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12 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Shapopalov vs Aliassime

I clearly recall Shapovalov's interview after beating Edmund in the first round of queens Club where he was praised for his very high work rate that had brought the dramatic increase in his play. He said, if you think I work hard you really need to meet my friend and mentor Auger Aliassime. "He is what I call an endless workhorse, an epitome of perfection. I look up to him because I want to be like him. He will certainly govern the world one day" From that day I kept looking for this raw talent borne out of Africa whose name the interviewer was having a torrid time pronouncing.

The head to head stands at 1-0 Shapovalov. I guess that was then; this is now where the most anticipated match of the FA cup of tennis lies a few hours away. It has to be said that Shapovalov has currently lost his shine but is still there as the favorite and deservedly so. They are best of friends and double partners and I just hope that the last revelation does not delete the competitive edge of this great match up. Aliassime played his qualifying rounds perfectly despatching everything in sight in straights and conserving energy for the main event. This should be really good first round match. verdict: Aliassime to win; over 38.5 games.

was thinking about taking him as well .Thank you for the breakdown.Good luck to us

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Have to say watched a few matches today in the girls, as I find these are the matches that are not cut and dried as the mens. Some players Ive never seen before playing good stuff, Kanepi played really well, had Halep running all over the shop. Kalinskaya another young player, played really well but just came up against Goerges in a better mindset than the previous Goerges, but the standard in the tennis very good when you actually watch these players that you never consider as having a chance against the bigger names.

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Benoit Paire vs Dennis Novak

Paire is 56th and Novak is 140 in the ranking. However, it won’t be an easy match. Paire has had a weak season compared to the expectation, while Novak is coming up and it seems his having a good level. In his past performances, Novak showed his talent. On the other hand, Paire hasn’t been eliminated in the first round of the US Open. It seems he’s the best option considering that he has played five sets matches in this tournament.

My pick is Over 37.5 games @1.83 5 units at VIP-IBC

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I might as well post this already though.

Jason Kubler (+3.5) to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.83 with Paddy Power

Jason Kubler was the big winner for me on the first day, as he brought in some very nice odds in the most comfortable manner possible. It is clear that one shouldn't overestimate that win, as RBA was nowhere near his best, but I still find it hard not to fancy the talented Australian against Fritz, who was lucky to get past Zverev in a match that came down to fitness and willpower. Kubler has already had enough practice facing big serves on the Challenger tour and I'd say that he's actually the better player of the two overall, so I'm happy to back him on the +3.5 games line here. Unless he breaks down physically, I don't see Fritz winning any sets by more than a single break.

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Filip Krajinovic to beat Matthew Ebden at 1.80 with Pinnacle

Filip is getting better and better and has shown signs of life both against Robin Haase and Taylor Fritz who he did beat. I think there are chances Filip is going to be just as good as he's been lately if not better. There's nothing bad really to write about Matthew but I just think he comes up short in most rallies if he doesn't get his first serve working and Filip has shown before that he can deal with big servers.

Ricardas Berankis (+2.5 sets) to beat Hyeon Chung at 2.15 with Pinnacle

Ricardas hasn't got any form to show for but neither does Hyeon so I think Hyeon can drop a set just because he mixes good efforts with bad efforts right now and the record Hyeon has in US open is not excellent yet so until he shows he can do as in Aussie open again I'm gonna oppose him.

Stefanie Voegele to beat Monica Puig at 2.35 with Pinnacle

Both players retired in their respective last match but I think Monicas injury was more of a concern than Stefanies and Stefanie won their last meeting just before Connecticut in Cincinnati qualies in straight sets quite convincingly so I think Stefanie is closer to the win here.

Noah Rubin to beat Mikhail Kukushkin at 1.87 with Pinnacle

An inspired homeplayer with a good enough game to beat John Isner can beat Mikhail who hasn't shown the best of form since he reached the Eastbourne semis and he hasn't played a match on hardcourt since he won Irving challenger and lost in first round of Miami so Noah should have the advantage and possibly nick the win. Saying possibly because you can never be entirely sure about it. Taking my chances with the american seems as the best option but we'll see how it goes.

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I have been messing around trying to take in-play bets in tennis matches. Two problems I see with this approach.

1) The bookmakers are giving stinking prices.

2) They are front running the bets.

