US Open 2018

[liquidglass]

12 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

 

Dayana Yastremska to beat Karolina Muchova at 1.53 with Paddy Power

Karolina Muchova was another player that I quite liked in the qualifiers, but she faces a much sterner test than Teichmann here in the form of the in-form Yastremska, who really has impressed me on quite a few occasions in this season. What I really appreciate about her is the fighting spirit that she brings with herself, every single time that I saw her she was fighting to the end, with her recent match in New Haven being a splendid example of that if I remember correctly. She's one of the younger talents that I've been tracking in this season and she's generally been playing a level above Muchova, so, despite the qualifying success, I think that the Czech is going to come up well short here.

 

While I think you may be right in the pick, I think that they are players of equal potential especially with Muchova leading the h2h 1-0 and very much in form. Well.....maybe Yastremska just looks a bit more polished at this level and has despatched better opposition recently especially if the goerges match is a true reflection of her current ability level. Good luck!

[yogg]

Robredo T. - Tsitsipas S.

Tsitsipas is a sensational player, no doubt about it and he's had a great season too but how much has it taken out of him?

After all, he's only just turned 20 and his early exit at Cincinnati may have been an indicator.

So he may find himself under pressure from the off against an up to speed Robredo.

I think the Greek will win but a punt on a 1st set tiebreak @4.00 with Bet365 appeals to me.

[liquidglass]

In my humble opinion, it would be a sweeping statement to say "she threw" the match. The girl has not even grown up enough to work for enough food for herself talk less of throwing away. In a big tourney such as New Haven she would only have been trying her hardest best to arrive at victory. Not even the best of players can afford to throw matches away in a tournament of that magnitude. Goerges in recent times has been nothing short of world class material. You really have to earn victory from those sort of players even if they are at their tiredest low. Gritt is the difference between the old Goerges and the new one. It is from a similar fabric that the new Sabalenka has emerged from - doggedly and annoyingly clutch. This brings me to my second observation; To be successful in this indulgence, you must be pokerfaced at all times devoid of emotion. People sometimes get emotional when a player clearly lets them down and they now somehow find themselves chosing a pick which is more from a payback to the offending player. All players will always be guilty of coniving against us at one point or another. Fact. The only person that can disappoint you is you who made a bad pick. She would not have be seen to throw the match away had you been on Goerges.

I also think it is the same case with Stephens. Surely she has to be allowed a flop here or there especially judging from the alarming consistency by which she now appears at the business end of these big tournaments. Going against her at home in the first round with a player of no repute would seem a disastrous call just even pondering over the potential matchup. Sloane has a lazy style that has effectively lands most opponents in handcuffs bar a few. I just do not think Rodina has the credentials to get over that bar. Time will tell if she is able to shut my big mouth.

[liquidglass]

Shapopalov vs Aliassime

I clearly recall Shapovalov's interview after beating Edmund in the first round of queens Club where he was praised for his very high work rate that had brought the dramatic increase in his play. He said, if you think I work hard you really need to meet my friend and mentor Auger Aliassime. "He is what I call an endless workhorse, an epitome of perfection. I look up to him because I want to be like him. He will certainly govern the world one day" From that day I kept looking for this raw talent borne out of Africa whose name the interviewer was having a torrid time pronouncing.

The head to head stands at 1-0 Shapovalov. I guess that was then; this is now where the most anticipated match of the FA cup of tennis lies a few hours away. It has to be said that Shapovalov has currently lost his shine but is still there as the favorite and deservedly so. They are best of friends and double partners and I just hope that the last revelation does not delete the competitive edge of this great match up. Aliassime played his qualifying rounds perfectly despatching everything in sight in straights and conserving energy for the main event. This should be really good first round match. verdict: Aliassime to win; over 38.5 games.

[South_African_Punter]

2 hours ago, yogg said:

Robredo T. - Tsitsipas S.

Tsitsipas is a sensational player, no doubt about it and he's had a great season too but how much has it taken out of him?

After all, he's only just turned 20 and his early exit at Cincinnati may have been an indicator.

So he may find himself under pressure from the off against an up to speed Robredo.

I think the Greek will win but a punt on a 1st set tiebreak @4.00 with Bet365 appeals to me.

Hehe, I'm actually considering Tsitsipas to win his quarter. A sensational talent!

