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Have to say watched a few matches today in the girls, as I find these are the matches that are not cut and dried as the mens. Some players Ive never seen before playing good stuff, Kanepi played really well, had Halep running all over the shop. Kalinskaya another young player, played really well but just came up against Goerges in a better mindset than the previous Goerges, but the standard in the tennis very good when you actually watch these players that you never consider as having a chance against the bigger names.

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Benoit Paire vs Dennis Novak

Paire is 56th and Novak is 140 in the ranking. However, it won’t be an easy match. Paire has had a weak season compared to the expectation, while Novak is coming up and it seems his having a good level. In his past performances, Novak showed his talent. On the other hand, Paire hasn’t been eliminated in the first round of the US Open. It seems he’s the best option considering that he has played five sets matches in this tournament.

My pick is Over 37.5 games @1.83 5 units at VIP-IBC

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I might as well post this already though.

Jason Kubler (+3.5) to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.83 with Paddy Power

Jason Kubler was the big winner for me on the first day, as he brought in some very nice odds in the most comfortable manner possible. It is clear that one shouldn't overestimate that win, as RBA was nowhere near his best, but I still find it hard not to fancy the talented Australian against Fritz, who was lucky to get past Zverev in a match that came down to fitness and willpower. Kubler has already had enough practice facing big serves on the Challenger tour and I'd say that he's actually the better player of the two overall, so I'm happy to back him on the +3.5 games line here. Unless he breaks down physically, I don't see Fritz winning any sets by more than a single break.

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Filip Krajinovic to beat Matthew Ebden at 1.80 with Pinnacle

Filip is getting better and better and has shown signs of life both against Robin Haase and Taylor Fritz who he did beat. I think there are chances Filip is going to be just as good as he's been lately if not better. There's nothing bad really to write about Matthew but I just think he comes up short in most rallies if he doesn't get his first serve working and Filip has shown before that he can deal with big servers.

Ricardas Berankis (+2.5 sets) to beat Hyeon Chung at 2.15 with Pinnacle

Ricardas hasn't got any form to show for but neither does Hyeon so I think Hyeon can drop a set just because he mixes good efforts with bad efforts right now and the record Hyeon has in US open is not excellent yet so until he shows he can do as in Aussie open again I'm gonna oppose him.

Stefanie Voegele to beat Monica Puig at 2.35 with Pinnacle

Both players retired in their respective last match but I think Monicas injury was more of a concern than Stefanies and Stefanie won their last meeting just before Connecticut in Cincinnati qualies in straight sets quite convincingly so I think Stefanie is closer to the win here.

Noah Rubin to beat Mikhail Kukushkin at 1.87 with Pinnacle

An inspired homeplayer with a good enough game to beat John Isner can beat Mikhail who hasn't shown the best of form since he reached the Eastbourne semis and he hasn't played a match on hardcourt since he won Irving challenger and lost in first round of Miami so Noah should have the advantage and possibly nick the win. Saying possibly because you can never be entirely sure about it. Taking my chances with the american seems as the best option but we'll see how it goes.

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I have been messing around trying to take in-play bets in tennis matches. Two problems I see with this approach.

1) The bookmakers are giving stinking prices.

2) They are front running the bets.

A big problem is lag. If you are watching satellite TV, you are at least 8 seconds behind a fast stream like bet365, and probably 12 seconds behind someone actually at the game, who has an incredible advantage. So for me in-pay is just a BS activity.

 

Onto the tennis. Boiling day in NY so 1st set winners will have a huge advantage. Nobody should be playing in that temp. It's 33 degrees Celsius and 60% humidity, which is  hot, so people not used to it will fold up.

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Novak to beat  Paire at 2.30  with Unibet (UPDATE: Lost 6-7(6) 6-3 5-7 6-7(5)

Update: Prediction issues: not to consider the poor serve of Novak and mainly, he's mental lability... In the first and last sets, he served for the set at 5-4 and loose both sets in the tie-break. In the third set, he had 4-2 and have lost the set with 5-7. He won the second set.

