Natural strategy

[giraldi]

For the next season one of the few strategies will try is a strategy that I called “Natural strategy”. 

What it is about:

Will try to find under evaluated or over evaluated teams at some point. This will lead to a value bet (back or lay) – what I consider being the “natural strategy”.

We all know how the odds are calculated and how the bookies win no matter the outcome. If want to have profit on long period it is very clear that other players must lose money on the same period. Maybe you are not agreeing with me, bookies are on the good guy’s side in this story but this is out of subject here.

There are many ways to try to find over/under evaluated teams. Were invented a lot of systems that lead to value bet..etc.

I observed many years the teams behaviors home/away. The large majority of teams are “neutral ” meaning that they play relatively the same way home/away.  On the other hand there are teams that because of the player’s profile, manager style…etc have a very big differences between home play and away play.  That leads for example to completely unbalanced results when talk about points taken home/away.  Will give examples next days.

There are teams on the middle  of the table but when you check closely you see that 70% of the points came from away games. On the same way you might see a team where 100% of points  came from home games (even against top teams) but 0 points from away games. Etc... In the first case is very possible to have a good bet if the team plays away next round.  In the second case may be interesting to check the home odds closely. The value may exist even in 1.10 by the way.

If you find such teams and make a little bit more researches it is extremely probably that you find a value there. Of course, it is absolutely mandatory to check more than tables. If possible check injuries, important missing players…etc. If there are some doubts it is no bet.

Seems to be very simple but I assure you that is not and need a lot of patience.

 Will return next days with a few examples.

[real55555]

Agree with you on your concept of looking for value bets. A team on a 5 game winning streak will definitely have a shorter odds on their 6th game even if their team and manager remain the same. That is when we bet on the other team if this concept holds true. 

[giraldi]

23 hours ago, real55555 said:

A team on a 5 game winning streak will definitely have a shorter odds on their 6th game even if their team and manager remain the same. That is when we bet on the other team if this concept holds true. 

 

Yes, this is an example. Of course the majority of players will see the winning streak and probably a much better place in the league table in short time. This will probably result in higher prices for the team and better odds for the opponent.  However here I see 2 big problems.

1. This is a simple case and many other will see the same thing and probably extremely fast the odds will be set so can not be played anymore.

2. This strategy can lead to so called "Gambler's fallacy" problem. Nobody can guarantee that our team will not win next 10 games also.

 

For your examples I think that the idea is too see as early as possible the winning streaks. Imagine that you see that after games no.2.. will have 3 winning bets (and maybe 1 lost - the fourth) and the odds are still good because the other players are not as good as you are

 

Anyway, the idea I will apply in this thread is a little bit different. Will try to exploit the "first impulse" to back better placed teams (I did not say better teams) without check theirs or opponents specific behaviour. 

As a dumb rule, but I am sure you already know, is always better to play against the stream.  The planes take off against the wind and not push by the wind.

 

 

 

Edited August 22, 2018 by giraldi

[real55555]

I believe you are heading in the right direction in terms of statistical betting. Either by generating a set of criteria to deliver a favourable result or getting ahead of the odds in what we called value betting. 

Best of luck Giraldi. 

[giraldi]

Ok, thank you

Just to make a little bit more clear my strategy I will show you something. I know that the interval is too short for relevant results but just wanted to underline the system not the results.  Following days will check for much bigger periods.

I set the following filter for all the games in the interval  01.08--25.08.

later edit: I switched home with away but corrected now

1. Away  teams - place 1-5 in their lleague away table

2. Home teams - place on home  table bigger than 5 places over away team place. (here I have to check the condition )

3. Round  - at least 10 rounds played

4. Away team odds - bigger than 3.00

The results are in the following picture:  12 games, 5H-2D-5A, 3.74 proffit, +31%

Also you can see in the picture 4 next games (the Chile league game has been  played - result 1-0)

From my strategy point of view is very interesting the Japan league game. As you can see home team has a good position in total table but only 9th on the home table since away team is on 8th position on total table but had very good reults away (3th position). They won 4 out of last 5 games away.   

Of course there will need more info about last events  but at first sight seems very interesting to play something against home team. Maybe a small handicap...etc The odds are excellent in my opinion.

Later edit: the odds for the home team are dropping now. Probably a lot of players put money on home team. They did not receive goal on their last 4 games at home but against bottom teams. From my point of view there are more reasons to back away team (with handicap)

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

Edited August 25, 2018 by giraldi

[giraldi]

As I promised, I start today my strategy.. All the selections will be based on something similar with what I explained on previous posts,

The stake is 1 unit  for each game. Will be only 1,x,2, over or under  (because I do not have AH odds on my software yet). 

1. Osijek - Lok. Zagreb 2 @ 5.30 

2. Avai - Figueirense 2 @ 4.45.

 

 

 

[giraldi]

I would say that it was a good start

For today I suggest to take a look in Poland:  

3. Cracovia Krakow - Legia Warszawa  2 @ 2.30

There was a poor start for both of them but Legia is by far the better team and with 5 goals scored last 2 games away (out of 9 total goals) I do not see why to not score totay against a modest team. The only problem I see here is related to their recent elimination against a team from Luxembug. There are some poblems in the team but they are a big club..... and I hope the problem has been overcome. 

