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owenclass

The Open Championship

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Contenders (betfair)

Dustin Johnson
Last five Opens (most recent last): 32/12/49/9/54

World ranked number one, arrives with scintillating recent form under his belt and just falling short of a second US Open title. Boasts plenty of good links form and fared best in the Open amidst terrible weather in 2011. Has twice fallen away after strong starts since but evidently has the tools for this major.

Rickie Fowler
Last five Opens: MC/2/30/46/22

Runner-up at Hoylake in 2014 and has gone close in all four majors, most recently when second at the Masters. Creativity and prowess in wind make him a perfect fit for the Open and played well again on links last week. The one caveat - doesn't win nearly enough for a player of his calibre.

Justin Rose
Last five Opens: MC/23/6/22/54

Four times a winner in the last nine months and relentlessly consistent on the PGA Tour. Surprisingly ordinary Open record, never bettering fourth place as an amateur in 1998, given wider links form. Promising warm-up with four rounds of 67 or better for ninth at Gullane.

Rory McIlroy
Last five Opens: MC/1/-/5/4

Four-time major champion, including the Open at Hoylake in 2014. Showed world-beating form when winning at Bay Hill in March but he's struggling for consistency and missed the cut at the US Open. Chances around a links largely hinge on the weather, given a poor record in strong winds. Well beaten in Ireland last time, largely due to a cold putter.

Tommy Fleetwood
Last five Opens: -/MC/MC/MC/27

Winner of last year's Race to Dubai and arrives with high hopes after finishing runner-up at the US Open. Has the perfect combination of ballstriking excellence and links experience for an Open, which make previous failures to impact this major inexplicable. One of the home favourites, regardless of two poor results since Shinnecock Hills.

Jon Rahm
Last five Opens: -/-/-/59/44

Rapidly emerging power-hitter with the potential to dominate in the years ahead. Three times a winner in the last six months and arrives off promising top-fives in Rolex Series events. Little impact in the Open to date but has won an Irish Open on a links and coped well with Ballyliffin last time.

Jordan Spieth
Last five Opens: 44/36/4/30/1

Led from start to finish at Royal Birkdale last year for a third major title but Spieth arrives for his title defence under something of a cloud, having failed to win since. Defied similar doubts before the Masters with a fast-finishing third but has struggled since, missing his first major cut since 2014 at the US Open.

Justin Thomas
Last five Opens: -/-/-/53/MC

World number two and reigning PGA champion. Prolific and consistent in the States but eighth place in the recent Open de France was first achievement of any note in Europe. Fell away badly after strong starts in the last two Opens and yet to prove he's mastered links golf. A big name worth opposing.

Brooks Koepka
Last five Opens: MC/67/10/-/6

Very high-class American bomber who retained his US Open title at Shinnecock Hills last month, despite losing the first half of the season to a wrist injury. Earned plenty of European experience as a novice and has already registered two Open top-tens. Chance.

Henrik Stenson
Last five Opens: 2/39/40/1/11

Every inch a tournament specialist, breaking his majors duck with a historic performance at Royal Troon in 2016, having previously finished top-three on four occasions. His extremely accurate long game will be a particularly useful asset around Carnoustie. Top-six at the Masters and US Open and must be there or thereabouts again.

Tiger Woods
Last five Opens: 6/69/MC/-/-

Not seen at an Open since 2015, Tiger is finally back in contention for a fourth title having defied the pundits with a tremendous comeback from injury. Though not back to his totally dominant best, three top-fives on the PGA Tour suggest a win could be imminent. Contended throughout at Carnoustie in 1999 but was a distant 12th in the 2007 renewal here.

Sergio Garcia
Last five Opens: 21/2/6/5/37

Top-ten regular and arguably the best links exponent never to have lifted the Claret Jug. Lost a play-off at Carnoustie in 2007 and chased home McIlroy at Hoylake in 2014. Not quite at his best this term but winning a second major title remains perfectly realistic around a course that evidently suits.

Francesco Molinari
Last five Opens: 9/15/40/36/MC

Straight-hitting Italian in the form of his life. His last five events include winning the European Tour's flagship event, his first PGA Tour title by eight strokes and two second places. Open record is merely respectable but has shown plenty of links prowess in other events.

Alex Noren
Last five Opens: WD/-/-/46/6

One of the most improved players in world golf, frequently contending on the PGA Tour before returning to Europe for a tenth title at the Open de France. Has already won a top links event at the Scottish Open and last year's sixth at Birkdale was a personal best in this major. One to keep on side right now.

Patrick Reed
Last five Opens: -/MC/20/12/MC

America's hero from the last two Ryder Cups is now bringing his best form to the majors, breaking through at the Masters and contending strongly in the last three. Fearless competitor with a tremendous short game, who has enjoyed his past visits to Scotland. Contender.

