keef75

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Hi All

Just for info when I am doing my over under  calculations described above the reason I choose the top 3 per league and then select the Highest price is:-

Lets say Man City have a run of consecutive games like Yesterdays 6-1 win at Huddersfield ( i think you will agree that Man City will be above Huddersfield all they way so the goals would be used at some point) you can be sure the over 2.5 goals odds would be prohibitive as I believe Bookies also look at these trends

so by Taking the Highest price from my top 3 per league I will hopefully eliminate the freak runs that occur

By the way I only keep data for 8 leagues 4 English 4 European More than enough work and I commend you on the number of leagues you are keeping data for

My data sheet also calculates the home and away tables based on the days results

so for example when I update the results on a Saturday the Tables are correct for Sundays Games ( results are entered on a daily basis)

I have found this way to be more accurate than importing/Copying tables on a weekly basis although its a little time consuming

and the team names don't need changing

Keep up the good work I follow in anticipition

 

Regards

Ken

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Hi Ken,

It sounds like you have your hands full keeping that up to date too.  How are your results looking?  Decent profits or are you just starting with the seasons?

@Rivilearner - keep an eye on the date ranges.  I made a change so that when you load up a previously saved set it remembers the date range when the set was saved.  Previously it was just returning the whole date range.  I've just tried it with the following and it's returning some rows:

set1.thumb.gif.29120c7e43fc243e7bd9f8540b931ade.gif

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Hmmm, I've just had another play around and I can't seem to get many results although it was returning loads earlier.  The last thing I did was work on the save/load aspect so maybe I've messed something up.  I'm looking into it now.

On further checking it all seems fine.  You do have to be quite generous with your filters, try this one:

set2.thumb.gif.3d0199d0f5673d36a3c2f5010dad5a7a.gif

I noticed that the odds are quite low on the winners so best to keep the Min SP at 1.01 and then play around with the other options.

Edited by keef75

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I have being playing around with the options and would like to know what the average numbers under the country name signifies, is it the average for the two teams based on the filters I place or the league average. 

secondly under H/A the numbers there are they filters for current match played or my criteria 

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The average under the country name (when looking at over/under bet types) is the overall average number of goals for both teams across the chosen number of historical games.

Under H/A are the total number of home and away matches played in the season.  This only applies to the historical data and should be accurate every time. From 10th August there is a single number which is the approximate number of matches played based on the season start date, number of teams/matches etc.  It's probably accurate to within one game most of the time.

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I would like to thank you for this wonderful tool and the time and effort you have put into it and your quick responder. 

Under the country name average it should show the average goal scored by the teams (home/away) based on the filtered match (6 or 5) not average per seaso. 

The number under H/A matches is it the historical  match played or my filtered criteria 

Sorry for the trouble 

 

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@keef75 Hi there The seasons have just started so no selections as yet will probably be starting mid September. As I only started creating the data a couple of seasons ago (2016/2017) refined the selection process during 2017/2018 the results looked very promising and the 25 or 30 bets made at the tail end of last season resulted in a profit.This encouraged me to to refine the selection process a little more ( as I had more data to research)  I am looking forward to this season There is a lot more to the selection process than just goals scored as I also give each game a rating based on the result goals scored and the position of the team in the league. The ratings are based on the ELO ratings provide by PL

screen shot below

image.thumb.png.805fdeb03428e8c0b35ac9f3500e1264.png

Have you considered using median rather than average when calculating goals over/under this I believe give another angle and removes those freak scores.

Regards

Ken

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@keef75 coming along great guns all we need is data now current season data is crucial here using pervious data is suicidal as Manchester United would vouch for on Sunday. 

 

Personally all my bets are inplay these days I don't bother pre match but using the data you are supplying could help me use inplay as well as my data I use from my site 

 

Keep up the good work and effort pays off for them who put the effort in 

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Another variation to my under/over strategy is average goal scored and received by the home team and goal scored and received away team divided by 2. If it's above 2.5 is most likely over 2goals.

Basically my first strategy generates more BTTS. 

Edited by Rivilearner

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5 hours ago, Kentucky110 said:

@keef75 Hi there The seasons have just started so no selections as yet will probably be starting mid September. As I only started creating the data a couple of seasons ago (2016/2017) refined the selection process during 2017/2018 the results looked very promising and the 25 or 30 bets made at the tail end of last season resulted in a profit.This encouraged me to to refine the selection process a little more ( as I had more data to research)  I am looking forward to this season There is a lot more to the selection process than just goals scored as I also give each game a rating based on the result goals scored and the position of the team in the league. The ratings are based on the ELO ratings provide by PL

screen shot below

image.thumb.png.805fdeb03428e8c0b35ac9f3500e1264.png

Have you considered using median rather than average when calculating goals over/under this I believe give another angle and removes those freak scores.

