Covering All Eventualities & Cashing Out

[duckmaster]

Here's an idea I've been toying with - betting on as many eventualities within a group of games (at the same time) and hoping enough goes your way at a certain point in the game to cash out for an immediate profit - the aim being to double the original stake.

We'll start by looking at all the games being played in Englands League 2 tomorrow (Tuesday) at 19.45pm:

	H/X	H	A	A/X	H/A
Cambridge v Exeter	1.36	2.4	3	1.53	1.33
Carlisle v Port Vale	1.29	2.15	3.5	1.67	1.33
Colchester v Crewe	1.25	2	3.8	1.73	1.29
Crawley v Swindon	1.53	2.8	2.4	1.4	1.29
Forest Green v Stevenage	1.33	2.15	3.3	1.62	1.33
Lincoln v Bury	1.22	1.95	4	1.83	1.29
MK Dons v Grimsby	1.17	1.73	4.6	2	1.25
Macclesfield v Cheltenham	1.36	2.3	3	1.57	1.33
Morecambe v Northampton	1.83	4.2	1.85	1.22	1.29
Newport County v Notts County	1.36	2.4	3	1.53	1.33
Tranmere v Mansfield	1.4	2.63	2.75	1.44	1.33
Yeovil v Oldham	1.4	2.5	2.75	1.5	1.29

H/X = Home Or Draw

H = Home Win

A = Away Win

A/X = Away Or Draw

H/A = Home Or Away

 

So what we're going to do is place a 12 fold accumulator on each of these. The odds are as follows

H/X = Home Or Draw	42.2
H = Home Win	31947
A = Away Win	732142
A/X = Away Or Draw	232
H/A = Home Or Away	24.7

My first thought here was to set a "potential max win" of, say £100. I would then divide that £100 by the odds to give me stakes and max potential winnings of:

STAKE	MAX WIN
2.366397	42.25833423
0.00313	31947.80525
0.000137	732142.3448
0.430544	232.2644838
4.046053	24.71544363

This obviously creates a problem because two of those stakes are below £0.05 each, and my minimum stake is £0.05. Plus, the odds are so astronomical that the chance of even getting my cash out is slim, so I've been very unscientific now and just tapped some numbers into my spreadsheet to come up with this:

STAKE	MAX WIN
3.5	147.90
0.15	4792.17
0.15	109821.35
0.8	185.81
5.4	133.46

 

And that is.... really about it. My total stake is then £10, and my aim is to simply watch my livebets as the games are being played. The rules are:

1) As soon as one of the bets can be cashed out for £20 (to double my money), CASH OUT.

2) If at any point multiple bets can be cashed out for at least a total of £20, CASH OUT.

3) After approx 60 minutes cut losses and cash everything out to try and get the original £10 stake back.

 

 

Will update this thread during the games tomorrow evening. All odds are from Skybet.

 

Any thoughts?

[real55555]

Good idea. Which bookmaker are you using? 

and for no.3, depending on the live results on the 60th min, if things doesn't go your way I doubt you will be able to get the original $10 back, and since it involves so 12 games, just 2-3 of the games to go ther other way of the result (e.g. you buy Home/Draw Double Chance for Cambridge, but they are losing 0-2 on the 60th min) and you may only be able to cash out maybe 10% of your $10 on the 60th min if they still allow cash out in this instance

[duckmaster]

The hope is that enough of the scores will be in the right columns to ensure I have a cash out. Look at this table:

H A DRAW 1 X     2 X     3 X     4 X     5 X     6 X     7 X     8 X     9 X     10 X     11 X     12 X

Imagine that was in the 35th minute, all home teams are winning - I should have a cash out in the positive.

Now if this happens in the 40th minute:

	H	A	DRAW
1	X
2	X
3	X
4		X
5		X
6		X
7	X
8	X
9	X
10	X
11		X
12		X

Several teams have scored enough times to go ahead. I won't have a cash out for my HOME accumulator, but will for my HOME/AWAY accumulator.

Now this one:

	H	A	DRAW
1			X
2			X
3			X
4		X
5		X
6		X
7	X
8			X
9			X
10	X
11		X
12		X

 

In this case several teams are now drawing. I won't have a cash out for HOME or AWAY but because the odds are high enough I might do for A/X. What I'm going to do is record the cash out values throughout the game (up to the point where I cash out, hopefully) and put them all into a graph format. Maybe we'll see some sort of pattern between the five graphs.   I think this is something which hasn't really been looked at as the stats on cashing out aren't really available, you actually have to look them up yourself. If nothing else it'll be an interesting experiment!   Using SkyBet in the UK for my bookies.

[duckmaster]

I wrote all that but forgot to actually put the bets on (since this experiment has to be done properly in real time, I can't just do it on paper)!! The odds have changed slightly but here are the stakes and returns:

BET	STAKE	POT WIN	approx odds
HOME	0.15	3642.85	25,000/1
AWAY	0.15	118056.2	79,000/1
HOME/DRAW	3.5	139.72	40/1
HOME/AWAY	5.4	133.25	25/1
AWAY/DRAW	0.8	204.33	255/1

As all games are scheduled to start at 19.45. I'll be trying to write down all the cash-out amounts approx once per minute, but I'll also be recording my computer screen with PowerPoint so I can double check it afterwards to see if I miss anything.