Jason Day
Last five Opens: 32/58/4/22/27

Former PGA champion and four times a runner-up in majors, but has only enjoyed one good Open in six attempts, when incessant rain produced target golf conditions at St Andrews. Commands respect, nonetheless, with two prestigious PGA Tour wins under his belt already this year.

Tyrrell Hatton
Last five Opens: MC/MC/MC/5/MC

A must-consider for any Open having twice won the Dunhill Links. Still very much on the up, producing his best finish in a US major when sixth at Shinnecock Hills and maintained that form with consecutive top-20s in the Rolex Series. Needs to work on anger management, however.

Branden Grace
Last five Opens: 64/36/20/72/6

Top-rated candidate from a golfing nation that has landed seven major titles this century. Enjoyed by far his best Open to date at Birkdale last year when finishing sixth, adding to an impressive portfolio of high major finishes. That was overdue, given multiple wins around links or exposed courses.

Marc Leishman
Last five Opens: MC/5/2/53/6

Has shown vast improvement to become a frequent contender in the biggest events. Particularly loves the Open, with a St Andrews play-off defeat the closest of three top-six finishes. Landed two big PGA Tour titles in 2017 and went close again recently when runner-up at Colonial.

Paul Casey
Last five Opens: -/47/74/MC/11

Ultra-consistent and experienced but has surprisingly only contended once in this major, when third at St Andrews in 2010. Notched an overdue PGA Tour win at the Valspar Championship in March but has generally struggled to get over the line despite frequent opportunities and blew a big lead last time out.

 

 

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Open

I personally like players who have played well in the last week or two, the records of players winning the Open after playing the week before is pretty solid and my number one pick here is Justin Rose. He played well at the Scottish Open last week and has the perfect temperament for Carnoustie and the big occasion.

Outright: Justin Rose 2pts EW 16/1 bet365 (first 8)

At bigger prices I like the look of Matthew Fitzpatrick, he has had 5 top 30's in the last two months and could be worth betting in the Top Englishman market at a decent price.

Top Englishman: Matthew Fitzpatrick 2pts EW 14/1 PP (first 4)
Outright : 1pt EW 66/1 Bet365 (first 8)

Rickie Fowler has been threatening to bag one of these majors for sometime but something always seems to happen and he falls just short. I do like his chances this week but he's only 18/1 to win it outright compared with 9/1 for Top USA player. You cabn get 5 places with Betfair so thats the value bet for me.

Top USA Player : Rickie Fowler 2pts  EW 9/1 Betfair (first 5)

Cut Mark
The last two Opens here have been high scoring with the Cuts being at +4 or more. Early reports are that the course is bone dry and and while they should be able to hit it a long way i'm not sure thats such a good thing if you cant stop it running off into the rough, bunkers etc... Its 6/4 for +2 and less and 7/4 for +4 and over and i'm firmly in the higher bracket.

2pts Cut to be 146 or more 7/4 bet365

:ok

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Carnoustie is going to be an absolutely classic Open Championship - dry, firm and fast. Look for longer sorts, with immediate form and a top-level scrambling game. Fade shot-shape undoubtedly positive around here. 

Dustin Johnson 12/1

Sergio Garcia 33/1

Patrick Reed 40/1

Matthew Southgate 150/1

Stewart Cink 250/1 

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steve palmer tips

:t woods 3 pts ew 30/1, b grace 2.5 pts ew 40/1, m fitzpatrick 66/1 1.5 pts ew, m southgate 125/1 1 pt ew, g forrest 0.5 pt ew 500/1.

a noren to beat j day 5/6 3pts

fowler to beat spieth 5/6 3pts

rahm to beat thomas 4/5 2pts

all 72 holes

tanihara top japanese 1 pt ew 10/1

g forrest top scot 7/1 1pt

all amateurs to miss cut 17/10 1 pt 

e grillo top south american 1pt 5/6

southgate 1st round leader 1 pt ew 100/1

j rose to win 3 ball 11/8 1pt

Edited by waynecoyne

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Dustin Johnson first round leader 20/1 paddy power

Rickie Fowler first round leader 25/1 paddy power 

Rory Mcilroy first round leader 30/1 paddy power 

Jon Rahm first round leader 30/1 paddy power

Jordan Spieth first round leader 30/1 paddy power 

Tommy Fleetwood first round leader 33/1 paddy power

Patrick Reed first round leader 40/1 paddy power

Zach Johnson first round leader 55/1 paddy power

Edited by owenclass

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Xander Schauffele to win the Open Championship 7/1 paddy power

Kevin Kisner to win the Open Championship 8/1 paddy power 

Rory Mcilroy to win the Open Championship 18/1 paddy power

Tiger Woods to win the Open Championship 20/1 paddy power 

 

Hole in one in the final round 10/1 paddy power

A playoff 5/2 paddy power 

A three way player off 8/1 paddy power 

Edited by owenclass

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