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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - July 30 - August 5

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3 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Taro Daniel to beat Jaume Munar at 2.05

Daniel has been on a very good run recently, notching up two wins in Gstaad, losing to Bautista-Agut in the quarterfinals. He has also played two matches in Kitzbuhel, winning easily against an out-of-form Struff and fatigued Laslo Djere. Munar also went out against Bautista-Agut in Gstaad, although he did take a set off him, unlike Daniel. In Kitzbuhel, he has beaten Hanfmann, however, he did drop a set, and then coasted to victory against an out-of-form Haase. However, the main deciding factor for me was that Daniel beat Munar only last year, 6-2 6-1, in Munar's home town. So I will back him in this match-up.

If I only had the guts to follow on this. Jaume is better than last year so I don't dare to go against an improved player.

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Kei Nishikori Win vs Denis Shapovalov
Shapovalov had come from a set down to win his last match and this might have taken a lot out of him.
Andy Murray Win vs Marius Copil
Murray is by far better player and he also won the last and only meeting between them. Backing Murray to reach the 1/4 finals

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Martin Klizan/Dusan Lajovic over 24.5 games at 2.13 with Pinnaclesports

They've met 3 times before and 2 of those times they played 3 sets with minimum 26 games all 3 times on clay and Martin owns a 2-1 record having won the last meeting in 2015 in their first and only until today ATP maindraw encounter and Martin won 2-1 and it was then it finished with 26 games. They're both good on clay and can play well on the surface and there's nothing suggesting this will finish in under 23 games so I think at least this will be 25 games and it almost requires a 3 set match to be played. All 3 previous matches today have ended after 2 sets so I think this one will likely end after 3 sets. Hopefully not a bad guess :hope

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11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yunseong Chung to beat John Wolf at 2.04 with Pinnacle

Two promising players meeting here, but I prefer Chung at the odds and given that he's been incredibly solid against players of Wolf's level results-wise so far this year. He isn't going to underestimate Wolf, so I'm not exactly sure what makes the American the favourite here.

Starting to follow u guys!!!! First pick wins!!!!!

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1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Martin Klizan/Dusan Lajovic over 24.5 games at 2.13 with Pinnaclesports

They've met 3 times before and 2 of those times they played 3 sets with minimum 26 games all 3 times on clay and Martin owns a 2-1 record having won the last meeting in 2015 in their first and only until today ATP maindraw encounter and Martin won 2-1 and it was then it finished with 26 games. They're both good on clay and can play well on the surface and there's nothing suggesting this will finish in under 23 games so I think at least this will be 25 games and it almost requires a 3 set match to be played. All 3 previous matches today have ended after 2 sets so I think this one will likely end after 3 sets. Hopefully not a bad guess :hope

2 out of 2!!!! Thanks!!!

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Ajla Tomljanovic/Madison Keys over 20.5 games at 1.90 with Pinnaclesports

Have already taken this bet on a higher total, over 21.5 games acctually, but I think this looks fairly reasonable also at a little lower odds but still good enough for a bet. They've met 3 times and two times it's ended with 3 sets. My feeling says Ajla wont give up so easily this time as she lost in straight sets in Wimbledon this summer to Keys and it ended under 20 games and why this total is only at 20.5 games is probably because of that match or it would have been a higher total. So far in San Jose Ajla has crushed qualifier Georgina Garcia Perez in first round and it came as no surprise but she played outstanding on serve as she didn't allow even one breakpoint. She looked like a woman on a mission to go far in this tournament. She's awarded with this rematch and Ajla has beaten Madison once before in 3 sets and this is another possible 3 set match between them without a doubt. Why their encounter in Wimbledon ended in 2 sets could be explained by the surface that suits Madison so well as she's won for example Birminghams grass tournament before, the tournament Petra Kvitova has won several times and other big names. Last season Madison came to Stanford the former venue of this tournament and got Caro Dolehide in first round and she started really slow and lost the first set. Now she hasn't played since Wimbledon and comes equally prepared as last season. Ajla is mutch better than Caro Dolehide and should be able to hold serve enough times for maybe a tie-break and perhaps even take a set as previous 2 of 3 times in this matchup.

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Denis Istomin (+2.0) to beat Nicolas Jarry at 1.98 with Pinnaclesports

I belive in Denis again. He was awesome yesterday when he easily dismantled the german Max Marterer but I play it safe this time and go for the +2 handicap since Nicolas is a really tricky customer and this surface is like bread and butter for him. He's hard to beat no doubt but Denis on a small handicap feels quite ok.

Edited by four-leaf

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Johanna Konta to beat Elise Mertens at 1.50 with Bet365

Only one straightforward pick for me today, but I have to fancy Konta in her current form. I suppose that Mertens shouldn't, in theory, be a great match-up for her if the Belgian could channel her inner Clijsters, but their match from Miami and Konta's recent crushes of Serena and Kenin suggest that she's a strong favourite in this one. I'm not sure about the handicaps, but I'm willing to play the moneyline.

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Denis Kudla/Andrey Rublev under 22.0 games at 2.11 

Going against Denis here only because of his late finishing at night. I don't think his serving will be on it's highest level and Rublev has a good return game so under 22 for me. 

Alex De Minaur to beat Andy Murray at 2.09 

Alex to win this only because Andy has no fitness enough for this match and he finished 3 am last match. He may have beaten Marius Copil but it should take it's toll.

