Flat Kelly staking

[skylark2009]

#18. 6.45 Kempton - Stealth Fighter @ 10/11 - Flat Kelly stake of 22.3pts (Assessed chance = 63%)

Stealth Fighter - beat a 76 rated Bertog last time by 3/4 length, could improve for that run here. A provisional rating of 78 for that run means improvement required against Kings Highway, whom he has to give weight to.

[skylark2009]

#19. 2.40 Haydock - Cap Francais to place (3 places) @ 5/6 Skybet - 16.39pts (assessed chance = 62%)

A bad case of placeitis with my picks so far, so a place only bet here. Cap Francais has had 2 runs, resulting in a 2nd and a 1st (lto).Could be capable of placing here given his experience to date.  Sire is Frankel,  whose offspring have been peforming creditably over the last couple of years. Danger looks to be Drogon, a front runner with credible claims here given his win at the course. Assessed chance of Cap Francais placing is 62% against place odds of 5/6 for a Falt Kelly stake of 16.39pts.

[skylark2009]

#20. 5.05 Naas - Mount Everest @ 11/10 SkyBet - Flat Kelly stake of 9.32pts (assessed chance of 52.5%)

Won last time beating Sovereign (who won next time). Was beaten by Guaranteed when both were on their racecourse debuts. I've given Mount Everest a provisory rating of 108 for his win last time (beat a 96 rated horse by over 6l's), which if holding true may be enough for this.

• Last 10 years - 6 unrated horses from 32 such won this race.
• last 10 years - rated winners were rated 96, 108,109 and 114.
• A O'Brien has won this 8 times from 25 runners in the last ten years (last seven years on the bounce).

[skylark2009]

Tomorrow's last time out winners -

 

Two potential bets (one win, one place).

I'll place the win bet on now, as I think Hard Taskmaster will shorten closer to the off (currently 1/1 to be had). No place betting odds available from Skybet/Paddy Power yet (except Betfair), so I'll wait til they open their place markets tomorrow for the 2nd potential bet.

#21. 8.45 Wolverhampton - Hard Taskmaster @ 1/1 - Flat Kelly stake of 19.10pts (assessed chance of 59.55%)

Hard Taskmaster is in fine form recently and may be capable of winning for a 4th time on the bounce. The handicapper may simply not have the measure of him yet. Looks a reasonably competitive race and any could set the pace here, as they all seem to race prominently (which may benefit Hard Taskmaster's running style.

[skylark2009]

2nd bet for today, a place only bet on Fox Power (3 places) with SkyBet @ 4/9.

Fox Power won very well last time over course/distance under the same jockey. This race is a bit more competitive today, but Fox Power could well sneak into the places here now handicapping. I rate this as a 78% chance for a place, which will be the biggest single stake for thos thread when Kelly staking is applied.

The two bets - Fox Power and Hard Taskmaster will appear in the results list (when I update them), in the racetime order and not how I posted them earlier.

 

#21. 7.15 Wolverhampton - Fox Power @ 4/9 SkyBet (three places) - Flat Kelly stake of 28.50pts (assessed chance - 78%)

#22. 8.45 Wolverhampton - Hard Taskmaster @ 1/1 Paddy Power - Flat Kelly stake of 19.10pts (assessed chance - 59.55%)

[skylark2009]

Two place only bets today, Turgenev and Limato (three places each).

#23. 2.40 Newmarket - Turgenev to place (three places) @ 4/11 Paddy Power - Flat Kelly stake = 25.01pts (assessed chance 80%)

#24. 3.00 Ascot - Limato to place (three places) @ 1/2 Paddy Power - Flat Kelly stake = 21.99pts (assessed chance 74%)

 

Turgenev won in good style at Newcastle last time and has to concede 6lb's here to his rivals today (hence the place only bet here). If using the same running style as last time, he could be thereabouts again today.  A little value here too for the win only side, but decided to play safe with place only.

Limato had previously been successful when winning for this thread (bet #6). Another place only bet here as Limato looks to have more to do here. Laugh A Minute looks an interesting contender here, looking the most likely to upset Limato as a win bet.

[skylark2009]

Bet #24. Limato is a non runner.

 

Results to date -

 

After 23 bets, the flat Kelly bank stands at 99.32pts compared to 80.65pts for the full Kelly.

In terms of recovery, flat Kelly stakes will recover more quickly due not being linked to the size of the bank, but if still experiencing losing runs could well bust the bank. While the full Kelly stakes on a diminishing banksize, will reduce the stakes drastically and not bust the bank overall, but will take much longer to recover those losses.

 

 

[skylark2009]

Last time out winners running at Longchamp (Arc day) -

 

 

 

[skylark2009]

#24. 1.20 Longchamp - Rocques to place (3 places) @ 4/9 Skybet - Flat kelly stake of 18.75pts (assessed chance of 75%).

Rocques hasn't done a thing wrong in her three races and looks the one to beat here. C Appleby has won this race the last two years and sends Ceratonia (previously beaten by Roques) nd Matematica looks an improver. So  a place bet here due to the competiveness of this race.

[skylark2009]

#25. 1.55 Longchamp - Anodor to win @ 4/5 Skybet - Flat Kelly stake 16.74pts (Assessed chance of 63%)

Difficult to see passed Anodor here, Two races with two wins, his penultimate (first) race has seen the 2nd (Persian King) win his next two races. A front runner who has a strong finishing turn of foot at the end of his two races. Has previously beaten Shaman. Boitron looks likely to improve, but his last race hasn't been franked by his rivals yet. Royal Marine won his last race (claas 3) and the 2nd (Turgenev) won his next two races  (class 5 and 4).