A big problem is lag. If you are watching satellite TV, you are at least 8 seconds behind a fast stream like bet365, and probably 12 seconds behind someone actually at the game, who has an incredible advantage. So for me in-pay is just a BS activity.

 

Onto the tennis. Boiling day in NY so 1st set winners will have a huge advantage. Nobody should be playing in that temp. It's 33 degrees Celsius and 60% humidity, which is  hot, so people not used to it will fold up.

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Novak to beat  Paire at 2.30  with Unibet (UPDATE: Lost 6-7(6) 6-3 5-7 6-7(5)

Update: Prediction issues: not to consider the poor serve of Novak and mainly, he's mental lability... In the first and last sets, he served for the set at 5-4 and loose both sets in the tie-break. In the third set, he had 4-2 and have lost the set with 5-7. He won the second set.

As any match above 2.00 this has for sure an elevated risk.

However I consider it, having (on the paper) the lowest "high risk", among today matches with the odds above  2.00.  This is the reason that I propose it.

So for the punters that "always" play the odds above 2.0, this is one of the main choice of today.

1. Even he is not an extraordinary player, Novak D. (140 ATP) is not a bad player, he is relatively young (24) and he plays well on all the surfaces. Despite this, on the hard courts he didn't play yet this year with a solid player.
However he performed well at Wimbledon against some good players.
 
 US Open Round Result H A
24.08.   Novak D. - Giustino L. Q-3R 7-5, 6-4 1.23 3.96
23.08.   Novak D. - Vatutin A. Q-2R 6-0, 6-4 1.30 3.33
21.08.   Novak D. - Halys Q. Q-1R 6-1, 6-3 1.85 1.88
  Bundesliga - men Round Result H A
12.08.   Novak D. - Bellotti R. 9K 6-2, 6-3    
  Portoroz challenger Round Result H A
06.08.   Setkic A. - Novak D. 1R 6-4, 6-2 3.18 1.32
  Kitzbühel Round Result H A
01.08.   Lajovic D. - Novak D. R16 6-2, 6-4 1.35 3.16
30.07.   Novak D. - Rodionov J. 1R 6-4, 0-6, 6-1 1.81 1.98
  Bundesliga - men Round Result H A
22.07.   Novak D. - Heller P. 3R 6-0, 6-4    
20.07.   Novak D. - Pancaldi L. 2R 6-2, 7-6    
15.07.   Novak D. - Woerner P. 1R 6-4, 6-1    
  Wimbledon Round Result H A
07.07.   Raonic M. - Novak D. 3R 7-65, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 1.07 8.30
04.07.   Novak D. - Pouille L. 2R 6-4, 6-2, 68-7, 3-6, 6-2 3.77 1.27
02.07.   Novak D. - Polansky P. 1R 6-2, 6-3, 7-67 1.55 2.44
28.06.   Novak D. - Bachinger M. Q-3R 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 1.98 1.79
26.06.   Novak D. - Young D. Q-2R 6-2, 7-5 1.87 1.86
25.06.   Novak D. - Gerasimov E. Q-1R 6-2, 6-2 1.75 2.00
  Poprad challenger Round Result H A
21.06.   Kolar Z. - Novak D. QF 6-2, 6-2 2.33 1.54
20.06.   Novak D. - Neuchrist M. R16 6-2, 6-4 1.21 3.98
19.06.   Novak D. - Rosol L. 1R 6-1, 7-5 1.56 2.29
  Caltanissetta challenger Round Result H A
16.06.   Munar Clar J. - Novak D. SF 3-6, 7-5, 7-66 1.28 3.44
15.06.   Novak D. - Vesely J. QF 3-6, 7-64, 7-64 2.51 1.48
13.06.   Novak D. - Caruso S. R16 6-3, 6-4 2.04 1.70
11.06.   Novak D. - Moroni G. 1R 66-7, 6-2, 7-64 2.53 1.47
 
2.
After Wimbledon, Paire (ATP 56, 29 years) beat on hard only Ferrer (that has "an age" and is out of form) and Donaldson (that has some issues with his form too).
The defeat against Struff is the main indication of Paire current level...Paire also comes here with no match in the last 8 days, and with a single match in the last 13 days...
 
