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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - September 17 - September 23

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Mihail Youzhny to beat Mirza Basic at 1.91 with Ladbrokes

Donna Vekic to beat Sloane Stephens at 3.00 with Ladbrokes

Belinda Bencic to beat Garbine Muguruza at 3.00 with Paddy Power

Alexandra Krunic (-3.5) to beat Viktorija Golubic at 1.90 with Bet365

Daria Gavrilova (-3.5) to beat Kristyna Pliskova at 1.98 with Pinnacle

Going for quite a few bets in the first round, let's see what happens. Mirza Basic was as dreadful as expected against Nishioka, so I'm going to go against him once again. I also didn't like Pliskova and Golubic last week, while Krunic and Gavrilova had many good results in Asia in the past and have the form books to win these matches as well. And now the underdogs - Sloane Stephens had a truly dreadful Asian run after a good US Open and I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar again with her not being too interested after a good season. Vekic isn't a bad player by any stretch of imagination and she's beaten Sloane before. Meanwhile, Muguruza has been rather poor in recent times, her performance against Muchova in the US Open was just lifeless, for example, while Bencic is keen on playing after yet another injury break. At 3.00, I'm willing to give both Vekic and Bencic a shot.

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Vekic delivered, good.

Alexandra Krunic to beat Christina McHale at 1.74 with Unibet

Going with Krunic again for nearly the same reasons as when I backed her against Goljubic. McHale has been quite poor all year long, while Krunic has now broken the bad streak and has some truly competitive form + good memories from previous Asian tours.

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My pick is from ATP Metz, R1. Peter Gojowczyk is #45 and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is #71. Gojowczyk didn’t have good results during the clay season due to some physical issues. But, he’s better now and this tournament is on hard indoor, which is his best surface. He won here last year, so he'll try to repeat it. Tsonga had a serious injury in Feb and is really far from playing the way he used to, it will be hard for him to face a more intense player.

Gojowczyk to win @ 1.740 with Pinnacle.

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Peter Gojowczyk (-1.5 sets) to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 2.88 with Paddypower

Peter should be able to take this in straight sets. Jo has been gone for too long and therefore I think he will struggle with his shots in the long run. He might hold his serve for a tie-break but in the end I don't even think this match will be interesting.

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Mikael Torpegaard vs JJ Wolf

Torpegaard plays good in Columbus Challenger cause it's a court he knows well. He had a good match against Maverick Banes with a solid serve. Jeffrey John Wolf is also familiar with conditions here and he didn’t offer a break point in his match against Choinski. We can expect a match with players focusing on a good serve with possibility of tie break, so I think overs are the best choice here.

Over 21.5 games @ 1.719, Pinnacle

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Mandy Minella to beat Priscilla Hon at 1.73 with William Hill

I understand why some might not exactly fancy Minella in this particular spot, but the odds look good enough to me given how I don't rate Hon at all. She's had plenty of chances to move to the next level, but she's missed them all and I don't see how this is supposed to be any different. Minella hasn't lost many matches against opponents this beatable in this season and this should be a win much more often than not imo.

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Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.61 with Unibet

Basilashvili a bit underrated once again I feel. The guy is seriously good, had a great match in the first round, and the only things that speak for Humbert are his youth and home conditions. He's got some serious talent, alright, but Nikoloz should be 1.40 here imo.

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Donna Vekic to beat Caroline Garcia at 2.22 with Pinnacle

These odds are only set by ranking. Donna is playing good enough to win this match while Caroline hasn't played good tennis this hole season. Caroline may be ranked no.4 but has no ytd titles and has only passed the quarterfinals in two tournaments on clay so far. I think Donna is playing to good for Caroline now. Carolines ranking will drop if she can't defend her titles in Wuhan and Beijing and I doubt she can do that.

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Roberto Carballes Baena/Stefano Napolitano over 22.5 games at 2.05 with Pinnacle

All three quarterfinal matches in Biella has gone under 21 games but this one has the looks of a long match. If Stefano can utilize his serve well enough he will hang on RCB long enough for the total games to go over 22. It's even a possibility this might be a 3 set match.

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

As Mr. Nadal would say: "Good week, no?".

I don't understand! What do you mean? Is this a good week for you? I've been wrong once so far out of 3 of my bets posted this week but you've had a few bets correct. And you've only been wrong 2 times out of 8, that's good.

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Donna Vekic to beat Karolina Pliskova at 2.13 with Pinnacle or 2.10 with bet365

I keep on spinning with Donna here since this is just another match where the odds are set by ranking. She's better than Karolina so far this week and Karolinas season hasn't been the best either just like Caro Garcias season hasn't been the best. Donna can easily utilize her big serve and win many free points. Her game has really been hitting top gear this week and Karolinas hasn't done that this hole season and I don't think she's shown mutch promise this week either but Donna really has with 3 straight sets victories and I think there's more to come from Donna in Tokyo.

Edited by four-leaf

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10 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well that's what I was saying, a good week.

How come you left the Donna Vekic train after she beat Sloane Stephens? Don't you trust her to win matches and even reach the final which could easily become a reality?

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