Natural strategy

[giraldi]

Just have spoken about luck few posts ago. I strongly believe that there is no luck/bad luck in betting on long periods. Yesterday I lost a few points in 90+ but I am pretty sure the god of stats will send them back to me very soon, probably own goal  in 90+ minutes :))

 

My selections for today:

 

For Away strategy

A17: Austria Vienna - Linz 2 @ 2.94

 

For Home strategy

H3: CSKA Moscow - Spartak 1 @ 2.35

H4: H Consadole S - Khasima 1 @ 2.77

 

 

 

Edited September 23, 2018 by giraldi

[real55555]

Agree with you on the luck factor. The thing is luck can work for you and work against you, so like giraldi has said, over long time the luck factor would have no significant effect on the final outcome. 

[giraldi]

My selection for today:

 

For Away strategy

A18: Neuchatel - Lugano 2 @ 2.40

 

Before week-end games will calculate current ROI. I think is a litle bit over 0 for Away after 17 selections and lost all on Home after 4 selections.

 

 

 

[giraldi]

My selections for today:

 

For Away strategy (18 units played, 0.95 units lost, - 5.28%)

A19: Rochdale - Portsmouth 2 @ 2.60

A20: Rapid Vienna - Polten 2 @ 5.05 !! (THIS IS MY FAVOURITE TODAY)

A21: Dukla - Fastav 2 @ 2.48

 

For Home strategy (4 units played, 4 units lost, - 100.%)

Here I will be patient, will not force...will play with attention until will come the first success (based on one of my friend prediction this will happen around 15th of March next year. Very nice guy.)

H5: Colchester - Bury 1 @ 2.41

 

And...... I intoduce today Draw strategy!!!!

The selections are made based on number of goals scored so far (if both teams scored under a specific number of goals/game then the game are good to go ) and the profile of the team (their records show an appetit for draws). And some other minor ingredients as every master chief uses  :))

D1: Grimsby - Morecambe X @ 3.10

D2: Birmingham - Ipswich X @ 3.15

Edited September 29, 2018 by giraldi

[giraldi]

Excellent results yesterday. Of course the Home strategy betrayed me again (If I will lose next 50 bets in a row  I will quit it) but  I am happy I won my favourite game (Rapid - Polten 0-2) at 5.05 in the Away strategy !!  Draw strategy started OK with 1 out of 2.

 

My selections for today:

For Away strategy (21 units played, 3.70 units won, +17.62%)

A22: Jena - Osnabruck 2 @ 2.85

A23: Molde - Rosenbrg 2 @ 3.03

A24: Viitorul - Astra 2 @ 3.69

 

For Home strategy (5 units played, 5 units lost, - 100.%)

H6: Sassuolo - Milan 1 @ 3.40

H7: Radniki - Partizan 1 @ 5.25

 

For Draw strategy (2 units played, 1.15 units won, +57.50%)

D3: Dinamo - Macva X @ 3.10

D4: Apollon - Panionios X @ 3.09

Edited September 30, 2018 by giraldi

[giraldi]

Last week-end after na excellent day on Saturday, I lost everything Sunday. I think I was a little bit excited after Saturday results.

 

My selections for today:

For Away strategy (24 units played, 0.70 units won, +2.92%)

A25: Brighton  - West Ham  2 @ 2.84

A26: Valenciennes - Stade Brestois 2 @ 2.34

A27: Hansa - Karlsruhe 2 @ 2.72

 

For Home strategy (7 units played, 7 units lost, - 100.%)

H8: Bohemians - Waterford 1 @ 2.85

 

For Draw strategy (4 units played, 0.85 units lost, -21.25%)

D5: KrsKro - Rudar X @ 3.14

 

 

[giraldi]

Over all a little bit profit yesterday ... 10%

 

My selections for today:

For Away strategy (27 units played, 0.04 units won, +0.15%)

A28: Bristol Rovers  - Walsall   2 @ 3.48

A29: Ebbsfleet - Harrogate 2 @ 3.11

A30: Augsburg II - Schalding-H 2 @ 3.31

 

For Home strategy (8 units played, 8 units lost, - 100.%)

H9: Budissa  - Leipzig 1 @ 3.47

 

For Draw strategy (5 units played, 1.45 units won, +29%)

D6: Carpi - Cosenza X @ 2.91

D7: Sligo Rovers - Bray Wanderers X @ 5.29

 

 

Edited October 6, 2018 by giraldi
wrong number for draw strategy 29% not 49%

[giraldi]

Good profit yesterday ... 35% but it seems that my Home strategy is one of "the best" around. Not. As I said I will not quit Home strategy until will lost 50 units.

If we used to say that a profitable strategy have to prove that on long period why not a bad strategy have to be proven bad on long period also? Maybe it is the best strategy ever but just need time to prove it.

 

My selections for today:

 

For Away strategy (30 units played, 3.63 units won, +12.10%)

A31: Rapid Vienna  - Mattersburgl   2 @ 4.82 (will try again againt Rapid...)