As any match above 2.00 this has for sure an elevated risk.

However I consider it, having (on the paper) the lowest "high risk", among today matches with the odds above  2.00.  This is the reason that I propose it.

So for the punters that "always" play the odds above 2.0, this is one of the main choice of today.

1. Even he is not an extraordinary player, Novak D. (140 ATP) is not a bad player, he is relatively young (24) and he plays well on all the surfaces. Despite this, on the hard courts he didn't play yet this year with a solid player.
However he performed well at Wimbledon against some good players.
 
 US Open Round Result H A
24.08.   Novak D. - Giustino L. Q-3R 7-5, 6-4 1.23 3.96
23.08.   Novak D. - Vatutin A. Q-2R 6-0, 6-4 1.30 3.33
21.08.   Novak D. - Halys Q. Q-1R 6-1, 6-3 1.85 1.88
  Bundesliga - men Round Result H A
12.08.   Novak D. - Bellotti R. 9K 6-2, 6-3    
  Portoroz challenger Round Result H A
06.08.   Setkic A. - Novak D. 1R 6-4, 6-2 3.18 1.32
  Kitzbühel Round Result H A
01.08.   Lajovic D. - Novak D. R16 6-2, 6-4 1.35 3.16
30.07.   Novak D. - Rodionov J. 1R 6-4, 0-6, 6-1 1.81 1.98
  Bundesliga - men Round Result H A
22.07.   Novak D. - Heller P. 3R 6-0, 6-4    
20.07.   Novak D. - Pancaldi L. 2R 6-2, 7-6    
15.07.   Novak D. - Woerner P. 1R 6-4, 6-1    
  Wimbledon Round Result H A
07.07.   Raonic M. - Novak D. 3R 7-65, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 1.07 8.30
04.07.   Novak D. - Pouille L. 2R 6-4, 6-2, 68-7, 3-6, 6-2 3.77 1.27
02.07.   Novak D. - Polansky P. 1R 6-2, 6-3, 7-67 1.55 2.44
28.06.   Novak D. - Bachinger M. Q-3R 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 1.98 1.79
26.06.   Novak D. - Young D. Q-2R 6-2, 7-5 1.87 1.86
25.06.   Novak D. - Gerasimov E. Q-1R 6-2, 6-2 1.75 2.00
  Poprad challenger Round Result H A
21.06.   Kolar Z. - Novak D. QF 6-2, 6-2 2.33 1.54
20.06.   Novak D. - Neuchrist M. R16 6-2, 6-4 1.21 3.98
19.06.   Novak D. - Rosol L. 1R 6-1, 7-5 1.56 2.29
  Caltanissetta challenger Round Result H A
16.06.   Munar Clar J. - Novak D. SF 3-6, 7-5, 7-66 1.28 3.44
15.06.   Novak D. - Vesely J. QF 3-6, 7-64, 7-64 2.51 1.48
13.06.   Novak D. - Caruso S. R16 6-3, 6-4 2.04 1.70
11.06.   Novak D. - Moroni G. 1R 66-7, 6-2, 7-64 2.53 1.47
 
2.
After Wimbledon, Paire (ATP 56, 29 years) beat on hard only Ferrer (that has "an age" and is out of form) and Donaldson (that has some issues with his form too).
The defeat against Struff is the main indication of Paire current level...Paire also comes here with no match in the last 8 days, and with a single match in the last 13 days...
 
