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On 04/09/2018 at 6:40 AM, CzechPunter said:

Pure madness indeed :loon. It's -3.3pts for me after Sharapova failed.

R.Nadal/D.Thiem - Over 3.5 sets at 1.73 with Paddy Power

Rafael Nadal has a 9-0 sets lead over Thiem in Grand Slams, but he's been pretty average so far, having plenty of issues against Khachanov and then dropping a set out of nowhere against Nikoloz. Thiem had a good match against Anderson, on the other hand, and it seems to me that he's just fitter, with Nadal possibly having some knee issues again. He isn't complaining about them on air for obvious reasons, but I can't see him going the whole way. Should be a tight match and I wouldn't be shocked to see an upset.

Madison Keys (-3.5) to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro at 1.80 with Bet365

Naomi Osaka (-3.5) to beat Lesya Tsurenko at 1.91 with BoyleSports

I watched all four on Monday and I really fancy the favourites here. Both played much better than their upcoming opponents and both have the right weapons for the match-ups, too much strength in general. Tsurenko also had some fitness issues against Vondrousova, who had her own health problems.

I notice you quote 3 different bookies for your bets CP so I'm a bit worried you didn't back the treble that would've paid around 5.50

anyway, gr8 tipping mate.

:notworthy

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

3/3 from Tuesday/Wednesday.

K.Nishikori/N.Djokovic - Over 3.5 sets at 1.91 with Paddy Power

The only bet that I'll be taking from the SFs is this one, as Djokovic is yet to impress me in this tournament and as I think that he's yet to face a tough test. The draw has been very kind to him and yet he's struggled physically with the conditions, hard to say what his real level is. Nishikori, on the other hand, has beaten much stronger players over the couple of rounds here and he certainly has what it takes to keep this at least somewhat tight quality-wise. I don't see him winning, but a 3-0 result doesn't look all that likely to me either.

you make a great case for a Nishi win CP so I'll be on him.

Nishikori to win @5.25 with Marathonbet

good luck all :ok

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Williams S. - Sevastova A.

over 2.5 sets @3.25 with Bet365

Serena is playing great despite her arse being a stone overweight. But Pliskova was quite close to winning the first set against her when 4-2 up.

Anastasija has a not very secret weapon; the drop shot as well as being very good in most other departments as she's shown us thus far.

I don't think Serena will enjoy this match but will win it but may well lose a set to the shrewd Latvian.

good luck all :ok

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Well, well, well Semi in woman`s, 3 offensive players, and one I would say "chess player".

I more agree with Yogg picks, just wonder if Serenas serve and offense would not finish most points in 2-4 shots, in this case there is no chance, but if Sevastova will manage to keep ball longer in court, there is chance to play chess once again...plus, hope fitness and concentration would case problem for Williams, so my pick, Sevastova win set@2.30 William Hill, and yes, Osaka as well, as its 50/50 game for me, and no bet, but if bookies can see some favorite here, I am going against them.

Good luck everyone

 

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Serena Williams vs Anastasija Sevastova

It isn't a secret that people is expecting Serena to win, especially cause she’s 2 wins away from a record 24th Grand Slam title and it'd be brave to bet against her. For her opponent is the first time in her career she's in a semifinal Slam. Williams run here wasn’t that hard, only Kaia Kanepi took a set off her, meanwhile Sevastova had a very tough run, including her match against #3 Stephens. I think Williams’ experience will be enough to beat Sevastova in just 2 sets.

My pick is under 20.5 games @ 1.806 (2 units) at Pinnacle

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Is someone betting on Nadal vs Del Potro match?? I think is an extremely risky bet. i'm not that brave hahaha but i really believe if these two are great, i mean no injuries unexpectedly appearing during the match, it would be a very long one.

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Novak Djokovic/Kei Nishikori over 3.5 sets at 2.10 with Paddypower

I'm with @CzechPunter on this one. Nishi has played well enough to take this over 3 sets and when every other bookie I checked on is under 1.90 on over 3.5 sets Paddy raises the odds instead of lowering so I have to jump on over 3.5 sets with Paddy here. Novak has played well ofcourse but wasn't so special against John Millman. Kei had a difficult match against Marin Cilic but his returns were awesome and a return winner sealed his progress into the semifinal and I can imagine Kei hitting a few good returns against Novak who doesn't have the same dangerous serve as Marin does. Kei can come back if he goes a break or set down because I think he is playing quite solid tennis right now and it's quite likely that it's gonna carry him a long way in this match. It just doesn't feel like Nole wins this in 3 sets if he even wins it and the same about Kei who doesn't feel like he can win in 3. So 2.10 on over 3.5 sets is not bad at all.

