US Open 2018

[CzechPunter]

[Uriel18]

Hey! with Djokovic's winning in Cincinatti, would you say he can win the US open too?? or do you think we'll see a tough tournament?? what about Nadal's chances??

[four-leaf]

35 minutes ago, Uriel18 said:

Hey! with Djokovic's winning in Cincinatti, would you say he can win the US open too?? or do you think we'll see a tough tournament?? what about Nadal's chances??

Good question, hard to tell how it's all going to pan out. I think Rafa can win US open as well as Djoker. I don't belive in Roger but maybe in Juan-Martin DP.

[CzechPunter]

Hi there! I'd say that he's the favourite now, but not a safe favourite by any stretch. He was in danger in quite a few matches in Cincy, I wouldn't fancy backing him at around 3.50.

[Uriel18]

6 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Good question, hard to tell how it's all going to pan out. I think Rafa can win US open as well as Djoker. I don't belive in Roger but maybe in Juan-Martin DP.

really?? Del Potro??  i'll bet more on Nadal chances. Yes, i dont trust that much in Federer either. 

[CzechPunter]

Draws here: https://www.usopen.org/en_US/draws/index.html

[yogg]

Womens US Open

Elise Mertens To Win The 2nd Quarter @ 13.00 with Bet365

Elise is having a really good year including a semi final at the Aussie Open and has no one to fear in her quarter having beat Sloane Stephens a couple of weeks ago.

Good luck all 

[South_African_Punter]

US Open - Men

Winner - Rafael Nadal @ 4.00 with SportingBet.

[South_African_Punter]

3 hours ago, yogg said:

Womens US Open

Elise Mertens To Win The 2nd Quarter @ 13.00 with Bet365

Elise is having a really good year including a semi final at the Aussie Open and has no one to fear in her quarter having beat Sloane Stephens a couple of weeks ago.

Good luck all 

Hmmm...I'd be worried opposing Stephens. She usually picks it up on the big stage (final French Open) and will probably be a little more motivated since it's in her home country. But good luck all the same.

Edited August 25, 2018 by South_African_Punter

[yogg]

Mens US Open - Player To Win 2nd Quarter

Stan Wawrinka @ 11.00 with PaddyPower

Stan has an amazing record at Flushing Meadows and I believe he's peaked perfectly with only Nadal and Federer (just) beating him recently. Stan is back!!!

Mens US Open Winner

Stan Wawrinka each way (half the odds to reach the final) @ 41.00 with WilliamHill
Good luck all 

Edited August 26, 2018 by yogg

[yogg]

Mens US Open - Coric B. vs Mayer F.

Under 28.5 games @2.24 with Pinnacle

Class act and rising star Borna Coric should get the job done here against Florian Mayer whose rather lost his way.

[CzechPunter]

Alright, here we go with the final Grand Slam of the season and, before I begin, I'd just like to wish good luck to everyone who's going to be betting on it!

Now - I haven't had a long post in a while and this is a good excuse to have one, so here we go. This season has been quite juicy so far, especially if compared with the disaster that went by the name of 2017, so I'm going to be slightly more ambitious with the first round than I usually am. There are many interesting matches and I have a good feeling about quite a few of them, so I'm going to go for all kinds of bets in the very first round and no outrights at all. If I was asked for some tips, however, I'd have Nadal and Halep as the favourites and Bertens and Tsitsipas as the dark horses. Let's hope all goes well and that there will be a profit to be collected before the second round begins.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Aljaz Bedene at 1.90 with Ladbrokes

The first bet that I'm going to go for is on the man who's made me so many points a few weeks back. That was on clay and this is on hard, but Nikoloz is reasonably universal and the fact is that he should be in a much better position going into this than Bedene, who's had pretty much zero match practice in recent times and who might be here just to collect the check. The last point might be stretching things a bit, but really, one needs to have some matches under the belt given the long match format and Bedene doesn't have that, so opposing him at odds that aren't even all that skinny makes a lot of sense to me.

Jil Belen Teichmann to beat Dalila Jakupovic at 1.67 with BetVictor

The one player that I really liked in the qualifiers was Jil Belen Teichmann and I think that she has every chance of getting a first round win as well. Jakupovic is one of those players that have just dodged having to qualify - and I have to tell you that I'm not sure that she would've been able to go through three rounds of tennis if she was asked to do that honestly. She made a lot of great results during the grass court seasons, with wins over Mertens and even Osaka, but, since then, she's done little of note. And, even more importantly, her last outing ended with her retiring in the middle of the second set. It's the same case as with Bedene then, with us getting two ways of winning here - either Teichmann beats her fair and square or Jakupovic just shows up for the check. I'm more than happy to chance that.

Dayana Yastremska to beat Karolina Muchova at 1.53 with Paddy Power

Karolina Muchova was another player that I quite liked in the qualifiers, but she faces a much sterner test than Teichmann here in the form of the in-form Yastremska, who really has impressed me on quite a few occasions in this season. What I really appreciate about her is the fighting spirit that she brings with herself, every single time that I saw her she was fighting to the end, with her recent match in New Haven being a splendid example of that if I remember correctly. She's one of the younger talents that I've been tracking in this season and she's generally been playing a level above Muchova, so, despite the qualifying success, I think that the Czech is going to come up well short here.