  Winston Salem Round Result H A
20.08.   Struff J. - Paire B. 1R 7-65, 6-3 2.18 1.67
  Cincinnati Round Result H A
15.08.   Goffin D. - Paire B. 2R 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 1.43 2.79
13.08.   Paire B. - Ferrer D. 1R 6-2, 6-2 1.62 2.29
  Toronto - Masters Round Result H A
09.08.   Nadal R. - Paire B. 2R 6-2, 6-3 1.09 7.43
06.08.   Paire B. - Donaldson J. 1R 6-3, 6-4 2.02 1.78
  Washington Round Result H A
01.08.   Baghdatis M. - Paire B. 1R 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 1.79 2.00
  Hamburg Round Result  

Paire has some problems to engage on a long effort on court, so for him the short points with good serves and 1-2 forehands is a must for this match, especially when he has in front a "full of energy" player like Novak.

So for Paire is a must to take the first set, and to try to take in a row, the second one too....(I say this, looking of his poor performances in the last set of his last matches) You can compare his situation, with the last sets of Novak...

Viewing this, probably, a long match, can slowly go on Novak direction...

The main risk of this bet, is that we didn't see this summer season, Novak playing on hard with a player at least at Paire's level. All we know is that he plays well at Wimbledon and he beat some low level players on hard too, in this summer season.

---

Let's see the reality...

...

 

Edited by alexmarius

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53 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Filip Krajinovic to beat Matthew Ebden at 1.80 with Pinnacle

Filip is getting better and better and has shown signs of life both against Robin Haase and Taylor Fritz who he did beat. I think there are chances Filip is going to be just as good as he's been lately if not better. There's nothing bad really to write about Matthew but I just think he comes up short in most rallies if he doesn't get his first serve working and Filip has shown before that he can deal with big servers.

Ricardas Berankis (+2.5 sets) to beat Hyeon Chung at 2.15 with Pinnacle

Ricardas hasn't got any form to show for but neither does Hyeon so I think Hyeon can drop a set just because he mixes good efforts with bad efforts right now and the record Hyeon has in US open is not excellent yet so until he shows he can do as in Aussie open again I'm gonna oppose him.

Stefanie Voegele to beat Monica Puig at 2.35 with Pinnacle

Both players retired in their respective last match but I think Monicas injury was more of a concern than Stefanies and Stefanie won their last meeting just before Connecticut in Cincinnati qualies in straight sets quite convincingly so I think Stefanie is closer to the win here.

Noah Rubin to beat Mikhail Kukushkin at 1.87 with Pinnacle

An inspired homeplayer with a good enough game to beat John Isner can beat Mikhail who hasn't shown the best of form since he reached the Eastbourne semis and he hasn't played a match on hardcourt since he won Irving challenger and lost in first round of Miami so Noah should have the advantage and possibly nick the win. Saying possibly because you can never be entirely sure about it. Taking my chances with the american seems as the best option but we'll see how it goes.

The Berankis part is off to a good start but Kukushkin is blowing Rubin away. 

Edited by neilovan

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Miedwiediew to beat Tsitsipas at 2.23 with Pinnacle

Miedwiediew is on fire in contrast to Tsitsipas .. I don't know why he is a underdog . Danił beat Stefanos 2:1 in Miami this year ,now he is better form so odds 2.23?? In Miami was 1.78 .. I see big value in this tip. 

Edited by Rypcio

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Aside from Kubler...

Daria Gavrilova (+4.5) to beat Viktoria Azarenka at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Not sure what this hype is all about, as we haven't seen vintage Azarenka for quite a while now and she wasn't all that splendid in the first round. Gavrilova will be a big step up from Kuzmova, especially in terms of consistency, so I fancy her to cover this line more often than not. I liked her performance against Sabalenka last week.

Garbine Muguruza (-5.5) to beat Karolina Muchova at 2.00 with BoyleSports

Going against Muchova for the second time, her dream run really should end here. Muguruza was in a fabulous form in the first round and the Czech has absolutely no experience with this kind of matches, so I can't see her replicating the fight she produced against sub-par Yastermska on Monday.