Edited August 27, 2018 by South_African_Punter

[vuviks]

Thanks all guys for your hard work. 

Last week didn't watch any tennis game, but now it's time. Based on your thoughts and my feelings I decided to go with double:

Dmitrov @2.1x [email protected] at WilliamHill

I see that Vavrinka is coming back, but don't think he is ready for 4-5sets, this is why I "backing" Dmitrov as I see 50/50 game, but if Dmitrov will win First or even second set, I can't see Vavrinka will continue same level for 4th set...

Ruud is good youngster, and if he will keep his qualification form, he should beat Pella, who have no game practice recently.

I like Troicki @3.25 or over in this game, because I now Troicki can play very good tennis, but his mentality it's not strong, but I am going because Sandgren is not like he was in AO, so it's blind bet for me, as don't know what to expect from Troicki. 

Don't trust Giorgi, so like over but afraid she can lost it in straight sets, so will go with +5.5 @1.9 at William Hill for Whitney.

Good luck for all.

P.S. My favourites to win USO Tsitsipas and Svitolina.

What a great start for me! Once again teenager with no fight spirit let me down to be on truck...Giorgi was nothing special, but Whitney....this f** woman's sport!!! Have a good night everyone who fallow UO...I going to bed...LOL

 

Edited August 27, 2018 by vuviks
Bet settled

[liquidglass]

Simona halep Vs Kaya Kanepi

This one here is a product of market force where the possible outcome of this match is clearly determined by the digital movement of the odds. Those who understand the dynamics of market forces will know that in most situations odd movements are a more dependable tool for pointing to the outcome of any match than any stats will dare to do. That also will depend on the interpreter of these movements. It is true to say that they do not always turn out to be 100% accurate but in most cases if the trace factor is dependable, should return over 80% accuracy. This has worked for me with over an 80% success rate using my own statistical analysis on the price movement. the conclusion clearly says Kanepi is a very strong positive in this match up. the question is to what extent? This is where judgemental wisdom is applied. In my opinion Kanepi is positive even to the stage of calling a mild upset alert. Kanepi to win a set is also good at 7/10 still. However, I am going to make what should be a brilliant investment call @ Kanepi over 6.5 total games

[liquidglass]

25 minutes ago, vuviks said:

Thanks all guys for your hard work. 

Last week didn't watch any tennis game, but now it's time. Based on your thoughts and my feelings I decided to go with double:

Dmitrov @2.1x [email protected] at WilliamHill

I see that Vavrinka is coming back, but don't think he is ready for 4-5sets, this is why I "backing" Dmitrov as I see 50/50 game, but if Dmitrov will win First or even second set, I can't see Vavrinka will continue same level for 4th set...

Ruud is good youngster, and if he will keep his qualification form, he should beat Pella, who have no game practice recently.

I like Troicki @3.25 or over in this game, because I now Troicki can play very good tennis, but his mentality it's not strong, but I am going because Sandgren is not like he was in AO, so it's blind bet for me, as don't know what to expect from Troicki. 

Don't trust Giorgi, so like over but afraid she can lost it in straight sets, so will go with +5.5 @1.9 at William Hill for Whitney.

Good luck for all.

P.S. My favourites to win USO Tsitsipas and Svitolina.

 

Really like the Dimitrov choice. Real balls i'd say against one of the most popular first round choice of public opinion.

[Larkin22]

I'm going to start posting some of my picks. My knowledge and research is limited so very happy to receive feedback or criticism.

I have a couple picks I want to lay but will wait till after the first round Isner, Thiem and Serena. Isner is hard to oppose on hard courts but the last few matches I saw from him were poor and he was broken easily. Thiem is just so inconsistant that I like to oppose him when not on clay and Serena I still think is far from the top and will crash out against a plucky/fighter opponent.

My first round bets so far;

Paire bt Novak 1.66 Betfair

I'm a sucker for always backing Paire and so I've gone for him at 1.66, Paire has the quality to easily take this match but there is always the temperament cloud hanging over him and a 5 setter could be a worry. However i'm sticking with him.

Rafael Nadal v David Ferrer - 3rd Set Game Handicap

Rafael Nadal (-2.5) - 2.1 Betfair

I think Ferrer is winding down now and I certainly feel this will be an easy 3-0 for Nadal. That third set could only need one break but I think Nadal will break often. Ferrer's serve has not been his strong point over his career and I don't think he has it in him to break Nadal.

