Non-League Predictions > September 8th

[Darran]

Tuesday wasn't great with only Sutton winning and it was a losing night. The FA Cup means there are no Step 3 matches this weekend so the focus is on the National League's and I have 8 bets in the 3 divisions. It's a little more than I usually like, but there does seem some good bets and hopefully a profit to be had.

Barrow v Dagenham & Redbridge (National League)

I got Barrow wrong on Tuesday night and by all accounts they played well in the 2nd half and deserved to pick up at least a point. They have been performing well at home so far this season and Tim Flowers the Solihull manager admitted that Barrow were better than Solihull despite the fact they had beaten the home side 2-1. Dagenham may well have won their first game of the season on Tuesday night, but that did come against the worst side in the division in Braintree and this game is a much stiffer test for them. I think a shade of odds against (53/50) with Marathon is value about the home side and I would still be happy with the even money available with a few bookies as well.

Eastleigh v AFC Fylde (National League)

Eastleigh only managed 4 subs on Tuesday night against Maidenhead and one of those was the sub keeper such is their injury crisis at the moment. That is worrying at this stage of the season and they have managed just one win at home losing their other 4. Fylde were beaten by Salford on Tuesday night, their first loss of the season, and by all accounts Salford were really good. Fylde have drawn 3 of their 4 away games and that is a slight concern, but after a good performance at Ebbsfleet last week you would expect them to be more than up to winning this. Marathon's 38/25 is too big in my view and they should be nearer even money.

Harrogate v Havant & Waterlooville (National League)

I can't believe BT Sport chose to broadcast Havant v Aldershot on Wednesday night. Given there was no other football on they had a great chance to showcase the league and draw people in. Instead floating viewers were served up with a really poor game of football between two sides struggling for wins. Havant won 2-1, but they didn't deserve to win although Aldershot struggled to defend two set pieces and that was their downfall. Aldershot were the better side, but they were clearly lacking confidence in the final 3rd. Havant now travel to a Harrogate side who are top of the table after beating Gateshead on Tuesday night. They remain unbeaten as well and it is hard to see how Havant can beat them given what I saw on Wednesday night and the general form of the two sides. Evens is available with Skybet, Marathon and Betfred and I think it should really be nearer the 4/6 mark.

Ebbsfleet v Gateshead (National League live on BT Sport at 5.15pm)

Strangely Ebbsfleet's away form has been much better than their home form so far this term having won once and lost 3. They haven't had the easiest matches though and they have performed well in the games they have lost. It could be claimed that this is a tough game as Gateshead have started better than people were predicting before the season started, but after winning their first 3 games they have only one once in the following 6. That came last Saturday when beating mangerless Maidstone. They did push Harrogate close on Tuesday night with Harrogate scoring the winner late on, but they have been better at home and given I think Ebbsfleet's performances have been better than their points tally at home suggest, I think they can win the live game on Saturday. Marathon are 51/50 and I would have it around the 4/5 mark myself.

Dartford v Eastbourne (National League South)

I did not expect Eastbourne to be doing so well so far this season and it is a surprise for me to see them sitting in 3rd place in the table. Fair play to them though as the only game they have lost so far is against top of the table Woking so they deserve to be there on merit at this early stage. Key for them is the fact they have the 2nd best defence in the league having conceded just 6 times so far and 2 of those came in the 2-1 defeat to Woking. This probably won't be a game of many goals as they have only scored 9 times and Dartford have scored just 5 and conceded 9. The 7/2 on offer though with Bet365 and Marathon is huge on an away win. Dartford look a shadow of the side who nearly won the title last season and currently sit in 16th place 5 points behind their opponents on Saturday. I put Wealdstone up at a big price to beat them on their own patch a couple of weeks ago and they lost 3-0 that afternoon. Granted that is their only defeat at home so far, but how on earth can a team in 3rd after 8 games having lost just once be 7/2 against a team who are 5 points worst off and have only won 3 out of 8 games having lost 4 of them? 