Gilles Simon (+2.5 sets) to beat Milos Raonic at 1.73 with Paddy Power

Gilles Simon pleasantly surprised me on Monday, while Raonic was just kinda meh against Berlocq, so I'd say that there's every chance of the Frenchman getting something from this one, especially since the surface isn't particularly quick. His counter-punching skills are still there. I suppose you could also back Simon outright or have a bet on there being four of five sets, but I somehow irrationally feel that this is the right bet from that selection.

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7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Aside from Kubler...

Daria Gavrilova (+4.5) to beat Viktoria Azarenka at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Not sure what this hype is all about, as we haven't seen vintage Azarenka for quite a while now and she wasn't all that splendid in the first round. Gavrilova will be a big step up from Kuzmova, especially in terms of consistency, so I fancy her to cover this line more often than not. I liked her performance against Sabalenka last week.

Garbine Muguruza (-5.5) to beat Karolina Muchova at 2.00 with BoyleSports

Going against Muchova for the second time, her dream run really should end here. Muguruza was in a fabulous form in the first round and the Czech has absolutely no experience with this kind of matches, so I can't see her replicating the fight she produced against sub-par Yastermska on Monday.

Gilles Simon (+2.5 sets) to beat Milos Raonic at 1.73 with Paddy Power

Gilles Simon pleasantly surprised me on Monday, while Raonic was just kinda meh against Berlocq, so I'd say that there's every chance of the Frenchman getting something from this one, especially since the surface isn't particularly quick. His counter-punching skills are still there. I suppose you could also back Simon outright or have a bet on there being four of five sets, but I somehow irrationally feel that this is the right bet from that selection.

I also fancy Gavrilova to beat Azarenka as she has had a better season

Also i fancy Verdasco to beat Murray 7/4 paddy power, as i feel that he will have too much against a player who has not played many matches since his comeback a few months ago

And what do you think of Giorgi to beat Venus at 5/4 paddy power as i feel she is playing better at the moment

Edited by owenclass

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@owenclass I've no idea about Giorgi - Williams, depends on who's going to have more luck painting the lines.

For Thursday:

Jelena Ostapenko (vs. Townsend) + Diego Schwartzman (vs. Munar) at 1.79 with Bet365

I was a bit surprised that Townsend managed to get past the first round given the conditions, but Ostapenko should just be too strong for her with her easy power and better movement in the second. Meanwhile, Schwartzman is just miles above Munar and the Spaniard might feel the effects of the five-setter against Bemelmans as well, so there's that.

Fabio Fognini (-1.5 sets) to beat John Millman at 2.04 with Sbobet

Fognini clowned around a bit as expected against Mmoh, but he got the job done easily enough in the end and this might be a repeat of that. One can't really back Fognini to beat anyone 3-0, but Millman doesn't seem to be in any shape or form to seriously trouble the Italian right now.

Alex De Minaur to beat Francis Tiafoe at 2.36 with Pinnacle

This looks like a complete coin-flip to me, so going with the higher price, not much else to be added honestly. It's nice that Alex De Minaur won their only previous meeting though.

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Medvedev D. - Tsitsipas S.

two amazing young talents very closely matched neither of which knows when they're beaten.

this is the Russian's 7th game in a week and I still believe the Greek's successful year will have taken it's toll.

taken together I'm going for a correct score punt.

Tsitsipas to win 3-2 @6.00 with Bet365

:ok

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Borna Coric vs Carballes Baena

Coric 15/7 on hard courts this year and 2/4 recently would seem way way overpriced against a claycourter like Baena who is really no mug on hard courts. He is 3/4 this year and most importantly 3/4 in current form. Coric has no major weapons and thrives on consistency during rallies. I really think Baena can hold his own comfortably against him. Coric 1/14 is a clear depiction of a piss-take. And just like they heard me, a price slash happens this minute, now Coric 1/12. This match really has the potential to drag for some considerable length considering that their only meeting many years ago ended in a tight 3 setter on clay. Verdict. over 30games in total 10/10

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CzechPunter it would be great if you could put a line (an update with a different color) for each predicted match in your initial post to explain what do you think  it went wrong...

