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StevieDay1983

Final Predictions > Jul 15th

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The Final of the 2018 World Cup has been confirmed. France will go up against Croatia in a 4pm BST kick-off at the Luzhniki Stadium this Sunday afternoon. It's arguably the most one-sided international tournament final in terms of the odds since the 2004 European Championship when Greece played Portugal. France may be the firm favourites here but this Croatian team has shown their mentality is better than any nation at this competition. It could be more intriguing than we anticipate. Hit us with your predictions for this last game of this memorable tournament. :ok

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We have already lost finals and I assure you that France has a very big mind, a greater experience, we will be very difficult to beat. No extra time and less fatigue
3-1 for France, Giroud will finally score his goal

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11 hours ago, johny88 said:

any opinions / analysis of how odds will evolve until the last minutes before the game? 

will the favorite become even more favorite and the dog even more dog?

I think the odds on France will shorten too. It's a tall order for Croatia. They have been through so much and it's a question of whether they have enough left in the tank? I think they got fortunate last night. England really should have been 2-0 or even 3-0 up before Croatia equalised. You're looking at a different game then. I can see France being far more clinical and even though Croatia will fight until the bitter end I really can see France winning by a couple of goals. 2-0 or 3-1 is my bet.

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good analysis, I agree

For the third time in 20 years, France is in the final of a World Cup. This time, France came out of a complicated final phase against strong opponents. Argentina, Uruguay and finally a semi-final against Belgium. Against Belgium, France followed the plan prepared by their coach by blocking the Belgians. Able to quickly project forward, play compact and remain solid behind, France is a real team that can adapt to all systems and especially be dangerous to any team. France will win this final to forget the final of the 2016 Euro lost to Portugal two years ago.

 Croatia showed a lot less mastery in the game throughout its course to reach the final. impressive during the group stage, they showed some limits during the final phase. Unable to qualify after 90 minutes in all knockout games, they worried about their inconstancy. Against the English, they were unable to produce play during most of the game. all these prolongations with repetition (three prolongations on the last three matches of which two with a shoot-out at the end) Much more tired than the French, they also had a day of recovery in less. the Croatia team will have trouble against French defense. In attack the physical presence of Giroud and the speed of Mbappé may put them in trouble

 

I apologize in front of you for the bad English but I prefer to come on this site because the English are much better than us (the French) to bet

Edited by chris50

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Some similar haphazard number crunching for the last 10 finals as posted already for the 3rd place game.

Only 3 games saw >2.5 goals, West Germany losing 3-1 to Italy in 1982 and 3-2 to Argentina in 1986 and France beating Brazil 3-0 in 1998. Those games aside we've had 3 goalless draws (including the last 2 finals), 1 game with a single goal and 3 with 2. Average total goals were 1.9 and the average goal rush make up on the spreads was 22.3.

5 games were drawn, including the last 3 finals. There were the 3 0-0s and 2 1-1s. Only 2 went to penalties, 3 being won in extra time.

BTTS landed in just 4 of the 10 games.

The record of the 7 teams who had an extra day's rest is 2-5 and those teams who were taken to extra time/pens in the semis went 1-3. 

Cards wise, the average bookings make up for the last 10 games was 51.5. Most recent first, the bookings totals have been 40, 90, 30, 20, 65, 40, 90, 60, 50 and 30.

Just 6 goals were scored in the first half (31.58%) and 13 in the 2nd (68.42%). The 1st half has been the highest scoring on 2 occasions, the 2nd half on 4 with 4 ties.

3 games saw a goal (or more) in both halves, there were 6 half time 0-0s with 2 games seeing 1 goal before the break and the other 2 seeing 2.

The halftime/full time results (from the perspective of the winning team) have been as follows:

Draw - Draw x4
Draw - Win x3
Win - Win x2
Win - Draw x1

Edited by harry_rag
Correction to the sentence re extra day's rest and pens/ET

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Certainly, France has the better roster. Yes, on paper they should be favourites. However, odds of about 1.90 are a bit short for a World Cup final. I am going to dismiss the fact that Croatia has more play time as a factor. At this level and given the stakes these type of considerations are probably insignificant.

Both teams. I think, are going to be very careful and not risk much. This gives the the draw result, I believe, an increased likelihood. 

I think Croatia will win in extra time or in penalties. France has the better roster, but the momentum is with Croatia. In all three of the knockout matches, Croatia came from a goal down to qualify. This could be read as "when is their luck going to run out?", but I think it reflects focus, resolve and determination. 