Double with both bets at 4.26 with Pinnaclesports

 

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Andrey Rublev (-4.5) to beat Denis Kudla at 3.25 with Pinnaclesports

I think Andrey will get his chances for breaks as I can't imagine Denis concentration level to be at it's highest level when he will serve. But it remains to be seen if Denis has enough mental strenght to go for big shots and big serves again. Big risk taken here but it could be worth it.

Alex de Minaur (-1.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray at 3.61 with Pinnaclesports

Andy will have his hands full in this one probably. Hopefully he takes to the court and doesn't retire because I see that as something not to unlikely. I just think Alex will run Andy down or serve him out of the tournament in straight sets. Andy has already played three 3 set matches and it's a lot to cope with when you're started to comeback from injury. He was already tired after his first match in Eastbourne and now he's played so long matches this tournament that I really question his ability to focus on the important points.

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Cameron Norrie to beat Fabio Fognini at 2.07 with Pinnaclesports

 Cameron has played well for awhile now and should have no problems holding serve in this match. He hasn't surrendered a set in Los Cabos so far and is serving impressively. Fabio who blows hot and cold must keep focus here to be able to hang around and I do think he will do that but it's still gonna take something special from Fabio to win this when Cameron executes his game as well as he has been doing.

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Linette vs Vekic

Just a quick one i thought i'd quickly share before play resumes after the rain. Linette is currently 0-3 down to Vekic. Linette previously travelled some good miles from Nanchang half tired to play here in Washington. She also has qualifiers to play in Canada later on in the day which should be the priority concern than trying to play her way back into this match. Verdict: Vekic -6.5

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51 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

Linette vs Vekic

Just a quick one i thought i'd quickly share before play resumes after the rain. Linette is currently 0-3 down to Vekic. Linette previously travelled some good miles from Nanchang half tired to play here in Washington. She also has qualifiers to play in Canada later on in the day which should be the priority concern than trying to play her way back into this match. Verdict: Vekic -6.5

Which bookie are you using? I'm affraid I can't bet on this at Pinnacle now. To bad you didn't post before the match began.

Edited by four-leaf

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Even though the match isn't finished it still looks like Fabio Fognini is a little bit to good for Cam Norrie so next bet...

Henri Laaksonen (-3.5) to beat James Ward at 2.30 with Pinnacle

Henri beat Yibing Wu last time out and he did so convincingly without losing a service game. James Ward saved 6/7 breakpoints against world no.340 Roman Safiullin and that's not good enough to beat a guy like Henri and it's gonna take a lot for James not to drop serve more then once. So this looks like a match Henri should win without having mutch problems. James is not good right now and he should struggle big time here. Everytime James loses a match this season no matter where the opponent is ranked he loses often by atleast one double break and the same should happen here. He's losses this season have all come by at least 4 games to Jordan Thompson, Benjamin Bonzi, Ilya Ivashka, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Hiroki Moriya, Evan Furness, Harri Heliovaara, Filip Peliwo, Manuel Sanchez and more.

Edited by four-leaf

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • Bath 9.10    Little Boy Blue    5-1 Bet365
    • Hey Ralphie I think Club Wexford is also meant to be a selection in the same race, mate.
    • Wednesday 26/06/2019 Carlisle 3:30 LAMLOON f/c. 13/2 stake = 10 pts. WIN
    • 5th - held up, ridden over 2f out, no impression, weakened over 1f out Asmund 14.00 Carlisle 1 Pt Win @ 4\11 (bog) Promising individual. 9/1, second of 8 in minor event at York (5f, good to soft) on debut 12 days ago, clear of rest. Sets a good standard.   
    • 1st @ Evs - prominent, bumped 1st, led 14th, comfortably Potterman 15.10 Ffos Las 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog) Three-time winner over hurdles who found improvement when making winning chase debut at Worcester (20f, good) earlier this month. Further progress on the cards in this sphere and is the one to beat.  Simply Beautiful 21.00 Naas 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog) Lightly-raced filly. 11/2, excellent second of 16 in maiden at Navan (10f, good to soft) 18 days ago. Stable in good form. Sets a good standard. 
    • 18.30 Naas - Powersville - 1 Pt Win @ 7\1 Bet365
    • Kempton 18.50   NARALSAIF   25/1 Bet365
    • First one ran OK but faded out of it. Midnight Foile did what was expected and This Breac looks to have gone at the game. Skinflint will surely pick up a race though. Ballyknock Cloud should have finished in the first 3 but got hampered at a crucial stage by the faller and he stayed on well again. Certainly not saying he would have won but that certainly cost him a place which was frustrating. Could be money lent with him though.
    • Bath, 20:40, Freckles, 5/2 b365 
    • Parlay at 5.22 with Betfair After some thinking I've decided to go for this parlay. Miomir Kecmanovic to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.80 Can't see any way Ugo turns around and suddenly plays good tennis again right now so I have to give Miomir a try prematch. Benoit Paire to beat (-1.5 sets) Victor Troicki at 2.90 I don't get it here, what's up with the price? Benoit ranked 32, Victor 193, they met one time before and it was in Stuttgart 2017 on grass ofcourse and Benoit won 6-4 6-4 so what's changed since then? Benoit has become better with two titles this season on clay. Can't see how he's supposed to lose a set here. Victor got outclassed in the Surbiton challenger final by Dan Evans recently and I don't see why Benoit couldn't do the same. Victor isn't exactly playing on top level anymore even if he reached the Surbiton final.
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