F.A.B. Posted July 15, 2018 Author Share Posted July 15, 2018 11 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: It must have been a "little research" as for the SQRT betting to work you first have to be in profit which you are not. No it doesn't its just the SQRT of any profit added to a fixed stake In the old days people called it Alchemy .. trying to turn lead into gold , It didnt work then and wont work now Might sound a bit blunt but I'm honest , hit over 66% you make a profit , under 66% you lose......... end of . You put up any staking system you want Loss Recovery Normal Staking Level Staking Percentage Ratchet Staking VDW Staking Banded Staking Square Root Stepper Staking Labouchere Martingale Fibonnaci Kelly Staking Retirement Staking Plan Reverse Labouchere You will still lose money as your results do not hit the required 66%age win rate You state "Its all about the maths " so what part of that do you not understand I find your response somewhat rude. I joined the forum expecting it to be a group of friendly fellow punters but this does not seem to be the case. You don't know anything about me to try to insult my intelligence. The system does produce a good percentage of winners all i was asking was seeking and asking was which would be the best staking plan to make it a profitable system. If you wish to respond please keep the tone to something more respectful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F.A.B. Posted July 15, 2018 Author Share Posted July 15, 2018 7 hours ago, Escaping Captivity said: For someone who says they've been gambling for over 50 years, I find it bemusing that you base a system mainly on the strike rate. As for staking plans, unless a systems ROI% is at a decent level , level stakes is the only real option in my opinion. How many bets have you made using this system? Once again we have someone who feels the need to be disrespectful in their attitude. If you wish to comment please do not make them personal. I have produced a plan for producing regular winners which i have shared with everyone and was asking other punters their opinion on the best staking plan to implement it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, F.A.B. said: I find your response somewhat rude. I joined the forum expecting it to be a group of friendly fellow punters but this does not seem to be the case. You don't know anything about me to try to insult my intelligence. The system does produce a good percentage of winners all i was asking was seeking and asking was which would be the best staking plan to make it a profitable system.If you wish to respond please keep the tone to something more respectful. If being honest is disrespectful then so be it. But the fact still stands whether you like the answer or not Your strike rate is too low hence you will not make a profit ...END OF and no staking system will alter that only enhance losses. Quote If you wish to respond please keep the tone to something more respectful. HMMM someone else used to post on here and say similar thing when they didn't like other posters replies maybe your the reincarnation of Bob Patrick Edited July 15, 2018 by Valiant Thor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escaping Captivity Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 1 hour ago, F.A.B. said: Once again we have someone who feels the need to be disrespectful in their attitude. If you wish to comment please do not make them personal. I have produced a plan for producing regular winners which i have shared with everyone and was asking other punters their opinion on the best staking plan to implement it. You titled the thread "it's all about the maths" so where's the evidence to support this claim? I've asked you a couple of straightforward questions but you conveniently avoided them so I'm beginning to think this is some kind of wind-up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 13 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Might sound a bit blunt but I'm honest , hit over 66% you make a profit , under 66% you lose......... end of . VT is your statement based on FAB's system or generally ? 9 hours ago, Escaping Captivity said: I find it bemusing that you base a system mainly on the strike rate. VT have you something to say to EC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Xtc12 said: VT is your statement based on FAB's system or generally ? FAB's system he states he has a good sr 55% ish but as he needs 66% min to make a profit then the 55% sr is irrelevant as he will always lose money 10 minutes ago, Xtc12 said: VT have you something to say to EC. His statement was to FAB not me , Edited July 15, 2018 by Valiant Thor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 (edited) 53 minutes ago, keef75 said: This has a strike rate of about 37% - http://rdata.uk/q.php?k=A5MS0XKW5K0KCWOWGKSCKKO8W - surely you have to take into account the SPs? If 2 out of 10 10/1 shots come in then a 20% strike rate is profitable. You will find the reason this has a 36.96% win rate is purely the fact that you are backing odds at an average win price of around 2.71 @ level stakes You cannot simply replace 10/1 shots in as then you wouldn't have your 36.96% sr IF is a big word for 2 letters when used improperly and without just reasoning Edited July 15, 2018 by Valiant Thor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 Jesus guys, you are a tough audience. Think he thought he had found the holy grail, we all have been there. Public trials are brave and its a shame only a few of us give it a go. Its a pity as the forum will die along with the others without individual threads. Some good advice given here and hopefully F.A.B can use it wisely Backtest, Backtest, Backtest, Backtest a bit more and then publish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, BillyHills said: Jesus guys, you are a tough audience. Think he thought he had found the holy grail, we all have been there. Public trials are brave and its a shame only a few of us give it a go. Its a pity as the forum will die along with the others without individual threads. Some good advice given here and hopefully F.A.B can use it wisely Backtest, Backtest, Backtest, Backtest