Im Lost

[real55555]

2 hours ago, footysystems said:

Back testing is overrated many years in this game and been there done it. I have seen systems flying on the back test and go live bomb. With live betting and doing a little home work with averages the team running above average there is likely to be a goal. This way rather than a team hitting a back tested filter it's hitting a true live tested filter. Personally I don't back under a certain price. This is how the likes of statslizard work IMVHO they just use it on bigger scales with computer program. As for sitting in front of the PC all say certainly not what I do i check maybe every 10 mins as people use there mobile and check it every 10 mins well busy people do.

In that case you'd most likely to come across this instance for example you think home team will score over 1.5 goals and those are Arsenal, Barcelona, and Juventus that fits your criteria/requirements, and say Arsenal and Barcelona scored in the first 5 mins so you missed the boat so you skipped that 2 matches, so around the 10th minute mark you bet on Juventus to score over 1.5 goals obviously with better odds than prematch odds. For the Barcelona and Arsenal match, both teams eventually scored 2 goals by full time, while Juventus only managed to score 1 goal each, and you ended up in a losing position.

This is what i do not like about live betting, it tends to leave you going into losing bets but of course compensated with better odds, not to mention the time factor where you have to be available to check the odds when it goes live because different matches kick off at different times. Therefore I'd much prefer prematch bets where I can finish everything and just do my things and just check the results afterwards.

Different bettors different approaches, as long as it gives positive returns I don't think anyone will reject the method.

[robstars7]

Another woeful week. With only one day being successful. 

It just seems that no ones win rate will be good enough to be profitable at football betting no matter what the odds are.

Im focussing on home teams and o 2.5. My system has changed several times due to thinking "ahhh i didnt consider this and thats why I didnt win". 

I usually focus on individual stats but Im now thinking to look at league table positions more (as these are based on results) and take bookmakers odds as a ranking indication ( as these two are based on form and results) 

I will be paper trading until friday using an adjusted system. Then on Friday I will go again. Refusing to give  up....but close to crying lol

Please post how your weekend went and what markets you focused on ......

 

[footysystems]

Friday was a very bad day, not so sure why ?? quite a few 0-0 draws which is never good when your chasing a goal. Saturday got back the loss from Friday.

Sunday was a whole different day, few early losses but as the afternoon played out began a nice winning streak ended the day +4.5 points.

All using my inplay software.  

 

[robstars7]

On 9/24/2018 at 11:01 AM, footysystems said:

Friday was a very bad day, not so sure why ?? quite a few 0-0 draws which is never good when your chasing a goal. Saturday got back the loss from Friday.

Sunday was a whole different day, few early losses but as the afternoon played out began a nice winning streak ended the day +4.5 points.

All using my inplay software.  

 

Nice, well played. What markets were you betting on?

 

[artichoke]

On 18/9/2018 at 5:00 AM, real55555 said:

Partly agree and disagree to your comments but you've backed it up with your reasoning. This is why statistical betting should always go with the price of the odds. Statistical betting is something like a principle that keep yourself from irrational bets and depleting your betting bank when you are in a bad run. Every bettors are bound to face a very bad losing run regardless of how good they are. The doubts that starts to appear when you are in a bad losing run is capable of causing you to give up the way you do your 'homework' before placing your bet. But if you have numbers say over a very big number of games, you will still keep to the same betting method because you know you've done enough homework that shows this method gives a long term profit (although not guaranteed, but so far it helps me from irrational betting) 

Back to the price of odds, this is where you take advantage of the number crunching and information that the bookies have. If your 'formula' shows that Manchester United have a 70% chance of winning against Leicester, and if the bookies odds price the win at 1.60 only, what will you do? If they price it at 2.00, what will you do? Does this mean the bookies' odds are more accurate or does this reflect something that your formula doesn't show up? Will this be the trend? This is up to you to interpret but I must say odds should always play a big part in any statistical betting. 

I can see your point about numbers being a safety net. About getting value out of a model, what i meant was that i find it hard to believe that an amateur could come up with something that beat the bookies in the long run. I mean, there is hundreds (thousands?) of mathy/comp sci people working for them and refining their model, so from my point of view (i'm a student and betting is certainly not my first interest) it's not worth the time and effort to try to beat them on their own ground. 
Though i guess it's possible if you are really serious about this, but if you manage to win on numbers alone, you'll probably get a steadier income working for the bookies. 

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And I agree with Liero, I'd say even you manage to make a profit in 500 games based on your knowledge of the league, teams, tactics, etc, how confident are you in making the next 500 bets and confident of making a profit? What parameters or criteria do you use in 'knowledge betting'? 

 

The criteria i use are mostly not quantifiable which makes this method difficult. It mostly comes down to just watching the games - pinpointing strengths and weaknesses and finding patterns in the way they play - and looking at the team past record in certain games (figuring whether or not they are consistent over games with different stakes etc.). Then the human stuff like how the players and coach are getting along etc. 

E.g. in the WC a lot of people were certain about Brazil beating Belgium, personally i left this game alone because you could see from the start that Brazil 1) had trouble with finishing 2) had not a good team cohesion (wingers sometimes ignored in critical part of the play, midfield link-up wasn't solid, forwards not tracking back, etc.) 3) was being slowed down by Neymar individualism on the offensive side, which furthermore indicate that the coach wasn't doing his job at taming the egos. 

All of these reasons - except 1) - are unquantifiable, you can only see them if you watch the game carefully, but they are of critical importance. Obviously this method only comes down to your football analysis skills in the end, so whether or not it's rigorous depends on the punter. 

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Apologies if you feel I doubted your views but please enlighten us if you've had success for long periods of betting, after all we are here for a healthy discussion. 

No problem, gotta be honest : i'm a newbe with a very small record (albeit i won a lot more than i thought i would), so i can't really say that i've put my betting philosophy to practice yet... But then i'm not sure it's ever going to be the case since i don't really have the time to watch games every weeks. I was reluctant at first in expressing my thoughts because i didn't wanted to be like "Folks i've made 30 successful bets, and here is how you should do it...", but from a logical point of view i think these points are mostly correct and good to keep in mind. 

Cheers