Regards

Ken

which software are you using

 

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16 hours ago, Rivilearner said:

Average should be goal scored home + goal scored away /2 

ie 2.43+1.89/2=2.16 which should be under 2.5 goal 

1.80+3.22/2=2.51 which is over 2.5 goals 

Hope you understand what I mean

Yes, this is exactly what it does based on the number of matches you choose (between 1 and 10 in the list).

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8 hours ago, Kentucky110 said:

Have you considered using median rather than average when calculating goals over/under this I believe give another angle and removes those freak scores.

That's not a bad idea, I might add another option so we can choose average or median.

I'd love to see your system in action, it looks good.

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26 minutes ago, keef75 said:

Yes, this is exactly what it does based on the number of matches you choose (between 1 and 10 in the list).

It's quite unfortunate its on the loosing side.

What if it could factor in average goal scored and conceded home and away teams last 6 matches. ( I chose last 6 matches because it really shows the current form of each team and an indicator of teams true strength)

Hope it won't be much stress adding it, because I really want to explore all avenue before concluding if its profit or loss in the long run

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2 minutes ago, Rivilearner said:

What if it could factor in average goal scored and conceded home and away teams last 6 matches. ( I chose last 6 matches because it really shows the current form of each team and an indicator of teams true strength)

Hope it won't be much stress adding it, because I really want to explore all avenue before concluding if its profit or loss in the long run

I'm trying to have a day off it today, I've lost count of the number of hours I've put into it over the last few days and my brain is fried!  I'll take another look tomorrow.

Edited by keef75
Spelling

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3 minutes ago, Rivilearner said:

It's quite unfortunate its on the loosing side.

It depends what other filters you use in addition to the last 6 match average.  There are so many options.  The last thing I was working on last night was a sort of reverse analysis.  These will show all the leagues and the percentage of games that ended in a win/draw/loss, the price of the highest percentage of draws etc.  It'll be able to do loads of things, just need to write it all!

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11 minutes ago, keef75 said:

I'm trying to have a day off it today, I've lost count of the number of hours I've put into it over the last few days and my brain is fried!  I'll take another look tomorrow.

Take a day off my friend no problem. Beginning of any thing is difficult but once you are through and its fully automated you can now relax and enjoy :beer

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3 hours ago, keef75 said:

That's not a bad idea, I might add another option so we can choose average or median.

I'd love to see your system in action, it looks good.

I will let you know how things go as the season progresses

Patience my friend 

I have just managed to get the database to save the pre-game data in a format I can easily re-use (hoping this will be useful in the future) as the data is currently saved once the result is known. This should save a lot of time when back checking results.

You will find with your System /Selection method that it will be constantly changing. I have updated mine numerous times usually based on something that I have read on PL as stated before I have been playing about with the database since 2016/17 season and find new ideas constantly some I implement others just get noted and saved for use later.

I am self taught with VBA and find better and quicker ways to write the code on a weekly basis all from the internet

personally I am only looking for 3 or 4 selections a week although the database throws up on average 15 - 20 per week the trick is finding the ones to select I am currently working on compiling my own odds based on my ratings hoping this will give me an edge in selecting value though I am sure the bookies don't make many mistakes and their programmers are far better than me

I would just like to say Punters Lounge is the best source of Ideas I have come across keep up the good work

Regards

Ken

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22 minutes ago, Zemside said:

Good Stuff,I see Betaminic have some filters but very price focused.

 

Hmmm, I can't seem to do anything without signing up on there.  Then there are the price plans.  The whole point of the site I'm developing is that it's totally free with no need to sign up or anything.  It does look like a decent site though, maybe I'm missing something and you can view some free information there?

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Yep,keep the way you're going,good work.

You can test some ideas on Betaminic (once signed)but won't see all the games in the query ,just the summary and graphs.

I downloaded a kindle book to understand their direction more,well ,once you know the idea it's just the prices that are difficult to watch without using them.They have a bot on Pinnacle prices.Their test period is about from 2012 and I'll bring some of their ideas across here so others can try out and improve on.

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1 minute ago, Zemside said:

Their test period is about from 2012 and I'll bring some of their ideas across here so others can try out and improve on.

That'd be good, thanks.  I'll be adding more historical data soon, initially going back to 2016 but hopefully further so we'll have more matches to check the results of systems against.

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I've added another year's worth of historical data to the 51 leagues that I had it for so the date range now starts at 27th February 2016.

Additionally, when you load a parameter set it retains the date range that was chosen when the set was saved.  Rather than having to fiddle around with the dates to show the whole range I've added a new button 'Expand Date Range'.  One press of that will reload the page using the whole date range.

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      No sign up offer currently.
    • LeTou Bookmaker £0
      No welcome offer at present.
    • Setantabet - Irish Bookmaker £0
      No welcome offer at the moment.
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      No welcome offer.
    Casino 13
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    • Up to £100 Casino Bonus! £100
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    • £50 Bonus + 20 Free Spins £50
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    Bingo 1
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    Poker 1
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