Gloucester City v Truro (National League South)

Speaking of mean defences and teams who don't score many in Gloucester we have another one I am going to back. They have scored just 6 and conceded 8, but that doesn't tell the full story as they have only conceded once in their last 4 games. I was at the game against Dulwich a couple of weeks ago and I was really impressed with the way City defended and on loan keeper Matt Yates looks a keeper destined for better things and he is arguably the best keeper in the league at the moment. At the other end scoring goals has been an issue and three of their 4 wins have been 1-0 so far. They did score 2 against Hungerford last week, but since that game City have re-signed Harry Williams who scored 10 goals in 16 appearances for the club spread over the last 3 seasons. He should add plenty to the forward line and with a mean defence they will be hard to beat. Truro have got a new manager from Taunton and he obviously did a great job to get them promoted last season, but he will surely need longer than a few days to sort a team out who have yet to win so far this season. Marathon's 123/100 looks a huge price about a home win in my opinion.

Torquay v Chippenham (National League South)

Torquay's 8 matches so far this season have seen just 8 goals! They have conceded 3 and scored 5 and their performances so far have been pretty average. As I wrote last week when opposing Chippenham they look capable on their day of beating anyone in the league and then they duly went and beat Concord 4-1. They have a form sequence of LWLWLWLW so on that they should lose on Saturday, but sequence will end at some point and they could be just the sort of side to take a big price about in matches this season as like I say on their day they can beat anyone in the league. They arguably have a better side than Torquay and I just don't see how they can be as big as 14/5 with Marathon and Bet365.

Darlington v AFC Telford (National League North)

Just the one bet in this league on Saturday, but I am really keen on Telford. Darlington have not had a good start to the season having won just once and losing 4 times. They have quite a few injuries at the moment although to be fair to them they did keep Alfreton down to just the 1 goal last week. Telford have surprised me so far this season in the same way Eastbourne have and they have yet to be beaten. They sit in 2nd place in the table and are 12 points in front of their hosts on Saturday. Telford should be favourites for this so to be getting 177/100 about an away win looks cracking value to me.

Barrow 2pts @ 53/50 with Marathon

AFC Fylde 2pts @ 38/25 with Marathon

Harrogate 2pts @ Evs with Marathon/Betfred/Skybet

Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 51/50 with Marathon

Eastbourne 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365/Marathon

Gloucester City 2.5pts @ 123/100 with Marathon

Chippenham 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365/Marathon

AFC Telford 2.5pts @ 177/100 with Marathon

Edited September 6, 2018 by Darran

[cc135]

Salford City vs Maidstone (1) Asian HDP -1 2.01 1u

Salford played good against AFC Fylde in the midweek match, well worth the win. Maidstone, on the other hand were poor and should have lost more against Sutton. For this match, they will still be missing topscorer Tugott and sub attacker Quigley due to international call-up. I see no other result other than a Salford win, hopefully by two.

Braintree vs Wrexham (2) Asian HDP -0.5 1.86 1u

Braintree created quite abit of chances against Daggers, but their final 3rd let them down with their poor finishing. Wrexham's defence were well-marshalled against Halifax and i don't see Braintree creating the same number of chances against Wrexham, Wrexham win for me to keep up with the leading pack.

Chesterfield vs Dover (1) 1.81 1u

Dover were lucky to come away with a point vs Ebbsfleet, but in truth, it was two points lost for Ebbsfleet. Chesterfield kept up their losing streak with their loss against Boreham Wood, and it seems a distant memory for a team which won their opening three matches, and one of them was against Ebbsfleet away. Having read how Dover performed against Ebbsfleet in their last game, i am convinced this match will be the one to re-ignite their fast-fading promotion dreams.

[sammydubs]

My old man follows Torquay and been going to their games. He says although it’s not been pretty in patches the team they have is as good as they have had in a few seasons and they have some very tasty loanees from the Bristol clubs who are starting to find their feet after the initial shock of playing at this level!! 

