicester vs Crystal Palace: Palace +1 Roy Hodgson saved Palace from the dead last season & has led them to a more stable position in the table in his first full season in charge and the odds for Palace to be relegated are now 30/1. Last season was not the only one when Hodgson saved a team from relegation coming midseason as he also did that in 10/11 with West Brom. The following season West Brom under Hodgson finished 10th with 13 wins/8 draws/17 losses and 7w/5d/7losses from the away games. Palace were also saved from relegation by Alan Pardew coming midseason in 14/15. The following season Crystal Palace finished 15th with 11 wins/9 draws/18 losses and 5w/6d/8losses from the away games.  Anyway, I went with the average of those 2 seasons and that suggests 2 wins, 3.5 draws and 0.5 losses from remaining 6 away Palace games (5w/2.5d/4.5 losses overall in last 12 matches).  Leicester also lost 3 games, drew 2 times and won just once vs the next 3 teams in the table last season(including 2 losses vs Palace). This season the Foxes have lost once and drew 2 times vs the next 3 teams in the table(including a loss vs Palace).
    • I also believe Barcelona is worth backing vs Seville especially as the Andalusian team has terrible form lately: 1 win & 3 losses from last 5(16th worst form) and 2 wins & 4 losses in last 10(14th worst form). Seville has only lost 1 game at home this season vs 3 last year and I think it is time Seville lose at home again. Barca have not impressed lately but I reckon the players will step up their game vs one of the big teams. Question for me is which team from Alaves and Getafe will take advantage from a potential Seville slip-up that opens the door for the 4th Champions League place? I reckon Getafe are more likely to win vs Rayo and go in fourth place. Odds are shortening, which is always a good sign, plus Rayo Vallecano's form has turned bad again - losing last 3 La Liga games after they won 4 and drew once. Rayo has won once vs Alaves, drew twice vs Real Sociedad and lost all other 5 matches vs teams fighting for that last Champions league spot(Seville, Getafe, Alaves, Sociedad, Betis and Valencia - teams from 9th to 4th all within 5 points). Meanwhile, Getafe won 5 out of 6 games vs bottom 3 last season. They have won only 3 and drew 4 times vs bottom 6 this year(more tight relegation battle that is why 6 teams), including an away 2:1 win vs Rayo. It is worth noting that only 2 of those games were at home for Getafe - a 3:1 win vs Celta and goalless draw vs Real Valladolid.
    • 10 unit bet Laslo Djere to beat Aljaz Bedene @ odds 2.10 with Pinnacle We have detailed analysis for this available for free on the internet if you want to go digging for it , but I prefer not to advertise that service in here in repsect for the forum, and Czech Punter's guidelines. 
    • Saturday 23/02/2019 Kempton 02:25 SONG FOR SOMEONE f/c. 8/1 stake = 5 pts EACH WAY   Fairyhouse 03:25 CHOSEN HOUR f/c. 3/1 stake = 10 pts WIN  
    • Wolverhampton 20.00  RAPID RISE  10/1 Bet365
    • :Torino vs Atalanta: Draw Since 16/17 Torino has averaged roughly 15 draws per season becoming the leader in Serie A for tight games without a winner with 41 draws in 101 games(11 out of 24 games this season) They have also averaged approximately 6 draws at home compared to 1 tie in 18/19 and that makes me think the Turin team will have plenty more draws at home this season. I have compared Atalanta vs Torino and Fiorentina since 16/17 cuz both teams finished each season as neighbours in the table. What stands out are 7 draws out of 10 games for Atalanta(2 wins vs Torino and 1 loss vs Fiorentina). Head to head stats show 18 draws in Turin, 25 losses for Atalanta and only 6 away wins. Frosinone vs Roma: Roma-1 Frosinone has lost 9 out of 10 games vs the top 7 teams in Serie A with a goal difference of 0:27. They had one goalless draw vs Milan when Milan with Higuain were failing to score in successive games. Frosinone are 5 points away from survival and are probably going back to Serie B next season. Roma are 3 wins on the bounce in all competitions and they won at home vs Frosinone 4:0. Roma has won all of their Serie A games vs Frosinone with a winning margin of more than 1 goal and 3 out of their 4 Serie A away wins this season were with difference +1.
    • Result Catterick 01:55 CAP DU NORD…..Non-Runner Chelmsford 07:45 LION HEARTED…..Abandoned - Power Cut Todays Profit =  + 0.00 pts Current Years Profit 2019 =  + 87.03 pts.   (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.) (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) Bank = + 2588.41 pts. Profit = + 2488.41 pts Current Winning Run =  5
    • Newcastle, 17:05, Dimple, 7/4 BV
    • More effective than ever seen in the season is Tottenham, who is still a key title contender. He is currently playing at Burnley's headquarters and if he succeeds in winning, he will temporarily reduce his distance from the top to the two. He may not let this opportunity go to waste
      BURNLEY FC vs TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR @@ TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR, odds 1.70
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