What I'm HOPING to find is graphs like the one attached - the cash out amount will be volatile and will go up or down (dependent on the bet; expecting HOME/DRAW to go up, but AWAY to go down quite quickly). We might see some sort of pattern emerge, especially when the five graphs I can make after the game are combined.

Or we might not, but we won't know till we've tried...

I will of course post screenshots after the games and if anyone wants to keep an eye on this thread the games kick off at 19.45 BST and I'll try and post progress then.

[duckmaster]

It's not going very well at half time. Total cash out value on all bets is £4.65 from £10 staked... 

[duckmaster]

Disaster!

[keef75]

I couldn't help but have a little laugh at that last comment, it's cheered me up!

I've attempted similar things on Betfair, picking a load of results and then keeping my fingers crossed that I can cash-out at some point.  However, and I'm sure it's been pointed out before, the more selections you have the more that can go wrong!  It'll be good to keep an eye on things but, as you say, you have to follow it live with money on to see the cash-out amount.  Why not use a £1 bet for the moment, see how it performs without risking much money?

[duckmaster]

It was an interesting experiment at least, and I did manage to make the graph below, which tells us.... well, I've got no idea!

It's interesting that Home/Away held it's cash out value well up to half time (my laptop crashed at kick off so half time is about 37 minutes in; that's why it only goes up to 82 minutes). 

I'll be trying this with smaller stakes and making similar graphs. And maybe 5 game accumulators rather than 12!

[keef75]

Cool.  What's your selection method?

[duckmaster]

Well there wasn't a selection method, it was just 5 accumulators covering everything to see what happened 

The final results were Home 5, Away 1, Draw 6... so Home/Draw at 40/1 was only one game off.

 

As I have the pre-match odds (posted earlier) I'm going to look at those teams form, goals scored etc and see if I can come up with a better method than just "click everything". I also think that picking the HOME only, AWAY only and AWAY/DRAW is probably a waste of time and money.

Edited August 22, 2018 by duckmaster

[keef75]

2 minutes ago, duckmaster said:

I also think that picking the HOME only, AWAY only and AWAY/DRAW is probably a waste of time and money.

Yes, the thing is it depends on who's play who, current form etc. There may be times when all homes is a good bet though.  Lots of investigation for you to do.  Good luck with it, I'll be watching!

[real55555]

duckmaster, great work there. I do believe with a bit of tweaking or the inclusion of certain criteria into your pick selection will help greatly, and yes, probably reduce the number of picks. 

And yes, the home only and away only is most likely a waste of time and money. Just check how many gameweeks that ends with all home wins or away wins. It does happen on probably a few midweek games but probably not over 12 games (full gameweek)

Anyway, keep it up, you've done great. I'll be following with interest and give my comments if you don;t mind

[Xtc12]

Like the idea @duckmaster have to agree with reducing the amount of games. The problem then with the double chance bet your odds are reduced so small returns. Maybe the lower divisions in Scotland, so far this season Div1 has had 1 from 3 where all the games finished HA and Div 2 all the 3 weeks finished HA or HX. All the best with this. 

[duckmaster]

Thanks for the encouragement and suggestions!

Going to have another bash at this but with a four fold this time. Home/Draw and Away/Draw offer such stupendously bad odds that I've gone for AWAY wins only. Target criteria is this:

1) Team must have played at least ten games this season.

2) CUP games only - so no team is "playing for a draw"

3) Odds of approx 1.5 (1/2)

4) Team must be at least one division above their opponent

5) Accumulator of approx 6.0 (5/1)

 

The Swedish Cup seems to fit this criteria today. I have a HUNCH that Cup games will be more volatile with cash out than league games - and since I'm only interested in cash out that would be useful. Most people will say to stay away from Cup games, but it might work for this idea...

So todays pick (17:30 UK time):

Örebro SK @ 1.50
Akropolis IF v Örebro SK

Degerfors IF @ 1.50
Enskede IK v Degerfors IF

 

Östers IF @ 1.57
Skövde AIK v Östers IF

IK Brage @ 1.53
Västerås SK FK v IK Brage
 

The accumulator is 4.42/1. I've staked £9.25 (because that puts the money in my bookies account on a nice even number; the number being 0!) and will be cashing out as soon as it hits £18.50. If it does!

I'll make another graph and we can look at the volatility of cash out during this round afterwards.

[duckmaster]

Not entirely sure what I'm actually learning here but it's currently 3-0, 1-0, 0-0 and 0-0 at half time.

Have a graph

[duckmaster]

Again, not *entirely* sure what I've learnt - or even what this strategy is, is it just "cash out as soon as I've doubled up"? - but that's that in the 59th minute.

Cashed out for £19.49 from £9.25. Scores at the time were 0-3, 0-2, 1-1 and 0-1.

[duckmaster]

[duckmaster]

I feel that all I've really done here is make some pretty (but maybe useful) graphs that show how cash out changes through the course of play... not really sure where to go from here!