[skylark2009]

#26. 3.05 Longchamp - Enable to place (3 places) @ 2/9 Paddy Power - Flat Kelly stake of 12.00pts (assessed chance 84%)

I can't make a solid case for a win bet here, theres no real value at the price. The group Enable falls into that I use to form the percentage chances, has a good SR but doesn't run profitably to level stakes. However the places do (even at 2/9) and so a place only bet here.

Enable endeavours to become the third horse in the last 50 years to win back to back Arc's. Her setback earlier this year hasn't done her any favours though, but shows she still retains her best when winning last time by 3½l's. Looks a very competitive renewal. Sea Of Class has a 3yo fillies allowance (an advantage Enable had last year) and looked very classy when winning the Irish Oaks and looks a real challenger here to Enable. Waldgeist and Kew Gardens should also be thereabouts given their form.

[skylark2009]

#27. 6.15 Newcastle - Meringue @ 1/1 Paddy Power - Flat Kelly stake of 27.5pts (assessed chance of 63.75%)

Meringue comes up again as a bet (won for this thread - bet #1.). Falls into a different Baysian grouping on my spreadsheet this time (group 5671) which has produced subset of 80 potential bets resulting in 51 winners (63.75%) and 14 2nds (81.25% to place)  given Meringues currently available price.

LTO winners @ Newcastle

 

Meringue has got two races under her belt from two. She won both her races dedcisively by 2l's and 3¼l's. She's giving a whopping 14lb's to her nearest rival today, which probably means she has to run to a rating of 85+ to win here. She will likely make most here given her running style and seems to have a decent draw. Looks very progressive given her race to date.

 

Addendum for thread - (Flat Kelly bank contingency of 200pts)

The actual starting bank of 100pts for this thread is way to small to take into account losing runs, so I'll top the bank up by a further 100pts (x 2) if the banks drops below zero (losing runs or stake size too big).

[skylark2009]

#28 Newcastle 5.45 - Pure Shores @ 6/4 SkyBet - Flat Kelly stake of 24.45pts (assessed chance of 54.67%)

 

 

Quite a high assessed chance with this compared to the available odds (6/4), so could be over assessed here. The grouping (7166) produced a sample size of 75 runners with 41 winners given the available odds.

Pure Shores has won her last two races (turf), with a rating of 75. Run 5 times on an AW surface, winning once and placing twice. Rated 74 on the AW and weight reduced further by a 5lb claimer. Had Zamandas behind previously and should confim that form again.She has some excellent recent form, but does need to transfer that form to the AW.

[skylark2009]

100pts extra added to the Flat Kelly bank (stake for bet#29 would cause bank to dip below 0pts). I'll top bank up one more time by another 100pts if the stake or losses cause the bank to dip below 0pts again.

#29. 7.45 Newcastle - Ideological @ 11/8 Bet365 - Flat Kelly stake of 24.89pts (assessed chance of  56.52%)

Ideological won with a liitle to spare on her debut and could well progress. I've given a provisory rating of 80 for that run, which would put her 1lb ahead of officially rated Archies Lad (77) given the weights. Mulhima, 3rd in Ideological's race won next time.

Ideological and Trolius both fall into the same grouping on my spreadsheet, the current pricing (around 4/1) Trolius and (around 11/8) Ideological means Ideological is the bet.

 

 

 

 

[skylark2009]

Results to date -

 

[skylark2009]

#30. 3.40 Nottingham - Just Wait @ 6/5 Paddy Power - Flat Kelly stake of 8.33pts (assessed chance of 50%)

Just Wait beat an 80 rated Tolkyn last time. Ran a little green on her debut, but showed improvement next time to win, her winning experience may be enough here in this moderate race. None of her rivals from last time time that have run since franked the form though. Best price available at time of posting is 5/4 (888Sport).

 

Last time out winners for 31/10/18

 

[skylark2009]

#31. 5.30 Kempton - Salute The Soldier @ 1/1 Paddy Power - Flat Kelly stake of 45.44pts (assessed chance of 72.72%)

Today's/tomorrow's last time out winners -

 

Salute The Soldier won well last time with a strong run in the final furlong after being hindered mid race. Could be just ahead of the handicapper here based on that run.

Falls into group 8159, which when further filtered produced a (very small) subset of 11 runners for an SR of 72.72%.
This is the riskiest bet for this thread to date in terms of points awarded (45.44).

[skylark2009]

#32. 12.15 Redcar - King Of Comedy @ 8/11 Paddy Power - Flat Kelly stake of 23.16pts (assessed chance of 67.64%)

Today's LTO winners -

Quite a lot of runners in this race means this bet could go astray due to unkowns, but King Of Comedy's win looked impressive. The 2nd (Persian Moon) has won 3 times since (won next two races immediately after this race). The 3rd (Topical) won his next but one race. The 3rd (Phoenix Of Spain) won his next two races. The three placed horses are rated at least 80+ now. King Of Comedy could be given a provisory rating of 60+ for his win. Irreverent looks interesting here too.

[skylark2009]

#33. 2.00 Lingfield - Uncle Jerry @ 5/6 William Hill - Flat Kelly stake of 44.99pts (assessed chance of 75%)

LTO winners for 16/11

Uncle Jerry has won his last two races since the application of blinkers (worn again today). Penultimate race saw the 4th win next time out (as well as Uncle Jerry) . His last race was won comfortably by 4L's while going away. Pretty much has similar conditions as those wins today and could well be in front of the handicapper for a tilt at a potential third win.

Grouping wise (spreadsheet), after applying the available price filter, reduces the group from 105 to 20 qualifiers with 15 of those winning next time (75%).

DB list for group 7999 after filtering for SP.