The Bets:

Draw: 5 units

Draw / Draw (halftime / full time): 5 units

0-0 exact score: 1 unit

1-1 exact score: 1 Unit

Win Croatia in extra time:5 units

Win Croatia in penalties: 5 Units

Croatia to win outright: 10 units

Good luck to all in their bets.

 

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I'm looking at the offside markets and found these odds: Side with the most offsides 1.65 3.80 4.20. I think these are beautiful odds and should be taken. It's more of a coin flip in my book. Both sides hardly getting any offsides in the later stages: France 1 offside vs Croatia 3 in their last three games. I don't see either of them changing their winning ways and starting to put long balls forward or changing their formation.
I'm definitely putting some money on that market:
Side with the most offsides x @3.80 and 2 @4.20 with Unibet
Under 2.5 offsides @1.90 with Unibet

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding FIFA World Cup

Croatia have drawn their last 3 matches in FIFA World Cup.
France have won 88% of their last 8 matches in FIFA World Cup.
France are undefeated in their last 10 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Croatia are undefeated in their last 10 matches in FIFA World Cup.

You can find interesting 76 Football Betting Streaks for 15.07.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-15-07-2018-10444

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France vs Croatia

Finally, it's here! The 2018 World Cup Final. Did anyone even possibly consider that France would be playing Croatia in this 4pm BST kick-off at the Luzhniki Stadium today at the beginning of the tournament? I know I certainly didn't. I predicted France would be there but definitely not Croatia.

It's hard to see anything other than a France win here on paper but football isn't played on paper is it? Didier Deschamps has defied my negative opinions on him to get his side playing effective football as a team. It's not always been pretty but in Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann, N'Golo Kante, Raphael Varane, and Hugo Lloris they have one of the best spines in international football.

This will be the third World Cup Final the French have reached in the past 20 years. One win and one defeat in the previous two appearances has left mixed emotions. The nation is also seeking vengeance after the 2016 European Championship Final defeat to Portugal on home turf. Proof that when this side has been labelled favourites for a game before that it's not always gone as expected. It can be argued that this Croatia side is far more dangerous than that Portugal side of two years ago. The warning signs are there.

Croatia are looking to make history. It's a fairytale story for a nation born out of war and blood shed. Luka Modric himself a shining example of a boy who endured the toughest of childhoods as he was orphaned by conflict after his grandfather was gunned down by enemy fire. He somehow turned his life from such tragedy into something so great. Modric was not the only player in this team to be affected by the Bosnian War of 1992-1995. A number of players were displaced with their families including Ivan Rakitic who almost represented Switzerland had it not been for a conversation with former head coach Slaven Bilic.

A country that was only formed on 8th October, 1991, Croatia has punched above its weight. Its population of 4.5 million has already witnessed its national football team reach the Semi-Finals of the 1998 World Cup and now the Final of the 2018 World Cup. Its fans have named their team "the fiery ones" due to their resilient spirit and it would be naive to write them off.

I'm buzzing for this game. Either the team I predicted to win the tournament before it even began will be crowned world champions and it will be a new dawn for one of the most exciting football sides for generations with so much attacking and technically gifted talent. Even the great Spanish side of 2008-2012 didn't possess as much potential attacking flair as this French side. Or we will witness the landscape of international football change forever with the crowning of maiden world champions for the first time since 1998 and the second smallest nation to ever lift the trophy.

World Cup Finals are always tough to predict and this one is no different. The money appears to be going all behind France. I have a feeling that the comeback against England in the Semi-Final was Croatia's defining moment. Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. They have proved time and time again that they will fight until the end so it won't be easy but it just feels that this is the time for this brilliant France side. A narrow win for Deschamps and his men in what is likely to be quite a turgid game to be honest.

France to win @ 1.95 with Bet365

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.55 with MarathonBet

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According to the racing post 3 of the 5 left backs to have faced mbappe have been booked. Mark Langdon has tipped strinic to be shown a card and also the first card. I will buy his card minutes at 16 with spreadex. Market settles on time of cards (if two, times added together and second doubled).

I have also backed varane at 33/1 first goal scorer continuing the set piece/goals from centre halves trend.

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I've followed on Strinic card minutes at 16. As high as 17-21 with SPIN. Having read the RP preview it looks a reasonable bet though have to hope he doesn't just cop for an early yellow!

Edited by harry_rag
Clarifying price taken

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 Croatia coach Zlatko Dalic is prepared to make changes for Sunday's soccer World Cup final against France if some of his players have not recovered from their exertions in reaching football's biggest game.

Dalic's men have been forced to go through three periods of extra-time, against Denmark, Russia and England, to become the smallest country in 68 years to make the final.

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Strinic card minutes up to 19 now.