a bit more and then publish ....and papertrade going forward as well! (Backtest too much and you just end up backfitting!) Get your drift tho' BH. BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, BillyHills said: Jesus guys, you are a tough audience. I dont think so What would you have punters do, say its the greatest system ever created while letting him piss his money down the drain(if he actually backs them that is). Or give an honest opinion. Some people can take it some cant just like in real life, like the old saying "you can lead a horse to water..." As for the forum dying thats more to do with the age of Twatter and Fraudbook IMO I err on the side of "teach a man to fish" rather than "give a man a fish" , Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 Fair point VT and I have no problem with you at all, I'm all for saying it like it is. its just I try to encourage new members to stick around for more than a week or we will just end up a Competition based forum. We get enough guys that just pop in when a bit of cash is on offer. Nobody has time for a discussion anymore, or to afraid to stick their chest out. By the way, Its funny how that Bob disappeared the same time as GT keef75 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 (edited) 47 minutes ago, keef75 said: Sorry, I don't think I explained that too well, I wasn't simply replacing the 10/1 in the first example, it was an additional example, my point was that it is dependent on the SP. They are both interlinked each one needs the other SR < INV(ave win odds) = loss SR > INV(ave win odds) = profit Its finding the balance thats the hard part Edited July 15, 2018 by Valiant Thor grammer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 9 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: SR < INV(ave win odds) = loss SR > INV(ave win odds) = profit For us non mathematicians is the above stating : If your SR is greater than INV (average win odds ) you are on a winner ! INV ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Xtc12 said: For us non mathematicians is the above stating : If your SR is greater than INV (average win odds ) you are on a winner ! INV ?? Sorry its just a habit Ive got into when writing stuff down rather than doing the calculations in full INV = Inverse ie The inverse of 6/4 is 40% etc etc or you can use the MINVERSE function in excel Edited July 15, 2018 by Valiant Thor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F.A.B. Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 Despite some of the comments and i do understand where they are coming from I have to agree that a percentage of the bank and level stakes appears to be the best way forward. With this in mind I am going to put my money where my mouth is and start the new week with a bank of £200 with a bet of £5 on each selection at S.P. 2.00 Ayr Kilbarchan Coolagh Magic Nina Petrovna 2.45 Ripon Implicit Mayson Mac Moojim 3.20 Ripon Midnight Malibu Rosina Machree 4.20 Ripon Atkinson Grimshaw Mutadaffeq Sea Youmzain 4.40 Ayr Racemaker Sultan Baybars Smugglers Creek 5.50 Windsor Advanced Virgo Midnight Mood Epsom Secret BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F.A.B. Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 Results for Monday 16/07/18 L W 9/4 W 6/4 W 11/8 W 3/1 W 3/1 Nearly a full house and prices were a bit weak but hey ho 5 winning bets from 6 is not to be sniffed at. Stakes £90 Returns £80.62 Profit/Loss - £ 9.38 Bank c/f £190.62 Conclusion : Despite having 5 winners the S.P.'s were so poor that it negated any real profit and in fact resulted in a slight loss. Maybe early prices were the better option. That will be the plan tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F.A.B. Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Today's qualifying races and selections.......all early prices with Paddy Beverley 2.30 Groundworker 3/1 Arnold 4/1 Etienne Gerard 5/1 Chelmsford 2.50 Althaaqib 3/1 Awalili 3/1 Mutanaasib 3/1 Thirsk 8.40 Cascella 9/4 Forever a Lady 100/30 Arabian Jazz 100/30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F.A.B. Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 (edited) 13 hours ago, F.A.B. said: Today's qualifying races and selections.......all early prices with Paddy Beverley 2.30 Groundworker 3/1 Arnold 4/1 Etienne Gerard 5/1 Chelmsford 2.50 Althaaqib 3/1 Awalili 3/1 Mutanaasib 3/1 Thirsk 8.40 Cascella 9/4 Forever a Lady 100/30 Arabian Jazz 100/30 Results for Tuesday 17/07/18 W 9/2 L W 100/30 Stakes £45 returns £49.00 Profit/Loss + £4 Bank c/f £194.62 Edited July 17, 2018 by F.A.B. omitted information Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F.A.B. Posted July 18, 2018 Author Share Posted July 18, 2018 Qualifying races Wednesday 18/07/18 Uttoxeter 4.20 Ever So Much 100/30 Swingbridge 9/2 Zolfo 5/1 Killarney 5.25 Cache Queen 11/4 Eos 3/1 Power Drive 4/1 Fairyhouse 6.15 Coral Beach 2/1 Fulminate 11/4 Lord Rapscallion 9/2 Fairyhouse 6.45 Admirality 3/1 Zeeyalater 4/1 Pillar 6/1 Wolverhampton 8.35 Silver Character 9/4 Fitzsimmons 4/1 Refrain 11/2 Wolverhampton 9.05 Percy Prosecco 9/4 Lexington Empire 3/1 Javelin 7/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F.A.B. Posted July 18, 2018 Author Share Posted July 18, 2018 8 hours ago, F.A.B. said: Qualifying races Wednesday 18/07/18 Uttoxeter 4.20 Ever So Much 100/30 Swingbridge 9/2 Zolfo 5/1 Killarney 5.25 Cache Queen 11/4 Eos 3/1 Power Drive 4/1 Fairyhouse 6.15 Coral Beach 2/1 Fulminate 11/4 Lord Rapscallion 9/2 Fairyhouse 6.45 Admirality 3/1 Zeeyalater 4/1 Pillar 6/1 Wolverhampton 8.35 Silver Character 9/4 Fitzsimmons 4/1 Refrain 11/2 Wolverhampton 9.05 Percy Prosecco 9/4 Lexington Empire 3/1 Javelin 7/1 Results for Wednesday 18/07/18 L W 11/4 (SP 5/2) W 11/4 W 3/1(SP 9/4) L W 7/2 Stakes £90 Returns £80 Profit/Loss -£10 Bank c/f £184.62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F.A.B. Posted July 19, 2018 Author Share Posted July 19, 2018 Thursday's qualifying races and selections all early prices with Paddy Leicester 4.20 Delft Dancer 11/4 Sword of Gold 5/1 Arctic Spirit 5/1 Just the one qualifying race today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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