 

 

 

Edited September 2, 2018 by giraldi

[giraldi]

20 hours ago, giraldi said:

3. Cracovia Krakow - Legia Warszawa  2 @ 2.30

It was a good selection I think  but Legia played 77 minutes in 10 ....

For today I selected:

4. Osters IF - Falkenberg 2 @ 2.99

 

 

 

[harry_rag]

Keep ‘em coming.

[Zemside]

Yep ,nice 2.30  on   -0,25 price

[giraldi]

On 03/09/2018 at 6:42 AM, giraldi said:

4. Osters IF - Falkenberg 2 @ 2.99

It was a good selection again. Thank you for your support.

For me it is not a surprise. I used this strategy last season between March and the end of the season with more than 20% ROI.  I admit that overall, all stratgies I used togeter with my software gave me around -8% ROI over the same period  but this one with away selections has been extremely good. Will see next weeks how it works. 

Of course, at this odds, can be many loses in a row but let-s keep everything to be fun . 

I always said, just before placing the bet just think for a second how would you feel if lose the money. If you feel bad just consider a lower stake then think again.

For today I selected

5. Dover - Ebbsfleet 2 @ 2.49

Yesterday I placed at much more better price but this is the price this morning....I think it is still good to play

 

 

 

Edited September 4, 2018 by giraldi

[thecurlyone1]

whats the current PnL ?

[giraldi]

Nothing to play today.  The start was good and don-t want to spoil everything by playing just  for the sake of the game. This is a big error I made many times in the past (probably all of us did it). If I have 48% ROI and found nothing good to play, why to play?

Yes, in my opinion this is the second big mistake a player can do - to consider that the money you just won are not yours and do not care if they are easy lost...

thecurlyone1 .. I never used PnL and to be honest I do not know what is good for. If you will have time please explain it or give me a link to understand what it is about.

[real55555]

I think what thecurylone1 means by PnL is profit and loss. Just an update of the profit/loss of your picks so far.

[robstars7]

what software are you using? 

[harry_rag]

6 hours ago, real55555 said:

I think what thecurylone1 means by PnL is profit and loss. Just an update of the profit/loss of your picks so far.

Something like this perhaps (my understanding of how things stand so far, to 1 point level stakes)?

2 winners from 5 selections, +2.44 points with an ROI of 48.8%

2 of the losing selections have drawn so there may be scope for following via draw no bet or double chance.

[thecurlyone1]

1 minute ago, harry_rag said:

Something like this perhaps (my understanding of how things stand so far, to 1 point level stakes)?

2 winners from 5 selections, +2.44 points with an ROI of 48.8%

2 of the losing selections have drawn so there may be scope for following via draw no bet or double chance.

Cheers H

[giraldi]

Thank you very much for clarifications and sorry for not answering last days but had a kind of flu ... It was the first one in the last 10 years but hit me hard.

This is not a medical forum so let-s return to natural strategy.

I checked last 2 days games and  nothing important happened.  Yes, as harry said there was 5 selections and around 49% Roi but this is not so important at this moment. It is more important to check if the bets were OK and I think 4 out of 5 were OK, I mean it was a good idea to back the away teams. 

Until will have enough data on European leagues I have to check exotic leagues and this is not comfortable because I always hated to play in leagues where I have no idea how to read correctly the teams' name 

For today I selected from Japan 2

6. Kyoto - Zweigen 2 @ 2.40

 

 

[harry_rag]

Another DC success.

[giraldi]

Thank you harry_rag but it was a lost for my strategy

Yes, I said that I will play only 1,x,2, (more 2 ) but I would strongly recommend AH.

I play this way because my software has not odds for AH and don-t want to get complicated. Probably taking into account the odds and the winning rate of 5 out of 6 for DC probably the proffit would have been a little bit bigger but not with much.

You gave me an idea. I will imagine a procedure to compare what you played with what would have been if you played something else (but very close to original play).  I am not sure I am very clear.  Imagine you can see a graph with your profit after you played 20 games away team win. Then, over it a graph with what would have been if had played x2  and so on... I think would have been very useful...

My selection for today is from Superettan

7. Orgryte - Osters 2 @ 3.14

 

 

[giraldi]

After 7 games I am back where I started but still a small proffit. +6%.

Since almost all leagues played just a few games, very hard to find games for my strategy.

8. Ostersund - Malmo 2 @ 2.11

9. Niigata - Zweigen 2 @ 2.72

 

 

[giraldi]

For today I found 

10. Stoke - Swansea 2 @ 4.52

11. WBA - Bristol 2 @ 4.27

12. Dresden - Hamburg 2 @ 2.36

The odds are pretty big but can be played with a small handicap also if you are not comfortable with that. On the other hand don-t be afraid of odds. They are just the other users opinion about the probability to happen the event and their opinion is not necessary the best one, especially when there is a large majority.  In betting, one of the best thing can happen is to be "on the other side".