 

For Home strategy (10 units played, 10 units lost, - 100.%)

 

For Draw strategy (7 units played, 2.36 units won, +33.71%)

D8: Livorno - Spezia X @ 2.94

D9: Boavista - Aves X @ 3.45

D10: Braga - Academico X @ 3.24

D11: Yenisey - Spartak X @ 3.30

 

 

[giraldi]

My selections for today:

 

For Away strategy (31 units played, 2.63 units won, +8.48%)

A32: Kaiserslautern  - Uerdingen 05   2 @ 3.44

A33: Shalke 04  - Bremen  2 @ 3.75

A34: Barcelona - Sevilla  2 @ 8.16

 

For Home strategy (10 units played, 10 units lost, - 100.%)

H11: Aluminij K- Domzale 1 @ 3.60

 

For Draw strategy (11 units played, 1.64 units lost, -14.91%)

D12: Valencia - Leganes X @ 3.72

D13: Wiedenbruck - Cologne II X @ 3.56

D14: Vila Nova - Juventude X @ 3.22

[giraldi]

A very small profit yesterday, but still profit

My selections for today:

 

For the Away strategy (34 units played, 3.38 units won, +9.94%)

A35: Mattersburg  - St. Polten  2 @ 3.58

A36: Legia  - Wisla  2 @ 4.95

A37: Elfsborg - Sundsvall   2 @ 2.95

 

For the Home strategy (11 units played, 11 units lost, - 100.%)

It is against odds to lost 11 in a row . Will take a few days break here

 

For the Draw strategy (14 units played, 0.92 units lost, -6.57%)

D15: Betis - Valladoid X @ 3.97

D16: Zaragoza - Tenerife II X @ 3.14

 

[giraldi]

My selections for today:

 

For the Away strategy (37 units played, 0.38 units won, +1.03%)

A38: Atalanta  - Parma  2 @ 9.07 (my fav for today)

A39: Tenerife  - Alcoron  2 @ 3.98

A40: Kapfenberger 1919 - Wiener Neustadt   2 @ 2.81

A41: Inter Zapresic - Gorica  2 @ 2.95

 

For the Home strategy (11 units played, 11 units lost, - 100.%)

H12: Notts - Swindon   1 @ 2.51

H13: Pogon Szczecin - Lech Poznan   1 @ 2.50

 

For the Draw strategy (16 units played, 0.22 units won, 1.38%)

D17: Oxford - Shrewsbury X @ 3.26

D18: Livorno - Ascoli X @ 2.92

D19: Lugo - Cadiz X @ 2.97

D20: Sporting Farense - Cova Piedade X @ 3.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moggis]

A couple of things .

Firstly I’m not too sure what the strategy is as I didn’t read the thread too carefully but I didn’t have a problem with most of the selections .

In fact he was a bit unlucky with the Stoke Swansea one as the Swans had a lot of injuries.

Anyway ,there’s little point in making a profit from the lesser known leagues because you will soon get restricted or banned by the bookies if you start betting higher stakes while betfair I assume won’t have the liquidity .

Secondly I do wonder why anyone would ever give away exactly how they find value on a forum .

Value in soccer markets is becoming more and more scarce and thus to share it seems the height of madness .

Its even more strange when people have apparently worked hard to find it .

Also ,in the case of Osters v Falkenborgs and not a few other selections it seems to me that if you asked 100 people to tip that match most would have gone for Falkenborgs anyway and so if you are testing a selection process or system etc you really should test it on games where the selection wouldn’t be made by any idiot .

Having said all that the OP seems a lovely person who I’m sure will one day make a  great husband and father (especially after he’s stopped betting).

Edited October 31, 2018 by moggis

[moggis]

Oh I forgot.

The OP says that he doesn’t believe there’s such a thing as bad luck in the long term ie it evens out .

Im not 100% sure but I don’t believe that’s true.

There are so many100s of millions of bettors that some are bound to be winning by pure chance even if theyve placed 10,000 bets.

[giraldi]

Thank you for your intervention.

I am always open to learn and I am already open to get advices from far more experienced players like you seem to be.

Your opinions about value,  luck and bad luck in betting..etc opened my eyes and now I understand how the things works.  I feel very lucky you wrote in my thread.

 

P.S.

My Away strategy -  the main strategy and the single one tested last year with success is doing OK. I really do not understand what you said about Osters and why do you think that "most" would have gone for the away team. Even the fact that odds were so high shows that most of the players have gone for the home team not away team. This is just my opinion.

 

 

 

[liero1]

6 hours ago, moggis said:

Oh I forgot.

The OP says that he doesn’t believe there’s such a thing as bad luck in the long term ie it evens out .

Im not 100% sure but I don’t believe that’s true.

There are so many100s of millions of bettors that some are bound to be winning by pure chance even if theyve placed 10,000 bets.

impossible.. do 10k bets and you are 100% around +0.01% to -0.01% ROI... which still means you might be in hundreds profit or loss, wherever you land on that ROI scale.. that's for betfair only, use a bookie and you are definitely in loss due to their margin odds..

Edited October 31, 2018 by liero1