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Tennis Tips - September 24 - September 30

CzechPunter
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CzechPunter

CzechPunter

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Kateryna Kozlova to beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova at 1.78 with Pinnacle

Still fancy her.

Fernando Verdasco (vs. Daniel) + Alex De Minaur (vs. McDonald) at 1.80 with Bet365

I was a bit wary of both at the start of the tournament, but their first round performances were so convincing that I'm going to back them in a double. Daniel had more than enough problems against Ito and McDonald was lucky against Lacko, there shouldn't be any such free gifts here against stronger opposition.

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darko08

darko08

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Posted (edited)

David Goffin to beat Andy Murray at 1.73 with William Hill

Going against Murray. Yesterday he suffered a lot against an unknown challenger player. I saw Murray altered, protesting a lot, exhausted, serving badly and losing many points in rallies against Zhizhen Zhang (1.91 m). Zhang retired in the third set when Murray broke him (4-2) so probably he had some kind of injury and that reflects how bad was playing Murray. I saw Murray very tired during the match an recently he has said that in 2019 he will play less tournaments so that confirms to me that he's not well physically and he's feeling tired. The only thing that i don't like is that Goffin has not played a match since the US Open. Anyway, he did a good tournament on there where finally was defeat in the 4th round against a big Cilic. I don't care about the h2h cause we have an exceptional situation this time.

I have to edit because a made a mistake. Goffin played 2 matches in the Laver Cup (single match against Schwartzman and another match in the doubles). This fact give me more confidence on this bet.

Edited by darko08
Mistake
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four-leaf

four-leaf

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Posted (edited)

Parlay at 11.96 with Pinnacle 

David Goffin to beat Andy Murray at 1.63

David should honestly have way too mutch for Andy right now.

Mikael Torpegaard (-2.0) to beat Marcelo Arevalo at 1.96

Mikael has played brilliant tennis lately and should just be too strong for Marcelo who doesn't seem to have the form required to beat the dane here.

Fernando Verdasco (-1.5 sets) to beat Taro Daniel at 1.90

Fernando is too strong for Taro and that's a fact and Taro didn't look exactly inspiring in his last match.

Alex De Minaur (-1.5 sets) to beat Mackenzie Mcdonald at 1.95

Alex should just be way too hot for Mackie to handle here.

Edited by four-leaf
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Uriel18

Uriel18

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On 9/26/2018 at 9:54 AM, Uriel18 said:

Taro Daniel vs Fernando Verdasco (under 22 games @ 1.813, Pinnacle)

Match from ATP Shenzhen Open - R16. Taro Daniel is #74 and Fernando Verdasco #28 in the ATP ranking. Daniel comes from a difficult 3-sets match against Tatsuma Ito, while Verdasco comes from a short match against Jason Jung, with only 5 games against. Verdasco's older than Daniel, but he's in good form. I think in this match the experience will stand out and we won't have many games.

damn 1st set!!! :@

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darko08

darko08

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Definitely i will take a rest from posting and I will just follow your predictions for a few days because that match of Murray shocked me. Yesterday he played the worst match that I ever seen from him and today he won against Goffin in straight sets. I got to say that Goffin collaborated in that and if he had played from the start like he did when he won 4 consecutive games in the second set he probably would won. Anyway, that Murray was not the same Murray from yesterday of course. I also watched Sabalenka against Cibulkova and i got to say that she's absolutely in form, tomorrow he will play against Barty who did finals here the last year, lets see what happens in there. I will expect your predictions. Good luck!

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Uriel18

Uriel18

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So, QF at Shenzhen and Albert Ramos-Vinolas is playing against Pierre-Hugues Herbert. Ramos-Vinolas’ last match went through 3 sets; he did well as he had 2 tiebreaks to settle the victory, but before this he hadn’t won a match since July, his biggest problem is his serve. On the other side, Herbert had a great previous win, he served really well, he's done well in many tournaments and probably won’t be that difficult for him to win. They met this year in Canada and the French won. I think here will happen the same.

-2.00 (AH) Pierre-Hugues Herbert @ 1.729 Pinnacle

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Torque

Torque

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, darko08 said:

Definitely i will take a rest from posting and I will just follow your predictions for a few days because that match of Murray shocked me. Yesterday he played the worst match that I ever seen from him and today he won against Goffin in straight sets. I got to say that Goffin collaborated in that and if he had played from the start like he did when he won 4 consecutive games in the second set he probably would won. Anyway, that Murray was not the same Murray from yesterday of course. I also watched Sabalenka against Cibulkova and i got to say that she's absolutely in form, tomorrow he will play against Barty who did finals here the last year, lets see what happens in there. I will expect your predictions. Good luck!

 

Happens all the time I'm afraid - that's tennis. If you think the contrast between Murray in the first round and Murray in the second round here was stark, it's nothing compared to Federer at the US Open - serene progress to the round of 16 followed by the worst display I've ever seen from him in defeat against Millman. A player some consider to be the greatest of all time produced these numbers - about 40% first serve percentage, about 10 double faults and about 70 unforced errors. I defy anyone to say they saw that coming.

Edited by Torque
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darko08

darko08

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29 minutes ago, Uriel18 said:

totally agree with you @darko08 thats why I want to know this group's opinion on Murray's next match against Verdasco. Murray surprised me and Verdasco disappointed me. Dont know what to expect! :\

Hi Uriel18! Verdasco beat Murray “easily” in the US Open 3-1 (7-5, 2-6, 6-4, 6-4) and that was only 1 month ago. I remember that a lot of people did bet for Verdasco in that match because everybody saw there the perfect opportunity for Verdasco to beat Murray (the h2h before that match was 13-1). Now I don’t have the same feelings for this match because like you have said, today Verdasco has played worse than he did in the first round and Murray better than he did. The only thing I know Is that there is no value in betting for Murray because 1.53 (bet365) is ridiculous considering that he’s still so far away from his best form.

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four-leaf

four-leaf

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Posted

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Cameron Norrie at 2.12 with Pinnacle

A match where the odds are set by ranking. Yoshi met Cam once and it was this season in Houston and he won easily in two sets back then and that could happen again here. Yoshi has played well coming into this match and why would he not continue doing that is what I wonder. The odds are as I said by the looks of it just set by ranking this time so the value is clearly on Yoshi.

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Uriel18

Uriel18

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Posted
17 hours ago, darko08 said:

Hi Uriel18! Verdasco beat Murray “easily” in the US Open 3-1 (7-5, 2-6, 6-4, 6-4) and that was only 1 month ago. I remember that a lot of people did bet for Verdasco in that match because everybody saw there the perfect opportunity for Verdasco to beat Murray (the h2h before that match was 13-1). Now I don’t have the same feelings for this match because like you have said, today Verdasco has played worse than he did in the first round and Murray better than he did. The only thing I know Is that there is no value in betting for Murray because 1.53 (bet365) is ridiculous considering that he’s still so far away from his best form.

 

You're right. But odds for over/under are not bad. I'm thinking on that.

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