I am working to find a similar strategy for Home win and for the next weekend will start, in the same thread, the same strategy but for Home win market. 

Away win strategy seems decent until now.. but I have to take care because the number of games is very small and the temptations are extremely big ...:)

 

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

hi have you got your latest stats to see how you are doing cheers gl

[giraldi]

After 12 games I lost 0.09  (-0.75% ROI).

I think it is a good start as soon as I do not have enough data yet for most of the leagues.

I am confident that ROI will be around 10% soon, after will found out  the "away teams" for the current season.

 

OK,  I will telll you one of my theories I have to check.

If we consider any season as a movie, every year we watch the same movie, the same script, almost the same actors (we have a few promoted/relegated teams..etc) but the actors play each year other role.

If we look back we can easy identifya few "roles" and I will come back with examples. One of the role is "away team" - this is a medium/decent team that make the life very hard for all home teams. I do not know - it is about the way the team is build and are aranged in the field, the players, the manager's ideas..I do not know but they are very hard to beat when play away. (and almost in all cases they are loosing many points at home)

For example take a look at Gimnastic (Spain 2 league) last year. After 10 rounds we already seen that beated in less than 2 months, in Octomber and November, away, Cordoba, Valladoid, Numancia.. This could not be random. Until the end of the season they were placed 14 but lost away only 1 game against top 6. The profit would have been more than 250% .... This is what I call an "away team"

The same way, we have "home team", "relegated for sure team"' ..etc you can say more.

I do not want to develop the idea here and now but of course if we can identify this pairs team-role as soon as possible in the season will have a big advantage,

Of course I am open for any comments/opinions

 

 

[harry_rag]

7 hours ago, giraldi said:

For example take a look at Gimnastic (Spain 2 league) last year. After 10 rounds we already seen that beated in less than 2 months, in Octomber and November, away, Cordoba, Valladoid, Numancia.. This could not be random. Until the end of the season they were placed 14 but lost away only 1 game against top 6. The profit would have been more than 250% .... This is what I call an "away team"

The thing is, it certainly could be entirely random over such a small sample, or (most likely) down to a combination of how the team has played but with a considerable element of luck thrown in. Making a judgement that places the right value on what the stats are telling you without overvaluing them (i.e. filtering out the luck) is the hard part.

Most people underestimate the extent that luck plays in the outcome of football matches. There's a saying that an infinite number of monkeys bashing away at typewriters would eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare. Are football teams most like actors following a script or monkeys hammering a typewriter? Probably a bit of both but more of the latter than most people allow for.

So go for it but question what the stats are telling you.

[Mirco]

Hi mates,

first of all congratulation to Girardi for the idea.

I think too that "underdog" or anyway away team can give us a good profit going under the mass of bettors.

Edited September 20, 2018 by Mirco

[Mirco]

On 25/8/2018 at 6:52 AM, giraldi said:

 

 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2018 by Mirco

[giraldi]

Mirco, just sent you a message with a short description about the filter I used.

Harry_rag, thank you for your message. I aggree with you regarding luck in betting but on the same time I strongly believe that we have to forget about luck if we want to improve our play.

We can speak about luck when we are talking about a game but not when we are talking about enough bets over a long enough period of time. We all know that won/lost games in 90 +4 minutes..impossible games in last minutes..etc but of course we are built to remember better the negative expereinces. I just want to say that over a long enough period of time the luck has zero influence in betting. 

More than that,  at the moment a player will forget about luck and focus only on strategy, money management, patience...etc will be surprised how much will improve the play.

It is exactly like in Backgammon. I am now a more then decent player but I improved my play only when I discovered myself thay Backgammon is not about luck but it is about skill. Of course I can beat the world champion in a one point game but in 21 points game I have no chance because the luck has almost 0 influence and remains only skill.   On the same way you can win or lose a bet because luck but on long periods is another story.

I also agree that my example could not be necessary "not random"  but the probability for a team to beat a few better teams in row with luck is extremely low so we can assume that it was not random but something happens there. 

I hope my message is understable for native English speakers...:)

 

 

Edited September 21, 2018 by giraldi

[giraldi]

For today my selection is

A13.   Vejle - Esbjerg 2 @ 3.24

Because starting tomorrow I will play similar strategies but on other markets I will write "A" for "Away" strategy, "H"  for "Home" , "D" for "Draw" strategy...etc. Thats why the current selection is "A13"

Will be also here, in this thread but just want to keep separate control on each market to see where is more proffitable. The idea is the same - will try to find "home teams"..."draw teams"..etc. Please read one of my previous message.

 

[giraldi]

For today my selections are:

For "Away Team" :

A14: Southend - Fleetwood 2 @ 4.07

A15: Gillingham - Peterborough  2 @ 2.20

A16: Paris - Metz 2 @ 2.43

 

As I promised I will start today "Home Team" strategy. The selections are made based on similar filters:  teams that have a very good play at home, they are in good shape and the odds are good to play 

H1: Bury - Carlisle 1 @ 1.90

H2: KS Lechia - Zaglebie 1 @ 2.31