Also on the good predictions, if you could add a short update regarding if everything was as you have predicted or you have seen additional things.

Of course, if this is not a big effort for you. Thanks in advance.

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Kubler now injured. I'm not going to do that @alexmarius. First, I already do that sometimes with injuries and even other things. Second, I am unable to watch every single match I bet on, i.e. I'd have to make explanations up. Third, there's nothing important to report in the vast majority of cases apart from the guy playing badly/choking.

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I think your pre-play break downs are more than sufficient Czech and widely appreciated.

Kubler injury looked bad on first viewing but he walked it off, I do feel Fritz had the upper hand in the match but you never know.

Watching Murray and Verdasco right now and can't decide whose playing well, both inconsistant.  I already lost going for Giorgi although the in-play odds were too good.

Taking some Teichmann at 4.9 on Betfair to bt Kanepi

Purely on the odds, if Kanepi plays as well as she did vs Halep she should win but you never know if she can maintain that form so with the odds I think its worth a punt.

 

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On 27/08/2018 at 11:40 AM, CSanders22 said:

I'm going to start posting some of my picks. My knowledge and research is limited so very happy to receive feedback or criticism.

I have a couple picks I want to lay but will wait till after the first round Isner, Thiem and Serena. Isner is hard to oppose on hard courts but the last few matches I saw from him were poor and he was broken easily. Thiem is just so inconsistant that I like to oppose him when not on clay and Serena I still think is far from the top and will crash out against a plucky/fighter opponent.

My first round bets so far;

Paire bt Novak 1.66 Betfair

I'm a sucker for always backing Paire and so I've gone for him at 1.66, Paire has the quality to easily take this match but there is always the temperament cloud hanging over him and a 5 setter could be a worry. However i'm sticking with him.

Rafael Nadal v David Ferrer - 3rd Set Game Handicap
Rafael Nadal (-2.5) - 2.1 Betfair

I think Ferrer is winding down now and I certainly feel this will be an easy 3-0 for Nadal. That third set could only need one break but I think Nadal will break often. Ferrer's serve has not been his strong point over his career and I don't think he has it in him to break Nadal.

Maximilian Marterer v Kei Nishikori - Match Odds
Maximilian Marterer - 6.8 Betfair
I just like these odds. Max can cause Kei some issues and I feel Kei hasn't had the best of times on hard recently. I see Max doing well against Kei. Should probably add in a handicap to this one as ultimately Kei will probably win but I think Max will take a set at least.
 
That's mine so far. Along with a 20 pick Acca for fun.
 

 

Paire won... Nadal void and Max was destroyed. Mixed start but something to build on. I did well with Edmund in play but not so well with Giorgi. Hopefully will pick up some more decent bets later this week.

Good luck All

 

Edited by CSanders22

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On 28.08.2018 at 8:12 PM, Rypcio said:

Miedwiediew to beat Tsitsipas at 2.23 with Pinnacle

Miedwiediew is on fire in contrast to Tsitsipas .. I don't know why he is a underdog . Danił beat Stefanos 2:1 in Miami this year ,now he is better form so odds 2.23?? In Miami was 1.78 .. I see big value in this tip. 

Guys whst is wrong with you ? Why nobody bet this ? Why odds get higher before the match ? I don't understand that all but I know Miedwiediew win 3:1 and make me happy €.€

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Sasnovich A. - Kasatkina D.

Sasnovich to win @2.62 with Bet365

Sasnovich to win 2-1 @6.00 with Unibet

Sasnovich seems to be flying under the radar as she's been playing great tennis all the way back to Wimbledon. Coming back from a set down to demolish Bencic was another fine performance.

Kasatkina's run up has been nowhere near as good and had a real scare against Babos.

I know I know H2H blah blah but I prefer recent form to H2H and in this case the bookies have it wrong.

Good luck all :ok

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