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Juan Martin Del Potro (-2.5 sets) to beat Rafa Nadal at 7.55 with Pinnacle

Just got the feeling this will be a nightmare for Rafa when Juan Martin is playing such tennis as he is right now. Only Big John could trouble Juan Martin because of his serve but once he got a read on the Big John serve he obliterated the american and I don't think Rafa will have mutch to ask for this time if Juan Martin goes berserk here. Rafa had his fair share of troubles last match and it's just gonna get worse now. Juan Martin can gain some revenge from last seasons US open semi if he plays the tennis he has throughout this tournament. Could be a good shout this one so I have to make a run for it.

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3 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Juan Martin Del Potro (-2.5 sets) to beat Rafa Nadal at 7.55 with Pinnacle

Just got the feeling this will be a nightmare for Rafa when Juan Martin is playing such tennis as he is right now. Only Big John could trouble Juan Martin because of his serve but once he got a read on the Big John serve he obliterated the american and I don't think Rafa will have mutch to ask for this time if Juan Martin goes berserk here. Rafa had his fair share of troubles last match and it's just gonna get worse now. Juan Martin can gain some revenge from last seasons US open semi if he plays the tennis he has throughout this tournament. Could be a good shout this one so I have to make a run for it.

I also think Del Potro will do it and finally beat Rafa as it is some time since he has beaten him in a Grand slam. And i fancy Del Potro to beat Rafa at decent odds

 

Rafael Nadal vs Juan Martin Del Potro 

Over 40.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Del Potro to win 5/4 paddy power

Del Potro to win 3-2 4/1 paddy power

Del Potro to win serves most aces and least double faults 7/1 paddy power 

Del Potro wins and Tie break in the first set 7/1 paddy power 

Del Potro to lose the first set and win the match 4/1paddy power

 

I also fancy Osaka to beat Madison Keys 7/4 paddy power

Also in the Mixed Doubles final, Jamie Murray and Bethany Mattek Sands to beat Nikola Metkic and Alicja Rosolska 4/5 paddy power

Edited by owenclass

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16 hours ago, CSanders22 said:

I fancy Del Potro if he's feeling up to it. Haven't been too impressed with Nadal and think Del Po's power will trouble Nadal similar to how Thiem did. So if Del Po can serve well he should at least take a set or two. Still searching for the value odds.

but you still believe Nadal will win?? i've always been Nadal fan, but i have my doubts in this match. i think the same you said, his game here hasn't impress me that much. 

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30 minutes ago, Uriel18 said:

but you still believe Nadal will win?? i've always been Nadal fan, but i have my doubts in this match. i think the same you said, his game here hasn't impress me that much. 

No I think Del Po will win unless he has a bad service game. His power can win points against Nadal serve and he is hard to break. Might follow leaf and go for a 3 set win for Del Po. 

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Kei Nishikori vs Novak Djokovic

Kei Nishikori comes to this point after beating Cilic in a very close and long match, but he won the points when it mattered. Even with his fighting spirit, he'll need to improve his serve if he wants to beat Djokovic in his 3rd semifinal at the US Open. On the other hand, Nole won easily against Millman in 3 sets. He looks in great form and this will be his 11th semifinal at this tournament. They've played 16 times with Nishikori winning only twice. I don’t think there will be too many games in this match, their games haven’t been really close and it seems to be pretty comfortable for Djokovic to beat him.

Pick: under 35.5 games @ 1.961 (2/10) at Pinnacle

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Well, alright then, the Djokovic result leaves me at  +11.1pts with two matches to go. Not bad, not great, but I'll take that, a profit is a profit and it just adds to the good season. As for the finals, I can't really see any bets that I'd like to take. Naomi Osaka has a chance against Serena if she doesn't choke, but that's a big if and I'm not sure that you can bank on it. Meanwhile, the surface is such that Djokovic should be able to beat JMDP if he plays like he did against Nishikori. That was basically a flawless performance and, while JMDP is going to get much more from his serve, I don't see him out-powering Djokovic over five sets. Good luck if you're diving in, I'm just going to save my profits and move on, there are many nice weeks still waiting for us this year. :ok

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