Fernando Verdasco to beat Feliciano Lopez at 1.66 with Ladbrokes

As much as one might like these two guys, it's fair to say that this match is going to be played in the twilight of their careers. That said, it seems to me that Lopez is losing his skills almost as quickly as Ferrer, while Verdasco still has a couple of good performances in himself, which is why I'm going to back him here. The big problem that I have with Lopez is that he seems to have lost a lot of endurance over the last year or two - and that is a tremendously important issue given that this match could go on for four or five sets.

Marco Cecchinato to beat Julien Benneteau at 1.67 with William Hill

Julien Benneteau is another player that's in the twilight of his career. I can't quite remember when exactly he wants to call it quits, whether it's this very US Open or it's one of those French tournaments at the end of the season, but that doesn't really matter. He was quite poor in Winston Salem and I'm not sure that he will be able to put up one last heroic performance. Cecchinato has almost no (or no) wins on hard courts, but he came close to getting some recently against much tougher and sharper players, so this is his chance - and, over five sets, he could even just outlast the Frenchman and win that way.

Vasek Pospisil to beat Lukas Lacko at 1.82 with Pinnacle 

Just a few months ago, I was ranting about how I don't like Pospisil in the singles and I was backing Bolt to win a set against him in one of the grass court tournaments, that much I remember. I haven't fallen in love with him since, don't get me wrong, but he has got some wins and some confidence back, while Lukas Lacko has been just moving around without soul in recent months. I was thinking about backing him against Zeballos in Winston Salem, but I dodged that bet and luckily so. Pospisil also has the home advantage here in a sense, so I'd have him as a somewhat bigger favourite than the odds suggest.

Jason Kubler to beat Roberto Bautista Agut at 4.33 with Ladbrokes

I haven't really covered any underdogs just yet, but here we go, I did manage to find one that I quite like in the form of Jason Kubler, who did really well in a couple of Challengers recently and who could find himself in a favourable spot against Roberto Bautista Agut, who didn't really play on American hard courts in the recent weeks. In fact, he hasn't played for more than a month now, with fitness issues troubling him the last time out. I reckon that he's sufficiently fit given that he's decided to show up, but Kubler is a good enough player to take advantage of any rustiness and I think that he'll be more than fired up for it given all the injury struggles he had in his career. He appears to be without pain now - and the odds for him to win a match against a presumably rusty opponent look tasty enough.

Jan-Lennard Struff (vs. Smyczek) + Agnieszka Radwanska (vs. Maria) at 1.95 with Paddy Power

Robin Haase (vs. McDonald) + Natalia Vikhlyantseva (vs. King) at 2.08 with Bet365

Aryna Sabalenka (vs. Collins) + Daria Gavrilova (vs. Sorribes Tormo) + Kiki Bertens (vs. Kr.Pliskova) at 1.93 with Bet365

Diego Schwartzman (vs. Delbonis) + Barbora Strycova (vs. Lao) + Fabio Fognini (vs. Mmoh) at 1.95 with Paddy Power

Backing a lot of reasonably big favourites isn't particularly difficult, but these picks aren't completely mindless, so there you go. Smyczek has been rather dreadful recently and I'm afraid that the end of his career might be near, Radwanska looked decent against much tougher opposition in recent weeks, Robin Haase has played himself into some solid form (and McDonald's desperate performance against Edmund doesn't inspire any confidence either), Vania King has played pretty much no successful singles in this season, Collins was desperately poor out there in recent weeks (I saw the match against Yastremska and I was shocked actually), Gavrilova nearly upset Sabalenka and SST is two steps down, Kr. Pliskova has been largely non-existent lately, etc. As always, it'd be a bit lucky to see all these guys deliver, but I'm hoping that we get only one letdown in this batch.

[four-leaf]

Ok, thanks for your input @CzechPunter and now I guess it's time for other members to contribute like myself, would be boring if the only thoughts and bets posted comes from you.

[four-leaf]

I will be backing you on Niko Basilashvili, he's interesting and Aryna Sabalenka should get the job done.

[four-leaf]

@CzechPunter have you seen John Millman play lately?

[bluemal]

On ‎20‎/‎08‎/‎2018 at 7:24 PM, Uriel18 said:

really?? Del Potro??  i'll bet more on Nadal chances. Yes, i dont trust that much in Federer either. 

Del Potro has had wrist trouble and Djokovic's in top half of draw which looks the easier passage through 

[four-leaf]

3 minutes ago, bluemal said:

Del Potro has had wrist trouble and Djokovic's in top half of draw which looks the easier passage through 

Didn't JMDP have his wrist troubles quite long ago and it's over now?