I've had a small bet on Griezmann to score in the 1st 10 minutes at 33/1 with PP

That price feels a little big and gives you a decent interest in France's early attacks. SPIN go 4-6 for a special that awards 100 points if he scores in the 1st 10 minutes which effectively gives you the option of backing the eventuality at 33/1 or laying at 24/1. Maybe a mug bet but at least there's clear value to be had one way or another and I'm not into laying 24/1 shots! :) 

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27 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Strinic card minutes up to 19 now.

I've had a small bet on Griezmann to score in the 1st 10 minutes at 33/1 with PP

That price feels a little big and gives you a decent interest in France's early attacks. SPIN go 4-6 for a special that awards 100 points if he scores in the 1st 10 minutes which effectively gives you the option of backing the eventuality at 33/1 or laying at 24/1. Maybe a mug bet but at least there's clear value to be had one way or another and I'm not into laying 24/1 shots! :) 

Griezmann is 4/1 fgs so your 33/1 looks decent harry, I fancy him to score but maybe later on. His goal minutes look quite cheap at 21 to buy, I suppose the expectation is for few goals, but if france lead and Croatia start chasing it could open up.

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On 7/12/2018 at 2:34 PM, harry_rag said:

Some similar haphazard number crunching for the last 10 finals as posted already for the 3rd place game.

Only 3 games saw >2.5 goals, West Germany losing 3-1 to Italy in 1982 and 3-2 to Argentina in 1986 and France beating Brazil 3-0 in 1998. Those games aside we've had 3 goalless draws (including the last 2 finals), 1 game with a single goal and 3 with 2. Average total goals were 1.9 and the average goal rush make up on the spreads was 22.3.

5 games were drawn, including the last 3 finals. There were the 3 0-0s and 2 1-1s. Only 2 went to penalties, 3 being won in extra time.

BTTS landed in just 4 of the 10 games.

The record of the 7 teams who had an extra day's rest is 2-5 and those teams who were taken to extra time/pens in the semis went 1-3. 

Cards wise, the average bookings make up for the last 10 games was 51.5. Most recent first, the bookings totals have been 40, 90, 30, 20, 65, 40, 90, 60, 50 and 30.

Just 6 goals were scored in the first half (31.58%) and 13 in the 2nd (68.42%). The 1st half has been the highest scoring on 2 occasions, the 2nd half on 4 with 4 ties.

3 games saw a goal (or more) in both halves, there were 6 half time 0-0s with 2 games seeing 1 goal before the break and the other 2 seeing 2.

The halftime/full time results (from the perspective of the winning team) have been as follows:

Draw - Draw x4
Draw - Win x3
Win - Win x2
Win - Draw x1

All good to know, thanks.

I was going to say that I thought the one ingredient missing here is the odds. I only have odds for the previous five WCs, and in those five, there was no favorite of under 2.00, as there is today. In the past five WC finals, there have been three draws, one win by the favorite (of 2.06) and one loss by the favorite of 2.35 (Brazil in 98).

I say "I was," because all week France has been sitting about 1.95 and Croatia at 4.75, and if anything I expected money to flow to France. However, in the past couple of hours, Croatia has dropped to 4.06 and France is at 2.11. I suspect draw makes the most sense if you're looking for action.

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croatia how pathetic the first half , offer a goal to france with own goal, very quickly and in an impressive manner comes back to 1-1 , and then offers an other goal to france with a stupid retarded handball.

 

2 goals gift to france in one half, pathetic clowns.

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VAR changes games. That was unfair on Croats while 1-1 since that was never a deliberate handball. The ref had no intention of giving it until harangued by the French. If you have enough whining the ref goes and watches the telly.

It has become like US football with protracted delays - it should be a quick decision game. Goal line tech is fine to see if ball crossed line but the VAR experiment in its current form is not ideal. (Wallet not talking - no bets on final).

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Any thoughts on the decision for the first goal being given as an own goal rather than being awarded to Griezmann?

It seems fair from the perspective that Griezmann intended it as a ball into the box rather than a shot on goal but still seems to breach the general principle that a goal is usually credited to the attacking player if it was "on target".

Any shot on target, how ever weak or clearly going to be saved or blocked, will be awarded to the attacking player if it takes a deflection off a defender, however "wicked" the deflection may be, the key point being that it was a shot and was on target.

Any free kick that is lofted into the box and ends up sailing or bouncing over everyone and goes in the net without being touched will be credited as a goal for the player who took it, as would Griezmann's if it had bypassed everyone.

So, is the only reason this was classed as an o.g. the reasonable assumption that the free kick was intended as a cross rather than a shot on goal?

I have no vested interest in this, it's just got me thinking.

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