Maximilian Marterer v Kei Nishikori - Match Odds

Maximilian Marterer - 6.8 Betfair

I just like these odds. Max can cause Kei some issues and I feel Kei hasn't had the best of times on hard recently. I see Max doing well against Kei. Should probably add in a handicap to this one as ultimately Kei will probably win but I think Max will take a set at least.

 

That's mine so far. Along with a 20 pick Acca for fun.

 

 

 

 

[WinningTipster]

3 picks for US Open BERTENS-4 GAMES OVER Kr. PLISKOVA @ 1.6 pinnacle Bertens with title last week is clearly in a very good form. A level above Pliskova anyways. KERBER-GASPARYAN 2:0 SETS @ 1.42 pinnacle Gasparyan after an year off struggles with her game. Kerber should be motivated after taking some time off after Wimbledon. 1/2 amount on STEPHENS-6 GAMES OVER RODINA @ 1.59 pinnacle 1/2 amount on STEPHENS RODINA 2:0 SETS @ 1.31 pinnacle Stephens is one of the top-3 favorites to win the US Open.

[Uriel18]

13 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Didn't JMDP have his wrist troubles quite long ago and it's over now?

with injuries you never know.. Nadal started many tournaments alright and in the middle of it the mess came out. Injuries surprise..

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, losingpunter said:

to even say that goerges is a world class material is an abuse of the word world class. she played ridiculously against a 17 yr old in Moscow open and add to it was almost going to be defeated by another 17 yr old had she kept her nerve in the dying set. her service which was her strong point is no longer there in past few tournaments

This is an indication that your knowledge in the sport is somewhat suspect. What then is your idea of a world class tennis player? Will you restrictively confine it to the top 2 or 3 in the world. I would say certainly not. One  described as such is one who can hold their own certainly among the very best in the world. Goerges is that player. One who more than often maintains her consistency in winning matches she is supposed to win. Goerges is that player. One who no one will bat an eylid wondering what went wrong with the others if she suddenly won a slam. Goerges is that player.

I am somewhat baffled by your unsubstantiated and pointless arguement in reference to her playing bad against a 17year old and being almost defeated by another 17year old. What has age got to do with the price of milk my friend? Playing badly is not synonymous with results. In the end she won. Ask Mr Morinho, he will brief you better. Even after all is said and done, if you know your tennis well should't those 17year olds and alikes like the ones you mentioned be the most feared in the sport today? If a player is going to be really progressive everyone expects to see those signs by 17years old. It is the reason whywe do not refer to talents such as Anisimova as mere 17year olds. 

Players are human and have rigorous and hectic schedules. They are also by default always certain to run into a bad patch at some point. The length of this bad patch could vary from player to player. If your idea of a world class player is "one who always wins when I bet on them" then may I suggest you reboot your thought process!

Edited August 27, 2018 by liquidglass

[dave5perth]

1 hour ago, losingpunter said:

to even say that goerges is a world class material is an abuse of the word world class. she played ridiculously against a 17 yr old in Moscow open and add to it was almost going to be defeated by another 17 yr old had she kept her nerve in the dying set. her service which was her strong point is no longer there in past few tournaments

Did you watch semi with Goerges v Sabalenka? very high standard of tennis from both.

[alexmarius]

I propose a combination with small odds (Update : LOST)

 

P.Lorenzi·K.Edmund                      2   1.10

J.Del Potro·D.Young                      1   1.08

S.Vickery·E.Svitolina                     2   1.10

O.Jabeur·A.Barty                           2   1.20

C.Giorgi·W.Osuigwe                      1   1.17

---

Total Odd: 1,83   with Unibet 

 

 

 

Edited August 28, 2018 by alexmarius

[Torque]

30 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

This is an indication that your knowledge in the sport is somewhat suspect. What then is your idea of a world class tennis player? Will you restrictively confine it to the top 2 or 3 in the world. I would say certainly not. One  described as such is one who can hold their own certainly among the very best in the world. Goerges is that player. One who more than often maintains her consistency in winning matches she is supposed to win. Goerges is that player. One who no one will bat an eylid wondering what went wrong with the others if she suddenly won a slam. Goerges is that player.