[four-leaf]

Casper Ruud to beat Guido Pella at 2.07 with Pinnacle

This is Caspers tournament, he's been awesome in the qualies as he's was properly challenged when he met Daniel Elahi Galan for example. I saw him on my mobile when he turned in a gritty performance in the end of first set against Daniel Elahi Galan and I was quite impressed by his baseline play. He got himself into good positions all the time and could hit winners from left and right. Very good performance throughout the qualies by Casper. Now he's up against Guido who hadn't played before Winston-Salem since he reached the Umag final. In Winston-Salem he played his first hardcourt match in a long while and it didn't work out too well unsurprisingly when he lost in straight sets versus Roberto CB. I don't think it's gonna work out any better against Casper who is playing his best tennis on hardcourts ever right now according to Norweigan media.

[bluemal]

seeming in last couple of weeks he's had trouble again 

[four-leaf]

Lloyd Harris (first set) to beat Gilles Simon at 1.847 at Pinnacle

Simon didn't play in Winston-Salem as he withdraw from the tournament so that's his preparation before this years US open and now he's up against the red-hot South African Lloyd Harris who is steamrolling most of his opponents right now. I think we'll see Simon maybe retireing after first set and Lloyd will win first set most likely.

Edited August 26, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

12 minutes ago, bluemal said:

seeming in last couple of weeks he's had trouble again 

Ok thanks for the info, and btw have you got any thoughts or bets to post please share.

[bluemal]

Djork to win easier half  of draw with  de Porto their too

[four-leaf]

3 minutes ago, bluemal said:

Djork to win easier half  of draw with  de Porto their too

Have you got any thoughts about the matches tomorrow? What do you think of the best @CzechPunter and I have posted? Is it anything to brag about?

[four-leaf]

Grigor Dimitrov to beat Stan Wawrinka at 2.21 with Pinnacle

I think Grigor wakes up and takes revenge from his Wimbledon loss to Stan. I still don't think Stan is completely back and it would be typical that he goes out in first round here after his nice performances in Toronto and Cincy. Very risky bet to be on Stan right now I feel and Grigor should be motivated enough to make a good run in US open.

[four-leaf]

Borna Coric/Florian Mayer under 29.5 games at 1.90 with Pinnacle

Florian seems like he's done and dusted and Borna should and probably will finish this in less than 30 games. Not mutch more to add other than the fact that Mayer hasn't played on hardcourt since february and comes to New York probably just to pick up his paycheck.

[four-leaf]

Claire Liu to beat Polona Hercog at 1.80 with Pinnacle

Claire did quite a match in Wimbledon when she lost 2-1 versus Angie Kerber and that could have been a winning performance against any other player and if she repeats that here she will win because Polona is usually invisible on hardcourts. Good chance for a first round win for Claire.

[CzechPunter]

@four-leaf Only against Thiem on clay. He's not losing in the first round though, it's just a question of how many games he's going to allow.

[four-leaf]

19 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

@four-leaf Only against Thiem on clay. He's not losing in the first round though, it's just a question of how many games he's going to allow.

I saw John Millman play versus Taro Daniel in Winston-Salem and he missed so many shots, made at least 30-40 unforced errors and you can say he put his errors in the front seat in that match. He also finished the match in the tie-break with an unforced error 1 or 2 meters away from the net when he struck the net as bad as he could. He was very error-strewn against Taro and had no timing in his shots and it was just dreadful and painful to watch when he struck the ball long or wide in almost every rally. I suspect it will continue but I won't be betting against him until he faces most likely Fabio Fognini in second round. He'll be out in straight sets versus Fabio and hopefully it will be some good odds on Fabios set handicap.

Edited August 27, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Hopefully more thoughts and bets will be posted about separate matches tomorrow because it would be boring if only myself and you @CzechPunter contributes. It's only me and you @CzechPunter who mostly writes about tennis on this forum and that's boring. @yogg post more matchbets please.

[liquidglass]

Osuigwe Whitney vs Giorgi

This should be a very easy game for Giorgi or a cake walk as someone has once before described on this forum. Giorgi has had some good workouts on hardcourts recently and has maintained a good winning ratio beating people that she should normally beat but perhaps getting to no milestone of importance in all those victories. 

Giorgi in my opinion is an intresting vibrant and engaging player with her heavy groundstrokes and quickplay. She is also very regressive (A Player in orbit on a destination to nowhere) Lost recently to Bencic 6-4 6-4, prior to that, brushed aside by a mundane and insipid Keys and lost in a three setter to Kuzmova who really in my opinion is a player for the future. 

Whitney Osuigwe represents hope for the future of American tennis. She is the reigning ITF junior world champion and a former no1 junior in the world. Osuigwe also won the 2017 French Open to become the first American to win the girls' singles event in 28 years. She is currently 16yrs old and has been playing well recently to be worthy of mention. I expect her to improve a lot from her recent defeat to Bencic and play with more confidence and freedom against a clueless Giorgi. I will not go overboard here with anxiety. Verdict: over 19.5 total games. Good luck all!!

Edited August 27, 2018 by liquidglass