 

[Darran]

52 minutes ago, sammydubs said:

My old man follows Torquay and been going to their games. He says although it’s not been pretty in patches the team they have is as good as they have had in a few seasons and they have some very tasty loanees from the Bristol clubs who are starting to find their feet after the initial shock of playing at this level!! 

 

Maybe they might start to improve then, but they have looked very average so far. Certainly think Chippenham offer value as they have played better.

Edited September 7, 2018 by Darran

[sammydubs]

2 hours ago, Darran said:

Maybe they might start to improve then, but they have looked very average so far. Certainly think Chippenham offer value as they have played better.

14/5 could be a big price I must admit. That said, I’d be concerned with Chippenhams away form bar the Truro result. I’ll probably swerve. 

Have you seen Torquay United play this season? 

Who is your team you watch? 

My team Merstham is in FA Cup action tomorrow. Seen them a lot this season, its the same old, very inconsistent, so I can’t give much insight yet! I may have a few opinions on teams they play in coming weeks though.  

Edited September 7, 2018 by sammydubs

[Darran]

No not seen Torquay in the flesh. I'm a Gloucester fan.

[sammydubs]

I heard about the Gloucester game and the sad scenes some idiot younger Torquay fans caused.

The report from the game from my father and his friends was that 1st half Torquay camped themselves in Gloucester half but were pretty poor at creating chances. 

2nd half similar but then Gloucester did have a few decent chances they didn’t take. 

I’ve just heard TQ have 2 centre backs out tomorrow so may not be as steady at the back but as I said before the reports are that the two BCFC loanees are a class above this league. 

Let’s see how it goes! 

[Darran]

Gloucester are really strong defensively at the moment as the fact they have only conceded once in their last 4 games shows. Actually wouldn't surprise me if Chippenham finished above Torquay in the table this season as I don't think Torquay will get near the play-offs. Obviously a long way to go and like you say they might improve, but they need to.

[sammydubs]

So if you haven’t seen Torquay United play in the flesh then how do you form your opinions on how they have played? Reports? If so which paper / sites do you tend to read? 

Not querying your methods, just generally very interested!

Cheers 

Edited September 7, 2018 by sammydubs

[Darran]

52 minutes ago, sammydubs said:

So if you haven’t seen Torquay United play in the flesh then how do you form your opinions on how they have played? Reports? If so which paper / sites do you tend to read? 

Not querying your methods, just generally very interested!

Cheers 

Read local paper and NLP reports plus watch highlights. If I only backed teams I had seen in the flesh then I wouldn't have very many bets!

[sammydubs]

Gloucester to keep a clean sheet - 2/1 tempt you at all? 

[mijOsim]

Mates what about Salford to score 2+, 1.70 in my local? This league is not close to me but on first sight this looks great bet to me. Dont know can Maidstone stop them from scoring ?

[Darran]

5 hours ago, sammydubs said:

Gloucester to keep a clean sheet - 2/1 tempt you at all? 

Wouldn’t put people off that as a fair bet on recent form.

[Darran]

1 hour ago, mijOsim said:

Mates what about Salford to score 2+, 1.70 in my local? This league is not close to me but on first sight this looks great bet to me. Dont know can Maidstone stop them from scoring ?

I nearly put them up on the -1 handicap. Hard to see how they don’t win easily if they repeat Tuesday night.

[mijOsim]

1 hour ago, Darran said:

I nearly put them up on the -1 handicap. Hard to see how they don’t win easily if they repeat Tuesday night.

Took them to score over 1.5... Hope for the best.

[mijOsim]

3 hours ago, mijOsim said:

Took them to score over 1.5... Hope for the best.

Fuuu.kk... Many missed chances by Salford costed me a lot :-/

[Kenton Schweppes]

Well @Darran you've had a shocker today, uncharacteristically so. Just two winners. Ebbsfleet concede a comedy own goal too.

Must say in the last two rounds of National League games there has been a right dearth of goals about.

Edited September 8, 2018 by Kenton Schweppes

[Darran]

Ebbsfleet were crap although yeah it was a comical og for the goal. Eastbourne not seeing the game out was costly as an extra 4.5pts would have been nice!