I am somewhat baffled by your unsubstantiated and pointless arguement in reference to her playing bad against a 17year old and being almost defeated by another 17year old. What has age got to do with the price of milk my friend? Playing badly is not synonymous with results. In the end she won. Ask Mr Morinho, he will brief you better. Even after all is said and done, if you know your tennis well should't those 17year olds and alikes like the ones you mentioned be the most feared in the sport today? If a player is going to be really progressive everyone expects to see those signs by 17years old. It is the reason whywe do not refer to talents such as Anisimova as mere 17year olds. 

Players are human and have rigorous and hectic schedules. They are also by default always certain to run into a bad patch at some point. The length of this bad patch could vary from player to player. If your idea of a world class player is "one who always wins when I bet on them" then may I suggest you reboot your thought process!

I've always thought that rankings are more a measure of consistency than ability. If you're a top 100 tennis player then you can play tennis - there's no doubt about that. But how often can you bring your best level to the court that's the question. A good example would be Gulbis - he's arguably world class in terms of ability as he's beaten pretty much all the best players. He's not world class in terms of ranking though, because he's inconsistent and often loses when he should win.

[CzechPunter]

@alexmarius Thanks for the contribution, certainly an interesting accumulator, but please try posting the bets before the matches start next time, not 19 minutes in .

[alexmarius]

I know sorry...

I have just arrived at home...the matches started at  past :10...but even so I posted it a little bit too late

I also put the same accumulator before for me.

[alexmarius]

 

Impressive your prediction CzechPunter  "Teichmann to beat  Jakupovic at 1.67" ....6-3 6-0

Edited August 27, 2018 by alexmarius

[CzechPunter]

I'm just going to say something for the record here, of course Vikhlyantseva should've taken one of the three set points against King in the first set, but what happened in the tie-break was an absolute travesty of the highest order. Allowing an off-court medical timeout at *5-4 during a tie-break should NOT be allowed regardless of who's playing. She looks to be in pain even now, she might not complete the match, but you should be forced to lose the tie-break if you need such a long medical timeout.

[DrO]

I didn`t get it - who was injured? King or Vikhlyantseva ?

[Torque]

King

[CzechPunter]

Vania King. She's playing really awful now, but Natalia looks shaken, no mental resilience there. Yeah, if she loses this, I'll be staying away from her for a very long time, this needs to be noted down.

[yogg]

Kyle's got cramp. 

2-1 down in sets. 

3-0 down in the fourth set. 

[Larkin22]

Kyles odds were still hitting 1.3 when he clearly can barely move. Ridiculous value for in-play bettors.

[yogg]

1 hour ago, losingpunter said:

Playboy is getting a taste of stan

he's back!!! 3-0 

[CzechPunter]

A crazy, crazy day, but I guess I'm sort of happy with the results.

[matrixman]

Hello everyone.I'm a little late to the party here but if he wins tonight Medvedev at 40-1 could still be available to win his quarter.GUY is red hot winning WS  .The only question would be fitness having had to play on Sat.We will.see vs Donskoy

[CzechPunter]

Good luck with that, but the conditions are really hot, I don't see him lasting.

[matrixman]

12 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Shapopalov vs Aliassime

I clearly recall Shapovalov's interview after beating Edmund in the first round of queens Club where he was praised for his very high work rate that had brought the dramatic increase in his play. He said, if you think I work hard you really need to meet my friend and mentor Auger Aliassime. "He is what I call an endless workhorse, an epitome of perfection. I look up to him because I want to be like him. He will certainly govern the world one day" From that day I kept looking for this raw talent borne out of Africa whose name the interviewer was having a torrid time pronouncing.

The head to head stands at 1-0 Shapovalov. I guess that was then; this is now where the most anticipated match of the FA cup of tennis lies a few hours away. It has to be said that Shapovalov has currently lost his shine but is still there as the favorite and deservedly so. They are best of friends and double partners and I just hope that the last revelation does not delete the competitive edge of this great match up. Aliassime played his qualifying rounds perfectly despatching everything in sight in straights and conserving energy for the main event. This should be really good first round match. verdict: Aliassime to win; over 38.5 games.

was thinking about taking him as well .Thank you for the breakdown.Good luck to us

[owenclass]

The US Open is always interestng to bet on and I'm glad I did overs on the Murray Duckworth match