  Winston Salem Round Result H A
20.08.   Struff J. - Paire B. 1R 7-65, 6-3 2.18 1.67
  Cincinnati Round Result H A
15.08.   Goffin D. - Paire B. 2R 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 1.43 2.79
13.08.   Paire B. - Ferrer D. 1R 6-2, 6-2 1.62 2.29
  Toronto - Masters Round Result H A
09.08.   Nadal R. - Paire B. 2R 6-2, 6-3 1.09 7.43
06.08.   Paire B. - Donaldson J. 1R 6-3, 6-4 2.02 1.78
  Washington Round Result H A
01.08.   Baghdatis M. - Paire B. 1R 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 1.79 2.00
  Hamburg Round Result  

Paire has some problems to engage on a long effort on court, so for him the short points with good serves and 1-2 forehands is a must for this match, especially when he has in front a "full of energy" player like Novak.

So for Paire is a must to take the first set, and to try to take in a row, the second one too....(I say this, looking of his poor performances in the last set of his last matches) You can compare his situation, with the last sets of Novak...

Viewing this, probably, a long match, can slowly go on Novak direction...

The main risk of this bet, is that we didn't see this summer season, Novak playing on hard with a player at least at Paire's level. All we know is that he plays well at Wimbledon and he beat some low level players on hard too, in this summer season.

---

Let's see the reality...

...

 

Edited by alexmarius

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53 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Filip Krajinovic to beat Matthew Ebden at 1.80 with Pinnacle

Filip is getting better and better and has shown signs of life both against Robin Haase and Taylor Fritz who he did beat. I think there are chances Filip is going to be just as good as he's been lately if not better. There's nothing bad really to write about Matthew but I just think he comes up short in most rallies if he doesn't get his first serve working and Filip has shown before that he can deal with big servers.

Ricardas Berankis (+2.5 sets) to beat Hyeon Chung at 2.15 with Pinnacle

Ricardas hasn't got any form to show for but neither does Hyeon so I think Hyeon can drop a set just because he mixes good efforts with bad efforts right now and the record Hyeon has in US open is not excellent yet so until he shows he can do as in Aussie open again I'm gonna oppose him.

Stefanie Voegele to beat Monica Puig at 2.35 with Pinnacle

Both players retired in their respective last match but I think Monicas injury was more of a concern than Stefanies and Stefanie won their last meeting just before Connecticut in Cincinnati qualies in straight sets quite convincingly so I think Stefanie is closer to the win here.

Noah Rubin to beat Mikhail Kukushkin at 1.87 with Pinnacle

An inspired homeplayer with a good enough game to beat John Isner can beat Mikhail who hasn't shown the best of form since he reached the Eastbourne semis and he hasn't played a match on hardcourt since he won Irving challenger and lost in first round of Miami so Noah should have the advantage and possibly nick the win. Saying possibly because you can never be entirely sure about it. Taking my chances with the american seems as the best option but we'll see how it goes.

The Berankis part is off to a good start but Kukushkin is blowing Rubin away. 

Edited by neilovan

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Miedwiediew to beat Tsitsipas at 2.23 with Pinnacle

Miedwiediew is on fire in contrast to Tsitsipas .. I don't know why he is a underdog . Danił beat Stefanos 2:1 in Miami this year ,now he is better form so odds 2.23?? In Miami was 1.78 .. I see big value in this tip. 

Edited by Rypcio

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Aside from Kubler...

Daria Gavrilova (+4.5) to beat Viktoria Azarenka at 1.83 with Pinnacle

Not sure what this hype is all about, as we haven't seen vintage Azarenka for quite a while now and she wasn't all that splendid in the first round. Gavrilova will be a big step up from Kuzmova, especially in terms of consistency, so I fancy her to cover this line more often than not. I liked her performance against Sabalenka last week.

Garbine Muguruza (-5.5) to beat Karolina Muchova at 2.00 with BoyleSports

Going against Muchova for the second time, her dream run really should end here. Muguruza was in a fabulous form in the first round and the Czech has absolutely no experience with this kind of matches, so I can't see her replicating the fight she produced against sub-par Yastermska on Monday.

Gilles Simon (+2.5 sets) to beat Milos Raonic at 1.73 with Paddy Power

Gilles Simon pleasantly surprised me on Monday, while Raonic was just kinda meh against Berlocq, so I'd say that there's every chance of the Frenchman getting something from this one, especially since the surface isn't particularly quick. His counter-punching skills are still there. I suppose you could also back Simon outright or have a bet on there being four of five sets, but I somehow irrationally feel that this is the right bet from that selection.

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